- The "XinXuan ETF Absolute Return Strategy" utilizes a "drawer method" to test equity ETFs in the market, aiming for both absolute returns and long-term relative returns compared to A-share equities. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 14.23% over the past three years, with a maximum drawdown of 8.6% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.44 during in-sample testing. From 2024 to date, the strategy's total return is 32.01%, outperforming equal-weighted ETFs by 17.98%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.16, maximum drawdown of 6.3%, and volatility of 17.9%[11][30] - The "All-Weather Multi-Asset Multi-Strategy ETF Risk Parity Strategy" combines industry rotation, style rotation, and size rotation strategies to enhance ETF precision and returns. It employs risk parity to reduce portfolio volatility by diversifying assets across commodities (e.g., gold ETFs), U.S. equities (e.g., S&P 500 ETFs), domestic equities, and domestic bonds (e.g., 10-year and 30-year government bond ETFs). The strategy achieved a return of 18.81% from 2024 to date, with a maximum drawdown of 3.62%, volatility of 4.49%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.49[14][16][30] - The "China-US Core Asset Portfolio" integrates four strong-trend assets (white liquor, dividends, gold, and Nasdaq) using RSRS timing and technical reversal strategies. From 2015 to date, the portfolio achieved an annualized return of 33.85%, outperforming equal-weighted indices by 14.45%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.63, maximum drawdown of 18.23%, and volatility of 17.89%[20][30] - The "High Prosperity/Dividend Rotation Strategy" alternates between high-growth and dividend-focused ETFs based on signals. For high-growth signals, it allocates 50% to the ChiNext ETF and 50% to the STAR 50 ETF. For dividend signals, it allocates to low-volatility dividend ETFs and central SOE dividend ETFs. From 2021 to date, the strategy achieved an annualized return of 19.13%, outperforming equal-weighted indices by 21.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.86, maximum drawdown of 22.91%, and volatility of 24.27%[23][30] - The "Dual Bond LOF Enhanced Strategy" adjusts weights between dual bond LOFs and other assets (e.g., Nasdaq, white liquor, and CSI Dividend ETFs) based on weekly volatility normalization. This approach increases bond weight due to their lower volatility. From 2019 to date, the strategy achieved an annualized return of 6.81%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.56, maximum drawdown of 2.42%, and volatility of 2.57%[26][30] - The "Structured Risk Parity Strategy (QDII)" replaces the XinXuan ETF pool with a mix of domestic long-term bond ETFs, QDII equity products, gold, and domestic dividend ETFs. From 2024 to date, the strategy achieved a return of 22.52%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.38%, volatility of 4.94, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.75[27][29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as butadiene (up 21.98%) and styrene (up 12.11%), while products like liquid chlorine and p-nitrochlorobenzene saw notable declines [4][18]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets due to the current international oil price stabilization and geopolitical uncertainties [6][19]. - The report emphasizes the mixed performance across different sub-sectors within the chemical industry, with some sectors like tires and lubricants showing better-than-expected results [21]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI at $61.62 per barrel and Brent at $64.53, reflecting a 2.85% and 2.69% increase respectively [6][22]. - The downstream demand has shown a noticeable decline, particularly in the propane market, which has seen a price drop of 1.43% [25]. - The coking coal market has experienced a price decline of 1.87% due to limited steel demand and expectations of reduced production [26]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted in butadiene, styrene, and hydrochloric acid, while liquid gas and natural gas prices fell [4][18]. - The PTA market saw a rise, with prices increasing by 6.74% in the East China market, driven by strong demand and rising costs [30]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Companies such as Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, and Sinopec are highlighted for their strong earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, making them attractive investment options [10]. - The report suggests that companies in the tire industry, such as Senqilin and Sailun Tire, are well-positioned to benefit from global trade dynamics and tariff exemptions [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings, as well as domestic fertilizer production which is less affected by tariffs [21][8]. - It also highlights the potential of high-dividend stocks in the oil sector, particularly Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, as attractive investment options in the current market environment [6][21].

2025 年 05 月 19 日 高评级转债性价比分析 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《2025 年转债如何为固收＋提供 增益》2024-12-31 2、《转债定价特征变化及展望》 2024-12-12 3、《转债持续调整之后的结构性机 会》2024-09-07 —固定收益深度报告 投资要点 ▌公募高质量发展叠加小盘成长行情缺乏持续性， 转债市场交投热度偏低 近期转债市场风险偏好极低，双高炒作券、低评级、小票、 次新债交易热度处于历史低位。估值方面，转股溢价率和隐 含波动率均有主动小幅调整。市场主动给予类似纯债的低价 转债更多估值，即市场更偏好转债的债性避险属性，而非低 估值转债的弹性。此外，公募等机构在高质量发展约束下， 强化业绩基准对标，对银行转债等高评级低波品种更为增 配，减少对中小盘转债的主动交易。而对于交易型投资者而 言，行业快速轮动的市场中，更加偏向于博取股票、ETF 等 高弹性资产。 ▌高评级转债性价比分析 转债市场替代性优质资产稀缺。AAA、A ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 腾讯资本开支高增，AI 智能体产业持续发展 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) 7.4 -4.1 3.5 沪深 300 3.1 -0.6 5.7 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：OpenAI 计 划加大海外投资，持续看好 AIDC 环 节》2025-05-12 ▌ 投资观点 从板块来看，我们认为柴发依然是量利齐升且逻辑最顺的板 块，推荐关注潍柴重机，其次建议关注渗透率逐步提升的 HVDC 环节，推荐关注科华数据、通合科技，最后建议关注伴 随功率提升而受益的服务器电源以及液冷环节，推荐关注英 维克（新能源车组覆盖）、申菱环境（新能源车组覆盖）、 欧陆通。 对电力设备板块维持"推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is experiencing a demand bottoming out, with overall business demand under pressure and banquet demand showing differentiation. Companies are adopting conservative targets for 2025 and actively reducing channel burdens while stabilizing inventory [5]. - The report highlights the low overall valuation of the liquor sector, with many companies engaging in buybacks or increasing holdings, and dividend payouts continuing to rise [5]. - In the mass consumer goods sector, companies are focusing on health-oriented products and enhancing supply chain flexibility. The report notes that the mass consumer goods sector is expected to continue its recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - From January to April, liquor prices decreased by 2% year-on-year. The export value of Ningxia wine reached 13.75 million yuan in 2024 [17]. - Guizhou Moutai's sales through mainstream e-commerce channels grew over 30% in the first four months of the year [17]. Company News - The report discusses various companies, including Moutai, Langjiu, and Xijiu, focusing on their strategies for production stability, quality enhancement, and market expansion [17]. - It mentions that the company Huazhi Jiuhang is emphasizing long-term strategies and digital marketing to enhance its online and offline sales networks [5]. Key Company Feedback - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Luzhou Laojiao, Moutai, and Wuliangye, all rated as "Buy" [9]. - The report notes that the liquor industry generated revenue of 756.3 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [33]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance over the past month shows a slight increase of 0.3%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 3.1% [3]. - The report includes various charts illustrating the performance of different segments within the food and beverage industry, highlighting trends in liquor production and revenue [33][36].

分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 关税短期冲击减弱，出海仍是主要趋势 医药行业周报 | 投资评级： | 推荐 （ 维持 ） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025年05月19日 | 1. 出海仍是主要趋势，关税短期冲击减弱 根据医保商会统计，2025年Q1，医药出口额为266.32亿美元，同比增长4.39%，其中对美出口46.39亿美元，同比增长 9.6%，美国仍为中国出口的第一大单体市场，占比17.4%。医药虽然有部分被豁免，但仍非豁免品种受到关税的冲击，5月 12日之后，美国订单有望显著恢复。医药交易方面，根据医药魔方数据，2025年Q1，中国医药交易数量同比增加34%，交 易总金额同比增加222%。美国制药企业也是全球医药交易的主要受让方，美国市场是全球最大的创新药市场，未来增长可 能受到政策的干扰，但考虑美国商业保险模式占据主导，而且医疗体制改革需要长周期布局，创新药高度市场化定价机制 仍将维持。近年来，中国创新药的研发效率和质量得到迅速提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [9][41]. Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing stable overall performance, with domestic demand being supported by new vehicle cycles and "old-for-new" policies, leading to a significant increase in consumption [7][8]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) have shown rapid growth, with NEV sales accounting for 42.7% of total new vehicle sales in April [8]. - The collaboration between companies like Tesla, UBTECH, and Weijiang with model manufacturers is expected to accelerate advancements in humanoid robots and their applications in various sectors [6][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has outperformed the market, with a 10.1% increase over the past month and a 27.4% increase over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 3.1% and 5.7% respectively [3][16]. - In April, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several key companies for investment: - Recommended companies in the humanoid robot sector include Shuanglin Co. and Rongtai Co. [9][41]. - For linear joint assemblies, Shuanglin Co. and Dechang Electric Holdings are recommended [9][41]. - In the sensor sector, KAIT Co. is recommended, with attention to Lingyun Co. and Anpeilong [9][41]. Market Trends - The report notes that the automotive industry is benefiting from the increasing penetration of intelligent driving technologies and the integration of robotics, which are expected to drive further growth [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-controlled equipment manufacturers in the humanoid robot sector, predicting that those with strong R&D capabilities will have a higher chance of success [6][9]. Company Announcements - The report includes updates on company activities, such as Top Group's acquisition of Wuhu Changpeng Auto Parts Co. and the restructuring of NIO's brand divisions [43][50].

2025 年 05 月 19 日 关注茅台股东大会，小食品持续向好 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) 0.3 6.7 -8.4 沪深 300 3.1 -0.6 5.7 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：降息"靴 子落地"，利好市场情绪提振》 2025-05-11 2、《食品饮料行业周报：年报季顺 利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期》 2025-05-06 3、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，整体反馈符合预期》2025- 04-28 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）1-4 月酒类价格同比下降 2%；2） 宁夏葡萄酒 2024 出口额达 1375 万元；3） 泸州：积极促进酒旅深度融 合； 公司新闻：1） ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a composite score of 57, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [2][10]. - Recent market trends show a gradual upward movement supported by improved market sentiment and policy backing [10]. Market Themes Tracking - **Solid-State Battery Theme**: The 17th Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exchange and Exhibition (CIBF2025) is scheduled from May 15 to 17, focusing on advanced lithium-ion battery technologies and solid-state batteries. Related companies include Haishun New Materials (300501) and Guoxuan High-Tech (002074) [7]. - **Big Data Theme**: The State Council has approved a draft for the Government Data Sharing Regulations, aiming to enhance public service efficiency through data integration. Relevant companies include Aofei Data (300738) and Inspur Information (000977) [7]. - **Apple Supply Chain Theme**: Reports suggest that Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to launch in Fall 2026, impacting the product release schedule. Related companies include Lingyi Technology (002600) and Changying Precision (300115) [7]. Major Capital Inflows and Outflows - **Top Net Inflows**: The report lists major stocks with significant net inflows, including BYD (134,024.78 million), Hongbaoli (114,711.74 million), and Wanxiang Qianchao (66,130.24 million) [11]. - **Top Net Outflows**: Stocks with the highest net outflows include Jilin Chemical Fiber (-76,919.48 million), Shuanglin Shares (-71,032.47 million), and Chuaning Biological (-54,688.71 million) [13]. - **Margin Trading**: The report highlights stocks with significant margin selling, including Haiguang Information (466.25 million) and Junsheng Electronics (374.23 million) [14]. Industry Insights - The report provides insights into various industries, indicating that the automotive sector (SW Automotive) and basic chemicals (SW Basic Chemicals) are currently attracting significant capital inflows [17]. - Conversely, the electronics (SW Electronics) and computer (SW Computer) sectors are experiencing notable capital outflows, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [9][41]. Core Views - The automotive market is experiencing stable overall performance, with domestic demand being supported by new vehicle cycles and "old-for-new" policies, leading to a significant increase in consumption [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential of humanoid robots and their integration into various sectors, suggesting that companies with strong R&D capabilities and self-controlled equipment are likely to succeed [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which accounted for 42.7% of total vehicle sales in April, with production and sales showing rapid growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market with a 10.1% increase over the past month, compared to a 3.1% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][16]. - The automotive index rose by 2.7% in the last week, outperforming the broader market by 1.6 percentage points [16]. Market Data - In April, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% [8]. - The first four months of 2025 saw a total production and sales of over 10 million vehicles for the first time in history, with NEVs showing a year-on-year growth of 48.3% in production and 46.2% in sales [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies in the humanoid robot sector, such as Shuanglin Co. and Rongtai Co., and highlights the importance of self-controlled equipment manufacturers [6][9]. - It suggests focusing on companies with deep collaborations with major tech firms, such as Seres and JAC Motors, as well as those in the automotive parts sector that are poised for growth due to technological changes and export opportunities [42]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook with "Buy" ratings for Shuanglin Co. (PE of 37.11 for 2025E), Redik (PE of 55.67 for 2025E), and others [11][44].