研究报告 Research Report 15 Jan 2026 李宁 LI NING (2331 HK) 4Q25 营运表现点评：4Q25 流水符合预期，上调 25 年净利率指引 4Q25 Operating Review: GMV in Line with Expectations; 25E Net Profit Margin Guidance Raised [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$19.55 目标价 HK$22.30 HTI ESG 0.8-2.2-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$50.53bn / US$6.48bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$42.39mn 发行股票数目 2,585mn 自由流通股 (%) 86% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$20.28-HK$13.96 注：现价 HK$19.55 为 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the data center sector, predicting global investments to reach at least $3 trillion over the next five years, driven by AI and major cloud providers [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of data center capacity driven by AI, with major U.S. companies expected to spend nearly $400 billion in 2025, with an additional $200 billion anticipated in the following two years [2][8]. - The report notes that the cost of supplying power to data centers has reached $6.5 billion, accounting for 40% of total auction costs in the latest capacity auction by PJM [2]. - The Texas power reliability council (ERCOT) has seen a surge in large load interconnection requests, increasing by approximately 300% to over 233 GW, with over 70% attributed to data centers [2]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by the energy market, including the freezing of offshore wind power projects, leading to significant daily losses for developers [2]. - MISO plans to invest about $1.2 billion in a new transmission line in Wisconsin as part of a long-term $22 billion transmission plan to strengthen the grid [2]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - Moody's forecasts that global data center investments will reach at least $3 trillion over the next five years, primarily driven by AI and major cloud providers [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the evolving financing models in capital markets, with institutional investors increasingly participating in lending during the construction phase [8]. - The report also highlights the rising construction costs due to increased prices for critical inputs like construction equipment and GPUs, which are expected to further elevate the costs of new data centers [8]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index increased by 5.49% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month as of September 2025, indicating a stable demand in the market [15]. - The report notes that the U.S. gas turbine market's future growth will be driven by re-industrialization and the development of AI data centers [17]. Global Energy Industry - The average retail electricity price in the U.S. as of October 2025 was 13.63 cents/kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% across various sectors [4]. - The report indicates that the U.S. electricity demand growth forecast has been revised upwards, with expectations of a 15.8% increase by 2029 [22]. Global New Materials - The report mentions that the global uranium spot price was $81.55 per pound as of December 2025, reflecting an 8% increase month-on-month and a 12% increase year-on-year [4]. Key Company Insights - The report suggests focusing on AI power operators such as Entergy, Talen Energy, and Constellation Energy, as well as energy equipment companies like Oklo and NuScale Power [5]. - It highlights the need for infrastructure improvements in the U.S. energy grid to support industrial return, AI data center construction, and decarbonization efforts [5]. - The report also points out that the demand for high-voltage transmission lines is expected to grow, with companies like Hitachi and Hyundai Electric being key players in this sector [5].

Employment Market Overview - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.4% in December, better than the expected 4.5%[6] - The unemployment rate for November was revised down to 4.5%, interrupting the previous upward trend[6] - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.4%, indicating reduced pressure on marginally employed groups[10] Job Creation and Market Conditions - Non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December, falling short of the market expectation of 65,000[19] - Job additions for October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from -105,000 to -173,000[19] - The average weekly hours worked decreased to 34.2 hours, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.6%[13] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has room to pause interest rate cuts in January, with a current market expectation of only a 5% probability for a rate cut[26] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, now pushed to June and September[26] Risks and Considerations - Political pressure from Trump could further threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[27]

美国通胀：延续温和 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月美国通胀并未出现市场此前所担忧的补偿性反弹，核心 CPI 增速反而不及预期。 结构上来看核心商品通胀温和，核心服务通胀有所回升。短期内美国通胀压力或仍 偏温和，不会对市场情绪以及美联储货币政策决定带来过多扰动。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.14 2026-01-14 [Table_Summary] 美国 12 月通胀：反弹幅度不及预期。数据公布前，市场普遍认为由 于政府关门导致 11 月通胀数据被低估，12 月通胀数据会出现补偿 性反弹。但 12 月美国 CPI 同比增速维持 2.7%，与 11 月持平；环比 增速维持 0.3%，与 9 月持平，并未出现明显回升。此外，核心 CPI 增速反而低于预期。其中核心 CPI 同比 2.6%（市场预期 2.7%，前值 2.6%），核心 CPI 环比 0.2%（市场预期 0.3%）。总体来看，12 月通胀 数据显示美国当前通胀压力仍较温和。 结构：商品偏弱 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Giant Biogene, with a target price of HK$43.60, indicating a potential upside of 22.0% from the current price of HK$35.74 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the recombinant collagen sector, highlighting its advantages in safety, efficacy, and sustainability, which are seen as fundamental drivers for industry growth [4][34]. - Giant Biogene has established itself as a leader in the recombinant collagen market, with a strategic shift towards brand development in 2026 [9][30]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 54.9 billion, RMB 59.9 billion, and RMB 66.9 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of -0.9%, 9.1%, and 11.8% [7][32]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 18.8 billion, RMB 20.0 billion, and RMB 22.1 billion, with growth rates of -9.0%, 6.6%, and 10.5% [7][32]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at approximately 80.5% in 2025, declining slightly to 79.2% by 2027 [7][32]. Brand and Product Strategy - Giant Biogene operates eight brands, with the core brands being Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, which contribute over 95% of the company's revenue [5][11][13]. - The company plans to launch a medical device and five skincare series in 2026, alongside a brand revamp for Keli Jin [6][30][31]. - The focus will be on expanding both online and offline channels, with plans to increase the number of physical stores and enhance partnerships with high-potential retailers [31][32]. Market Position and Challenges - The company faces short-term challenges due to discussions around the content and testing methods of recombinant collagen, which have impacted sales, particularly for the Kefu Mei brand [18][20][25]. - Despite these challenges, the company is adjusting its strategies, including enhancing online marketing and product offerings to stabilize and grow its market presence [25][29][30].

Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]

Economic Overview - The US economy shows resilience with a slight recovery in consumer confidence, as indicated by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 54.0 from 52.9[8] - The unemployment rate in the US decreased to 4.4% in December 2025, down from 4.5% in November 2025[8] - The manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 47.9, while the services PMI increased to 54.4, indicating mixed economic signals[8] Market Performance - Global risk assets mostly rose during the week of January 2-9, 2026, with commodities like London gold increasing by 4.1% and Brent crude oil by 3.7%[7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8%[7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5.7%, indicating a shift in bond market dynamics[7] Inflation and Policy Outlook - Inflation expectations in the US slightly increased, with the one-year inflation expectation at 4.2% remaining stable[8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in January 2026, supported by positive employment data[13] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain current interest rates amid mixed economic indicators[15] Risks and Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly related to Trump's administration and its foreign policy, continue to pose risks to market stability[15] - Commodity prices are sensitive to fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions, which could impact overall market performance[16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In Q4 2025, the new - issue market of public funds cooled down, but the issuance volume of FOF increased against the trend, and diversified allocation became the main development direction [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Whole - Market Overview - **New - issue Quantity and Scale Declined Quarter - on - Quarter**: In Q4 2025, 406 new funds were established, with a total raised scale of about 285.434 billion yuan and an average raised scale of about 703 million yuan. Compared with Q3 2025, the number of new - issue funds decreased by 71, the new - issue scale decreased by about 93.427 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale dropped by 11.48% quarter - on - quarter. The new - issue scale of equity funds and fixed - income funds decreased, while that of FOF increased significantly [3][6]. - **Distribution of New - issue Fund Types**: The proportion of the new - issue scale of FOF increased significantly. In Q4 2025, the new - issue scale of equity funds accounted for 49.71%, and that of fixed - income funds accounted for 26.29%, while the new - issue scale of FOF/MOM accounted for 15.85%, a significant increase of about 14.13 percentage points compared with the previous quarter [14]. - **All New - issue Funds Were Successfully Raised, and Subscription Days Slightly Extended**: In Q4 2025, all new - issue funds were successfully raised, and the average subscription days were 16.7 days, slightly higher than that in Q3 2025 but still at a relatively low level in the past three years [28][31]. 3.2 Product Development Trend Analysis - **Equity Products**: - **Passive Equity Funds**: In Q4 2025, 183 index equity funds were established, with a total issuance scale of about 81.679 billion yuan. The number and scale of new - issue funds decreased significantly compared with Q3 2025, and the average issuance scale also decreased [35]. - **Active Equity Funds**: In Q4 2025, 106 active equity funds were established, with a total raised scale of about 60.218 billion yuan, accounting for 42.44% of equity funds. The number, scale, and scale proportion of new - issue funds continued to rise [42]. - **Fixed - Income Products**: In Q4 2025, 61 fixed - income funds were newly issued, with a total raised scale of about 75.035 billion yuan, a decrease of 25 in number and about 66.989 billion yuan in scale compared with Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter decline of 47.17% [46]. - **FOF**: In Q4 2025, 42 FOF were established, with a total raised scale of about 45.246 billion yuan, a significant increase of about 38.714 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter. The average raised scale was about 1.077 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 693 million yuan. FOF products are evolving towards diversified allocation [52][53]. - **QDII Products**: In Q4 2025, 6 new QDII funds were established. Two Brazilian ETFs, Huaxia Bradesco Brazil Ibovespa ETF and E Fund Itau Brazil IBOVESPA ETF, were over - subscribed during the issuance process, indicating that the Brazilian market is attracting investors' attention [59]. - **Mutual Recognition Products**: In Q4 2025, 1 mutual recognition fund, BOC Hong Kong Global Equity Fund, was newly established, with an issuance scale of about 1.524 billion yuan, which is a stock - type fund [61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the development of dual and triple antibodies in multiple myeloma (MM) and recommends monitoring the progress of TCE monotherapy and combination therapies in MM, including the EMD population [1][15]. Core Insights - The 67th ASH Annual Meeting highlighted significant advancements in hematology, particularly in the treatment of multiple myeloma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) [31]. - In multiple myeloma, the Tec-Dara combination therapy demonstrated a 36-month overall survival (OS) rate of 83.3%, significantly higher than the 65.0% in the control group, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.46 [32]. - The MSD ROR1 ADC showed promising first-line potential in DLBCL, with 24-month OS and progression-free survival (PFS) rates of 94% and 84%, respectively, outperforming existing treatments [33]. - Eli Lilly's Pirto showed improved PFS and OS trends compared to BR, but the executive admitted it may not become the first-line choice for CLL/SLL due to limited follow-up data and current treatment practices favoring covalent BTK inhibitors [34]. Summary by Sections 1. R/R MM: Focus on Dual/Triple Antibodies and TCE Therapies - Johnson & Johnson's BCMA/CD3+daratumumab therapy received FDA's "National Priority Voucher," reducing review time to 1-2 months, showing excellent efficacy in high-risk patients [7][15]. - IBI3003 from Innovent demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 83.3% in high-risk patients, with a 100% minimal residual disease (MRD) negative rate in those achieving complete response (CR) [16]. - AstraZeneca's AZD0120 (BCMA/CD19 CAR-T) is projected to exceed $5 billion in sales, with a 100% ORR in treated patients [20][21]. 2. DLBCL: MSD ROR1 ADC Shows First-Line Potential - The MSD ROR1 ADC demonstrated a 24-month OS rate of 94% and a PFS rate of 84%, outperforming R-CHOP and Pola-CHP treatments [22][23]. - In high-risk populations, the ORR was 75% for patients with extramedullary disease (EMD), with a 100% ORR in the 1200 µg/kg dose group [23]. 3. CLL/SLL: Pirto May Not Become First-Line Choice - Pirto vs BR showed a 24-month PFS of 93.4% vs 70.7%, but the data is still immature, with a median follow-up of 28 months [25][27]. - The safety profile of Pirto indicated a 40% incidence of grade 3 or higher treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), compared to 67.4% for BR [25][27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 11.52 RMB based on a 15x PE for 2026, resulting in a target market value of 187.5 billion RMB [1][16]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in textile trade and the electrolyte sector, benefiting from the global restructuring of consumer goods supply chains and the recovery of the new energy industry. The core trading business maintains steady growth through global capacity layout, while the chemical new materials segment is expected to contribute to earnings elasticity due to increased orders from battery clients and improved supply structure [4][13]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 398.6 billion, 413.3 billion, and 425.4 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.3%, +3.7%, and +2.9% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 11.93 billion, 12.50 billion, and 13.07 billion RMB, with growth rates of +7.9%, +4.8%, and +4.5% respectively [14][15]. Business Overview - The company operates primarily in the textile trade, which accounts for over 90% of its revenue. The chemical business, while facing challenges, still plays a role in the overall performance. The trading segment is expected to grow steadily, while the chemical segment is projected to recover gradually as market conditions improve [25][19]. Supply Chain Strategy - The company has shifted towards a "world supply chain integration" model, with significant investments in overseas production facilities, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa. This strategy aims to mitigate external disruptions and ensure stable core orders [4][41]. New Energy and Materials Sector - The new energy materials segment, led by the subsidiary RuTai New Materials, is focused on lithium battery materials and organic silicon. The company anticipates a recovery in this sector as supply and demand dynamics improve, despite facing price pressures in the short term [20][4].