策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 7 月 15 日 市场点评报告 科创板再添 " 前置工具 " ，助力 IPO 生态优化 上交所试点"预先审阅"机制，强化科创板对硬科技企业支持。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》20250618 《5 月经济数据点评》20250616 《市场点评报告》20250616 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 披露声明 本报告准确表述了证券分析师的个人观点。该证券分析师声明，本人未在公司内、外部机构兼任有损本人独立性与客观 性的其他职务，没有担任本报告评论的上市公司的董事、监事或高级管理人员；也不拥有与该上市公司有关的任何财务 权益；本报告评论的上市公司或其它第三方都没有或没有承诺向本人提供与本报告有关的任何补偿或其它利益。 中银国际证券股 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 15 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 28 周周报（2025 年 7 月 5 日-2025 年 7 月 11 日） 投资建议： 本周新房二手房成交同比均走弱；北京支持公积金付首付并 研究 " 带押过户 " 新房成交面积环比降幅扩大，同比由正转负。二手房成交面积环比降幅收窄，同比降幅扩大。新 房库存面积环比上升，同比下降。去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 政策 风险提示： ◼ 地方层面，本周《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》发布。其中，在优化住房消费新 供给方面提出，支持缴存人在提取公积金支付购房首付款的同时申请住房公积金个人住房 贷款。研究制定住房公积金个人住房贷款"带押过户"政策，并开展相关业务。海南省住房公 积金管理局将推出个人住房商业贷款转住房公积金贷款新政，包含"带押直转"和"自筹结清" 两种方式，旨在帮助居民降低房贷成本。 ◼ 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止 跌》（2024/12/17） (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.c ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.00% this week, following a previous increase of 3.77% [1][13] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 16.59%, ranking second among all industries, with a focus on the investment value of bank stocks [1] - Key banks to watch include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index fell this week, with 17 out of 42 banks seeing an increase in stock prices [2][12] - State-owned banks had an average increase of 1.08%, while joint-stock banks saw a slight decline of 0.08% [2][15] - Over the past month, state-owned banks increased by 8.98%, while joint-stock banks rose by 9.80% [2][15] Funding Price Situation - The central bank's reverse repo operations decreased, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan this week [3][28] - The overnight SHIBOR rate rose to 1.33%, and the 7-day SHIBOR rate increased to 1.48% [3][31] - The average overnight repo rate for deposit institutions was 1.34%, reflecting a rise of 3 basis points [3][31] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 17,057.9 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 2,087.7 billion yuan compared to last week [4][41] - Financial bonds issuance was 4,071.5 billion yuan, up by 2,030.5 billion yuan from the previous week [4][41] - Government bonds saw a rise in yields, with the 1-year yield at 1.37% and the 10-year yield at 1.67% [5][43] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market Review - The issuance of interbank certificates totaled 4,259 billion yuan, an increase of 1,833 billion yuan from last week [54] - The weighted average issuance rate was 1.61%, down by 1 basis point [54]

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《美联储能否实现"软着陆"?》20240602 《美国经济看点：AI 浪潮与家庭债务》20241103 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《AI、黄金与美债》20250302 《"以股看债"或成重要思路》20250309 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《欧债对美债的替代性》20250420 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《为外部经济降温做好准备——央行 5 月宣布 降准降息点评》20250507 《通胀预期对美联储更重要——美联储 5 月议 息会议点评》20250511 《美国 4 月零售、通胀数据平 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulation policies, supply-side changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush" in the first half of the year, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, and stable dividend policies in energy enterprises [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 22 saw price increases, 47 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. 39% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 55% saw a decrease, and 6% remained unchanged. The top gainers included DMF, potassium chloride, and acetone, while hydrochloric acid and aniline were among the largest decliners [9][33] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude futures closing at $68.45 per barrel (up 2.93%) and Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel (up 3.02%). The U.S. average daily crude oil production was reported at 13.385 million barrels, a decrease of 48,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 850,000 barrels year-on-year [9][10] Product Price Changes - The average price of polysilicon increased to 31,200 CNY/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week, while glyphosate prices rose to 25,501 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.79% increase. The gross profit margin for glyphosate was reported at 10.85%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 129.88% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several investment themes: the sustained high prices of crude oil, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy measures. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and various technology firms in the electronic materials sector [10][11] Key Stocks for July - The report highlights "Satellite Chemical" and "Anji Technology" as key stocks for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in their recent financial reports [11][17]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 14 日 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250714 | | --- | ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评*王君 高天然。国产算力产业链"产业突破-业绩验证- 需求验证"逻辑链条已逐步打通，产业链行情正在迎来催化。 【交通运输】极兔速递-W*王靖添 刘国强。公司披露 2025 年二季度经营情 况，今年二季度，公司全球包裹总量达 73.9 亿件，同比增长 23.5%。分区域 看，东南亚市场表现强劲，包裹量同比增长 65.9%至 16.9 亿件，中国市场保 持平稳增长，包裹量达 56.1 亿件，同比增长 14.7%，新市场包裹量同比提升 23.7%至 8940 万件，我们继续看好东南亚电商红利助力公司业务量持续增 长，中国区域效率优化和政策"反内卷"下盈利空间有望释放。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3510.18 | 0.01 | | 深证成指 | 10696.10 | 0.61 | | 沪深 300 | 4014.81 | 0.12 | | 中小 100 | 6638.43 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 关注 7 月政治局会议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 | - | "股债跷跷板"或将短期影响债市 | 低配 | | 货币 | - | 收益率将在 2%上下波动 | 低配 | | 大宗商品 | = | 关注财政增量政策落实进度 | 标配 | | 外汇 | = | 中国经济基本面优势支撑汇率宽幅波动 | 标配 | 资料来源：中银证券 相关研究报告 《中银量化多策略行业轮动周报 – 20250710》 20250711 《策略点评报告》20250710 《策略点 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 7月 第 2 周周报 新能源汽车方面，根据中汽协数据，6 月新能源汽车产销分别完成 126.8 万 辆和 132.9 万辆，同比分别增长 26.4%和 26.7%，渗透率达到 45.8%；根据 中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，6 月我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh， 环比增长 1.9%，同比增长 35.9%；下半年随着新能源新车型不断推出，新 能源汽车产品力不断增强，2025 年国内新能源汽车销量有望保持高增，带动 电池和材料需求增长。新技术方面，固态电池产业化趋势明确，后续关注固 态电池相关材料和设备企业验证进展。光伏方面，中央经济工作会议明确提 出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，中央财经委员会明确将依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，在顶层指引之下 国家市场监管总局、工信部联合印发《计量支撑产业新质生产力发展行动方 案（2025—2030 年）》，或通过提升先进制造标准推动产能升级迭代，光伏供 给侧提质、增效主线明确。在"反内卷"大趋势下，硅业分会等第三方机构表 示 ...

紧抓"政策预期+产业景气"双重确定性，利用波动优化持仓结构，迎接三季度 业绩与政策共振行情。 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略周报 震荡中孕育突破动能 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 ◼ 震荡中孕育突破动能。本周市 ...

Core Insights - The domestic computing power industry chain has achieved a breakthrough in the logic chain of "industrial breakthrough - performance verification - demand verification," indicating that the industry is entering a catalytic phase [2][4] - Key domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Muxi Integration and Moer Thread, have had their IPO applications accepted, filling the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [5][6] - Huawei's computing power cluster performance is now comparable to NVIDIA, with significant advancements in AI model capabilities and infrastructure [6][9] Industry Overview - The performance of key companies in the industry chain, such as Industrial Fulian, has shown remarkable growth, with a forecasted net profit of 6.727 to 6.927 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [7] - The demand side is witnessing rapid growth in the consumption of tokens by domestic large models, indicating a significant increase in computing power demand [8] - The acceleration of the domestic GPU listing wave, combined with the performance of hardware manufacturers and the growing demand for AI large models, suggests that the domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle [4][8] Key Company Developments - Muxi Integration has sold over 25,000 GPU products and has achieved large-scale applications in various AI public computing platforms [5] - Moer Thread has successfully developed and mass-produced four generations of high-performance GPU architectures, launching multiple high-performance GPU accelerator cards and integrated solutions [5] - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 AI cloud service has achieved a significant performance leap, surpassing NVIDIA's flagship products in several key metrics, indicating a milestone breakthrough in China's AI infrastructure [6][9] Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in token consumption for domestic large models, with daily usage reaching 16.4 trillion tokens, reflects a strong upward trend in computing power demand [8] - The performance of Industrial Fulian's AI-related business has seen over 60% revenue growth in AI servers, indicating a sustained positive outlook for the computing power industry chain [7] - The overall trend suggests that the domestic computing power market is likely to experience further catalysis, with recommendations to focus on domestic computing power chips, servers, PCB, and optical communication manufacturers [2][4][8]