Market Overview - On July 7, the Hong Kong stock market continued its volatile pattern, with the Hang Seng Index slightly down by 0.1% to close at 23,887 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.3% to 5,229 points, indicating a rebound in the market towards the end of the trading session [1] - Notably, southbound funds saw a rapid increase in buying, with a net inflow of 12 billion HKD, marking the highest single-day inflow in nearly two months [1] - The real estate sector showed strong performance following the Ministry of Housing's statement to "promote the stabilization of the real estate market," while the beverage sector also surged, with companies like Cha Bai Dao and Nayuki's Tea seeing significant gains [1] Macro Dynamics - In the real estate sector, the new home transaction volume saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a reported 1.89 million square meters sold in 30 major cities, down by 1.1% year-on-year, which is an improvement from the previous week's 23.1% decline [3] - Different city categories showed varied performance, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing year-on-year changes of +3.6%, +19.6%, and -41.5%, respectively [3] Industry Dynamics - The consumer sector remained stable amid ongoing negotiations regarding "reciprocal tariffs" with the U.S., while new consumption stocks performed well, with notable gains in companies like Lao Pu Gold and Pop Mart [4] - The new energy vehicle sector also showed steady performance, with new force car manufacturers rising between 0.5% and 5% [4] - The healthcare sector followed the Hang Seng Index down by 2.0%, which is considered a normal correction after consecutive gains [4] Energy Sector Insights - The report maintains a recommendation to absorb power generation stocks, as summer electricity demand is favorable for the sector, but emphasizes the need to closely monitor coal price trends [6] - In June, coal inventory at major ports turned from a year-on-year decline to a slight increase, with coal prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline and remaining stable month-on-month [6] Renewable Energy Focus - The photovoltaic sector has seen weak product prices, but there is increased attention from the central government regarding industry competition, which may enhance investment sentiment in related stocks [7] - The nuclear power sector is gaining importance, with uranium prices reaching a new high of 78 USD per pound, driven by geopolitical events and renewed focus on nuclear energy development [8] Natural Gas Demand - Industrial demand for natural gas remains stable, with the manufacturing PMI in China reported at 49.7 in June, slightly above the previous year's figure [9] Stock Recommendations - Weisheng Holdings is highlighted as a potential Hong Kong Stock Connect target, benefiting from the global increase in electricity generation [10] - China National Nuclear Corporation is expected to benefit from rising uranium prices and has established a sales framework agreement for natural uranium [10] - Huaneng International is positioned to benefit from summer electricity demand, with a reported 8.2% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025 [11] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The healthcare sector outperformed the Hang Seng Index in June, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 8.4%, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains [13] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have introduced policies to support innovative drug development, which is expected to boost sales of high-priced innovative drugs [14] - Key stocks such as China Biologic Products and Innovent Biologics are recommended due to their strong growth prospects and recent positive developments in drug approvals and partnerships [15]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5% last week, closing at 23,916 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 2.3%, ending at 5,216 points[1] - Average daily trading volume dropped by 6.1% to HKD 245.4 billion[1] Sector Performance - Consumer discretionary and information technology sectors declined by 2.9% and 2.3% respectively[1] - Healthcare, materials, and real estate sectors increased by 4.9%, 2.6%, and 1.7% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%[2] - Labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market[2] - Average hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2021[2] Automotive Sector Insights - Li Auto's June delivery volume fell short of expectations, leading to a 7.9% drop in stock price[3] - Xpeng Motors' new SUV received 10,000 orders within 9 minutes, but concerns over pricing led to a 6.8% decline in stock price[3] - NIO's stock price decreased by 6.6% last week, while CATL's H-shares rose by 9.9% due to stable market share[3] Healthcare Sector Developments - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 5.0%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index[4] - AstraZeneca is negotiating a potential USD 15 billion licensing deal for a cancer drug with CanSino Biologics[4] Renewable Energy Sector Trends - Solar energy stocks surged, with Xinyi Solar and GCL-Poly Energy rising by 20.4% to 22.8%[5] - Market sentiment is optimistic due to anticipated supportive policies from the government[5] Water Supply Sector Analysis - China Water Affairs reported a 29.9% decline in net profit for FY25, primarily due to credit losses and decreased connection revenue[6][7] - Water supply sales volume increased by 7.4%, with operational revenue rising by 6.5%[7] Real Estate Market Overview - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 24.7% year-on-year, with a significant drop in first, second, and third-tier cities[11] - Land transaction volume decreased by 55.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate market[14] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for selected state-owned developers in the real estate sector, anticipating policy support[17][18]

Market Overview - On July 3, the Hang Seng Index fell by 151 points or 0.6%, closing at 24,069 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 0.7% to 5,233 points[1] - The total market turnover was over HKD 231.2 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 3.05 billion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect[1] Sector Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector remained strong, while sectors like brokerage, non-ferrous metals, consumer electronics, and new energy vehicles showed positive performance[1] - Notable stock rebounds were observed in companies with operations in Vietnam, such as Shenzhou (2313 HK) and Jingyuan International (2232 HK), with increases ranging from 2.1% to 6.1%[1] Trade Relations - The U.S. announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs, reducing uncertainty in the market[2] - The easing of restrictions on U.S. chip design software exports to China indicates a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, with upcoming negotiations expected to focus on "technology-resource" agreements[2] Industry Dynamics - In the consumer sector, major stocks like Lao Pu Gold (6181 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) saw declines between 1.9% and 4.4%[3] - The healthcare index rose by 2.6% due to supportive measures for innovative drug development, with stocks like Kangfang (9926 HK) surging by 14.3%[3] Water Supply Sector - China Water Affairs (855 HK) reported a 29.9% decline in net profit to HKD 1.07 billion for FY25, primarily due to expected credit losses and a drop in connection and construction revenues[5][6] - Despite the profit decline, water supply sales volume increased by 7.4% to 1.5 billion tons, with operational revenue rising by 6.5% to HKD 3.53 billion[6] Capital Expenditure - The company's capital expenditure decreased by 36.2% to approximately HKD 3.4 billion for FY25, with a projected further reduction of 41.2% to about HKD 2 billion for FY26, supporting a high dividend policy[7] Stock Rating Adjustment - Following a sustained increase in stock prices, the rating for China Water Affairs was adjusted from "Buy" to "Add," with a target price revised down to HKD 6.80, reflecting a 13.0% upside potential[8]

Market Overview - On June 30, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight pullback, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 212 points or 0.9% to close at 24,072 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,302 points. The total market turnover was HKD 242.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 5.22 billion through the Stock Connect [1] - Key blue-chip stocks in sectors such as banking, insurance, and the internet generally retreated, while consumer, telecommunications, and industrial blue-chip stocks rose. Notably, the biopharmaceutical, media entertainment, gold retail, and digital asset sectors performed well [1] Macro Dynamics - In the U.S., May PCE and core PCE rose by 2.3% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively, showing a slight recovery from April. The actual year-on-year growth rate of personal disposable income for U.S. residents fell to 1.7%, while actual year-on-year growth in personal consumption expenditures slowed to 2.2%, the lowest since February of the previous year [2] - In China, new home sales continued to decline year-on-year, with a reported 2.99 million square meters sold in 30 major cities, down 24.7% year-on-year [2] Industry Dynamics - In the consumer sector, the stock price of Lao Pu Gold (6181 HK) rose by 15% after the expiration of a one-year lock-up period, driven by the opening of new stores in Shanghai and Singapore. The current valuation is approximately 40 times the 2025 earnings [3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 0.8%, with the National Healthcare Security Administration recently issuing guidelines for the adjustment of the basic medical insurance directory and innovative drug directory for commercial health insurance [4] - The renewable energy sector saw a general decline in Hong Kong stocks, but the photovoltaic sector performed well, with companies like Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) rising by 4.2% to 7.6% [5] Strategic Outlook - The report from Zhongtai International forecasts a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, driven by a technical bull market and favorable policies. The Hang Seng Index is expected to have a target price adjustment from 23,000 points to 24,500 points by the end of the year, with an anticipated increase in earnings per share of 8.5% and 8.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is likely to attract cross-market capital flows due to a weaker U.S. dollar and valuation opportunities, with a net inflow of HKD 708.1 billion from southbound funds from the beginning of the year to the end of June [8] - The report identifies ten key stocks for the second half of the year, including Tencent (700 HK), SMIC (981 HK), and China Ping An (2318 HK) [10]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 3.2% last week, closing at 24,284 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 4.1%, ending at 5,341 points[1] - Weekly trading volume increased by 20.4% to HKD 248.8 billion[1] Sector Analysis - The materials sector surged 7.7%, benefiting from rising gold and non-ferrous metal stocks[1] - The information technology and financial sectors both rose by 4.3%[1] - The energy and utilities sectors declined by 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively[1] Currency and Liquidity - The Hong Kong dollar hit the weak end of the peg at 7.85, prompting the HKMA to buy HKD 9.42 billion for the first time in 2023[1] - The HKMA injected HKD 129.4 billion into the banking system in May, indicating stable liquidity unless further actions are taken[1] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities fell 11.8% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase of 16.1%[7] - The property inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities rose to 94.5, up from 83.6 year-on-year[9] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities dropped by 31.8% year-on-year[10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI and robotics sectors, as well as semiconductor industries benefiting from policy support[15] - Caution advised due to ongoing financing activities and potential liquidity challenges in the Hong Kong market[1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5% last week, closing at 23,530 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.0% to 5,133 points[1] - Average daily trading volume decreased by 17.6% to HKD 211.2 billion, indicating weakening market sentiment[1] - Despite a net inflow of HKD 16.2 billion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the overall trading activity has not increased since May[1] Sector Performance - The Information Technology Index was the only sector to rise, while Healthcare, Energy, and Materials indices fell by 7.8%, 4.4%, and 3.2% respectively[1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near five-year low, raising concerns about the performance of new A+H IPOs[2] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, reflecting a bias towards anti-inflation measures, which may suppress Hong Kong stock valuations in the short term[2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have historically led to short-term declines in both US and Hong Kong markets, but recovery is often seen within a month[3] Investment Recommendations - The Hang Seng Index is currently in a trading range of 23,000 to 23,500 points, which may provide some support as the market approaches the half-year end and June futures settlement[3] - Investors are advised to consider sectors like AI and robotics that have underperformed in June for potential opportunities[3] Industry Insights - The consumer sector is facing regulatory scrutiny, with stocks like Pop Mart (9992 HK) down 15% from historical highs[4] - The healthcare sector saw a 7.7% decline in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, but a recent government initiative to innovate commercial health insurance may benefit high-priced innovative drugs[4]

Market Overview - On June 19, the Hang Seng Index fell by 473 points or 2.0%, closing at 23,237, marking a new low since June 2[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.4%, closing at 5,088, the lowest since April 30[1] - The total market turnover was over HKD 220.1 billion, indicating that selling pressure was not excessively high[1] - Despite the decline, the Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HKD 1.43 billion[1] Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the June FOMC meeting, emphasizing inflation control as a priority[2] - Economic forecasts indicate concerns over stagflation, with GDP growth predictions lowered and inflation and unemployment rates raised[2] - The divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts has increased, with the number of officials opposing cuts rising from 4 to 7[2] Industry Developments - Black Sesame Technologies (2533 HK) announced plans to acquire an AI chip company, which could enhance its product line for smart vehicles[3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 3.2%, with Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) experiencing a smaller decline due to positive clinical data for its drug candidate[4] Company Highlights - Cao Cao Travel (2643 HK) reported a GTV of RMB 17 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, with a market share of 5.4%[5] - The company aims to expand its fleet to over 34,000 customized vehicles by 2024, with customized vehicles accounting for approximately 25.1% of GTV[5] - Cao Cao's AI-driven system, "Cao Cao Brain," is designed to optimize order matching and reduce idle mileage, contributing to GTV growth[6] Financial Projections - Stone Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) signed a strategic agreement with AstraZeneca, receiving an upfront payment of USD 110 million (approximately RMB 790 million) and potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 1.62 billion[8] - Revenue forecasts for Stone Pharmaceutical for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively, reflecting the anticipated income from the AstraZeneca agreement[9] - The target price for Stone Pharmaceutical has been raised to HKD 8.15, maintaining a "neutral" rating[11]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on June 18, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 270 points or 1.1%, closing at 23,710 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.5%, closing at 5,214 points. The trading volume decreased to 181.9 billion HKD, the lowest since June 2, with a net inflow of 1.24 billion HKD from the Stock Connect [1][2] - The internal quality of the Hong Kong stock market weakened, with many previously strong stocks retreating. Major internet stocks like Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com saw declines ranging from 1.0% to 3.5%. Other sectors such as real estate, automotive, non-bank financials, oil, and telecommunications also experienced pullbacks [1][2] Macroeconomic Dynamics - The U.S. retail sales data for May showed mixed results, indicating a gradual slowdown in consumer spending. Overall retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month but increased by 3.3% year-on-year. The automotive sector was the largest drag, reflecting a decline in demand after consumers rushed to purchase vehicles in March to avoid tariffs [3] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales fell by 0.1% month-on-month but grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with e-commerce sales increasing by 8.3% year-on-year. This suggests that U.S. consumers are shifting from panic buying to a more cautious spending approach [3] Industry Dynamics - In the consumer sector, reports indicated that several regions are pausing or adjusting national subsidies for "trade-in" programs. The regulatory authorities announced a plan to allocate 300 billion RMB in special long-term bonds to support the trade-in program, with 162 billion RMB already distributed to local governments [4] - The automotive industry saw mixed performance, with companies like BYD and Geely declining by 1.1%, while others like Leap Motor and Xpeng saw increases of 0.9% to 1%. Li Auto and NIO experienced declines of 2% to 4% [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on Cao Cao Mobility (2643 HK) highlights its position as a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, operating in 136 cities with a total GTV of 17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [6][7] - The company has developed a decision-making system powered by AI, which efficiently matches orders and optimizes operations, leading to a reduction in reliance on driver subsidies. The percentage of adjusted driver income and subsidies to total service revenue is expected to decrease from 84.2% in 2022 to 79.0% in 2024 [7] - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) indicates a strategic partnership with AstraZeneca to utilize its AI-driven drug discovery platform, with an initial payment of 110 million USD (approximately 790 million RMB) and potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.62 billion USD [9][10] - The target price for CSPC has been raised to 8.15 HKD, reflecting an upward revision in profit forecasts, with a focus on the progress of the EGFR ADC project [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Subscribe" rating to the company with a score of 70 out of 100 [4][14]. Core Insights - The overall transportation market in China is expected to grow from CNY 6.9 trillion in 2022 to CNY 8.0 trillion in 2024, with a further increase to CNY 10.6 trillion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 5.4% [3][7]. - The company operates in 136 cities with a total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of CNY 170 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.8% and a market share of 5.4% [6][8]. - The company has reduced its reliance on driver subsidies, with the adjusted percentage of driver income and subsidies in total ride service revenue decreasing from 84.2% in 2022 to 79.0% in 2024 [6][9]. Company Overview - The company is a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, offering two main service lines: Huixuan and Special Car services, utilizing customized vehicles [6][8]. - In 2024, the company's total revenue is projected to reach CNY 146.6 billion, a 37.4% increase year-on-year, with customized vehicle GTV growing by 73.1% to CNY 42.5 billion [8][9]. - The company has a fleet of over 34,000 customized vehicles in 31 cities, with customized vehicle orders accounting for approximately 25.1% of total GTV [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 8.1% in 2024, recovering from a gross loss margin of 4.4% in 2022, primarily due to optimized vehicle total cost of ownership (TCO) strategies [9]. - The net loss for 2024 is projected at CNY 12.5 billion, with the net loss margin significantly narrowing from 25.8% in 2022 to 8.5% [9]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be CNY 2.4 billion, an increase of approximately CNY 1 billion compared to 2023 [9]. Valuation Level - The company's IPO price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4 times for 2024, which is comparable to its peers in the ride-hailing sector [10]. - The report suggests that the company's valuation is reasonable given its large market capitalization and leading industry position [10]. Market Environment - The investment atmosphere in the Hong Kong stock market has improved significantly, with a 27.6% first-day drop rate for new IPOs and an average first-day increase of 11.7% [13]. - The company has secured subscriptions from six cornerstone investors, including major firms, amounting to approximately HKD 950 million, representing about 51.3% of the total share issuance [14].

Market Overview - On June 17, the Hang Seng Index fell by 81 points or 0.3%, closing at 23,980 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.2% to 5,291 points[1] - Market turnover dropped to over HKD 202.1 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 6.3 billion through the Stock Connect[1] - Investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum and the June FOMC meeting, leading to a rotation among sectors[1] Sector Performance - Consumer electronics, engineering machinery, semiconductors, and gaming stocks outperformed the market, with gaming stocks benefiting from Macau's visa policy changes[1] - Several previously high-performing biotech stocks saw declines of 5.0% or more, indicating a weakening internal market quality[1] - Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK) announced a premium issuance of convertible bonds, raising HKD 8.8 billion, resulting in a 7.3% drop in its stock price, the largest decline among blue chips[1] Real Estate Insights - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 1.74 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, an improvement from the previous week's 18.1% drop[4] - First-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed increased transaction volumes, with Beijing up 2.5% and Shanghai up 10.1% year-on-year[5] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 34.0% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in real estate activity[7] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index dropped by 4.0%, seen as a normal pullback after five weeks of gains[2] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is considering adjustments to the commercial health insurance drug list, which may alleviate high treatment costs[2] Company-Specific Developments - Zibuyu Group (2420.HK) is projected to achieve a net profit CAGR of 12.3% from 2024 to 2027, with revenue expected to reach RMB 39.6 billion in 2025[13] - The company plans to diversify sales channels, with 98% of sales currently through Amazon, and aims to establish independent websites to reduce reliance on single platforms[14]