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激光雷达行业分析简报:城市NOA渗透率提升,激光雷达行业爆发-20250319
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 08:42
Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth potential for the LiDAR industry, with a projected market size of 10.5 billion yuan by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% from 2023 to 2025 [2][50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that 2023 marks the beginning of the urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) era, leading to a surge in the LiDAR industry. Deliveries of automotive LiDAR units in China are expected to exceed 1.5 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 212% [2][41]. - The average price of LiDAR in China fell below $500 in 2023, significantly lower than the global average of $700 to $1000, which is anticipated to continue decreasing due to domestic supply chain improvements and economies of scale [2][41]. - By 2025, the domestic automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach 10.5 billion yuan, with a projected CAGR of 63% from 2023 to 2025, and 33.6 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 36% from 2023 to 2030 [2][50]. Summary by Sections 1. LiDAR Concept - LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is a technology that uses laser beams to measure distances by calculating the time it takes for the light to return after hitting an object, creating a detailed 3D model of the environment [6]. 2. LiDAR Classification - LiDAR can be categorized into mechanical, hybrid solid-state, and pure solid-state types, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages regarding reliability, cost, and application suitability [9][15][16]. 3. Market Landscape - In 2023, the global automotive LiDAR market is dominated by Hesai Technology and RoboSense, which together account for 58% of the market share. The report notes a significant shift from traditional suppliers like Valeo, whose market share has dropped to 10% [27][30]. 4. Sensor Comparison - LiDAR outperforms other sensors like cameras and millimeter-wave radars in terms of detection accuracy, range, and reliability, making it essential for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [32][33]. 5. LiDAR Industry Trends - The report emphasizes that the integration of LiDAR is becoming the mainstream solution for urban NOA, with increasing consumer demand for intelligent driving features influencing purchasing decisions [41][44]. 6. Industry Chain - The LiDAR industry chain is characterized by a low degree of domestic production in key components like lasers and receivers, while domestic manufacturers excel in LiDAR module production [60][63].
华润三九(000999):业绩稳健增长,并购整合持续推进
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 08:31
[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 18 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 华润三九(000999)医药生物 目标价:——元(6 个月) 买入 (维持) 当前价:42.47 元 业绩稳健增长,并购整合持续推进 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27616.61 | 30828.99 | 34374.43 | 38368.48 | | 增长率 | 11.63% | 11.63% | 11.50% | 11.62% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 3367.89 | 3752.89 | 4217.77 | 4723.25 | | 增长率 | 18.05% | 11.43% | 12.39% | 11.98% | | 每股收益 EPS(元) | 2.62 | 2.92 | 3.28 | 3.68 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 14.96% | 13.38% | 13.06% | 12.76% ...
豪迈科技:业绩实现快速增长,三大业务持续向好-20250319
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 05:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has achieved rapid growth in performance, with three main business segments continuing to perform well [1][7]. - The tire mold business has seen significant revenue growth, driven by domestic tire companies expanding overseas and increasing demand for new energy vehicles and high-performance tires [7][8]. - The gas turbine market is experiencing strong demand, with global orders for gas turbines exceeding 50GW in 2024, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [7]. - The CNC machine tool business is expanding rapidly, with a projected revenue growth of 60% in 2025 [8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 88.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 20.1 billion yuan, up 24.8% year-on-year [7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 24.5 billion yuan, a 31.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, up 34.1% year-on-year [7]. Business Segments - Tire Mold Business: Revenue reached 46.5 billion yuan in 2024, growing 22.7% year-on-year, benefiting from the international expansion of domestic tire manufacturers [7][8]. - Large Component Machinery Products: Revenue of 33.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 20.3% increase, with strong demand in the gas turbine and wind power sectors [7]. - CNC Machine Tools: Revenue of 4.0 billion yuan in 2024, a 29.3% increase, with significant growth potential due to low domestic market penetration [7][8]. Profitability and Forecast - The company maintains strong profitability with a gross margin of 34.3% in 2024 and a net margin of 22.8% [7]. - Forecasts for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 23.3 billion yuan, 26.4 billion yuan, and 29.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 13% [10][11].
金斯瑞生物科技:利润大幅提升,盈利能力持续改善-20250319
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 05:55
Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant profit increase, with net profit reaching $2.961 billion in 2024, primarily due to the gain from the demerger of its cell therapy business [7][8]. - The revenue for 2024 was $594.49 million, reflecting a decrease of 29.19% year-on-year, but is expected to rebound with a projected revenue of $937.21 million in 2025, representing a growth of 57.65% [2][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its life sciences services and products, with a projected revenue growth of 15% to 20% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2024: $594.49 million - 2025E: $937.21 million (growth of 57.65%) - 2026E: $829.90 million (decline of 11.45%) - 2027E: $981.93 million (growth of 18.32%) [2][9] - **Net Profit**: - 2024: $2.961 billion - 2025E: $309.95 million (decline of 89.54%) - 2026E: $130.72 million (decline of 57.82%) - 2027E: $208.01 million (growth of 59.12%) [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: $1.37 - 2025E: $0.14 - 2026E: $0.06 - 2027E: $0.10 [2][9] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2024: 68.54% - 2025E: 6.69% - 2026E: 2.75% - 2027E: 4.19% [2][9] Business Segment Performance - **Life Sciences Services and Products**: - 2024 revenue: $455 million (growth of 16%) - Expected to maintain stable pricing with projected growth rates of 15% to 20% from 2025 to 2027 [8][9]. - **Biologics Development Services**: - 2024 revenue: $95 million (decline of 13.2%) - Expected to recover with growth rates of 20% in 2025 and 10% in subsequent years [8][9]. - **Industrial Synthetic Biology Products**: - 2024 revenue: $53.7 million (growth of 25%) - Projected growth rates of 25% in 2025 and 18% in the following years [8][9]. Strategic Development - The company aims to invest in R&D for antibody drug development and AI drug development, enhancing operational efficiency and expanding global production capacity [7][8]. - It plans to strengthen its market presence in North America and Europe, focusing on customer relationships and expanding production capacity [7][8].
钧达股份:海外营收占比持续提升,业绩拐点在即-20250319
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 05:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a turning point in performance, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contributing to its growth [1][7]. - The company has achieved a notable increase in the sales of TOPCon solar cells, with a 12.62% year-on-year growth in sales volume, and over 90% of sales coming from N-type TOPCon cells, which saw a 50.6% increase [7]. - The establishment of a 10GW battery production capacity in Oman is anticipated to enhance the company's global competitiveness and profitability [7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 99.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.66% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -591.11 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 172.47% [2][7]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is expected to recover, with net profits projected at 783.22 million yuan, 1.14 billion yuan, and 1.38 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant growth rates of 232.50%, 45.44%, and 21.27% [2][8]. - The average earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to improve from -2.58 yuan in 2024 to 6.03 yuan by 2027 [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 99.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 184.3 billion yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 30.53%, 23.40%, and 14.97% in the following years [2][8]. - The gross margin for solar cells is projected to improve significantly, from 0.5% in 2024 to 12.5% by 2027 [8]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability due to improved pricing in the domestic supply chain and enhanced overseas market performance [7].
量化配置研究系列六:基于产业链和交易结构的豆粕期货择时框架
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 05:05
2[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 03 月 17 日 证券研究报告•金融工程专题报告 量化配置研究系列六 基于产业链和交易结构的豆粕期货择时框架 风险提示 本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行统计、测算,文中部分数据有一定滞 后性,同时存在第三方数据提供不准确风险;模型均基于历史数据得到的统计 结论且模型自身具有一定局限性并不能完全准确地刻画现实环境以及预测未 来;模型根据历史规律总结,历史规律可能失效;模型结论基于统计工具得到, 在极端情形下或存在解释力不足的风险,因此其结果仅做分析参考。 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师:郑琳琳 执业证号:S1250522110001 邮箱:zhengll@swsc.com.cn 联系人:缪金瑾 邮箱:mjj@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 豆粕分析框架:豆粕是大豆压榨豆油的副产物,主用于养殖饲料,三者行情通 常呈正相关。豆粕分析考虑四大方面:总供给、总需求、市场情绪和产业链。 其中供给是关键因素,豆粕供给 99.9%来源国内压榨,原料大豆 84%来源进口, 主要看巴西和美国。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜 ...
豪迈科技(002595):业绩实现快速增长,三大业务持续向好
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 05:00
[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 18 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 豪迈科技(002595)机械设备 目标价:——元(6 个月) 数据来源: Wind ,西南证券 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师:邰桂龙 执业证号:S1250521050002 电话:021-58351893 邮箱:tgl@swsc.com.cn 联系人:杨云杰 电话:021-58351893 邮箱:yyjie@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 相对指数表现 -12% 1% 14% 28% 41% 55% 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 豪迈科技 沪深300 买入 (维持) 当前价:53.42 元 业绩实现快速增长,三大业务持续向好 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8813.37 | 10339 ...
金斯瑞生物科技(01548):利润大幅提升,盈利能力持续改善
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 05:00
Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - Kingsray Biotechnology (1548.HK) reported a significant profit increase, with net profit reaching $2.961 billion in 2024, primarily due to the gain from the demerger of its cell therapy business [7][8] - The company’s revenue for 2024 was $594.49 million, reflecting a decrease of 29.19% year-on-year, but is expected to rebound with a projected revenue of $937.21 million in 2025, representing a growth of 57.65% [2][8] - The life sciences segment showed steady growth, with external revenue of approximately $450 million in 2024, up 10.2% year-on-year, driven by platform upgrades and operational efficiency improvements [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit of $270 million, with a gross margin of 45.77% [10] - The projected net profit for 2025 is $309.95 million, with a significant drop in profitability expected in 2026 [2][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was $1.37, but is expected to decline to $0.14 in 2025 [2][8] Revenue Breakdown - Life Sciences Services and Products: Expected revenue growth of 15% in 2025, reaching $523.2 million [9] - Biologics Development Services: Anticipated revenue of $114 million in 2025, with a recovery expected after a decline in 2024 [9] - Industrial Synthetic Biology Products: Projected revenue growth of 25% in 2025, reaching $65 million [9] Strategic Development - The company plans to invest in R&D for antibody drug development and AI drug development, aiming to enhance product reliability and cost-effectiveness [7][8] - Expansion of production capacity in North America and Europe is a key focus to meet customer demands and mitigate supply chain risks [7][8] Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately $27.69 billion, with a 52-week price range of HKD 8.23 to HKD 16.74 [5] - The stock has shown a relative performance against the Hang Seng Index, with fluctuations noted over the past year [4]
钧达股份(002865):海外营收占比持续提升,业绩拐点在即
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 04:44
[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 18 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 钧达股份(002865)电力设备 目标价:——元(6 个月) | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9951.94 | 12990.00 | 16030.00 | 18430.00 | | 增长率 | -46.66% | 30.53% | 23.40% | 14.97% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | -591.11 | 783.22 | 1139.13 | 1381.48 | | 增长率 | -172.47% | 232.50% | 45.44% | 21.27% | | 每股收益 EPS(元) | -2.58 | 3.42 | 4.97 | 6.03 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | -15.21% | 16.36% | 19.74% | 19.95% | | PE | -23 | 17 | 12 | 10 | | ...
西藏药业(600211):业绩符合预期,现金分红提升股东回报
Southwest Securities· 2025-03-19 03:31
Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a total revenue of 28.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3% [6][9]. - The sales of the main product, New Huo Su, experienced a decline, with a total sales revenue of 24.3 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year [6][9]. - The company plans to continue high cash dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 0.728 yuan per share, totaling 630 million yuan, which accounts for 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 28.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -10.45% [2][9]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 31.26% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 3.26 yuan [2][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) was 26.75% [2][9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 29.6 billion yuan, 33.2 billion yuan, and 37.3 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 5.56%, 12.14%, and 12.26% [2][9]. - Net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 9.4 billion yuan, 10.5 billion yuan, and 11.3 billion yuan, respectively [6][9]. Product Sales Forecast - New Huo Su sales are projected to be 25.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 3% [8][9]. - Other product sales are expected to grow significantly, with projections of 452.8 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 21.1% [8][9]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 94.2%, with a slight decrease expected in the following years [6][9]. - The company aims to control the cost ratio to within 70% for 2025 [6][9].