核心观点 公司点评报告 · 有色金属行业 收购 Allied Gold，强化黄金板块综合实力 2026 年 1 月 27 日 （1）马里 Sadiola 金矿一期选厂技改已基本完成，采选规模由 500 万吨/年提 升至 570 万吨/年，黄金年产量有望提升至 6.2~7.2 吨。二期投产后，项目预 计前四年平均年产金 12.4 吨，矿山生命周期内年均产金 9.3 吨，全维持成本 预计将由 25Q3 的 2,067 美元/盎司下降至 1,200 美元/盎司。 （2）科特迪瓦金矿综合体（包括 Bonikro 和 Agbaou 项目）两座金矿采选规 模均约为 250 万吨/年，拟进一步整合运营，力争实现 Bonikro 金矿年均产金 3.1 吨、Agbaou 金矿年均产金 2.7 吨的产量目标。 （3）埃塞俄比亚 Kurmuk 金矿是重要增量项目，计划于 2026 年下半年投产， 设计采选规模为 640 万吨/年，预计前四年平均年产金 9 吨，矿山生命周期内 年均产金 7.5 吨，全维持成本预计将低于 950 美元/盎司。 紫金矿业（股票代码：601899.SH） | | | 分析师 华立 ：021-2025262 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, particularly recommending leading passenger car companies and those involved in the intelligent and humanoid robotics supply chains [5]. Core Insights - In 2025, China's automotive sales are projected to increase by 9.4% year-on-year to 34.4 million units, with domestic sales rising by 6.7% to 27.3 million units, driven by the continued implementation of vehicle replacement policies [1][2][9]. - Exports are expected to grow by 12.1% to 7.1 million units, surpassing 7 million for the first time, supported by the increasing international market influence of domestic brands and high growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) exports [2][10]. - NEV sales are forecasted to rise by 28.2% to 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate increasing by 7.0 percentage points to 47.9% [2][10]. - For 2026, automotive sales are expected to grow by 1% to 34.75 million units, with NEV sales projected to increase by 15.2% to 1.9 million units, despite some policy adjustments that may have diminishing returns [3][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecast - 2025 automotive sales in China are expected to reach 34.4 million units, with domestic sales at 27.3 million units and exports at 7.1 million units [2][10]. - NEV sales are anticipated to hit 16.49 million units, with a penetration rate of 47.9% [2][10]. Market Dynamics - The strong domestic demand and high export growth are expected to sustain a high level of market activity in 2025 [2][10]. - The international market influence of domestic brands is projected to continue growing, particularly in the NEV sector [3][11]. Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies are expected to provide ongoing support for the domestic market, although adjustments in tax incentives may lead to marginally reduced effects [3][11]. - The 2026 forecast includes a slight increase in automotive sales, supported by continued policy optimization and favorable export conditions [3][11]. Stock Performance - The automotive sector's performance over the past two weeks showed a growth of 2.94%, ranking 12th among 30 sectors, with commercial vehicles performing the best [12][14]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like Aikelan and Junda, while others like Tianpu and Yueling saw declines [12][14]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, with price-to-earnings ratios for different segments, indicating the relative valuation of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and parts suppliers [15][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is experiencing a decline in sales area, with a total of 880 million square meters sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [5][9] - In December 2025, the monthly sales area was 93.99 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 39.88% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.60% [5] - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 839.37 billion yuan, down 12.60% year-on-year, with December's sales revenue at 88.07 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44.09% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.60% [5] - The average sales price for the year was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 0.20% month-on-month and 4.27% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates improvements in market expectations due to policy support and effective supply management [5] Sales Summary - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [5] - December 2025 saw a monthly sales area of 93.99 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 39.88% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.60% [5] - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 839.37 billion yuan, with December's revenue at 88.07 billion yuan [5][9] Investment Summary - The total real estate development investment for 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, down 17.20% year-on-year [13] - In December 2025, the monthly development investment was 41.97 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 16.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.79% [13] - New construction area for 2025 was 58.77 million square meters, down 20.40% year-on-year, with December's new construction area at 5.313 million square meters [16] Funding Summary - Total funding for real estate companies in 2025 was 931.17 billion yuan, down 13.40% year-on-year [22] - Domestic loans accounted for 140.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year [22] - Self-raised funds totaled 331.49 billion yuan, down 12.20% year-on-year, while prepayments and deposits were 280.89 billion yuan, down 16.20% year-on-year [22] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with strong operational management and financial advantages, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others [39] - It suggests focusing on quality developers like Greentown China and China Overseas Development, as well as property management leaders like Greentown Service [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, a 72.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan in Q3, a 96.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-3 2025 was 145.49 billion yuan, with a Q3 revenue of 50.71 billion yuan [1]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The company achieved a production completion rate of 80% for copper and 79% for diamonds in the first three quarters [2]. Pricing and Cost Management - The LME copper price increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton in Q3 2025, while domestic tungsten prices surged by 40% to 330,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The company successfully reduced operating costs by 0.5% in Q3 2025, with overall recovery rates improving from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing new projects, including the expansion of TFM and KFM copper production, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD for KFM's second phase, expected to be operational by 2027 [7]. - The company anticipates net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the communication industry [3]. Core Insights - The enthusiasm for the industrialization of hollow-core fiber optics is high both domestically and internationally, with domestic manufacturers expected to leverage cost and technological advantages to capture a significant market share [2]. - Major companies like Microsoft are actively pursuing the industrialization of hollow-core fiber optics, with plans to increase global production to meet the growing demand for network infrastructure [5]. - The hollow-core fiber optics technology promises to significantly enhance transmission speed and reduce latency, making it a competitive medium for global optical communication [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The hollow-core fiber optics market is currently small, but manufacturers with technological and patent advantages are in a leading position. Companies like Lumensity and Changfei Fiber Optics are at the forefront, while domestic players such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology are also making strategic moves [2]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand for multi-mode fiber optics is increasing, and as the industrialization of hollow-core fiber optics accelerates, domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve large-scale shipments and capture a larger market share [2]. Technological Advancements - Hollow-core fiber optics utilize air or inert gas instead of solid fiber cores, which allows for faster signal transmission and reduced latency compared to traditional glass fiber optics. This technology is particularly beneficial for data centers, which are expanding in scale and energy consumption [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Changfei Fiber Optics, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Zhongtian Technology for potential investment opportunities in the hollow-core fiber optics sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has been released, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the industry's added value over the next two years. This plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," guiding structural adjustments and high-quality development in the steel sector [12][14]. - The report highlights the acceleration of digital transformation in the steel industry, with significant investments in AI and digital technologies by leading companies, indicating a shift towards data-driven operations [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021 Steel Supply-Side Capacity Regulation - In 2021, China's crude steel production fell to 1.035 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.8%, due to stringent capacity control measures aimed at achieving carbon neutrality goals [4][8]. - The profitability of the steel industry improved significantly, with total profits in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reaching 424.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1% [9][10]. 2. Stable Growth Work Plan Released, Leaders Benefit from Production Regulation - The "Stable Growth Work Plan" sets a target for the steel industry's added value to grow by about 4% annually from 2025 to 2026, focusing on economic stability and balanced market supply and demand [12][14]. - The plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and production, promoting industry transformation and upgrading, which will benefit leading steel companies [15][16]. 3. Accelerated Digital Transformation, AI + Steel Gaining Momentum - The digital transformation in the steel industry is expected to significantly enhance overall digital levels by 2026, with a focus on integrating new information technologies [19][20]. - Leading companies like Baosteel and Shougang are actively pushing forward their AI and digital transformation initiatives, with Baosteel planning to implement over 300 AI application scenarios by 2025 [27][28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Shougang, Hebei Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing capacity regulation and industry transformation [31].

Macro Overview - In March, China's export value reached 313.9 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4%, while imports were 211.3 billion USD, showing a decline of 4.3% [2][3] - The trade surplus for the first quarter was 273.16 billion USD, compared to 183.18 billion USD in the same period last year [2][3] - The export growth was supported by a combination of factors including preemptive exports due to tariff uncertainties and stable external demand [3][4] Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US saw a significant rebound with a growth rate of 9.1%, while exports to the EU increased by 10.3% [4][5] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose by 11.6%, with notable increases to Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines [4] - The overall external demand remains resilient, as indicated by the stable global manufacturing PMI [3][4] Sector Performance - The machinery sector reported a 18.5% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in March, indicating strong domestic demand [26][27] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from policy support and increased investment in AI and semiconductor industries, with a focus on high-performing value stocks [10][11] - The precious metals sector is experiencing upward pressure on gold prices due to increased demand from global ETFs and central banks amid rising geopolitical tensions [13][15][16] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy-driven infrastructure investments, including engineering machinery and urban rail signaling systems [29] - The technology sector is highlighted for its long-term growth potential, particularly in AI and semiconductor fields [10][11] - The gold sector is poised for a valuation reassessment as prices stabilize above 3000 USD per ounce, benefiting companies in this space [15][16] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining reported a significant increase in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, driven by higher copper and gold prices, with a focus on expanding production capacity [37][38][40] - Wanfu Biology achieved steady revenue growth, with a notable increase in overseas sales, indicating successful global expansion strategies [42][44]