Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of interest rates oscillating within a balanced range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in monetary policy in 2026. The central bank is likely to use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading to maintain interest rates within the 1.6 - 1.9% range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield. Although the Q4 monetary policy meeting did not explicitly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", it did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in Q1, especially if there is strong upward pressure on interest rates during market operation [2]. - The Q3 GDP data of the United States provided little incremental information, and the recovery of industrial production was limited. The Q3 GDP showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate increased only slightly. The US economy continued to be uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates [2]. - The decline in upstream price indicators continued to narrow. In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. Various industrial product prices and indicators also showed different trends [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to Understand "Financing Costs Operating at a Low Level" - The central bank's recent meetings mentioned "promoting the low - level operation of the overall social financing cost", indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate fluctuation range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield valuation in the 1.6 - 1.9% range may be the central bank's perceived balanced state, and the central bank may use various tools to maintain this range. The reduction of the "prevention of fund idling" statement in the Q4 monetary policy meeting also implies that the current interest rate trend is not likely to induce fund idling. The relatively low credit spread of primary - market credit bond issuance rates compared to treasury bond yields suggests that a further increase in treasury bond yields may affect social financing growth [2]. - Based on the above - mentioned balanced interest rate range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in 2026. Although the Q4 meeting did not clearly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", the concept of "using various tools" is consistent with the "reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts and other monetary policy tools" mentioned in the Central Economic Work Conference, so the possibility of Q1 interest rate cuts is not excluded, especially when there is strong upward pressure on interest rates [2]. US Economic Data Analysis - The Q3 GDP data of the United States showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate of 2.3% increased only slightly. Personal consumption growth and import decline were the main drivers of GDP. The PCE provided limited incremental information on the current inflation situation. The US economy remained uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates. Despite the impact of tariff hikes, the cumulative import volume in the United States from January to September 2025 still increased by more than 7% year - on - year due to pre - stocking. Industrial production recovered to a post - pandemic high but was still below the historical peak [2]. Upstream Price Indicator Analysis - In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 0.05% week - on - week and decreased 22.18% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased 1.93% week - on - week and increased 13.58% year - on - year. In the week of December 19, the edible agricultural product price index increased 0.20% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.81% [2]. - The domestic cement price index decreased 0.17% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased 1.60% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased 0.05% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased 6.02% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased 0.08% week - on - week. In the week of December 19, the production material price index remained flat week - on - week and decreased 1.07% year - on - year [2]. - The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased 3.24% and 3.08% week - on - week respectively. The average spot price of LME copper increased 2.97% week - on - week; the average spot price of aluminum increased 2.12% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio increased 0.19% week - on - week [2]. - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 331,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2].

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% this week, with the asset allocation sequence favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash [1][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize investment and address the "price stagnation" issue, highlighting fixed asset investment as a core solution [3][22] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shanghai 300 stock index futures rose by 2.46%. In contrast, coking coal futures fell by 0.72% and iron ore contracts decreased by 0.06% [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.04%, and the ten-year government bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.84% [2][46] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, with a focus on the implementation of incremental policies [3][4] - The report suggests that the demand for fixed investment remains crucial in addressing the issue of "price stagnation," with real estate investment continuing to drag down fixed asset investment performance [3][24] Sector Insights - The report highlights that the industrial product prices are influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices and domestic investment shortfalls, particularly in the coal mining and washing industry [3][28] - The automotive sector is noted for a decline in wholesale and retail sales, with a year-on-year drop of 9% and 11% respectively, indicating a potential for recovery driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [38][44] Key Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the GDP for 2024 was finalized at 13,480.66 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [6][26] - The report also tracks high-frequency data, indicating a decrease in the operating rates of major steel mills and a decline in social inventory of construction materials [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the duty-free industry, highlighting the increasing importance of domestic demand and supportive policies from the government [1]. Core Insights - The duty-free industry is entering a new era characterized by improved external conditions, enhanced policies, and rising industry sentiment, suggesting significant investment opportunities [1]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales due to the launch of new policies, the peak tourist season, and a low base effect, with sales growth projected to continue [3]. - The recovery of international passenger flow and the expansion of the免税店 (duty-free store) market are anticipated to further boost sales in both port and city channels [3][39]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Market Overview - The duty-free market is experiencing a recovery, with sales in Hainan showing a positive year-on-year growth of 27% in November, driven by new policies and an increase in tourist numbers [3][22]. - The report notes that the sales of high-value items like digital products and gold jewelry are contributing significantly to this growth [22]. Offshore Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales have seen a turnaround, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in September, marking the first positive growth since March [22]. - The report indicates that the new policies implemented in October are expected to further enhance the shopping experience and increase the variety of products available [26]. Port and City Duty-Free Sales - The international passenger flow is gradually returning, with the number of inbound foreign tourists increasing significantly, which is expected to drive sales in port and city duty-free stores [39]. - The report highlights that the recent policy changes have expanded the range of products available in city duty-free stores, aiming to stimulate consumer demand [40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the duty-free sector, specifically China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Zhuhai Duty Free Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the policy changes and market recovery [3].

Overview - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting that the demand for offshore wind power in China and Europe is increasing, leading to a rise in foundation demand and profit recovery for wind turbines. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue driving the photovoltaic sector, particularly with the expansion of perovskite technology. Overall, while short-term installation demand for renewable energy globally may be weak, there are structural opportunities in the market [1]. Key Points Supporting the Rating - The "anti-involution" trend is stabilizing wind turbine prices, enhancing profitability for manufacturers. China's offshore wind projects are becoming economically viable, contributing significantly to installed capacity. The demand for offshore wind in Europe and emerging markets is also on the rise [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "anti-involution" policy remains the main theme, with a focus on the potential for capacity exits in battery and module production, as well as the industrialization potential of perovskite technology. Investment should prioritize growth-oriented new technology directions and the main industry chain benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend [3]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report suggests prioritizing investments in the turbine segment, which is expected to recover profitability, and in the foundation segment that is progressing quickly in Europe. The offshore wind market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on deep-sea projects [3]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policy's impact on the industry, particularly regarding the exit of inefficient capacity and the enhancement of efficiency in battery and module production [3]. Long-term Outlook for Renewable Energy Demand - The report indicates that China's renewable energy demand is expected to remain robust in the long term, with an average annual installation capacity of over 400GW projected from 2025 to 2035. This is driven by the country's energy security needs and the ongoing transition to a low-carbon economy [13][16]. - The "136 Document" is noted for guiding the development of renewable energy projects towards market-oriented pricing, which is expected to stabilize project returns and promote high-quality development in the sector [31]. Photovoltaic Sector Insights - The report anticipates a moderate decline in photovoltaic installations in 2026 due to a phase of pre-installation in 2025, with projected installations of 290GW in 2025 and 180GW in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 38% [33]. - The report highlights that the European photovoltaic market is facing growth challenges, with a forecasted installation of 64.2GW in 2025, indicating a slight decline. The U.S. market is also expected to experience pressure on growth due to policy adjustments [34][37]. Perovskite Technology Potential - Perovskite technology is identified as a key area for enhancing competitiveness in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in industrialization by leading manufacturers in 2026 [33][44].

Core Insights - The report highlights the current allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy industry rotation system, with significant positions in non-bank financials (11.8%), banks (9.3%), and transportation (9.1%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was 3.0%, with the best-performing sectors being defense and military (6.7%), communication (5.9%), and construction materials (5.7%) [3][10] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 31.4% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 5.3% [3] Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors for the week included defense and military (6.7%), communication (5.9%), and construction materials (5.7%), while the worst performers were coal (-1.4%), banks (-1.0%), and food and beverage (0.7%) [10][11] - The average monthly return for the past month was 3.3%, indicating a stable performance across sectors [10] Valuation Risk Warning - The report identifies several industries with high valuation risks, including retail, computer, non-ferrous metals, defense and military, petrochemicals, and electronics, which are currently above the 95th percentile of their historical PB valuations [12][13] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy (S1) are machinery, coal, and non-bank financials [15][16] - The implied sentiment momentum strategy (S2) ranks the top industries as basic chemicals, electronics, and communication [20] - The macro style rotation strategy (S3) identifies the top sectors as banks, home appliances, electric power and utilities, petrochemicals, transportation, and construction [25] Strategy Composite - The composite strategy has increased its positions in upstream and midstream cyclical sectors while reducing exposure to midstream non-cyclical sectors [3] - The highest weight strategy currently is the traditional multi-factor scoring strategy (S7) at 23.8%, while the macro style industry rotation strategy (S3) has the lowest weight at 7.1% [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that computing infrastructure will drive AI growth, focusing on the transformative "0 to 1" phase in the industry [1][3] - Storage price increases are expected to persist throughout 2026, with advancements in technologies like 4F2 and CBA becoming key development directions [1][3] - The consumer electronics sector faces both cost pressures and innovation opportunities, particularly with the emergence of edge AI chips [1][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies in various segments: - Computing: Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, and Muxi [3] - Advanced Manufacturing: SMIC and Huahong [3] - Advanced Packaging: Tongfu Microelectronics and Yongxi Electronics [3] - PCB: Shenghong Technology, Shenzhen South Circuit, and others [3] - Storage: Jiangbolong, Biwei Storage, and others [3] - Edge AI SoC: Amlogic, Hengxuan Technology, and others [3] - Autonomous Driving: Horizon Robotics and others [3] Industry Performance - The report notes that the semiconductor equipment and digital chip design sectors have shown significant revenue growth, with the semiconductor equipment sector achieving a 31% YoY increase [19][20] - The overall electronic industry saw a revenue increase of approximately 19% YoY, with net profits rising by 42% [19][20] - The Shenyuan Electronics Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index, with a growth of about 49.1% compared to 19.2% for the latter [14][15] AI Infrastructure and Market Trends - The demand for AI tokens has surged, with Google processing tokens reaching 1.3 trillion in October 2025, more than double the amount from May 2025 [26][27] - Major cloud service providers are increasing capital expenditures significantly, with North American firms expected to spend $34.96 billion in 2025, a 53% YoY increase [29][36] - The report highlights that the global storage market is projected to grow from $263.3 billion in 2025 to $407.1 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 11.5% [1][3] Challenges and Opportunities - The consumer electronics sector is expected to face an 8-10% increase in costs in 2025 and 5-7% in 2026 due to rising storage prices [1][3] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are experiencing both opportunities and challenges, with significant revenue growth reported for companies like Haiguang Information and Cambrian [52][54] - The introduction of NVIDIA's H200 chip could create a "catfish effect," prompting domestic manufacturers to enhance their products and performance [54]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 26 日 强于大市 光伏行业动态点评 产业链涨价成趋势，终端开始接受高价组件 光伏'反内卷'分为两条具体路线，'推动落后产能有序退出'、'新增优 质产能平稳接续'正在稳步推进中，表观层面产业链积极挺价，央国企也已 积极响应，看好高效电池组件溢价；维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 《电力设备与新能源行业 12 月第 4 周周报》 20251221 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备 证券分析师：武佳雄 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523070001 证券分析师：顾真 投资建议 光伏'反内卷'稳步推进，'推动落后产能有序退出'、'新增优质产 能平稳接续'正在进行中，表观层面产业链积极挺价，央国企也已积极 响应，看好高效电池组件溢价。推荐钧达股份、天合光能、晶澳科技、 晶科能源、隆基绿能，建议关注通威股份、协鑫科技、大全能源、双良 节能、弘元绿能。 评级面临的主要风险 原材料价格出现不利波动；国际贸易摩擦风险；新技术进展不达预期； 新能源政策风险；消纳风险 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the robust global capacity layout of the company, Sailun Tire, which is expected to drive revenue and performance growth through advanced technologies such as "liquid gold" tires and off-road tires [2][6][7] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic tire manufacturer with a strong emphasis on overseas production capacity and product value enhancement, leading to a buy rating [6][11] Company Overview - Sailun Tire is the first privately-owned tire company listed on the A-share market and has established overseas production bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and is constructing a facility in Egypt [7] - The company has a planned annual production capacity of 31.55 million all-steel tires, 109 million semi-steel tires, and 467,000 tons of off-road tires by mid-2025, with significant contributions from overseas bases [7][9] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16.76% year-on-year to 27.587 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.47% to 2.872 billion yuan [7] Industry Analysis - The global tire market is projected to exceed $190 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.15% from 2020 to 2024 [8] - The market share of leading domestic tire manufacturers, including Sailun Tire, has increased from 3.63% to 5.90% between 2016 and 2023 [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its multi-base collaboration strategy to enhance overseas production capacity, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit growth [9] - Sailun Tire's innovative "liquid gold" tire technology addresses longstanding industry challenges and is expected to enhance product performance and brand influence [10] Future Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 3.769 billion yuan, 4.815 billion yuan, and 5.600 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.15 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.70 yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of December 24, 2025 [1][3]. Core Views - The company, Sailun Tire, is recognized for its global capacity layout and continuous enhancement of product and brand strength. The company has established a comprehensive global production capacity and R&D system, positioning itself as a leading player in the domestic tire industry [3][17]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on overseas production bases, which are expected to drive revenue and performance growth through enhanced product value and capacity release [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.769 billion, RMB 4.815 billion, and RMB 5.600 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.15, RMB 1.46, and RMB 1.70. The PE ratios are expected to be 15.2x, 11.9x, and 10.2x for the same years [5]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.978 billion in 2023 to RMB 41.876 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% from 2023 to 2024 and 22.4% from 2024 to 2025 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - Sailun Tire is the first private tire company listed on the A-share market and has established overseas production bases in Vietnam and Cambodia, with ongoing projects in Egypt. The company aims to leverage cost advantages and mitigate trade risks through its global production strategy [8][18]. - The global tire market is projected to exceed USD 190 billion in 2023, with a steady growth rate of 4.15% CAGR from 2020 to 2024. The company is positioned to capture a larger market share as domestic brands increase their presence in the global market [11][41]. Product Development and Innovation - The company has developed a high-performance product known as "Liquid Gold" tire, which addresses long-standing industry challenges. This innovation is expected to enhance the company's product competitiveness and brand influence [8][17]. - The non-road tire segment is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing demand in mining and infrastructure sectors. The global non-road tire market is expected to grow from USD 34.4 billion in 2024 to USD 43.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.9% [8][12]. Capacity Expansion - As of 2025, the company plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 31.55 million all-steel tires, 109 million semi-steel tires, and 467,000 tons of non-road tires, with significant contributions from overseas bases [20][23]. - The company has successfully expanded its production capacity through strategic acquisitions and the establishment of new facilities, which have significantly contributed to revenue growth [24][25].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 12 月 24 日 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 中银晨会聚焦-20251224 ■重点关注 【电子】AI Infra 升级浪潮中的材料革命*苏凌瑶 茅珈恺。AI 推理需求催化 云厂商资本开支，计算效率和互联带宽协同升级。AI PCB 是 AI Infra 升级浪 潮中的核心增量环节。AI PCB 三大原材料电子布、铜箔、树脂则是构筑 PCB 介电性能的核心壁垒。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3919.98 | 0.07 | | 深证成指 | 13368.99 | 0.27 | | 沪深 300 | 4620.73 | 0.20 | | 中小 100 | 8111.91 | 0.35 | | 创业板指 | 3205.01 | 0.41 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | 1.12 | 社会服务 | (2 ...