Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.68% closing at 3380.82 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 1.62% at 10186.45 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.92% at 2043.25 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 1406 stocks that rose while 3856 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 1152.4 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 164.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the beauty care, coal, public utilities, and agriculture sectors saw gains, with increases of 3.68%, 0.42%, 0.12%, and 0.11% respectively [1][14] - The computer, communication, electronics, media, and defense industries experienced the largest declines, with drops of 2.97%, 2.45%, 2.12%, 1.93%, and 1.80% respectively [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included continuous boards, medical beauty, dairy, animal vaccines, rare earths, and food processing, among others [2][11] - Conversely, sectors such as financial technology, IDC, and stock trading software experienced pullbacks [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.86% to close at 3403.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to 10354.22 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.01% to finish at 2083.14 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 13167 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 252 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][14]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, non-bank financials, transportation, food and beverage, and comprehensive retail sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.99%, 1.79%, 1.68%, and 1.31% respectively. Conversely, the defense industry, beauty care, machinery equipment, social services, and electric equipment sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 0.74%, 0.39%, 0.37%, 0.17%, and 0.16% respectively [1][14]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included insurance, stock trading software, intelligent logistics, and financial technology, among others. Notably, sectors such as large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and military-civilian integration saw a pullback [2][11].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17% to close at 3374.87 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.13% to 10288.08 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.12% to 2062.26 points. Overall, there were 1940 stocks that rose and 3233 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 1.2915 trillion yuan, down approximately 16.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][12]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the banking, beauty care, pharmaceutical biology, transportation, and coal industries led the gains, with increases of 1.52%, 1.18%, 0.90%, 0.72%, and 0.62% respectively. Conversely, the defense, computer, machinery, electronics, and communication sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 3.07%, 0.80%, 0.66%, 0.64%, and 0.61% respectively [1][12]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included continuous limit-up stocks, gene testing, medical services, banking, COVID-19 testing, photovoltaic, generic drugs, new energy, and major infrastructure central enterprises [2][11].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】本轮物价低迷与前两轮有何 不同：特征、原因和应对》2025-05-11 《【粤开宏观】新一轮一揽子金融政策：重 现 924 及增量举措》2025-05-07 《【粤开宏观】"内卷式"竞争：风起何方？ 《【粤开宏观】博弈视角看"关税战"：特 朗普的意图与各经济体的不同反应》 2025-04-27 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的七大信 号》2025-04-25 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中美互降关税：为何要 降？还有哪些没解决？未来会如何？ 事件 潮归何处？》2025-05-05 5 月 12 日，中国和美国发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，要点包括： 1）美国将本轮对华加征的 125%的"对等关税 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.82% closing at 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.72% at 10301.16 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.63% at 2064.71 points [1][12] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3084 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 116.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included defense and military, electric equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, and automotive, with gains of 4.80%, 2.69%, 2.24%, 2.08%, and 1.91% respectively [1][12] - The sectors that experienced declines were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceuticals, public utilities, and beauty care, with decreases of 0.49%, 0.27%, 0.26%, and 0.04% respectively [1] Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors included aircraft carriers, top ten military industrial groups, large aircraft, stock trading software, military-civilian integration, TWS headsets, wireless charging, satellite internet, and satellite navigation [2][11] - Conversely, sectors such as gold and jewelry, generic drugs, and biological breeding experienced pullbacks [11]

Group 1: Current Price Trends - The GDP deflator index has been negative for 8 consecutive quarters, marking a historical high duration[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 31 months, with a monthly average decline of 1.34 percentage points from coal, black metal, and non-metal industries[19] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to a growth center of 0.1%, significantly lower than the average growth of 2.6% from 2010 to 2019[30] Group 2: Contributing Factors to Price Decline - The real estate market has seen a significant change in supply-demand dynamics, with real estate investment growth negative for three consecutive years, impacting related industries[42] - Insufficient consumer demand has led to a decline in CPI, with the average consumption propensity dropping to 63.1% in Q1 2025, down from 65.2% in 2019[47] - "Involution" competition in emerging industries has caused prices to drop beyond reasonable levels, with lithium battery prices falling by 39.5% and solar module prices by 29.7% in 2024[52] Group 3: Impact of External Factors - The "tariff war" initiated by the U.S. has negatively impacted export demand, leading to increased domestic supply-demand imbalances and downward pressure on prices[63] - The average monthly increase in pork prices from April 2024 to April 2025 was only 11.3%, significantly lower than previous cycles, reducing its support for overall CPI[36] Group 4: Recommendations for Policy Action - There is a need for stronger macroeconomic regulation to promote reasonable price recovery, including policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize asset prices[63] - Supply-side reforms should focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and encouraging mergers and acquisitions to restore price levels[10]

Market Overview - The main indices showed a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.69%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.87% [1] - In terms of industry performance, the top sectors included Beauty Care, Banking, and Textile & Apparel, while Media, Retail, and Real Estate lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors showed mixed results, with Continuous Board, Banking, and Speculative Concepts performing relatively well, whereas Semiconductor Equipment, Operating Systems, and Cloud Computing concepts underperformed [1]

Market Overview - The main indices showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.65% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry sectors, telecommunications, national defense and military industry, and electric equipment performed well, while oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and basic chemicals lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors showed varied performance, with large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and satellite navigation concepts performing relatively well, while gold and jewelry, chemical raw materials, and biological breeding concepts performed poorly [1] Strategy Commentary - The report includes a market review based on data from Wind and the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, highlighting the overall market trends and sector performances [7]

Market Overview - The main indices showed varied performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.51% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, defense and military, banking, and basic chemicals performed well, while social services, pharmaceuticals, and communications lagged behind [1] Concept Sector Performance - Overall, sectors related to large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and consecutive board concepts performed relatively well; in contrast, the aviation transport, internet celebrity economy, and marketing communication concepts showed weaker performance [1]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[11] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which will lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points[11] - A new tool of 500 billion yuan for "service consumption and pension re-loans" was established to boost consumer spending[6] Market Stabilization Efforts - The financial regulatory authorities introduced eight incremental policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, and foreign trade[3] - The stock market responded positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.8% and 0.51% respectively on the announcement day[4] - The measures are designed to counteract the potential decline in external demand due to increased tariffs from the U.S.[3] Economic Context and Challenges - The current economic backdrop includes a significant impact from U.S. tariffs, with the main challenge shifting from internal demand issues to external trade pressures[4] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating contraction, and the CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[12] - The overall deposit reserve ratio will decrease from 6.6% to 6.2%, still above the historical low of 6.0%[13] Consumer and Business Support - The policy aims to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the service sector, which accounts for over 50% of total consumption[6] - An additional 3 trillion yuan in re-loan quotas for small and micro enterprises was announced, with a focus on reducing financing costs and improving access to credit[17] - The government will provide targeted support for businesses affected by the tariff war, ensuring financial assistance and insurance coverage[7] Real Estate Market Stability - The measures include lowering mortgage rates to alleviate repayment pressure on households, thereby boosting home-buying intentions[21] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%[22] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged downturn, with first-tier cities experiencing a rebound in second-hand home prices[20]