Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Water Affairs (855 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 7.22, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current price of HKD 5.82 [4][6][15]. Core Insights - The economic stability in China is expected to enhance the attractiveness of dividend-paying public utility stocks, with China Water Affairs benefiting from increased sewage treatment revenue due to the commencement of operations at the ExxonMobil petrochemical project in Huizhou [1]. - The company is experiencing a trend of water price increases across various projects, supported by new market-oriented policies from the government, which is likely to bolster revenue [2]. - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase, with expectations of reaching at least 30% in the coming years, providing further investment appeal [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25, the company forecasts a revenue of HKD 12.284 billion, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the previous year, with a net profit of HKD 1.475 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.8% [5][11]. - The company’s operating income is expected to grow significantly in the sewage treatment segment, with a projected increase of 64.8% in FY26 [11]. - The report highlights a decrease in construction revenue by 35.7% in the first half of FY25, leading to reduced capital expenditure expectations [3][5]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue distribution indicates a shift towards more stable income sources, with sewage treatment expected to contribute significantly to overall revenue growth [11]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 upwards by 1.9% and 4.4% respectively, reflecting improved operational performance [4][11]. Market Context - The report notes that over 20 cities have initiated water price adjustment procedures, indicating a broader trend towards higher water tariffs, which will support the company's revenue growth [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic recovery in China, which is expected to enhance its valuation in the public utility sector [4].

2025 年 3 月 13 日 星期四 每日大市点评 3 月 12 日，港股大盘无法承接周二强势，昨日先冲高后回落，恒生指数最终下跌 181 点或 0.8%，收报 23,600 点。恒生科 指下跌 2.0%，收报 5,845 点。大市成交金额有 2,785 多亿港元，港股通大幅流入超过 262 亿港元。虽然港股通持续南下 撑市，但港股的升势似乎有所放缓，整体运行节奏也改变，从 1 月以来的单边上升转化为多空震荡。无论从预测 PE、风 险溢价、股息率及 AH 溢价指数都反映港股的第一波估值基本修复到位，当前进入经济数据及业绩的发布期，市场焦点都 会逐渐回到基本面，港股整体估值进一步上修需要基本面和盈利面的配合。另外，连日大跌的美股或到达反弹阶段，不 排除有部分资金或回流美股。昨日恒生香港中资企业指数(红筹股)仅下跌 0.3%，说明资金开始转向防御性或落后股份。 盘面上看，券商、黄金相关、材料、通讯设备、公用事业、基建、部分汽车及智能驾驶概念股表现较好，而消费、医 疗、地产及科技等顺周期都有较大跌幅。近期显著上升的消费类半新股大多出现大成交冲高回落，如布鲁可(325 HK)、 毛戈平(1318 HK)及蜜雪(20 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a significant recovery in valuation, with the Hang Seng Index and Technology Index rising by 20.6% and 34.7% respectively since the beginning of 2025, outperforming major global markets [4][12][20] - The market's focus has shifted back to corporate earnings and macroeconomic conditions, with the expectation of a gradual return of foreign capital to the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector [5][6][20] - The report anticipates a "Davis Double Play" for technology stocks, driven by a combination of capital expenditure expansion, AI-driven cost reduction, and a favorable application landscape, leading to a target for the Hang Seng Index to reach 23,000 points by year-end [4][6][20] Group 2 - The report highlights that the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, with leading economic indicators and manufacturing PMIs rebounding, although the recovery remains fragile [5][23] - The government has set a growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a historic high deficit rate of 4%, focusing on infrastructure investment and the real estate sector [5][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and technology in driving economic growth, with significant government support for emerging technologies and traditional industry upgrades [32][33] Group 3 - The report notes that the AI sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle, with significant contributions from major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Xiaomi, which are increasing their investments in AI infrastructure and technology research [6][20] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, will likely experience a divergence in performance, with infrastructure stocks benefiting from increased capital expenditure [20][32] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued sectors and stocks that have lagged behind, particularly in technology and AI, as well as sectors benefiting from increased infrastructure spending [7][20]

每日大市点评 3 月 11 日，受隔夜美股大跌影响低开的港股日内逐渐收窄跌幅并转涨，恒生指数基本平收，恒生科技指数升 1.4%或 81 点，收 5,967 点。大市成交额 3,070 亿元，成交量仍保持活跃。但港股通则转为净流出逾 40 亿港元，结束自上周三以来 持续净流入。盘面上表现分化，大型科技股早盘随外围走弱，最终涨跌参半，快手（1024 HK）涨超 5%，腾讯（700 HK）、百度（9888 HK）飘红，但美团（3690 HK）、京东（9618 HK）均跌超 1%，阿里巴巴（9988 HK）微跌。内需相关 的部分食品饮料、餐饮等龙头股升幅明显，半导体、机器人等热门概念板块有所回暖。国际金价受压，导致黄金股普 跌，有色金属股跟跌。 在外围市场大跌背景下，港股大盘仍能相对企稳，说明了市场对于本轮中国 AI 浪潮科技突围的叙事拥有较强的信心。当 前港股估值已迅速修复，恒生指数及 MSCI 中国指数的预测 PE 分别为 10.4 倍及 11.7 倍，处于 57.4%及 64.4%的七年分位 数。恒生指数及 MSCI 中国指数风险溢价分别为 5.4%及 4.4%，处于 0.8%及 1.1%的七年分位数。港股估值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company [4][7][18] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant improvement in FY25 performance, with a projected rebound in gross margins and net profit [3][4] - FY24 saw a substantial decline in net profit by 73.8% to 1.01 billion RMB, attributed to falling photovoltaic glass prices and increased impairment losses [1][6] - The company plans to increase its effective annual melting capacity slightly in FY25, with no new production lines planned but a revival of existing lines [2] Financial Performance Summary - FY24 total revenue decreased by 9.3% to 21.92 billion RMB, with photovoltaic glass revenue down 11.9% to 18.82 billion RMB [1][11] - Gross profit and gross margin for FY24 fell by 46.3% and 10.9 percentage points to 3.47 billion RMB and 15.8%, respectively [1][11] - The company anticipates a gross margin rebound in FY25, with an expected increase of 4.5 percentage points to 12.1% for photovoltaic glass [3][11] - FY25 net profit is projected to rebound by 89.7% to 1.91 billion RMB, followed by a 15.9% increase in FY26 [3][11] Target Price and Valuation - The target price has been raised from 3.22 HKD to 3.43 HKD, corresponding to a 15x FY25 target P/E ratio [4][7] - The current stock price is 3.47 HKD, indicating a 1.2% downside potential from the target price [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting a stabilization and potential growth in the market [5][36]. Core Insights - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.9% and a month-on-month increase of 40.0% [1][13]. - Shenzhen leads in new housing sales among first-tier cities, with a year-on-year growth of 120.2% [2][18]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for residential properties in major cities has improved, indicating a healthier market [3][23]. - Land transaction volume continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 39.0% across 100 major cities [4][26]. - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, indicating ongoing policy support [5][32]. - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index outperformed the broader market, rising by 6.2% [6][34]. - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to continue policy support for the real estate market [7][36]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales - New housing sales volume in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, up 36.9% year-on-year and 40.0% month-on-month [1][13]. - Year-on-year growth rates for first, second, and third-tier cities were +52.2%, +25.2%, and +51.8% respectively [1][13]. First-tier City Performance - Shenzhen's cumulative new housing sales reached 630,000 square meters, up 120.2% year-on-year [2][18]. - Beijing's sales volume was 700,000 square meters, down 29.6% year-on-year, while Shanghai and Guangzhou saw increases of 25.5% and 56.3% respectively [2][18]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 108.3, down from 188.7 year-on-year [3][23]. - First-tier cities had an inventory-to-sales ratio of 70.7, significantly lower than the previous year's 161.7 [3][23]. Land Transactions - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 19.08 million square meters, down 39.0% year-on-year [4][26]. - First-tier cities saw a 61.5% year-on-year decline in land transactions [4][26]. Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market [5][32]. - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index's performance indicates a positive trend in the sector [6][34]. - The upcoming National People's Congress is anticipated to reinforce supportive policies for the real estate market [7][36].

中国房地产周报 | 2025 年 2 月 18 日 中国房地产周报 | 2025 年 2 月 10 日至 16 日 更应关注未来两三周数字 新房成交量持续同比大幅上涨，主因去年同期为春节假期 上周(至 2 月 16 日)30 大中城市商品新房成交量达 120 万平方米，同比上涨 1,011.9%，优 于前周的 13.4%同比下跌，环比增长 82.6%，差于前周的 380.4%环比上升。上周同比大幅 上涨的主因相信是去年同期为春节假期。不同类别城市也同比大幅上涨。上周同比变化 率：一、二、三线城市分别为+1,096.3%、+804.1%、+1,789.6(前周同比：+57.3%、- 27.8%、-18.8%)。 一线新房成交量：不同城市的同比变化差异扩大 按面积，上周十大城市商品房存销比为 320.0，高于去年同期的 214.5 及前周的 224.5。 今年春节假期已完结，但存销比同比及环比仍然上升，未如理想。 土地成交量同比上升 上周 100 大中城市成交土地规划建筑面积为 1,609 万平方米，同比增长 217.9%，环比下 跌 8.0%，同比变化优于前周的 26.1%同比上升。 国务院常务会议：更好满足住 ...

医药| 2025 年 2 月 18 日 医药| 行业点评 重点推荐年报预期良好的企业 2025 年 1 月全球与中国医疗融资呈回暖态势 根据著名医疗数据库动脉网统计，2025年1月全球医疗健康行业披露的融资总额为80.04亿美元， 较 12 月环比上升 100.5%。中国市场 1 月披露的医疗健康行业融资总额为 9.56 亿美元，较 11-12 月 分别上升 90.8%与 71.3%。全球医疗健康行业的融资总额在 2022-23 年大幅下降后，2024 年已同比 回升 1.4%，因此 1 月是在持续回暖。中国的医疗健康行业融资总额 2022 年后持续下滑，2024 年 仍同比下降 33.0%，回暖速度慢于全球。虽然如此，2025 年 1 月中国市场的医疗健康行业融资情 况也呈回暖状态。 国家医保局将积极推进医保跨省共济，将一定程度利好药品销售 根据国家医保局新闻，截止 2 月 4 日，广东、上海、江苏、西藏等 14 个省、自治区和直辖市的 117 个统筹地区（地级以上行政区及一定人口以上的县或市）已开通医保跨省共济。国家医保局 2 月 14 日再次指出将继续推进跨省共济的普及，2025 年底前 90%以上的统 ...

2025 年 2 月 17 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 中国 AI 投资概念火热，叠加美国总统特朗普的对等关税延迟等因素，共同刺激港股继续向上，上周四美国最新 PPI 部分 分项数据指向 1 月的核心 PCE 增速有望继续下行，带动美元指数破位向下，同期非美市场货币上升，资金流利好港股表 现。上周恒生指数全周大涨 7.0%，收报 22,620 点，创去年 10 月 7 日以来收市新高。恒生科指全周上升 7.3%，收报 5,526 点，创自 2022 年 2 月中旬以来收市新高。上周大市日均成交金额按周大增 64.8%至 2,980 多亿港元。从市场内部升市结 构看来，AI+是本轮港股的主线，包括信息科技、医疗保健、电讯、工业等综合行业分类指数表现突出。 ➢ 近期研报摘要分享 【中泰国际】中国房地产周报 (2025.02.03 - 02.09)：假期效应影响整体成交，但一线城市展现活力 当前内部处于政策及经济数据的空窗期，AI 提高中国企业营运效率成部分外资及对冲基金增配的逻辑，而外部特朗普采 取"攘外必先安内"的政策，对华压力边际舒缓，都给予港股向上的窗口。上周港股成交持续增加，人民币转强，中国 10 年期 ...

Market Overview - On December 17, the Hang Seng Index fell by 95 points or 0.5%, closing at 19,971 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 25 points or 0.6% to 4,389 points[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 132 billion, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision[1] Sector Performance - Technology stocks, including Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Baidu, all declined by over 1%[1] - Gold stocks continued to drop due to strong expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut, with Shandong Gold falling for three consecutive days[1] - Tourism and dining stocks performed well, with Tongcheng Travel rising by 3.8% and Haidilao increasing by 3.1% due to the relaxation of visa policies[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. December Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3%, down from 49.7%, marking the lowest level since 2020, while the Services PMI rose to 58.5%, exceeding expectations and indicating strong growth potential[2] - The service sector, which accounts for 80% of the U.S. GDP, is expected to enhance the probability of an economic soft landing and reduce the necessity for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] Investment Insights - Central state-owned enterprises are expected to remain in focus due to ongoing reforms and new market management regulations, benefiting sectors with stable cash flows like utilities and telecommunications[2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) saw a 1.7% increase, indicating a counter-trend performance amid a declining market[1] Stock Recommendations - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 965.9 billion and RMB 1,059.1 billion in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a net profit of RMB 60.7 billion and RMB 69.3 billion[11] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 50%, offering a dividend yield of approximately 5%-6%[11]