Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to test the level of 18,671 points, with the government setting a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Chinese government aims to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to boost investor confidence in economic growth for 2025 [2] - The introduction of a "AI+" initiative and the launch of the DeepSeek domestic high-performance model are expected to lower reasoning costs and accelerate AI applications, which may positively impact corporate revenues and profit growth [2] Corporate News - BYD Company Limited (1211) has issued a profit warning, anticipating a profit increase of over 86% for the first quarter [4] - The three major oil companies are expected to increase their holdings in A and H shares, involving nearly 13 billion RMB [4] Macro Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in March and is expected to reduce rates twice this year, with a total reduction of 50 basis points [5] - The U.S. has announced a minimum benchmark tariff of 10% on trade partners, which is expected to impact global trade activities [3][9] - The U.S. is considering raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 34%, which exceeds market expectations, and China is preparing retaliatory measures [3][9] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 20,128, up 1.51% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.79% [6] - The U.S. stock market experienced declines, with major indices falling between 0.8% and 2.2% [7] Government and Regulatory Actions - The Central Huijin Investment Company has increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to stabilize the capital market amid global stock market turmoil [10] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) supports state-owned enterprises in increasing share buybacks to enhance shareholder value [10] - The National Social Security Fund has actively increased its domestic stock holdings and plans to continue doing so [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to test the low of 18,671 points as the government sets the 2025 GDP growth target at around 5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to boost investor confidence in economic growth for 2025 [1] - The trade war with the US is intensifying, with new tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, which could negatively impact investment sentiment and corporate earnings [1][2] Sector Outlook - High-yield stocks are favored in the current volatile market as investors seek safe havens amid rising expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates but may reduce them twice this year, reflecting increased inflation risks and economic uncertainty [2] Company News - China Railway (1766) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first quarter, expected to rise over 1.8 times compared to the previous year [5][8] - China Aluminum (2600) also expects a profit increase of over 53% for the first quarter [5][8] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919) forecasts a 73% increase in net profit for the first quarter [5][8] Economic Policies - The Chinese government is discussing preemptive economic stimulus measures in response to the US tariffs, focusing on consumption and export support [6][7] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has raised the upper limit for insurance fund equity asset allocation to support the capital market and real economy [7] Trade Relations - The US is threatening to impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods unless retaliatory tariffs are lifted, which could escalate trade tensions further [6] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on US imports starting April 15, responding to US tariffs on steel and aluminum [6] Investment Trends - The global AI investment is projected to reach $315.8 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.9% expected until 2028 [7] - Major Chinese state-owned enterprises are increasing their investments in stocks and ETFs to stabilize the market [7][8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to test the 20,000 point level as the government sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, aligning with market expectations. The Prime Minister emphasized the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to boost investor confidence in economic growth for 2025 [2] - The introduction of a 34% tariff on Chinese imports by the US has negatively impacted investment sentiment and corporate earnings, leading to a forecasted decline in the Hang Seng Index [2][5] Sector Focus - High-yield stocks are favored in the current volatile market as investors seek safe havens amid rising expectations for interest rate cuts [3] - The service sector in China showed improvement with the Caixin Services PMI rising to 51.9 in March, exceeding expectations, indicating a faster expansion pace [8] Company News - Dongpeng Beverage has submitted an application for an H-share listing in Hong Kong, reporting a revenue of 15.83 billion yuan for the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 40.62% [9] - Sany Heavy Industry's board has approved the issuance of H-shares to enhance its global strategy and connect with overseas capital markets [9] - Lalamove's parent company has applied for a mainboard listing in Hong Kong, reporting a 27% year-on-year profit increase [9] - Meituan has initiated a pilot program for rider pension insurance, expanding coverage to 17 provinces and cities [9] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts this year, reflecting a cautious approach to inflation uncertainty [3] - China's foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic indicators are being closely monitored as tariffs and trade tensions escalate [6][8] Trade Relations - The US has implemented a 34% tariff on all imports from China, effective April 10, 2025, which has prompted strong opposition from China, emphasizing the negative impact of trade wars [7][8] - Japan has announced export controls on semiconductor-related items, which China has condemned as harmful to global supply chains [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to test the support level at 22,436 points, with the government setting a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to boost investor confidence in economic growth for 2025 [2][3] - The introduction of a "10% minimum baseline tariff" by the US on trade partners, with a specific tariff of 34% on Chinese imports, is expected to negatively impact global trade activities and investor sentiment [2][7] Sector Outlook - The AI sector is viewed positively, with the government promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to support the widespread application of large models [3] - Chinese consumer stocks are anticipated to benefit from new policies aimed at stabilizing domestic demand [3] Corporate News - Xiaomi (1810) is facing scrutiny over the battery suppliers for its SU7 model following a serious accident, with investigations ongoing [4][8] - Tencent (0700) has repurchased shares worth 17.1 billion HKD in Q1, exceeding the previous year's level [4][8] - WuXi AppTec (2359) sold 50.8 million shares of WuXi AppTec Holdings (2268) for 2.178 billion HKD, indicating a strategic move to enhance its integrated CRDMO business model [4][8] Economic Indicators - The US ADP reported a private sector job growth of 155,000 in March, surpassing expectations [7] - China's March PMI data indicates a slight improvement in manufacturing and services sectors, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.5 and services PMI at 51.2 [9] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China, with a year-on-year growth of 37% [8] Investment Trends - The report highlights a trend of increased investment in AI technologies, with major Chinese companies like Tencent and Alibaba ordering significant quantities of AI server chips from Nvidia [8] - The IPO market in Hong Kong raised 18.2 billion HKD in Q1 2025, with expectations of around 130 to 150 billion HKD in total fundraising for the year [8]

| 產品 | 當日收市 | 變動 | 變動% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 香港指數 | | | | | 恒生指數 Hang Seng Index | 23344 | -624 | -2.6 | | H 股指數 H-Shares Index | 8614 | -265 | -2.98 | | 恒生科技指數 Hang Seng TECH Index | 5499 | -258 | -4.48 | | MSCI 中國 A50（美元）指數 | 2144 | 23.6 | 1.11 | | MSCI China A50 (USD) Index | | | | 環球期貨市場報告 2025 年 3 月 26 日 德國 2 月 Gfk 消費者信心指數 -21.3 - | 本周重要數據： | | 前值 | 預期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 月 26 日 | 美國核心耐用品訂單月率 (2 月) | - | 0.2% | | 3 月 27 日 | 美國 GDP 年率 (Q4) | 2.3% | 2.3% | | | 美國核心個人消費支出物價指數季率 (Q4) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for TK Group (Holdings) Limited with a target price of HK$2.48, indicating an upside potential of 28.6% from the current price of HK$1.93 [1]. Core Insights - TK Group expects a net profit growth of over 20% year-on-year for FY24E, with preliminary results aligning closely with estimates at approximately HK$260 million [2]. - The growth is attributed to a rebound in overseas business, significant revenue growth from domestic operations, and over 20% year-on-year growth in the plastic components segment, particularly from mobile phones and wearable devices [2]. - The company has a stable order book of approximately HK$900-1,000 million, supported by demand from mobile phones, wearables, and other sectors, which accounted for over 60% of the total order book in 1H24 [4]. - TK Group's client diversification is progressing well, with new orders from leading brands in the headset and professional audio sectors [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - The financial position remains strong, with net operating cash inflow of approximately HK$150 million and a net cash position of around HK$1.06 billion, representing about 65% of the market cap [6]. - FY24E capital expenditures are expected to be similar to FY23, around HK$70-80 million, with a planned increase in FY25E for capacity expansion [7]. - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% and 15.9% respectively from FY23 to FY26E [11]. - The report anticipates a dip in free cash flow in FY25E due to increased capital expenditures, but expects normalization in FY26E/27E [12]. Market Position and Valuation - TK Group is positioned as a leading total plastics solutions provider in China, with a strong client base including major global brands [9]. - The valuation remains undemanding, with a FY25E price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0x, which is approximately 50% lower than Hong Kong and international peers [11]. - The report highlights that TK Group's dividend payout ratio is expected to remain above 40%, translating to a dividend yield of 13.4% in FY24E [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Nameson Holdings with a target price of HKD 1.01, indicating an upside potential of 24.7% from the current price of HKD 0.81 [1]. Core Insights - Nameson's 1HFY25 results were largely in line with expectations, with sales and adjusted net profit growing by 2.2% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching HKD 2,726 million and HKD 299 million [1][6]. - The blended gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 19.9%, attributed to lower raw material prices and enhanced operational efficiency at the Vietnam plant [1][6]. - The company experienced a normalization in order volumes for whole garments, which temporarily affected total sales volume, while traditional knitwear and cashmere products provided volume support [1][6]. - Sales volume for Nameson reached 18 million pieces in 1HFY25, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with cashmere sales volume increasing significantly by 74% year-on-year to 1.6 million pieces [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Nameson's 1HFY25 average selling price (ASP) remained stable year-on-year at approximately US$18, with cashmere sales enjoying a higher ASP of around US$40, while traditional knitwear maintained an ASP of US$13-14 [1][6]. - The company expects FY25E sales to decline by approximately 1% year-on-year, primarily due to lower whole garment sales volume, offset by a stable blended ASP due to a better product mix [1][6]. Market Dynamics - Sales in Europe and Southeast Asia outperformed, growing by 23.1% and 37.7% year-on-year, respectively, driven by favorable weather and clients' overseas expansion [1][6]. - Conversely, sales in Japan and China faced challenges, declining by 23% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively, due to late winter and macroeconomic headwinds [1][6]. Operational Insights - Nameson manufactured 70% of its total sweaters in Vietnam during 1HFY25, with plans to continue expanding capacity in Central Vietnam [3]. - The company has ramped up its cashmere yarn production, achieving over 550 tons in 1HFY25, with a significant increase in revenue from its branded cashmere yarn, M.oro, which rose by 26.8% to approximately HKD 419 million [4][5]. Valuation and Outlook - Nameson is trading at an undemanding FY25E/26E PE of 4.4x/4.0x, which is approximately a 46% discount to peers' average [7]. - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low net gearing ratio of 14.3% in 1HFY25, allowing for a sustainable payout ratio of around 75% [8].

Investment Rating - **Rating**: BUY (Maintained) [2] - **Target Price**: HKD 70.09 (Up from HK$49.37) [2] - **Current Price**: HKD 46.65 (Upside: +50.3%) [2] Core Viewpoints - **1H24 Results**: Sunny Optical's 1H24 revenue and net income were RMB14,279mn and RMB1,079mn respectively, beating market consensus by 12.4% and 14.3% [2] - **Key Drivers**: Recovery in smartphone demand, especially flagship models, drove volume, ASP, and GM improvements [2] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Blended GM improved to 17.2% (vs. 14.9% in 1H23), driven by HLS and optoelectronics margin improvements [2] - **High-End Products**: High-end handset product shipments (6P+ lens, periscopes, large image size modules) grew 23.2% YoY, contributing 25.6% of total shipments [4] - **XR Segment**: XR revenue surged 110% YoY to ~RMB1bn, accounting for 5.3% of total revenue [8] - **Automotive Products**: Vehicle-related sales rose 16.4% YoY to RMB2,877mn, with VLS shipment guidance raised to 10-15% YoY [8] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: 1H24 revenue grew 32.1% YoY to RMB14,279mn [2] - **Net Income Growth**: Net income surged 147% YoY to RMB1,079mn, reaching 60% of FY24E estimates [2] - **Gross Margin**: Optical components' GM rebounded 5.8ppts YoY to 31.8%, while optoelectronics' GM improved 1.3ppts to 8.2% [3] - **R&D Expense**: R&D expense accounted for 7.8% of total revenue, with FY24E CAPEX maintained at ~RMB3.0bn [9] Market Position and Strategy - **Market Share**: Sunny Optical dominates the China handset market with ~50% market share, focusing on domestic OEMs like Huawei, Vivo, Oppo, and Xiaomi [6] - **Diversification Strategy**: Non-smartphone revenue contribution (auto + XR) increased to >30% of total revenue in 1H24, up from 15.5% in FY20 [9] - **Product Mix**: Management continues to focus on improving product mix to benefit ASP and GM, with HLS shipment guidance raised to 10-15% YoY [5] Future Outlook - **Smartphone Market Recovery**: Global smartphone shipments are expected to gradually pick up in FY24E, driven by top-tier clients' flagship models [5] - **Automotive Growth**: Sunny's automotive CCM order book reached RMB10bn, supporting mid-long term revenue growth [8] - **XR and AI**: AI technology and foldables are expected to drive high-end smartphone growth and promote a new replacement cycle [7] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - **Valuation**: Sunny Optical is trading at FY24E/25E 19.5x/16.0x PE, below its 10-year average [10] - **Earnings Forecast**: FY24E-26E net profit estimates raised by 35.8%/34.0%/31.7%, driven by higher sales and GM forecasts [9] - **Sales Growth**: FY24E-26E sales and net profit growth expected to accelerate to 10.7%/20.3% CAGR [10]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of AAC Technologies from NEUTRAL to BUY with a target price of HK$ 37.24, representing an upside of 19.2% from the current price of HK$ 31.25 [1]. Core Insights - AAC Technologies reported a net profit of RMB 537 million for 1H24, a significant increase of 257% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in gross margin across all segments [1][2]. - The company achieved a blended gross margin of 20% for the first time since 1H21, with expectations of continued growth in automotive-related business and optics segments [1][2]. - Management expressed a more optimistic outlook for business segments compared to FY23, indicating a clearer vision for mid-term growth [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - **Acoustics Segment**: Contributed approximately 31% of 1H24 revenue, with sales rising 4.1% year-on-year to RMB 3,466 million and gross margin increasing to 29.9% [1][2]. - **Haptics and Precision Mechanics**: Accounted for around 33% of 1H24 revenue, with a revenue growth of 1.1% year-on-year to RMB 3,660 million and gross margin rising to 22.9% [2]. - **Optics Segment**: Represented about 20% of 1H24 revenue, with a 25% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 2,210 million and a gross margin improvement to 4.7% [4][5]. Future Projections - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% for sales and 17.0% for net profit from FY24E to FY26E, supported by higher sales forecasts and improved gross margins [5][6]. - Management expects optics segment revenue to grow by 20% and shipment by 40% in FY24E, indicating a positive trend in product demand and pricing [5][6]. Strategic Positioning - AAC Technologies is positioned to benefit from the automotive acoustics market through its acquisition of PSS, which has a market share of 15-20% in the global automotive speaker market [1][2]. - The company is leveraging its expertise in acoustic solutions to meet the growing demand for intelligent cockpit systems in vehicles, indicating a strategic expansion into new market niches [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to BUY with a target price of HK$5.44, reflecting an upside of 17.5% from the current price of HK$4.63 [2][7]. Core Insights - The robust performance in 1H24 is attributed to improved gross margins (GM) and stable shipment volumes, with revenue and net profit soaring by 40.1% and 453.9% year-on-year, respectively [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in earnings from FY24E to FY26E, driven by quality growth and gradual recovery in sales and GM [6][7]. - The non-smartphone segment, particularly in automotive and IoT, is showing significant growth potential, with automotive CCM sales volume up 15 times year-on-year in 1H24 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, QT's camera module (CCM) revenue increased by 44.5% year-on-year to RMB7,215 million, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) and smartphone CCM shipment volume growth of 10.5% year-on-year [2][6]. - The blended GM improved by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 5.2%, supported by a better product mix and higher utilization rates [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - QT aims to position itself as a Tier-1.5 player, providing both hardware and software solutions to Tier-1 clients, with expectations of higher ASP and GM in the long run for automotive CCM products [4][6]. - The company has successfully diversified its product mix and is exploring business opportunities in the automotive intelligent vision industry chain, including automotive lenses and LiDAR modules [3][4]. Shipment and Production - In 1H24, QT's total CCM shipment reached approximately 255 million units, with smartphone CCM contributing around 249 million units, reflecting a 25.8% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - The company has doubled its non-smartphone CCM shipment in 1H24, accounting for about 2.5% of total shipments, indicating strong progress in this segment [2][6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that QT's sales and net profit will grow at a CAGR of 13.0% and 31.5%, respectively, from FY24E to FY26E, as management focuses on long-term quality growth [6][7]. - The non-smartphone segment is expected to ramp up gradually, with minimal contribution projected for FY24E and FY25E [6][7].