Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.9% for Q2 2025, driven by the collaboration between Ciele Athletics and Tabo [2][5]. - The overall retail sales in June 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand in the market, although growth rates for major consumer categories have slowed down [2][44]. - The report highlights the resilience of the luxury goods sector, with Richemont's sales growing by 3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the jewelry segment [63]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an unaudited revenue of $444 million, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with the footwear manufacturing segment contributing $433 million, also up by 2.5% [15]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $775 million, reflecting a 0.7% year-on-year growth [15]. Market Dynamics - The SW textile and apparel sector saw a slight increase of 0.24% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, while the SW light industry manufacturing sector rose by 0.08% [16]. - The textile manufacturing sub-sector increased by 2.43%, while the apparel and home textile sub-sector rose by 0.29% [16]. Industry Data Tracking - In the first half of 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $705.19 billion and $734.59 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a slight decline of 0.2%, respectively [37]. - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry grew by 6.1% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating robust demand in the jewelry market [44]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes that online retail channels performed slightly better than the overall retail market, with a 6.0% year-on-year growth in online sales of physical goods in the first half of 2025 [43]. - The demand for sports and entertainment products remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [44].

Core Insights - The report highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation, with June CPI data reflecting these influences. The overall market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain stable, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December [6][7]. Market Trends - Domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,559.79, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11,007.49, up 0.86% [4]. - In the U.S. market, major indices exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.59% [6]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes a decline in initial jobless claims to 221,000, continuing a five-week downward trend. The June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, up from 2.38%, indicating a rebound influenced by tariffs, particularly in used car prices and imported goods [6][7]. - The analysis suggests limited further increases in tariffs due to insufficient economic fundamentals to absorb negative impacts, with expectations that the inflationary effects of tariffs will diminish by the third quarter [6]. Currency and Credit Dynamics - The report discusses the historical evolution of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor, transitioning from the gold standard to a debt-driven economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the dollar in maintaining its value amidst increasing debt and geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - Short-term outlook for the dollar indicates a weak and volatile trend, with potential for structural depreciation in the medium term due to diverging monetary policies and fiscal sustainability concerns [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows boosting stock prices, particularly in domestic demand-driven sectors. Bonds are expected to benefit from a rebalancing of dollar assets [10]. - The report emphasizes the continued importance of gold as an investment, recommending accumulation during price corrections, supported by factors such as a weak dollar and central bank demand for diversification [10].

Group 1: Historical Evolution of the Dollar's Credit Anchor - The dollar's rise was initially supported by gold, with the U.S. holding 62% of global gold reserves by 1945[1] - The Bretton Woods system (1944-1973) faced challenges due to the Triffin dilemma, leading to a collapse of the gold-dollar peg[2] - The transition to the petrodollar system (1973-2008) created a credit loop of "oil-dollar-U.S. debt," but also exposed vulnerabilities during financial crises[3] Group 2: Current Trends and Future Outlook - In the short term (within 1 year), the dollar is expected to experience weak fluctuations, primarily due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - The medium-term (1-3 years) outlook indicates a structural depreciation of the dollar, driven by fiscal sustainability concerns and diversification trends[5] - Long-term (over 3 years), the dollar's share is projected to align more closely with economic strength, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system[6] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with foreign capital inflows likely to boost domestic demand-driven stocks[7] - Gold remains a strong asset allocation choice, supported by weak dollar pricing, central bank demand, and geopolitical risk premiums[8] - Risks include potential deterioration in global liquidity and unexpected advancements in AI technology impacting financial markets[9]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the leading position of the company in the linear drive sector, emphasizing its over 20 years of experience and technological expertise in the industry [5] - The company is expanding into the robotics market, establishing a joint venture to focus on core components for robotic applications, which is expected to drive future growth [5] - The report projects significant profit growth for the company, with net profits expected to reach 467 million, 560 million, and 667 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 65.5%, 20.0%, and 19.1% respectively [5] Market Trends - The linear drive products are increasingly being adopted across various sectors, including smart offices, smart homes, healthcare, industrial automation, and automotive intelligence, driven by rising demand and technological advancements [5] - The smart office market is expected to grow due to the increasing penetration of height-adjustable desks and a growing awareness of health among office workers [5] - The global smart home market is expanding rapidly, fueled by advancements in AI technology and increasing consumer demand for convenience and safety [5] Company Developments - The company has initiated a research and development plan for humanoid robots, successfully creating prototypes of linear actuators for joint movements [5] - A joint venture with Lingqiao Intelligent has been established to focus on the development and production of robotic hands and joint modules, indicating a strategic move towards diversification [5] - The company’s global presence includes subsidiaries and production bases in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, serving thousands of customers across over 100 countries [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the linear drive industry, with over 20 years of experience and a strong market position. It is expanding into robotics, which presents new growth opportunities [4][6]. - The demand for linear drive products is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing application in various sectors such as smart homes, healthcare, and industrial automation [5][46]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global trend towards automation and smart technology, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.34% for the linear drive market from 2023 to 2027 [46][67]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the linear drive sector for over 20 years, holding a solid position as an industry leader. It was founded in 2000 and went public in 2018. The company has developed a diverse product range and has established subsidiaries in various regions [4][18]. - The management team is experienced, with a concentrated ownership structure that supports stability and strategic direction [10][29]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.75% from 2017 to 2024. In 2024, the revenue reached 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [8][32]. - The net profit for 2024 was 282 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery with a year-on-year growth of 36.9% [8][32]. Market Demand - The linear drive market is expanding across various applications, including smart offices, healthcare, and smart homes. The global market for linear drive products is projected to reach 75.3 billion yuan by 2027 [46][67]. - The smart office segment is expected to grow due to increasing health awareness among workers, with the market for linear drive products in this area projected to reach 321 billion yuan by 2027 [55][58]. Growth Opportunities - The company is actively investing in robotics, having established a joint venture focused on developing robotic components, which is anticipated to open new growth avenues [6][4]. - The aging population and the demand for smart healthcare solutions are expected to drive the need for linear drive systems in medical devices, with a projected market size of 27.9 billion yuan by 2027 [59][67].

研究早观点 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,516.83 | 0.37 | | 深证成指 | | 10,873.62 | 1.43 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,034.49 | 0.68 | | 中小板指 | | 6,771.93 | 1.77 | | 创业板指 | | 2,269.33 | 1.75 代，半导体、具身智能等持续突破 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,005.65 | 0.80 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20250707-20250713）-——Grok4、KIMI K2 发布，算力板块业绩预告亮眼 【行业评论】生物医药Ⅱ：创新药动态更新：PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 三抗 CS2009：剂量爬坡耐受性良好，冷肿瘤及 PD-(L)1 经治患者中观察到抗肿 瘤活性 【行业评论】煤 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-B" for the biopharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - CS2009, a tri-specific antibody developed by the company, shows good dose escalation tolerance and anti-tumor activity in "cold tumors" and patients previously treated with PD-(L)1 [1][6]. - The clinical trials for CS2009 include various cancers such as non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), liver cancer, gastric cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian cancer, renal cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, and cervical cancer [3][4]. - The report highlights that CS2009 has superior preclinical data compared to similar drugs, indicating significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for NSCLC patients [5]. Summary by Sections Clinical Data - CS2009's phase I clinical trial has shown good tolerance, with no dose-limiting toxicities observed at the fourth dose level (20 mg/kg, Q3W) [6]. - The ongoing global phase I/II clinical trials are recruiting patients in Australia and China, with plans to expand to the United States [6]. Mechanism of Action - CS2009 combines PD-1, CTLA-4, and VEGFA, enhancing anti-tumor effects by activating T cells and neutralizing VEGFA [3][4]. - The report notes that CS2009's combination therapy shows a 150-fold increase in checkpoint inhibition activity compared to other combinations [4]. Market Potential - The report suggests that CS2009 could potentially replace existing PD-(L)1-based therapies, offering benefits in both PFS and OS [3][5]. - The anticipated data from the phase I trial is expected to be presented at an international academic conference in Q4 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][36]. Core Insights - The communication industry has seen significant advancements with the release of Grok4 and Kimi K2, which are expected to enhance capabilities in various applications such as programming and robotics [3][15]. - The earnings forecasts for major players in the server, optical module, and copper connection sectors are promising, with notable year-on-year growth expected [5][16]. - The ongoing global competition in computing power is shifting from model training to service quality and competitive advantages, suggesting a robust outlook for investments in the sector [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Outperform," with expectations of exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [1][36]. Industry Trends - Grok4, launched by xAI, boasts a tenfold improvement in reasoning capabilities compared to its predecessor, with applications in complex task execution and programming [3][14]. - Kimi K2, a new MoE model, has achieved state-of-the-art results in several foundational tests, indicating significant advancements in AI capabilities [4][15]. Earnings Forecasts - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 11.96-12.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.8%-39.1% [5][16]. - Other companies like Guangxun Technology and Huagong Technology also project substantial profit growth, with increases ranging from 30% to 95% year-on-year [5][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on both overseas and domestic computing power chains, highlighting companies such as Industrial Fulian and Huagong Technology as key players [8][19]. - The ongoing arms race in computing power is expected to yield numerous investment opportunities in the coming years, particularly in the context of domestic algorithm optimization [17][18]. Market Overview - The overall market showed positive performance during the week of July 7-11, 2025, with notable increases in various indices, including a 2.36% rise in the ChiNext Index [8][19]. - Specific sectors such as equipment manufacturers and IoT led the weekly gains, indicating strong investor interest [8][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has achieved international leadership in AI slag removal technology, with continuous high growth in special equipment for thermal power [4][5]. - The recent certification of the intelligent operation and maintenance technology for slag removal equipment enhances the company's innovation and R&D capabilities, supporting its market expansion [6]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with projected revenue between 900 million to 1.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.1% to 143.2% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.78 yuan, 2.31 yuan, and 2.98 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15.5, 11.9, and 9.3 [7][10]. - Revenue forecasts for the years 2023 to 2027 are 1.029 billion yuan, 1.314 billion yuan, 1.947 billion yuan, 2.493 billion yuan, and 2.977 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 27.7%, 48.2%, 28.0%, and 19.4% respectively [10][11]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 87 million yuan, 93 million yuan, 219 million yuan, 285 million yuan, and 366 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.0%, 7.3%, 135.6%, 29.9%, and 28.8% respectively [10][11].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "synchronous with the market" [1][4]. Core Insights - The coal supply has shown a marginal decrease in growth, with a total output of 2.405 billion tons from January to June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, but the growth rate is slowing down. In June alone, the output was 421 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year [4][6]. - Demand for coal is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment growing by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, while real estate investment decreased by 11.2% [4][6]. - Coal imports have contracted significantly, with a total of 22.17 million tons imported from January to June 2025, down 11.1% year-on-year. In June, imports were 33.037 million tons, a decrease of 25.93% year-on-year [5][6]. - Coal prices are stabilizing after a decline, with signs of a rebound in June. The average price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal has decreased since the beginning of 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has been decreasing marginally, with a total output of 2.405 billion tons in the first half of 2025, and June's output was 421 million tons [4][6]. - Demand is primarily driven by non-electric sectors, with a notable increase in manufacturing and infrastructure investments [4][6]. Import and Price Trends - Coal imports have seen a significant reduction, with a total of 22.17 million tons imported in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.1% year-on-year decline [5][6]. - The coal prices are nearing the bottom, with a rebound observed in June, indicating a potential for future price stability [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the coking coal sector such as Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, while for thermal coal, companies like Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted [6].