每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二 2012-01- 17 中港股市短期展望 恒指挑戰 25,000 點：由於美國 5 月中旬押後對等關稅 90 天，內地上半 年經濟較預期中平穩，現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大，企業盈利改 善有限。不過，港股大市成交仍然活躍，風險偏好尚算積極，資金於不同 板塊輪動。港股目前靜候催化劑，如潛在中美峰會，或內地政策驚喜，推 動進一步上試 25,000 點關口。 短期看好板塊 企業消息 ➢ 京東(9618)據報40億港元收購香港佳寶超市； 優必選(9880)折讓9.1%配股籌24.7億； 市場回顧 今日市場焦點 ➢ ASMPT(0522)業績； 宏觀焦點 王寧料泡泡瑪特(9992)今年海外銷售或超過國內； 金斯瑞生物科技(1548)：預計上半年除税前利潤同比顯著增加； 美圖公司(1357)料中期經調整淨利潤按年升65%至72%； 外圍市況展望 美國聯儲局6月一如預期維持息口不變，會後議息聲明指出美國經濟前 景面臨的不確定性已經減弱、但仍偏高。當局上調2025年至2027年核心 PCE預測，主席鮑威爾表示，加徵關稅對通脹的影響可能會更加頑固， 開始看到 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is challenging the 25,000 point mark, with active trading and a positive risk appetite despite limited corporate earnings improvement [2][6] - The market is awaiting catalysts such as potential China-US summits or unexpected policies from mainland China to drive further gains [2] Sector Focus - The focus for today includes the release of China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Macro Focus - The Chinese government is encouraging foreign investment through various measures to enhance project service guarantees and optimize land allocation [7] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable decline in the manufacturing sector [7] - The Ministry of Finance announced plans for a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year [7] - The People's Bank of China maintained the LPR at 3% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting innovation in future industries, including humanoid robots and digital transformation in various sectors [7] Corporate News - Xinyi Solar's product prices have dropped, leading to an expected profit decline of 56%-66% for the first half of the year [4] - Meituan, JD.com, and Ele.me were summoned by the market regulator to ensure rational competition in the food delivery sector [8] - HSBC is reportedly dissolving a team focused on managing geopolitical risks despite increasing threats [9] - Ant Group is collaborating with Citibank to enhance foreign exchange risk management using AI technology [9] - Meituan and Alibaba's Taobao are engaged in a price war, reportedly spending 1.6 billion RMB on promotions [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The index experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of 24,672 points before closing at 24,498 points, down 0.1% [5] Macro Focus - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations and reversing a two-month decline [3][8] - The unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 24 in mainland China decreased to 14.5%, marking a four-month decline [7] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 450.5 billion yuan, maintaining the interest rate at 1.4% [7] Company News - Luk Fook Holdings reported a 13% increase in overall retail value for the first quarter, reversing previous declines [9] - Federation Pharmaceutical is raising approximately 2.2 billion HKD through a share placement at a discount of 7.9% [9] - Ideal Auto has opened pre-orders for its i8 model, with expected prices starting from 350,000 yuan [9] - October Rice reported a projected net profit increase of at least 90% for the first half of the year [9] - Changjie Tong anticipates a profit of 31 to 37 million yuan for the first half of the year, driven by strong cloud service performance [9] Sector Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - The tourism sector is seeing an increase in cross-border traffic, indicating a potential rise in summer tourism [6] - Brokerage stocks are gaining traction as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3,500 points, continuing the trend of A+H listings [6]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times for the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US imports decreasing from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The inflow of capital from mainland China has slowed, and there is limited improvement in corporate earnings [2] Sector Focus - The tourism sector is expected to see increased activity as cross-border travel volumes rise, indicating a potential peak in summer tourism [8] - Brokerage stocks are also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,500 points, continuing the trend of A+H share listings [8] Corporate News - WeLab (9887) is starting its IPO today, aiming to raise up to 1.1 billion HKD [5] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0388) is discussing shortening the settlement cycle for the cash market [5] - Dechang Electric (0179) reported a 2% decline in revenue last quarter and plans to expand into humanoid robotics [5] - Xtep International (1368) experienced low single-digit growth in mainland sales for the second quarter [5] - The Fourth Paradigm (6682) is raising over 1.3 billion HKD through an 8.9% discounted placement [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The People's Bank of China conducted a 520.1 billion RMB reverse repo operation, maintaining a rate of 1.4% [10] - The State Council is implementing policies to strengthen domestic circulation and regulate competition in the new energy vehicle industry [10] - The National Energy Administration reported that the national power load reached a historical high of 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 55 million kilowatts from last year [10] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance issued 6 billion RMB in bonds in Macau, with a total subscription amount of 36.52 billion RMB, indicating strong investor interest [10] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year [6] - The Beige Book indicated a neutral to slightly pessimistic outlook for the US economy, with most regions experiencing stable or slightly declining economic activity [11] - The US consumer price index rose faster than expected, reflecting inflationary pressures from tariffs [11]

Company Insights - Lens Technology (6613) has a current price of HK$19.44 with a short-term target price of HK$21.80, indicating a potential upside of 19.1% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the lifting of the EDA ban in the US and the signing of the US-Vietnam trade agreement, which may ease concerns regarding upstream supply chain pricing and gross margin pressures [12] - Lens Technology is a leading provider of comprehensive precision manufacturing solutions in the global consumer electronics sector, with a market share of 13.0% in precision structural components and 20.9% in global smart automotive interaction systems [12] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.2% in revenue and 30.3% in core net profit from FY22 to FY24 [12] Industry Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The Chinese economy showed a GDP growth of 5.2% in Q2, outperforming expectations, while industrial output exceeded forecasts, although fixed asset investment and retail sales fell short [3] - The Hong Kong dollar has triggered the weak-side convertibility guarantee, leading the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to buy over HK$14.8 billion [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to limited progress in US-China trade talks and a lack of significant economic stimulus from mainland China [2][3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The market is influenced by the recent US-China trade negotiations, which have seen a reduction in tariffs but lack significant progress [2] - The inflow of capital from mainland China has slowed down, impacting market sentiment [2] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for Q2 and various economic indicators for the first half of the year are key market focuses [3] - The People's Bank of China reported that new loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations, with total new loans for the first half of the year reaching 12.92 trillion yuan [9] - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, while imports rose by 1.1% [9] Company News - Alibaba is reportedly entering the food delivery market with plans for a "Super Saturday" campaign [4] - Li Ning's sales for Q2 recorded low single-digit growth [4] - Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Guotai Junan are expected to report positive earnings [4] - New World Development is in negotiations for a 15.6 billion yuan loan that has not been secured on time [4] - Yujian is conducting a share placement at a 9.5% discount to raise 1.04 billion yuan [4] - Ascentage Pharma is also conducting a share placement at an 8.2% discount to raise over 1.5 billion yuan [4] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,203 points, up 0.26% with a trading volume of 210.4 billion HKD [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and other indices showed varying performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.67% [5] Macro Focus - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a cautious outlook on inflation and economic uncertainty [4] - The European Union is preparing a sanctions list against the US, potentially affecting various sectors including aviation and automotive [4] - The global smartphone market saw a 1% increase in shipments, while China's market experienced a 1% decline [10]

Company Recommendation - BYD Electronics (0285) is recommended for purchase with a target price of HKD 38.50, indicating a potential upside of 16.7% from the current price of HKD 33.95 [2][10] - The catalysts for growth include the lifting of the EDA ban in the US and the completion of the US-Vietnam trade agreement, which is expected to ease concerns regarding upstream supply chain pricing and gross margin pressures [2][10] - The company is diversifying into AI servers, liquid cooling, and Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR), with a strong partnership with NVIDIA, which is anticipated to drive new growth momentum [2][10] Valuation - The current price corresponds to a forecasted P/E ratio of 13.2x for FY25E and 11.2x for FY26E, with FY26E valuation being 29% lower than the 5-year average [2][10] - The expected revenue and net profit compound annual growth rates for FY24-FY27E are 11.6% and 22.4%, respectively [2][10] Market Review - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, influenced by US-China trade negotiations and limited progress in economic stimulus from mainland China [2][4] - The market is experiencing a slowdown in capital inflow from Northbound trading, with corporate earnings showing limited improvement [2][4] Industry Insights - The automotive sector in China is showing resilience, with a 22.2% year-on-year increase in vehicle exports in June, and production and sales also reflecting positive growth [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are seeing increased land sale revenues, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with a 40% increase in land sale amounts [11] - The gaming industry in Macau is expected to benefit from strong summer season revenues, with June's gaming income exceeding expectations [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but further progress remains uncertain, impacting corporate earnings and capital inflow [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,892 points, down 1.06% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% [6] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation [5][8] - China's June CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.1%, ending four months of deflation, while PPI fell by 3.6%, the largest drop in two years [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates China's economy could reach 140 trillion yuan this year, emphasizing the importance of innovation in economic growth [9] Corporate News - New World Development is reportedly seeking to sell its K11 properties in Hangzhou and Shenzhen, aiming to attract investment from private firms [10] - Longfor Group's debt restructuring plan has been approved by creditors, allowing for adjustments in repayment arrangements [11] - BYD has achieved significant advancements in smart parking technology, promising comprehensive safety coverage for users [10] Sector Focus - Macau's June gaming revenue exceeded expectations, indicating a strong recovery as the summer peak season approaches [7] - The online music sector faces intensified competition, prompting a potential shift of funds towards more visible tech stocks [7] - The global PC shipment volume increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Lenovo leading the market share at 24.8% [9]

Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The US-China trade talks have seen limited progress, and there is a lack of willingness from China to implement further economic stimulus measures [2] - The inflow of capital from the north has slowed down, indicating limited improvement in corporate earnings [2] Macro Focus - The US has announced tariffs on Japan and South Korea at 25%, and on Laos and Myanmar at 40%, effective August 1 [4][8] - The US Treasury Secretary anticipates discussions with Chinese officials to advance trade and other issues [4][8] - The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on inflation uncertainties [4][8] - The Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, continuing a trend of accumulation [4][8] Sector Highlights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [7] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7] - The power sector is seeing increased demand due to high temperatures [7] Company News - Lens Technology (6613) priced its shares at HKD 18.18, a discount of nearly 28% compared to A-shares [10] - Dongfeng Motor (0489) aims to maintain its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, with a focus on 1 million new energy vehicles [10] - Xiaomi (1810) reported a 20-fold increase in air conditioner sales in Northeast China due to unprecedented high temperatures [10] - NIO (9866) plans to officially launch its third factory in Hefei in September [10] - JD Logistics (1519) reported a 23.5% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for the second quarter [10]