Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks rebounded for two consecutive weeks, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.3% to close at 19,865 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.6%, closing at 4,464 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.7% to 7,136 points[2] - The average daily trading volume in the market slightly decreased by 1.4% to over HKD 135.2 billion[1] Economic Indicators - China's November CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4%, marking a five-month low[5] - The PPI decline narrowed to 2.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[6] - In the U.S., November non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, exceeding expectations of 220,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%[8] Policy Expectations - Anticipation of significant fiscal stimulus and potential interest rate cuts from the upcoming December meetings is driving market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's officials have indicated a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, with an 83% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December[9] Investment Recommendations - Sectors such as consumer internet, insurance, home appliances, and biotechnology are expected to show better resilience in the short term due to policy expectations[1] - Long-term investment opportunities are seen in new infrastructure and high-end manufacturing sectors, which are aligned with government fiscal policies[1] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index has retreated to around 106.2, while the offshore RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.25 and 7.30[35] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped to approximately 4.19%, indicating a potential for bond market adjustments[1] Risk Factors - The report highlights risks including complex international situations, potential underperformance of policy effects, and escalating geopolitical tensions[36]

Market Overview - On December 4, the Hang Seng Index experienced a slight decline of 4 points, closing at 19,742 points, with a trading range of only 208 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.3%, closing at 4,404 points, with total market turnover at approximately HKD 131.1 billion[1] - Net outflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 10.36 billion, indicating a shift towards high-dividend stocks in the market[1] Sector Performance - Energy and telecommunications sectors were the focus, with CNOOC (883 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), and Sinopec (386 HK) rising between 2.1% and 3.2%[1] - The automotive sector saw significant growth, with SUTENG (2498 HK) reporting a 91.5% year-on-year revenue increase, leading to an 11.9% stock price rise in one day[3] - The healthcare sector's Hang Seng Medical Care Index fell by 0.9%, despite no negative news in the pharmaceutical industry[4] Policy and Economic Outlook - Short-term support for the Hong Kong market is expected due to strong policy expectations, although U.S.-China trade tensions may increase risk premiums for Chinese assets[2] - The U.S. job market shows signs of stability, with job openings rising to 7.744 million in October, up from 7.372 million in September, indicating a positive employment trend[2] Healthcare Sector Insights - The National Healthcare Security Administration's new policy supports innovative drugs, with 90 out of 91 newly included drugs being launched within the last five years[7] - The success rate for innovative drugs in the recent negotiation round was 90%, compared to an overall success rate of 76%[7] Risks and Recommendations - Potential risks include unexpected price reductions from healthcare negotiations and slower-than-expected new drug development[10] - Continued recommendations for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (1177 HK) due to expected strong performance in 2024[9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 87 points or 0.4% to close at 19,663 points on November 19, marking a slight rebound for the second consecutive day[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.2%, closing at 4,395 points, while market turnover dropped to approximately HKD 121.9 billion, the lowest since November 4[1] - The volatility index for the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.1%, reaching a one-month low, indicating reduced market activity[1] Sector Performance - The materials sector led gains with a 4.0% increase, driven by significant rises in companies like Ganfeng Lithium (up 11.7% to 13.3%) and China Gold[1] - Brokerage stocks benefited from high A-share financing balances, with China Merchants Securities rising by 6.3%[1] - Consumer sectors, including automotive and appliances, also saw positive performance, although Xiaomi's stock fell by 1.7% after earnings, while Trip.com rose by 5.8%[1] Macroeconomic Indicators - China's fiscal revenue in October reached CNY 2.19 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with tax revenue growth turning positive for the first time this year at 1.8%[2] - Non-tax revenue surged by 39.6% year-on-year, totaling CNY 285.5 billion, indicating strong growth in this area[2] - Government expenditure in October accelerated to CNY 1.97 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.4%, supported by infrastructure spending[2] Investment Outlook - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find technical support around the 19,500-point level, with future performance dependent on the sustainability of economic recovery momentum[8] - The report suggests that while the market faces short-term pressures, there is potential for recovery driven by infrastructure investment and consumer policies expected from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference[8]

策略周报| 2024 年 10 月 15 日 香港股市 | 2024 年 10 月 7 日 - 2024 年 10 月 13 日 港股进入震荡区间，波段操作为上 每周策略建议 港股：港股快速拉升的赚效行情暂时完结，恒指在高见 23,200 点时已估值偏高，大 成交下跌的出现也预示港股进入震荡区间。当前恒指的超买状态大幅缓和，估值也 回到略有承接力的水平，沽空比率跌至低位，流动性较为充足，叠加财政政策发力 预期，均有望支撑股市热度。恒指波幅指数接近 40 点的极高水平，策略上宜低买 高沽捕捉波段，板块分化或愈加明显，Alpha 将超越 Beta，有盈利支撑及估值合理 的股份会率先跑出。我们偏好 1) 盈利增长持续改善，股东回报提升的头部互联网； 2) 受益资本市场回暖的内险；3)捕捉业绩稳健的消费板块龙头弹性，家电、餐饮、 博彩、文旅；4) 受惠四季度中央财政发力的工程机械及电气设备；5) 能源、电讯、 公用事业及部分必选消费等高息股攻守兼备。 美股：美股在交易软着陆，三大指数再创新高，市场升势全面。9 月新增非农超预 期、ISM 服务业 PMI 向好，GDPNOW 模型预计三季度 GDP 录得 3.2%环比折 ...

Market Performance - On October 14, the Hang Seng Index experienced a high-low fluctuation of 655 points, closing down 159 points or 0.8% at 21,092 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.4%, closing at 4,668 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.0%[1] - Market turnover decreased to HKD 277.1 billion, the lowest since October 4, indicating a potential downward trend in trading volume[1] Economic Indicators - In September, new RMB loans decreased by CNY 720 billion year-on-year, with both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents declining for eight consecutive months[1] - The M1 money supply fell by 7.4% year-on-year, marking a record low, indicating insufficient cash flow in the economy[1] - September's export figures showed a 2.4% year-on-year increase, the lowest growth rate since May, falling short of the expected 6%[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 2.18 million square meters, down 12.0% year-on-year, but up 139.2% month-on-month[2] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for the top ten cities was 94.7, higher than last year's 72.7 but lower than the previous week's 111.3[2] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 22.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing zero transactions[4] Investment Strategy - The Hang Seng Index's PE ratio has recovered to a seven-year average, with a potential target range of 23,500 to 25,000 points by year-end[5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, including consumer goods, technology, and non-bank financials[6] - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating the economy are expected to improve market sentiment and potentially lead to a recovery in the real estate sector[5]

2024 年 8 月 19 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 随着日元套息交易平仓带来的流动性冲击完结，以及美国经济衰退的忧虑消退后，海外股市逐渐修复 8 月以来的下跌，港 股也在海外股市回稳及绩优权重股的带动下连续两周上升，并开始摆脱 17,000-17,200 点窄幅整理区域。恒生指数上周全 周上升 2.3%，收报 17,430 点。恒生科指全周上升 0.7%，收报 3,459 点。大市日均成交减少至 790 多亿港元，港股通全周 净流入 165.8 亿港元，继续带来增量资金。8 月以来公布的一系列中国经济数据显示经济下行压力较大，制造业 PMI 连续 三个月收缩，社零、固投及工业生产增速放缓，房地产销售低迷，居民及企业缺乏信贷需求。内部有效需求不足造成核 心 CPI 维持低位。不过，港股的估值处于低位给予一定的下行保护，恒生指数的风险溢价高于滚动两年平均一个标准偏 差，恒生科指预测 PE 处于历史低位，AH 溢价指数也处于三年来 87.0%分位数的位置。另一方面，下半年中央财政加力， 专项债加快发行，3,000 亿元消费品以旧换新及设备更新等政策有助于助力下半年经济增长。美国通胀及就业正在温和放 缓，为 9 ...

361 度（1361 HK） | 2024 年 8 月 14 日 香港股市 | 消费 | 体育服饰 361 度(1361 HK) 收入 / 利润逆市双位数增长 受益于高性价比策略，收入同比增长 19.2% 361 度 1H24 整体收入 51.4 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长 19.2%，其中主品牌实现收 入 39.4 亿，同比增长 18.1%，儿童品牌收入 11.3 亿，同比增长 24.2%。上半年公司产品 均价维持稳定，收入上升由销量带动，证明公司专注高性价比产品的策略在近期消费表 现疲弱的环境中行之有效。上半年销售更多高性价比的产品，导致鞋类产品的毛利率略 微下降至 42.8%，但在其他品类毛利率坚挺作用下，公司整体毛利率 41.5%，同比跌 0.2 百分点。期内公司实现净利润 7.9 亿，同比提升 12.2%，净利润率 15.4%。公司宣布派发 中期股息每股 0.165 港元，同比增长 154%，派息率为 40.3%，高于市场预期。 广告投入加大；门店拓展保持零售增长 按运动分类，跑步产品占收入 52%，期内录得同比 40%以上增长；篮球产品占收入 8%， 增长率约 20%；女性健身产品虽然只占收入 ...

策略周报| 2024 年 8 月 12 日 香港股市 | 2024 年 8 月 5 日 - 2024 年 8 月 11 日 全球避险情绪有所降温，港股低估值易企稳 每周策略建议 港股：日本央行"偏鸽"发言维稳日元，日元有所回弱，利好全球风险资产反弹。 美国服务业尚稳，最新初领失业金人数下降，缓解经济衰退的忧虑。资金避险情绪 有所减退，港股在当前较低估值水平也容易企稳。港股恒生指数的风险溢价已处于 七年来 86.7%分位数的位置，高于滚动两年平均两个标准偏差，估值水平在历史低 位。7 月中国物价、进出口数据表现参差，基本面温和修复底色不改。二季度央行 货币政策报告强调加强逆周期调节，国内宽货币政策空间有望进一步打开。近周恒 生指数的盈利预测有轻微上修，主要由科技及工业板块贡献。全球避险情绪进一步 降温，高 BETA 且盈利能力持续提升的互联网相关或恒生科技指数有望率先反弹。 美股：美国 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 重回扩张区间，有助纾缓衰退忧虑。美股企业盈利 有小幅下调，但与过去 10 年的平均趋势差不多。等权标普及等权纳指的调整幅度 少于市值加权，反映美股下跌主要由今年以来过分挤拥的仓位平仓所致。等权纳指 ...

2024 年 8 月 12 日 星期一 每日大市点评 日本央行放"鸽"维稳日元和股市，日元重新回跌，全球风险资产的抛售压力抒缓。美国服务业尚稳，初领失业金人数 超预期回落，缓解市场对经济衰退的忧虑。上周周中之后资金避险情绪逐步有所减退，港股在当前较低估值水平也容易 企稳。恒指上周收报 17,090，全周上升 0.9%，重回万七关口；恒生科技指数收报 3,436，全周上升 1.5%。上周大市日均 成交额增长6.2%至1,036亿港元，港股通净流入152亿港元。受惠美联储降息预期升温和资金避险情绪缓和，上周高beta 的医疗保健、地产、科技板块涨幅领先，前一周涨幅较多的电讯回调明显，工业、原材料和能源跌幅靠前。 基本面温和修复的背景下，当前恒生指数的盈利预测上修动能较为反复，港股业绩期以来多数消费股业绩低迷。不过， 当前港股的估值再度跌至较低水平或有助企稳，恒生指数的风险溢价升至滚动两年两个标准偏差附近。资金避险情绪趋 于缓和，港股有望实现估值修复。我们预计 8 月恒生指数合理高低波幅在 16,100 点至 17,800 点左右，策略上可关注： 1）盈利持续上修且估值具性价比的互联网及游戏；2）海外经济支持出口制 ...

2024 年 8 月 8 日 星期四 每日晨讯 > 每日大市点评 8 月 7 日，港股跟随海外股市回稳，恒生指数上升 230 点或 1.4%,收报 16,877 点。恒生科指上升 1.2%,收报 3,382 点。 大市成交金额有 957 多亿港元,港股通净流入 116.73 亿港元,主要流入盈富基金及恒生中国企业两只指数 ETF。恒指波 幅指数下跌 6.6%至 22.1 点,回到较低水平,预示恒生指数的波动性有所下降。近期股市及外汇市场波动引起多国政府的 重视,其中日本央行副行长内田真一在周三指出由于国内外金融和资本市场的发展非常不稳定,日本央行目前需要维持 宽松的货币政策利率,目元在亚洲时段一度下跌 2.4%至 147.9。近期全球风险资产震荡源头--- 日元止升回跌，波动率下 降刺激亚太区股市反弹。昨日港股 12 大恒生综合行业分类指数亦全线上升,其中公用事业及能源涨幅居前。恒指权重股 如腾讯〈700 HK)、阿里(9988 HK)、中移动(941 HK)、友邦(1299 HK)、建农工中四大内银都上升,而文旅、消费电子、食 品、制造业相关股份均有较大升幅，如百胜中国(9987 HK)在业绩后股价两天累升 ...