供给放量非银需求不足银行压力增大 债市杠杆率降至近年新低 —— 2025 年 2 月债券托管数据点评 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 3 月 26 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 | 一、2 月债券托管增量升至 2.4 万亿 地方债与同业存单净融资均明显增加 4 | | --- | | 二、供给放量下商业银行大量承接加剧负债压力 非银需求整体仍然偏弱 4 | | 三、2 月债市杠杆率延续大幅回落 已处于 2020 年以来最低水平 9 | | 风险因素 9 | 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 首席分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 邮 | [供给放量非银需求不足银行压力增大 Table_Title] 债市杠杆率降至近年新低 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 48.302 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.66 yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is accelerating its overseas business expansion, with revenue growth in drilling, oil technology, shipping, and geophysical exploration segments at 9.4%, 7.4%, 20.9%, and 14.2% respectively. The shipping segment showed significant growth due to resource integration and increased operational volume [5] - The company maintains a high level of capital expenditure, which supports stable growth in oil service orders. In 2025, the company plans to spend 125 to 135 billion yuan on capital expenditures [8] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 48.302 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.1% [7] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 15.7%, with a projected increase to 16.5% in 2025 [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.23 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of 35.08%, an increase of 1.83 percentage points from the previous year [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 4.005 billion yuan, 4.322 billion yuan, and 4.652 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 7.9%, and 7.6% respectively. The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.84 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 0.97 yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 48.302 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.66 yuan, reflecting a 4.8% increase [3][4] - The company has accelerated its overseas business expansion, with revenue growth in drilling, oil technology, shipping, and geophysical segments of 9.4%, 7.4%, 20.9%, and 14.2% respectively. The shipping segment showed significant growth due to resource integration and increased operational volume [5] - The company’s international revenue accounted for 22.5% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, while domestic revenue grew by 8.0% [5] - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a projected capital spending of 125 to 135 billion yuan in 2025, which supports stable growth in performance [8] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 48.302 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 53.022 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 9.8% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.005 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.7% [7] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 15.7% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.84 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.07 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company's high-end strategy is yielding results, with a focus on improving profit margins through cost management and operational efficiency [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 38.635 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.76% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.739 billion RMB, down 8.03% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin improved to 42.64%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to better raw material costs [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 38.635 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.76% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.739 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.03% [3] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, up from 41.36% in 2023 [3] - The company expects EPS to grow from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 2.20 RMB by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for earnings growth [3][4] - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue, projecting 42.523 billion RMB in 2025, 44.721 billion RMB in 2026, and 47.595 billion RMB in 2027 [3][4] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings, with a notable increase in sales of premium beers and a 35% year-on-year growth in its high-end liquor product "Zhai Fu" [2][3] - The operational efficiency is highlighted by a significant improvement in cash flow, with net cash inflow from operating activities increasing by 67% year-on-year to 6.928 billion RMB in 2024 [2][3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's profit growth may exceed market expectations due to the gradual recovery of on-premise consumption channels and further cost optimization in 2025 [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash position, which will support an increase in dividend payouts in the future [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is focusing on high-end products, with a steady improvement in profit margins due to cost optimization and a favorable product mix [2][3] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 38.635 billion RMB, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.76% [3] - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will grow from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 2.20 RMB by 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 42.64%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to improved raw material costs [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 4.739 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.03% decline compared to the previous year [3] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to increase by 67% to 6.846 billion RMB, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 4.82%, 5.17%, and 6.43% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The report projects that the company's EBITDA will increase from 8.571 billion RMB in 2025 to 11.668 billion RMB by 2027 [4] - The report indicates that the company's return on equity (ROE) will improve from 14.95% in 2024 to 19.33% in 2027 [4]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 药明合联 (2268.HK) [Table_Author] 唐爱金 医药首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 全方位高增长，订单储备充足，产能持续 扩张 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 25 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]3 月 24 日，公司发布 2024 年全年业绩简报。2024 年公司 实现营业收入 40.52 亿元，同比增长 91%；实现毛利润 12.40 亿元，同比 增长 122%，对应毛利率达到 30.6%；实现净利润 10.69 亿元，同比增长 277%，对应净利率达到 26.4%；实现经 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 药明合联 (2268.HK) [Table_Author] 唐爱金 医药首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 全方位高增长，订单储备充足，产能持续 扩张 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 25 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]3 月 24 日，公司发布 2024 年全年业绩简报。2024 年公司 实现营业收入 40.52 亿元，同比增长 91%；实现毛利润 12.40 亿元，同比 增长 122%，对应毛利率达到 30.6%；实现净利润 10.69 亿元，同比增长 277%，对应净利率达到 26.4%；实现经 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 高能环境(603588) 投资评级 —— 上次评级 [Table_Author] [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 环保工程板块及计提减值拖累公司业绩，资源 化板块盈利能力稳步提升 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 25 日 [Table_S 事件：2025 ummar年y]3 月 20 日高能环境发布 2024 年度报告，2024 年公司实现 营业收入 145 亿元，同比增长 37.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for GaoNeng Environment (603588) is not explicitly stated in the report [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the environmental engineering segment has negatively impacted the company's performance, while the resource utilization segment has shown steady improvement in profitability [1][3]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.04%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.52% to 482 million yuan due to the decline in the environmental engineering segment and goodwill impairment related to acquisitions [1][3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability for the resource utilization segment, driven by operational improvements and new project launches [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 14.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 482 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.5% [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.4%, down from 18.2% in 2023, while the return on equity (ROE) was 5.3% [5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 609 million yuan, which represents 126.46% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6]. Segment Performance - The hazardous waste resource utilization segment generated revenue of 11.137 billion yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 72.17%, with a gross margin of 9.14% [3]. - The environmental operation service segment achieved revenue of 1.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, while the environmental engineering segment saw a revenue decline of 34.26% to 1.633 billion yuan [3][6]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company's revenue will reach 16.747 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 15.5%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase to 657 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 36.3% [5][6]. - The company is expected to continue focusing on enhancing its operational efficiency and expanding its service offerings in the environmental sector [3][6].

·证券研究报告 公司研究 公司点评报告 中国神华(601088) 上次评级 买入 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 中国神华：⼀体化战略夯实盈利根基，⾏业⻰头彰 显久期价值 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 24 日 事件： 2025 年 3 月 21 日 ，中国神华发布年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收 入 3383.75 亿元，同比下降 1.37%，实现归母净利润 586.71 亿元，同比下降 1.71%；扣非后净利润 601.25 亿元，同比下降 4.36%。经营活动现金流量净额 933.48 亿元，同比上涨 4%；基本每股收益 2.95 元/股，同比下降 1.70%。资 产负债率为 23.42%，同比下降 0.66pct。 运输板块：2024 年公司铁路分部实现铁路周转量 31 ...