房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 4 月 29 日 强大于市 房地产行业第 17 周周报（2025 年 4 月 19 日-2025 年 4 月 25 日） 成交同比降幅扩大；政治局会议强调推进"城市更新"； 厦门房票使用范围扩大至二手房 新房成交面积环比涨幅收窄，同比降幅扩大。二手房成交面积环比由正转负，同比降幅扩大。 新房库存面积同环比均下降，去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 政策 投资建议： 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止跌》 （2024/12/17） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线 》（2024/12/14） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政策； 看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"， 地产拐点已 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 29 日 策略周报 AI 产业链有望重回主线 政治局会议延续基调，地产、消费政策进一步发力或仍需等待二季度经济数 据验证， "人工智能+"表述有所强化有机会重回主线。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 政策预期阶段性落地，短期震荡不改中期向好，科技产业具备长期趋 势。周五政治局会议召开，市场政策预期阶段性落地。总体来看，本次 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has emphasized the importance of developing artificial intelligence (AI), indicating strong national support for the sector [3][6]. - The report highlights that domestic operators, particularly the three major telecom companies (China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom), are expected to benefit significantly from the growth and value reassessment brought by intelligent computing business [3]. - The report suggests focusing on domestic optical chip supply chains, Huawei's Ascend industry chain, and edge AI industry chain companies, including Yuanjie Technology, Shengke Communication-U, Huagong Technology, Shijia Photon, Juguang Technology, Weijie Chuangxin, and Zhongshi Technology [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," with expectations of better performance compared to the benchmark index in the coming months [11]. Key Points Supporting the Rating - The emphasis on AI development by the Central Political Bureau reflects a significant national strategy to enhance core technologies and promote the "AI+" initiative [3][6]. - The report notes the importance of self-sufficiency in AI technology, particularly in the context of U.S. chip export controls, which has led to advancements in domestic AI capabilities [3]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of AI will drive economic growth and job creation, with B-end projects being the primary means of monetizing large model capabilities [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the three major telecom operators and domestic supply chains related to AI and optical chips, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [3].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced slight gains with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% and the CSI 300 up 0.4% for the week[2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.7%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.7%[2] - The average daily trading volume for A-shares was 1.15 trillion CNY, up 3.4% from the previous week[2] Sector Performance - Among 31 industry indices, 24 sectors rose, led by automotive, beauty, and basic chemicals, while food and beverage and real estate sectors lagged[2] - The automotive sector's turnover rate ZScore increased, indicating stronger trading activity[2] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 12.3, with a ZScore of -0.4, indicating it is below the historical average[2] - The ChiNext's P/E ratio was significantly higher at 37.2, also with a ZScore of -0.4[2] Bond Market Insights - The yield on 1-year government bonds rose by 2.0 basis points to 1.45%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.2 basis points to 1.66%[3] - The market sentiment for bonds fluctuated, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, which fell to approximately 4.29%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.4% to 99.58, while the offshore RMB exchange rate fell by 0.2% to 7.29[3] - Gold prices decreased by 0.2% to 3319 USD/ounce, reflecting market adjustments following geopolitical concerns[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in liquidity and economic fundamentals, which could impact market stability[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving a year-on-year increase in net profit despite a slight decline in revenue. The revenue for 2024 was RMB 69.15 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, while the net profit was RMB 2.55 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year [5][9] - The company aims for a sales target of over RMB 100 billion in 2025, maintaining a strong market position, particularly in Hangzhou, where it has consistently ranked first in sales for seven consecutive years [6][9] - The company has a robust financial position with a healthy cash flow and a significant amount of pre-sales, ensuring future revenue stability [9][27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 69.15 billion, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous year, while the net profit was RMB 2.55 billion, reflecting a growth of 0.7% [5][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.82 per 10 shares, representing 10% of the net profit, with a dividend yield of 0.8% [5] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales amount of RMB 111.6 billion in 2024, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, but it ranked 9th in the industry, marking its entry into the top ten for the first time [9][29] - In Hangzhou, the company achieved sales of RMB 89.9 billion, significantly outperforming its nearest competitor [9] Land Acquisition and Development - The company has maintained a high land acquisition intensity, securing 23 new land projects in 2024, primarily in Hangzhou, with a total land acquisition amount of RMB 44.9 billion [9][31] - The average floor price for land acquired was RMB 24,000 per square meter, an increase of 38.5% year-on-year [9][37] Financial Health and Cash Flow - The company reported a cash balance of RMB 37.14 billion at the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [27][28] - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 7.67 billion, although it decreased by 76.5% year-on-year due to lower sales [9][24] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain a sales target of around RMB 100 billion in 2025, with a focus on increasing its market share in key regions [9][31] - The company plans to control its investment amount to around 50% of its sales revenue, indicating a strategic approach to capital allocation [9][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.417 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.049 billion, marking a turnaround from a loss [3][8] - The growth in 2024 was primarily due to a low base from the previous year, with existing projects under pressure, necessitating ongoing attention to optimization [3][8] - New projects are ramping up quickly and showing excellent performance, with stable progress in light-asset contracts, indicating promising growth potential [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.417 billion, up 25.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.049 billion, recovering from a loss [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 525 million, with a payout ratio of 50% [8] Project Performance - Existing projects showed mixed results, with most under pressure; however, new projects are performing well, such as the Guangdong Foshan project, which became profitable in its first year [8] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement for the "Silk Road Eternal Love" project, with expected service fees of RMB 50 million, set to open in July 2026 [8] Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS of RMB 0.45, 0.50, and 0.55 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.3, 19.3, and 17.5 [5][7] - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 2.686 billion, with a growth rate of 11.1% [7]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 28 日 | 4 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 600428.SH | 中远海特 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 603081.SH | 大丰实业 | | 002916.SZ | 深南电路 | | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3295.06 | (0.07) | | 深证成指 | 9917.06 | 0.39 | | 沪深 300 | 3786.99 | 0.07 | | 中小 100 | 6232.97 | 0.47 | | 创业板指 | 1947.19 | 0.59 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 公用事业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with a significant increase in Q1 2025. The upgraded "3+N+3" business strategy and the "China + VMI" global capacity layout are expected to drive future growth [3][8] - The company is positioned well in the consumer electronics sector, with a strong competitive edge in multiple product categories, including smartphones, personal computers, and data centers [8] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 139.19 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.7% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 3.61 billion, with a growth rate of 23.5% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 3.56, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.7 times [5][7] - The EBITDA for 2025 is expected to reach RMB 4.78 billion, indicating a significant increase from previous years [7] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully upgraded its "3+N+3" strategy, establishing a comprehensive product platform that includes smart devices and emerging fields such as automotive electronics and robotics [8] - The global supply chain system, characterized by a "1+5+5" structure, supports the company's operational efficiency and future growth [8]

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [2][5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 15.88 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.79%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.03 billion, up 32.36% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of RMB 5.27 billion, reflecting a 17.90% increase year-on-year and a 44.29% increase quarter-on-quarter [5][10][11]. - The dye industry is expected to recover, and the company is anticipated to benefit from increased sales of various chemical products and ongoing real estate projects, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][7][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 was RMB 15,883.86 million, with a growth rate of 3.79% compared to 2023. The EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 2,900 million, and the net profit was RMB 2,354.86 million, marking a 35.88% increase year-on-year [11][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.62, with a slight adjustment in forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting EPS of RMB 0.63 and RMB 0.71 respectively [7][15]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 27.87%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in the dye market [10][11]. Business Segments - The dye and intermediate business showed resilience, with revenue from the dye segment reaching RMB 75.91 billion in 2024, a 0.94% increase year-on-year, despite a 5.81% decline in average price per ton [10][11]. - The real estate segment saw significant growth, with revenue of RMB 24.82 billion, up 87.26% year-on-year, driven by project deliveries [10][11]. - The company has a strong market position in the dye industry, with a production capacity of 300,000 tons per year, and is expanding its intermediate product offerings to enhance its competitive edge [10][11].