Domestic Macro - On November 14, Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss the implementation of the "two重" construction and measures to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods [5][8] - On November 17, Vice Premier He Lifeng co-hosted the fourth high-level financial dialogue between China and Germany, welcoming qualified companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to issue Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) in Frankfurt [5][19] - On November 18, Premier Li Qiang emphasized at the SCO meeting that increasing tariffs and trade barriers severely impact international trade order, calling for embracing free trade and reducing barriers [5][19] Industry Policy - On November 14, the People's Bank of China released the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures," effective from January 1, 2026, clarifying the scope of brokerage services [9][21] - On November 15, the State Administration for Market Regulation published a draft for public consultation on "Antitrust Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms," aiming to prevent abuse of market dominance [9][21] - On November 17, the Ministry of Commerce initiated a final review investigation of anti-dumping and countervailing measures on imported isopropanol from the U.S., continuing to impose anti-dumping duties of 254.4%-267.4% and countervailing duties of 34.2%-37.7% during the investigation [9][21] Local Policy - On November 15, Jiangsu Province raised the subsidy standard for automobile consumption renewal, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan [10][23] - On November 18, Beijing introduced a financial support plan to boost and expand consumption, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [10][23] - On November 20, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued a plan for the construction of a national digital economy innovation development pilot zone, aiming for the digital economy's core industry value-added to exceed 16% of GDP by 2027 [10][23] Overseas Dynamics - On November 14, China and Switzerland held the third round of negotiations to upgrade their free trade agreement, making progress on various trade-related topics [11][25] - On November 18, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order adjusting the application scope of "reciprocal tariffs," excluding certain agricultural products from additional tariffs [11][25] - On November 19, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic partnership agreement on artificial intelligence, with investments amounting to $270 billion [11][25]

Group 1 - The report indicates that northbound capital may experience significant net outflows, with an estimated net outflow of 18.3 billion yuan during the week of November 17-21, 2025, compared to a net outflow of 5 billion yuan the previous week [7] - The report highlights that the top active stocks in the northbound trading include Ningde Times, with a total transaction amount of 21.4 billion yuan, accounting for 15% of the stock's weekly trading volume [7] - In the Hong Kong market, there is a consistent inflow of value sectors amid risk aversion, with a total capital inflow of 5.6 billion HKD during the week of November 12-18, 2025 [11][13] Group 2 - In the Asia-Pacific market, foreign capital inflows were observed in Japan, with a net inflow of 521.9 billion yen during the week ending November 10, 2025, reversing a previous outflow of 321.4 billion yen [20] - The report notes that in October, foreign institutional investors invested 1.66 billion USD in the Indian stock market, compared to a net outflow of 2.7 billion USD the previous month [20] - In the US market, global mutual funds saw a net inflow of 2.55 billion USD into the US equity market in September, following a net outflow of 0.36 billion USD the previous month [23]

·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Nov 2025 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 12 期：区域回落，越南转涨 ASEAN Index Tracking: ASEAN sto ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing business optimization driven by product innovation, with visible results from recent reforms [1][4]. - The current share price is HK$6.72, with a target price set at HK$9.30, indicating a potential upside [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$9.93 billion (approximately US$1.28 billion) and has seen a significant decline in stock price over the past year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb 55.9 billion, 60.0 billion, and 65.5 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb 8.4 billion, 9.5 billion, and 10.8 billion [5]. - The company reported a revenue of Rmb 4.918 billion in 2024, with a 14% year-on-year decline, but is expected to recover with a 14% growth in 2025 [5][21]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 31.2% in 2024 to 33.1% by 2027 [5]. Business Model and Market Position - Sichuan Baicha Baidao is recognized as the third-largest ready-to-drink tea brand in China, holding an 8% market share based on GMV in 2023 [3][7]. - The company has expanded its store count to 8,465 globally, with 8,444 stores in China and 21 overseas [3][7]. - The brand has shifted its focus from supply-driven to demand-driven product development, significantly increasing the number of new product launches [4][13]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has implemented a dual-team approach in R&D to enhance product innovation, resulting in 55 new products launched in the first half of 2025 [4][27]. - Marketing strategies have transitioned from passive to proactive, with increased advertising expenditures leading to higher brand visibility [4][30]. - Operational adjustments include optimizing the franchise system and enhancing supply chain capabilities, which have contributed to improved store performance [4][51]. Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is entering an adjustment phase after years of rapid growth, with major brands focusing on internal improvements and exploring new product categories [14][19]. - The mid-priced beverage segment is particularly competitive, with a significant market share and a growing number of brands emerging [19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from regulatory changes that promote industry standardization and compliance, potentially increasing its market share [5]. - Plans to introduce new product categories, such as coffee, are underway to further enhance sales performance [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Miniso Group, with a target price of USD 26.60, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 19.57 [2][10]. Core Insights - Miniso's 3Q performance met guidance, with revenue of RMB 5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous guidance of 25%-28% [3][16]. - The company expects 4Q revenue growth of 25%-30%, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and the U.S. projected to be in the low double digits [3][9]. - For the full year 2025, Miniso anticipates a revenue growth rate of approximately 25% [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 21.4 billion, RMB 25.3 billion, and RMB 29.8 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 18%, and 18% [10][18]. - **Net Profit**: Adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 2.92 billion, RMB 3.41 billion, and RMB 4.08 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][18]. - **Gross Profit Margin**: The gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly from 44.8% in 2025 to 45.9% in 2027 [10][14]. Domestic Business Overview - Domestic revenue reached RMB 2.91 billion in 3Q, a 19% year-on-year increase, with 102 new stores added in the quarter [4][16]. - The company plans to open over 100 new stores in mainland China by 2025, focusing on channel upgrades and high-quality store openings [4][9]. International Business Overview - International revenue was RMB 2.31 billion, up 28% year-on-year, with 117 new stores added [5][16]. - The U.S. market showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by over 65% year-on-year [5][16]. TOPTOY Business Performance - TOPTOY reported revenue of RMB 575 million, a remarkable 111% increase year-on-year, with a significant improvement in same-store sales [8][16]. - The company plans to open 40-45 new TOPTOY stores by 2025 [8][16]. Valuation and Target Price - The report projects a target price of USD 26.60 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight adjustment from the previous target price of USD 27.30 [10][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Huazhu Group, Haidilao, and Miniso, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong revenue growth for Luckin Coffee, which reported Q3 revenue of 15.3 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, and a monthly active user count of 112 million, up 41% [2]. - Miniso's Q3 revenue reached 5.8 billion yuan, a 28.2% increase, exceeding previous guidance [2]. - Yum China plans to expand its store count significantly, targeting 20,000 stores by 2026 and 30,000 by 2030 [2]. - Haidilao is diversifying its offerings by entering the pizza and hamburger markets with new store openings [2]. - The report notes a strategic partnership between Haier Robotics and INDEMIND for developing home robotics [2]. Weekly Performance Summary - Green Tea Group saw a strong performance with a 5.5% increase in stock price, while Xiabu Xiabu and Nayuki experienced declines of 8.1% and 8.6% respectively [3][8]. - In the trendy toy sector, Pop Mart and Miniso both faced stock price declines of 7.9% and 8.5% respectively [5][8]. - The home appliance sector saw significant declines, with Joyoung down 15.6% and Dun'an Environment down 9.0% [5][8].

Investment Focus - The report indicates that after a completed correction phase, a rebound in the market is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, as liquidity pressures ease and external catalysts accumulate [1][6][14] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has retraced 60% of its year-to-date gains, while the STAR 50 has given back half of its rise, indicating a significant correction in the Chinese tech market [4][12] - A-share equity ETFs have seen a net inflow of RMB 6.1 billion in the first four days of the week, suggesting continued interest in the market despite recent declines [5][13] Market Conditions - U.S. equities have faced downward pressure, with expectations for a December Fed rate cut rising from 35% to 71%, which has influenced global market sentiment [2][10] - The report notes that the recent decline in U.S. tech stocks is primarily due to profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in the AI cycle, with optimism for AI demand remaining intact [3][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market has seen a decrease in turnover, with total turnover falling to RMB 1.7 trillion, indicating a consolidation phase before the next trend [4][12] Sector Analysis - The report expresses a positive outlook for the tech sector, particularly for the Hang Seng Tech Index and domestic compute names, supported by strong AI policy certainty in China [6][14] - The banking and insurance sectors have seen substantial rallies, but momentum is slowing, while the brokerage sector, which has had smaller year-to-date gains, may become a stabilizer in the market [6][14] - The report mentions that low-valuation consumption and property sectors are in a gradual upward channel, with potential upside supported by valuation and policy expectations [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Gushengtang, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [16]. Core Insights - Gushengtang announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Singapore's Da Zhong Tang, which operates 14 TCM clinics, aiming to enhance its market share and expand its business network in Singapore [5][6]. - The acquisition is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance in 2026, leveraging Da Zhong Tang's established brand and operational presence in key commercial areas of Singapore [6][7]. - The company plans to continue its overseas expansion through a combination of mergers and acquisitions, partnerships, and self-established clinics, targeting the addition of 10-20 new stores in Singapore and around 20 clinics in Hong Kong by 2026 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Gushengtang's acquisition of Da Zhong Tang will consolidate its financial results into the group's statements, enhancing its operational scale in Singapore [5][6]. Market Expansion Strategy - The company aims to expand its presence in Singapore through a mix of M&A, partnerships, and new clinic establishments, with a goal of generating significant overseas revenue by 2026 [7]. Operational Enhancements - Gushengtang plans to utilize its domestic supply chain for Chinese herbal products to support its overseas clinics, while enhancing internal treatment capabilities through AI technology and expert training [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, highlighting optimism regarding the launch of innovative products and overseas expansion [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue faced short-term pressure due to the consumption environment, with Q3 2025 revenue at RMB 570 million, down 21.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 300 million, down 34.6% year-on-year [2][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was RMB 1.86 billion, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.09 billion, down 31.1% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company has strong R&D capabilities and is focusing on the acquisition of South Korea's REGEN, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue and profit in 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 52.4%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The expense ratios increased due to profitability pressure, with sales expense ratio at 11.0% (+2.1 pp), administrative expense ratio at 4.9% (+0.2 pp), and R&D expense ratio at 10.1% (+3.3 pp) for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. Strategic Developments - The proposed acquisition of an 85% stake in REGEN for USD 190 million is expected to enhance the company's product portfolio with two marketed products: AestheFill and PowerFill [3][10]. - The company has also received approval for its minoxidil liniment, which will further enrich its product matrix [3][10].

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating; target price set at 149.21 RMB based on a 43x PE for 2026 [4][9][10] Core Insights - Overall performance meets expectations, with revenue slightly below forecasts; Q3 2025 revenue at 1.21 billion RMB, up 32.58% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders at 0.26 billion RMB, up 78.55% YoY [10][11] - Revenue changes attributed to seasonal order fluctuations, while overall profitability remains stable with a Q3 gross profit margin of 36.15% and a net profit margin of 22.83% [10][11] - Strong industry demand noted, with a focus on the progress of the MDC business, which has potential for better development in high-density optical connections [11][12] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 1.39 billion RMB, 2.79 billion RMB, and 4.05 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.39 billion RMB, 0.79 billion RMB, and 1.18 billion RMB [3][4] - EPS forecasted to be 1.72 RMB, 3.47 RMB, and 5.19 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] - The company maintains a stable profitability outlook with a projected ROE of 22.0% in 2025, increasing to 41.8% by 2027 [3][4]