2025 年 04 月 02 日 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：50 分（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 50 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-04-01 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-03-31 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-03-28 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 今日热点主题：医疗器械、脑机接口、AI 1、医疗器械主题：国家药监局公开征求《关于优化全生 命周期监管 支持高端医疗器械创新发展的举措（征求意见 稿）》意见。加快发布医用外骨骼机器人、放射性核素成像 设备等相关标准。加快推进医用机器人、人工智能医疗器 械、高端医学影像设备等领域的基础、通用标准和方法标准 等制修订工作。相关标的：联影医疗（688271）、迈瑞医疗 （300760） 2、脑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has successfully launched its 115,000 tons/year adipic acid expansion project, leading to a year-on-year increase in the production and sales of basic chemical products [5] - Despite a decline in profits due to falling prices of major products, the company is expected to see strong performance growth driven by new capacity releases [9] - The company aims to achieve integration in the polyurethane industry and become a world-class leader in polyurethane materials [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price is currently at 7.74 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 38.4 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 26.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43% [4] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.559 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.87%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, down 62.66% year-on-year [4] Production and Sales - Chemical fiber production in 2024 was 357,400 tons, up 5.26% year-on-year, with sales of 368,200 tons, up 12.29% year-on-year [5] - Chemical new materials production was 657,100 tons, up 1.92% year-on-year, with sales of 425,500 tons, up 2.43% year-on-year [5] - Basic chemical products saw production of 1,681,000 tons, up 31.14% year-on-year, and sales of 1,365,700 tons, up 28.52% year-on-year, attributed to the new adipic acid expansion project [5] Cost Structure and R&D - The company optimized its cost structure, with R&D expenses contributing to maintaining its technological leadership and enhancing product competitiveness [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen its main business, pursue moderate diversification, and drive innovation to enhance its integrated operations in the polyurethane industry [7][8] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.636 billion, 3.234 billion, and 3.658 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.6, 11.9, and 10.5 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to oil price fluctuations and energy transition, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [3][4] - Despite challenges in the oil and gas sector, the company continues to invest heavily in exploration and production, ensuring future resource availability [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share, reflecting a dividend yield of 4.28%, which underscores its investment value [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3,074.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.31 billion yuan, down 16.79% year-on-year [3][4] - The average selling prices for gasoline and diesel fell by 1.4% and 5.5% respectively, while sales volumes decreased by 0.7% and 4.8% [4] Business Segments - The company's natural gas sales volume increased by 10% to 40,805 million cubic meters, with an average price rise of 3.4% to 2,230 yuan per thousand cubic meters, but this growth could not offset losses from refined oil products [4] - Chemical segment revenue grew by 1.7% to 523.9 billion yuan, driven by increases in organic chemicals and synthetic fibers [4] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 1,643 billion yuan in capital expenditures for 2025, focusing on oil and gas production capacity and exploration projects [5][6] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 57.8 billion, 63.8 billion, and 63.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.0, 10.9, and 10.9 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to oil price fluctuations and energy transition, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [3][4]. - Despite challenges in the oil and gas sector, the company continues to invest heavily in exploration and production, ensuring a steady increase in reserves and output [5][6]. - The company is set to distribute dividends, highlighting its investment value and commitment to shareholder returns [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 30,745.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 503.13 billion yuan, down 16.79% year-on-year [3][4]. - The average price for gasoline and diesel per ton decreased by 1.4% and 5.5%, respectively, while sales volumes also declined [4]. - Natural gas sales volume increased by 10% to 40,805 million cubic meters, with an average price rise of 3.4% to 2,230 yuan per thousand cubic meters [4]. Capital Expenditure and Production - The company allocated 82.3 billion yuan for capital expenditure in 2024, focusing on significant breakthroughs in exploration projects [5][6]. - Oil and gas equivalent production reached 515.35 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a final cash dividend of 0.14 yuan per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of 0.29 yuan and an expected dividend yield of 4.28% [7][8]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 577.99 billion yuan, 638.08 billion yuan, and 635.30 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.0, 10.9, and 10.9 [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched its 115,000 tons/year adipic acid expansion project, leading to a year-on-year increase in the production and sales of basic chemical products [5] - Despite a decline in profits due to falling prices of major products, the company is expected to see strong performance growth driven by new capacity releases [9] - The company aims to achieve integration in the polyurethane industry and become a world-class leader in polyurethane materials [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 7.74 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 38.4 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 26.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43% [4] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.559 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.87%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.66% [4] Production and Sales - Chemical fiber production in 2024 was 357,400 tons, up 5.26% year-on-year, with sales of 368,200 tons, up 12.29% year-on-year [5] - Chemical new materials production was 657,100 tons, up 1.92% year-on-year, with sales of 425,500 tons, up 2.43% year-on-year [5] - Basic chemical products saw production of 1,681,000 tons, up 31.14% year-on-year, and sales of 1,365,700 tons, up 28.52% year-on-year, attributed to the new adipic acid expansion project [5] Cost Structure and R&D - The company optimized its cost structure, with R&D expenses contributing to maintaining its technological leadership and product competitiveness [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to strengthen its main business, pursue moderate diversification, and drive innovation to enhance its integrated operations in the polyurethane industry [7][8] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.636 billion yuan, 3.234 billion yuan, and 3.658 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.6, 11.9, and 10.5 [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in raw milk business and effective cost control, with a revenue increase of 7.5% year-on-year to 20.1 billion yuan in 2024, despite a net loss of 6.91 billion yuan due to non-cash items [5][6][9] - The cash EBITDA increased significantly by 38.3% to 5.325 billion yuan, with a cash EBITDA margin of 26.5%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The raw milk business revenue reached 15.101 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase, contributing 75.1% to total revenue, with total raw milk production rising by 24.2% to 3.75 million tons [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] - The adjusted profit showed a strong performance, with cash EBITDA of 5.325 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 38.3% [5] - The gross margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 28.8% [5] Business Segments - The raw milk segment experienced robust growth, with revenue of 15.101 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase, and total production of 3.75 million tons, up 24.2% [6] - The feed solutions segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue declining by 13.7% to 4.995 billion yuan [7] - The premium feed business saw a 44.5% increase in sales for beef and sheep, indicating a breakthrough in non-dairy feed markets [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in raw milk prices and an increase in production, with projected revenues of 21.856 billion yuan, 22.886 billion yuan, and 23.642 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.06 yuan in 2025 to 0.23 yuan in 2027 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in raw milk business and effective cost control, with a revenue increase of 7.5% year-on-year to 20.1 billion yuan in 2024, despite a net loss of 6.91 billion yuan due to non-cash items [5][6] - The cash EBITDA increased significantly by 38.3% to 5.325 billion yuan, with a cash EBITDA margin of 26.5%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The raw milk business revenue reached 15.101 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase, contributing 75.1% to total revenue, with total raw milk production rising by 24.2% to 3.75 million tons [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [5] - The adjusted profit showed a strong performance, with cash EBITDA of 5.325 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 38.3% [5] - The gross margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 28.8%, while the selling and administrative expense ratios slightly decreased [5] Business Segments - The raw milk segment experienced robust growth, with revenue of 15.101 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase, and total raw milk production reaching 3.75 million tons [6] - The company optimized its cost structure, reducing feed costs by 14.3% to 2.10 yuan per kilogram [6] - The solutions segment faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 13.7% to 4.995 billion yuan [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in raw milk prices and an increase in production, with projected revenues of 21.856 billion yuan, 22.886 billion yuan, and 23.642 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.06 yuan in 2025 to 0.23 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9][11]

2025 年 04 月 01 日 转债年报预告掘金（一） 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 事件 截至 3 月 25 日，共 246 家转债发行人披露中报业绩预告，其 中 80 家预喜。披露预告公司在 3 家以上的行业中：农业、食 饮、汽车预喜率较高，分别为 85%、66%、58%；计算机、军 工、电力设备、建材、钢铁、有色、建筑、轻工、电子、化 工预亏比例在 70%以上。业绩大幅上升共 49 家，集中在医药 （6 家）、汽车（6 家）、电力设备（5 家）、电子（5 家）、化工（5 家）、机械设备（4 家）、农业（4 家）、轻 工（3 家）等行业。大部分行业 2024 年业绩以大幅下降为 主，披露预告公司在 3 家及以上的行业中，家电（67%的公司 业绩大幅下降，下同）、建材（44%）、轻工（36%）、军工 （33%）、食饮（33%）、化工（31%）电力设备（24%）、计 算机（23%）业绩大幅下降的公司最多。 部分公司的转债在强赎中，如朗科转债、沿浦转债，部分有 强赎风险，如 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth and brand momentum, with 2024 revenue reaching 5.124 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 10% to 494 million yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights the impact of product structure changes on gross margin, with a decrease of 7 percentage points to 26.03% in Q4 2024, while the dividend payout ratio increased to 55% [5]. - The mooncake segment generated 1.636 billion yuan in revenue, a 2% decline, but maintained stable pricing, indicating strong brand momentum [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a "big year" for mooncakes in 2025, alongside continued growth in the restaurant business, which saw a 15% increase in revenue to 1.455 billion yuan in 2024 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 51.24 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.94 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% decrease [4]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 10.21 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.4%, and net profit decreased by 22% to 460 million yuan [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.00 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 13 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][10]. - The forecasted revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 9.4%, 9.1%, and 7.3% respectively, while net profit is expected to grow by 15% in 2025 [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage in Guangdong to strengthen its market share in mooncakes and frozen products, with plans to expand into other provinces [7]. - The restaurant segment is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory through new store openings and increased market penetration [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth and brand momentum, with a reported revenue of 5.124 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 10% to 494 million yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment in 2025, particularly in the mooncake segment, which is projected to see revenue growth due to the upcoming "big year" for mooncakes [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 51.24 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.94 billion yuan, and a decrease in net profit margin to 4.26% [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin decreased by 7 percentage points to 26.03% in Q4 2024, attributed to changes in product structure [5]. Product Segments - Mooncake revenue for 2024 was 1.636 billion yuan, down 2%, with sales volume at 16,000 tons [6]. - The frozen food segment generated 1.03 billion yuan in revenue, a 3% decrease, while the restaurant business grew by 15% to 1.455 billion yuan [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.00 yuan in 2025, 1.11 yuan in 2026, and 1.18 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times [7][10].