每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 222012 日星期三 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指守 25,000 點：聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡 轉變可能需要調整政策立場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟 聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，2026 年減息空間少於預期。美國關稅寬限期即將 在 11 月屆滿，美國總統特朗普表示，將自 11 月 1 日起對中國額外徵收 100%關稅，並對全部關鍵軟件實施出口管制，以及預告或不會在 APEC 峰會與國家主席習近平會面。中美關係再次緊張，打擊投資氣氛。預計中 美進入新一輪角力期，大市波動性加劇。至於內地經濟方面，國慶中秋假 期人均消費下跌，顯示消費力疲軟，港股企業盈利未見改善。後續觀望中 美貿易戰局勢，以及十五五規劃，恒指料守 25,000 點，相當於未來 12 個 月預測市盈率 12 倍。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 ➢ 9月百城二手房均價按月跌0.74%，連跌41個月； 商務部召開政策解讀專場圓桌會，回應外企反映問題訴求； 蘋果可折疊iPad研發傳遇挫，發布時間押後至2029年或之後； 高市早苗當選成日本首位女首相； 企業消息 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 212012 日星期二 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指守 25,000 點：聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡 轉變可能需要調整政策立場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟 聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，2026 年減息空間少於預期。美國關稅寬限期即將 在 11 月屆滿，美國總統特朗普表示，將自 11 月 1 日起對中國額外徵收 100%關稅，並對全部關鍵軟件實施出口管制，以及預告或不會在 APEC 峰會與國家主席習近平會面。中美關係再次緊張，打擊投資氣氛。預計中 美進入新一輪角力期，大市波動性加劇。至於內地經濟方面，國慶中秋假 期人均消費下跌，顯示消費力疲軟，港股企業盈利未見改善。後續觀望中 美貿易戰局勢，以及十五五規劃，恒指料守 25,000 點，相當於未來 12 個 月預測市盈率 12 倍。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 英國 9 月 CPI 及核心 CPI；中國電信(0728)等業績； 宏觀焦點 廣和通(0638)上限21.5元定價，集資約29億元； 外圍市況展望 美國聯儲局9月宣布減息0.25厘，符合市場預期。利率點陣圖 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 202012 日星期一 -01-17 市場回顧 宏觀焦點 外圍市況展望 美國聯儲局9月宣布減息0.25厘，符合市場預期。利率點陣圖顯示，官員 們普遍預計，今年餘下兩次會議亦各減息0.25厘。會後聲明指出，最新 指標顯示上半年經濟活動放緩，職位增長放慢，失業率略為上升但依然 低企，通脹呈上升跡象並仍略為高企。鮑威爾表示，9月的寬鬆行動屬於 風險管理類型的減息，暗示並非開啟持續的減息周期。點陣圖顯示，聯 儲局將在2026年再減息1次，明顯低於目前市場預期的3次減息。此外， 聯儲局會繼續執行量化緊縮(QT)，手上的美債及按揭抵押證券(MBS)分 別以每月50億美元及350億美元的步伐縮減。貿易戰拖慢原油需求增長， OPEC+增加供應，料限制國際油價上行空間。 | 各國指數 | 收市價 | | 變動% 年初至今% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生 | 25,247 | -2.48 | 25.86 | | 恒生國企 | 9,012 | -2.67 | 23.62 | | 恒生 AH 股溢價 | 119.74 | 0.85 | -16.2 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 172012 日星期五 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指守 25,000 點：聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡 轉變可能需要調整政策立場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟 聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，明年減息空間少於預期。美國關稅寬限期即將在 11 月屆滿，美國總統特朗普表示，將自 11 月 1 日起對中國額外徵收 100% 關稅，並對全部關鍵軟件實施出口管制，以及預告或不會在 APEC 峰會 與國家主席習近平會面。中美關係再次緊張，打擊投資氣氛。預計中美進 入新一輪角力期，大市波動性加劇。至於國內經濟方面，內地國慶中秋假 期人均消費下跌，顯示消費力疲軟，港股企業盈利未見改善。後續觀望中 美貿易戰局勢，以及十五五規劃，恒指料守 25,000 點，相當於未來 12 個 月預測市盈率 12 倍。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 ➢ 內地存款回流 股市動力降； 澳門第三季貴賓博彩收入168億元按季增3.4% 創疫情最高； 美聯儲降息步伐現分歧：沃勒主張謹慎降息，米蘭呼籲50基點更大 力度降息； 企業消息 ➢ 遭新加坡GIC起訴 蔚來(9866 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to hold at 25,000 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 12 times over the next 12 months, amid concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions and weak consumer spending in China [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has led to reduced expectations for future rate reductions, with a potential cut of only one time in 2026, contrary to market expectations of three cuts [3] Economic Indicators - In September, new loans in China reached 1.29 trillion yuan, more than double the previous month, driven by consumer loan incentives [9] - The core inflation rate in China was reported at 1% for the first time in over a year and a half, indicating a slight recovery in consumer prices, although overall CPI fell by 0.3% due to declining food prices [10] Corporate Developments - China Tower (0788) and Fuyao Glass (3606) are in focus for their upcoming earnings reports [7] - SenseTime (0020) has entered a strategic partnership with Cambricon (688256.SH) to enhance AI infrastructure and services [11] - Xiaomi (1810) has launched its Double 11 promotional campaign, offering discounts totaling 2 billion yuan [11] - Nine Dragons Paper (9922) reported a narrowing decline in same-store sales, reflecting successful operational adjustments [11] Sector Performance - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong investment returns in Q3, driven by robust A-share market performance [7] - AI-related stocks are gaining traction as China accelerates the application of digital technologies [7] Trade Relations - The U.S. and China are in a trade war, with President Trump indicating plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods if no agreement is reached [9] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested extending the 90-day tariff suspension period to resolve key mineral conflicts [9]

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 142012 日星期二 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指守 25,000 點：聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡 轉變可能需要調整政策立場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟 聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，明年減息空間少於預期。美國關稅寬限期即將在 11 月屆滿，美國總統特朗普表示，將自 11 月 1 日起對中國額外徵收 100% 關稅，並對全部關鍵軟件實施出口管制，以及預告或不會在 APEC 峰會 與國家主席習近平會面。中美關係再次緊張，打擊投資氣氛。預計中美進 入新一輪角力期，大市波動性加劇。至於國內經濟方面，內地國慶中秋假 期人均消費下跌，顯示消費力疲軟，港股企業盈利未見改善。後續觀望中 美貿易戰局勢，以及十五五規劃，恒指料守 25,000 點，相當於未來 12 個 月預測市盈率 12 倍。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 ➢ 特朗普：盼助中國非傷害 華：美沒自省 美財長稱經溝通局勢大幅緩 和 仍計劃會晤； 內地9月以美元計價出口按年增長8.3% 進口增7.4% 均勝預期； 證監推REIT專線 便利新房託上市； 企業消息 ➢ 新華保險( ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 28,000 points due to the extension of the 90-day tariff truce between China and the US, along with improved trade agreements with other countries, easing trade tensions [2] - Despite no improvement in corporate earnings, the resurgence of AI-related stocks is leading the market, with expectations of favorable policies ahead of the October Fourth Plenary Session [2] Sector Focus - The focus is on the US October Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the impact of recent macroeconomic data from China, including a 7.6% year-on-year increase in the value added by industrial SMEs in the first eight months [3][8] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls on certain rare earth materials, which may affect related industries [8] Corporate News - Sunny Optical (2382) plans to transfer equity to increase its stake in GoerTek, while Innovent Biologics (2577) is raising over 1.5 billion HKD through an 8% discounted placement [4] - NIO (9866) is restructuring its autonomous driving department to facilitate the development of its World Model 2.0 [4] - Shandong Gold (1787) received a 120 million RMB increase in shareholding from its controlling shareholder [4] IPO Market - KPMG reports that Hong Kong is poised to reclaim its position as the top global IPO market by the end of 2025, with nearly 300 IPO applications submitted, marking a historical high [9] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a total of 930 IPOs globally, raising 111.6 billion USD, with Hong Kong leading in A+H listings [9] Economic Indicators - The consumer spending during China's Golden Week reached 809 billion RMB, with 888 million domestic trips taken, indicating a strong recovery in consumer confidence [8] - The box office for the National Day holiday in China fell by 13% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards more refined market preferences [8] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has issued a notice addressing the issue of disorderly competition, emphasizing the need for fair pricing practices to maintain market order [8] - New export controls on rare earth materials and related technologies have been implemented to safeguard national security and interests [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 28,000 points due to the extension of the US-China tariff truce and a more favorable trade environment with other countries [1] - Despite no improvement in corporate earnings, the resurgence of AI stocks is leading the market, with expectations of policy support ahead of the October Fourth Plenary Session [1] Sector Focus - Positive outlook for sectors such as AI, mobile devices, and biotechnology, driven by advancements in chip development and favorable market conditions [7][8] Corporate News - HSBC has proposed to privatize Hang Seng Bank at a 30% premium, offering HKD 155 per share, with no plans to increase the offer [3] - Sany Heavy Industry has received approval for its H-share issuance from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3] - Tencent's mixed reality model ranks among the top three globally and first in mainland China [3] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 0.25% aligns with market expectations, with indications of further cuts in the remaining meetings of the year [3] - The US economy is experiencing a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [3] Trade and Investment Trends - Chinese companies have purchased USD 38 billion worth of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, highlighting the ongoing investment in advanced technology despite regulatory challenges [9] - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market reached a record high of HKD 316.7 billion in September, reflecting increased market activity [8] Travel and Consumer Behavior - During the recent "Golden Week," over 2.4 billion trips were made within China, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel [8] - Meituan reported a more than 30% year-on-year increase in travel orders during the National Day holiday, showcasing a rebound in consumer spending [8]

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 8 日星期三 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指上望 28,000 點：中美雙方同意延長 5 月中旬達成的 90 天關稅休戰 協議，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅戰局勢緩和。另外，聯儲局主 席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡轉變可能需要調整政策立場， 同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，明年減 息空間少於預期。儘管港股企業盈利未見改善，但 AI 行情再起，科技股 領漲大市，加上 10 月四中全會事前料有政策憧憬，恒指上望 28,000 點。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 ➢ 中國外滙儲備按月升0.5%，央行連續11個月增持黃金； 世銀調高中國今年經濟增長預測至4.8%，料明年放緩； 世貿大幅下調2026年貨物貿易增長預期，指單邊關稅帶來逆風； 特朗普威脅不向聯邦僱員補發政府停擺期間薪資； 特斯拉Model Y標準版美國售價低於4萬美元； AMD與OpenAI達成數百億美元晶片合作協議； 企業消息 陳樂怡 tracy.chan@cinda.com.hk | 各國指數 | 收市價 | | 變動% 年初至今% | | ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指阻力參考 27,000 點：中美雙方同意延長 5 月中旬達成的 90 天關稅 休戰協議，同時美國與更多國家達成協議，關稅戰局勢緩和。另外，聯儲 局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡轉變可能需要調整政策立 場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期一度升溫。惟美聯儲 9 月鷹派減 息，明年減息空間少於預期。美匯、債息反彈，牽制港股上行空間，短線 留意 10 月四中全會有關十五五規劃以及十一消費出行數據，恒指料區間 上落，短線阻力參考 27,000 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 歐元區 9 月消費者信心指數； 美8月PCE通脹溫和符預期 減息預期繼續； 企業消息 ➢ 優必選(9880)再獲3000萬人形機器人大單 總訂單金額逼近4.3億； 比亞迪(1211)：降賣車目標「更健康」預告未來數月產銷現新一輪增 長； 新世界(0017)去年度淨虧損163億元不派息 總債務約1461億元； 外圍市況展望 宏觀焦點 ➢ 央行：要落實落細適度寬鬆的貨幣政策，用好證券、基金、保險公司 互換便利和股票回 ...