Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 电力设备及新能源行业周报 产业周跟踪：光伏产业链价格持续修复，聚焦本 周 GTC 大会 投资要点： ➢ 锂电板块核心观点：锂电2月产销同比高增，4月车展将近酝酿旺季行 情。1）2月国内电池产销同比高增，铁锂装车占比81.5%；2）4月车展聚 焦创新，国内外车企积极推进新车型。 ➢ 光伏板块核心观点：组件价格持续上涨，25H1主材配额调整落地。3 月10-12日光伏硅料-组件环节主要企业在北京再度召开会议，对自律生 产，促进行业健康发展进行讨论。我们认为，随着去年10月以来行业自律 等的实施，当前产业链价格持续修复，同时受430/531节点国内分布式等 项目抢装影响，产业链价格有望进入趋势上涨窗口期。4-5月硅片、电池 等排产增加或将对上游产生一定拉动作用，硅料市场或将在下游需求拉动 下出现一定好转。 ➢ 储能板块核心观点：24年底甘肃新型储能累计装机超11GWh，内蒙古 25年新型储能专项行动累计装机容量约49GWh。1）24年底甘肃新型储能累 计装机4.42GW/11.41GWh，电力现货市场+辅助服务市场+容量租赁为主要 盈利模式；2）内蒙 ...

行 业 3 月 14 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年第四季度及全年财报。2024 年 第四季度，理想汽车共交付 158696 辆，同比增长 20.4%，收入为 443 亿元，同比增长 6.1%，净利润为 35 亿元，同比减少 38.6%。车辆毛利 率下滑是理想汽车净利减少的主要因素之一。2024 年第四季度理想汽 车单车毛利率由 2023 年同期的 22.7%下降至 19.8%。 未来理想汽车将在纯电动汽车和智能驾驶技术方面加大投入。理 想首款纯电 SUV 车型 i8 将于 7 月发布，i6 的发布时间则为今年下半 年。智驾方面，公司正在研发下一代 VLA(视觉-语言-行动)智驾大模型， 并计划与 i8 同时发布。L 系列和 MEGA 也会在今年推出智驾焕新版。 展望 2025 年第一季度，理想汽车预计，车辆交付量为 8.8 万至 9.3 万辆，同比增长 9.5%至 15.7%；收入总额为 234 亿元至 247 亿元，同 比减少 8.7%至 3.5%。 华福证券 本周行情 2025 年 3 月 10 日-3 月 14 日，汽车板块 0.8%，沪深 300 指数 1.6%， 汽车板块跑输沪深 300 指数 0 ...

行 业 研 究 传媒 2025 年 03 月 16 日 海外 Agent 框架：Claude+Cursor+MCP 投资要点： AI Agent 行业的最新发展已形成"基座模型（强代码能力模型）+操 作平台（作为客户端）+万能接口（MCP 搭建桥梁）"的框架逻辑。 一、Agent 基座模型-Claude：代码能力强，在 Agent 领域具优势 行 业 动 Agent 领域，Anthropic 入局早，产品能力强。24 年 10 月 23 日， Anthropic 率先推出包含 Agent 功能 computer use 的 Claude 3.5 sonnet； 11 月公司推出 MCP 开放协议。 态 跟 踪 Claude 代码能力已经领先于众多顶级模型：据 AI 智企报道，在 Web 开发能力方面，最新的 Claude 3.7 理论上能够解决超过 70%的真 实 GitHub 问题，超过其他竞品；在软件工程基准中，OpenAI o3 mini high 和 DeepSeek 均远低于 Claude 3.7。 二、Agent 操作平台-Crusor：深度融合 AI Cursor 深度融合 AI，在 IDE 赛 ...

投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】春节整体基本面或处于底部待反转区间，同时节后白酒企业密集 停止发货，预计停货对价格的支撑在短期内即可显现，后续价格预期积极， 需求端复苏或缓释销售端压力。白酒作为顺周期板块，预期带动估值修复 往往先于基本面，估值具备较强安全边际和配置属性。建议关注可攻可守 的山西汾酒，保价控量、具备降维打击、市占率提升能力的茅台、五粮液 以及受益于婚宴回补的古井贡酒、今世缘、迎驾贡酒。 行 华福证券 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 复苏预期持续强化，白酒进入估值修复阶段 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】百润股份作为预调酒行业龙头企业，公司历史行情通常为大单 品所驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，目前公司威士忌 已正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 37 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来 ...

行 华福证券 医药生物 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 医药生物 眼底病基因治疗：单次给药替代长期注射，国内 关注康弘药业 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 3 月 10 日- 2025 年 3 月 14 日）中信医药指 数上涨 1.9%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.3 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 14 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 4.0%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.1 pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 16 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：金城医 药（+42.43%）、塞力医疗（+34.47%）、老百姓（+22.47%）、达嘉维康 （+21.14%）、康芝药业（+20.50%）。 眼底病基因治疗技术：单次给药替代长期注射，国内关注康弘药业：由于 眼部具有血视网膜屏障、体积较小因而需要的治疗剂量相对较低、且具有免疫 豁免特性，因而是基因治疗应用的理想组织，目前全球在研基因治疗项目超过 1000 个，涵盖 30 种眼部疾病。目前眼科市场中以眼底新生血管疾病（如 AMD 等）为主的视网膜疾病全球市场规模接近 200 亿美元，且仍处于增长中。而传 ...

家用电器 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 电动自行车以旧换新成效显著，1-2 月扫地机数 据靓丽——25W11 周观点 行 投资要点： 电动自行车以旧换新成效显著，1-2 月扫地机数据靓丽 告 电动自行车以旧换新成效显著。根据中国经济网援引的商务部数 据，截至 3 月 11 日，今年全国电动自行车售旧、换新 166.4 万辆，超 过 2024 年总和（2024 年以旧换新从 9 月开始），相当于 2024 年工作 总量的 120.4%，累计补贴 10.0 亿元，人均约 600 元，拉动新车销售 45.1 亿元，惠及 4.7 万家销售门店。 国补无缝衔接带动扫地机品类延续亮眼表现。根据奥维云网，受 春节错期影响，1-2 月线上销售呈现前高后低趋势，从可比口径来看， 1-2 月扫地机线上销额 19.16 亿元，同比+72%，线上销量 58.75 万台， 同比+58%，均价为 3261 元，同比+9%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅+1.7%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别+2.2%/-0.6%/+2.3%/+3.1%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses continued optimism for the military industry, highlighting a 2.57% increase in the Shenwan Military Index (801740) compared to a 1.59% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an excess return of 0.98 percentage points [2][43]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes "deep-sea technology" as a new emerging industry, which has positively impacted related stocks [3][43]. - The macro-level focus on completing the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate improvements in the industry's fundamentals [3][44]. - The report notes a slight decrease in financing buy-in amounts, but an increase in military ETF fund sizes and shares, indicating stable confidence from passive funds in the military sector [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Military Index increased by 2.57% during the week of March 10-14, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.98 percentage points [10][17]. - Since May 2024, the Shenwan Military Index has risen by 22.96%, while the CSI 300 Index has increased by 11.16%, resulting in an excess return of 11.8 percentage points [19][10]. - The engine sector performed the best this week, with significant gains from stocks like Baotai Co., which rose by 21.07% due to the "deep-sea technology" theme [24][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional main battle equipment and high-elasticity sectors that will cross the "15th Five-Year Plan" cycle [45][47]. - Key companies to watch include: - Traditional Equipment: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and others [47]. - High Elasticity Directions: Commercial engines, materials, information technology, low-cost drones, and controlled nuclear fusion [47]. Valuation and Funding - As of March 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Index is 63.72, with a percentile rank of 86.27%, indicating a high configuration value despite some valuation increases [4][45]. - The report notes that passive funds have shown a net inflow of 949 million yuan into military ETFs, reflecting strong confidence in the sector [30][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" with a target of outperforming the market benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [12][56]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pressure on asset quality has been released, and concerns regarding the bank's annual performance and dividends have been alleviated, suggesting that negative sentiment may have peaked [12]. - The bank's net profit growth for Q4 2024 decreased by 29.9%, with a significant increase in provisions amounting to approximately 17.4 billion yuan compared to Q4 2023 [3][4]. - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% as of the end of 2024, unchanged from Q3 [4][11]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Review - Revenue growth for Q4 2024 was -5.3%, a narrowing decline compared to Q3, primarily due to a rapid decline in interest rates and a 123% year-on-year increase in non-interest income from bond investments [2][3]. - The net profit growth for Q4 2024 was -29.9%, with a provision of approximately 17.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in provisions compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06% and a focus on improving retail loan quality [4][11]. Full Year 2024 Performance Review - In 2024, Ping An Bank focused on optimizing its asset structure and reducing high-risk retail assets, leading to a contraction in loan scale and a significant decline in net interest margin [5][11]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 27%, reflecting the bank's consideration of capital adequacy and reasonable dividend levels [5]. 2025 Operational Outlook - The bank is expected to see a marginal recovery in performance in 2025, with loan growth anticipated to return to normal levels as consumer demand recovers [6][11]. - The decline in net interest margin is expected to narrow significantly, with improvements in asset quality and a reduction in high-risk retail assets [11][12]. - Revenue growth projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, while net profit growth is projected at 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Bank, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [12][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pressure on asset quality and provisioning has been released in Q4 2024, suggesting that market concerns regarding the bank's annual performance and dividends have been alleviated [12]. - It is anticipated that the bank's performance will marginally recover in 2025, with loan growth expected to return to normal levels due to the recovery of consumer demand and the increase in mid-risk product offerings [6][11]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance Review - In Q4 2024, revenue growth rate was -5.3%, a narrowing decline compared to Q3, primarily due to a rapid decline in interest rates and a 123% year-on-year increase in non-interest income from bond investments [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.9% in Q4 2024, with a significant increase in provisioning of approximately 17.4 billion yuan compared to Q4 2023 [3][4]. - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.06% at the end of 2024, unchanged from Q3 [4]. Full Year 2024 Performance Review - Throughout 2024, Ping An Bank focused on optimizing its asset structure and reducing high-risk retail assets, leading to a contraction in loan scale and a significant decline in net interest margin [5][11]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was set at 27%, reflecting the bank's consideration of capital adequacy and reasonable dividend levels [5]. 2025 Operational Outlook - The bank's loan scale at the end of 2024 was 3,374.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the end of 2023, but a recovery in loan growth is expected in 2025 [6][11]. - The net interest margin decline is projected to narrow significantly, with the bank's credit cost improving by 29 basis points year-on-year to 1.56% in 2024 [11][12]. - Revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are forecasted at -5.5%, 3.7%, and 7.0%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.1%, 4.6%, and 7.8% [11][49].

行 华福证券 公用事业 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 公用事业 周报（3.10-3.14）：央企押宝新疆能源基地，绿 电交易首次跨越两网，CCER 目标 2030 国际接 轨 投资要点： 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 行情回顾：3 月 10 日-3 月 14 日，环保、燃气、水务和电力板块分别上涨 2.63%、2.22%、2.17%、1.80%，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%。 告 电力央企发力新疆，掀起千亿级建设高潮：3 月 12 日，新疆与 18 家中央 企业共同在北京举行产业兴疆重点项目 2025 年投资推进会。会议上，新疆分 别与华润集团、中核集团、华能集团、华电集团、国家电投集团、东方电气集 团、中国电建集团签署项目合作意向书，涉及项目 54 个，预计在疆完成产业 投资超 1300 亿元，涵盖能源、新型储能、智算中心、装备制造等领域。其中， 华润集团积极推进"疆电外送"第三通道天山北麓 6.1GW "沙戈荒"基地建 设；中核集团总签约项目 20 个，总投资 342.38 亿元；华能 ...