策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 策略周报 聚焦科技核心资产 成长龙头崛起，中周期主线加速验证。 相关研究报告 《策略点评报告》20250822 《7 月外汇市场分析报告》20250822 《2025 年二季度货币政策执行报告点评》 20250819 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina. ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 8 月 25 日 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】7 月外汇市场分析报告*管涛 刘立品。7 月份，美国关税政策 继续增加全球贸易不确定性，但市场反应弱化，美元指数止跌回升，在岸人 民币时点汇率有所回调，均值汇率则继续走强，但市场主体并未积累补涨预 期。 【策略研究】策略点评报告*王君 徐沛东。2025 年 8 月 4 日—2025 年 8 月 17，日本期中国 A 股上市公司并购重组市场整体活跃度微降，呈现出"频率 高、主体多、领域广"的三大特点。 【交通运输】南方航空*王靖添 刘国强。南方航空机队规模位居全国首位， 载客量在国内航司中处于领先地位，是国内首个运输量过亿的航空公司。目 前中国民用机队规模增速呈"下台阶式"趋势，且受全球供应链扰动等因素 影响，主要飞机制造商订单交付能力下降。旅游市场的持续升温则有助于拉 动航空出行需求。今年前 6 个月，航空煤油均价较去年同期下降，有利于提 升公司的盈利能力。 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 4.82 | 银行 | (0 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2025 年 8 月 25 日 688519.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 67.87 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 239.9 66.3 90.1 252.6 相对上证综指 224.3 60.4 78.8 220.6 发行股数 (百万) 234.77 流通股 (百万) 234.77 总市值 (人民币 百万) 15,933.91 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 245.91 主要股东 上海南亚科技集团有限公司 53.69% (11%) 43% 98% 153% 207% 262% Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 南亚新材 上证综指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 8 月 21 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《南亚新材》20250417 《南亚新材》20250416 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：元件 证券 ...

买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 45.71 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 37.7 2.9 8.6 51.5 相对深圳成指 19.6 (5.4) (7.2) 6.6 发行股数 (百万) 1,754.08 流通股 (百万) 1,751.94 总市值 (人民币 百万) 80,178.86 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 636.19 主要股东持股比例 (8%) 5% 19% 32% 45% 59% Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 华东医药 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 8 月 21 日收市价为标准 医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2025 年 8 月 25 日 000963.SZ 相关研究报告 《华东医药》20250424 《华东医药》20241028 《华东医药》20240816 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 医药生物：化学制药 证券分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 21.42 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's core OTA (Online Travel Agency) business shows steady growth, with a revenue of RMB 4.669 billion in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 775 million, up 18.0% year-on-year. The report emphasizes the company's significant long-term competitive advantages [3][5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 4.669 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.185 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.7%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 775 million, up 18.0% year-on-year. The core OTA business generated revenue of RMB 4.01 billion, a 13.7% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company's gross margin stood at 65.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. Cost optimization led to improved profit margins, with the OTA operating profit margin at 26.7%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Business Segments - Revenue from the accommodation, transportation ticketing, vacation, and other segments in Q2 2025 was RMB 1.37 billion, RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 660 million, and RMB 760 million, respectively. The transportation segment saw a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in international ticket volume [8]. Market Outlook - The domestic travel market remains robust, with cross-border travel continuing to grow. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's growth in lower-tier markets and is actively expanding its business [5][8]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 2.707 billion, RMB 3.369 billion, and RMB 4.082 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.0, 13.7, and 11.3 times [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - China Southern Airlines has the largest fleet size in the country and leads in passenger capacity among domestic airlines. The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, while the ongoing recovery in the tourism market is expected to boost air travel demand. The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased compared to the same period last year, which is beneficial for enhancing the company's profitability [1][5][8]. Company Overview - China Southern Airlines is the leading air transport service provider in China, with a well-established fleet and a focus on building dual hubs in Guangzhou and Beijing. The company has maintained the highest passenger transport volume among domestic airlines for 44 consecutive years. The airline operates a diverse fleet, including Boeing and Airbus models, and has a significant market share in terms of flight frequency and route network [16][24][25]. Financial Data - The company's total revenue for 2024 reached approximately 174.22 billion RMB, marking a 8.94% year-on-year increase, and is the highest in nearly a decade. The company has experienced continuous losses for four years since the pandemic, but the financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in revenue in 2023 [39][41][43]. Industry Overview - The aviation industry in China has seen a 172.8% growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a gradual marketization of air ticket pricing. The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) account for over 62.64% of the total transport turnover in the market. The domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86% [47][48][49].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The opening of the first low-altitude cargo route between Wuhan and Ezhou, along with high passenger traffic at Shanghai ports during the summer season, indicates growth in logistics and transportation [2][3] - Oil shipping rates remain low and fluctuating, while shipping rates for routes to Europe and the US continue to decline [3][16] - Joby Aviation successfully completed the world's first manned eVTOL flight between airports, showcasing advancements in aviation technology [3][17] - National railway coal shipments reached 1.02 billion tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong demand in the transportation sector [3][27] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - Oil shipping rates are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index at 1064.60 points, up 0.7% from the previous week [15] - The shipping market is showing signs of weakness, with rates for routes to Europe and the US declining by 7.2% and 3.5% respectively [16] - The first low-altitude cargo flight between Ezhou and Wuhan was completed, marking a significant development in regional logistics [25][26] Passenger Transport - Shanghai's passenger traffic has remained high, averaging 129,000 daily entries and exits, a year-on-year increase of over 14% [18] - The peak day recorded 157,000 passengers, indicating a strong recovery in air travel [18] Freight and Rail Transport - In the first half of 2025, national railways transported 1.98 billion tons of goods, with coal shipments accounting for 1.02 billion tons [27] - The average daily loading of coal cars was 182,400, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year increase [27] High-frequency Data Tracking - Air cargo prices have shown a slight decline, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4455.00 points, down 4.1% year-on-year [28] - The domestic air cargo flight volume increased by 7.61% year-on-year in July 2025, while international flights rose by 23.31% [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Consider opportunities in low-altitude economy investments, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, with recommendations for Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Pay attention to the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Core Insights - The overall activity level of the A-share merger and acquisition market in China has slightly decreased, characterized by high frequency, diverse participants, and broad sectors [1] - A total of 80 merger and acquisition events were disclosed during the period, with a total transaction amount of 601.88 billion RMB, showing a significant increase in both the number and value of major M&A events compared to the previous period [2] - The real estate management and development, other metals and mining, semiconductor products, electronic equipment, instruments and components, electrical equipment, and automotive parts sectors are particularly active in M&A activities [2][3] - Private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are actively engaging in horizontal integration and strategic cooperation, indicating diverse motivations for mergers and acquisitions [1][2] - The M&A market is expected to further release integration and value reconstruction potential, supported by regulatory policy optimization, economic recovery, policy encouragement, and capital market reforms [1] M&A Market Overview - The number of major M&A events in the A-share market increased by 60% compared to the previous period, with a total disclosed transaction amount of 601.88 billion RMB, representing a 187.97% increase [2] - Key sectors for M&A activities include real estate management and development, other metals and mining, semiconductor products, electronic equipment, instruments and components, electrical equipment, and automotive parts [2] - The market is entering a new phase characterized by "efficiency improvement + structural optimization," driven by policy and proactive corporate adjustments [2] Listed Companies' M&A Plans - A total of 44 listed companies announced or planned M&A activities, with an average stock price fluctuation of 7.53% over two weeks [2] - 22 companies made significant progress after announcing M&A plans, with an average stock price fluctuation of 3.76% [2] - The number of major restructuring events increased by 60% compared to the previous period, with research enthusiasm rising by 11.54% [2] Companies with Significant Progress - Companies such as Yunnan Cheng Investment and AnYuan Coal Industry have made notable advancements in their M&A plans, with various strategic objectives including asset adjustments and diversification [10][11] - The progress of these companies reflects a broader trend of active restructuring and strategic realignment within the A-share market [10][11] Market Sentiment and Performance - The restructuring index showed a fluctuation of 5.10% over the two-week period, indicating a positive sentiment in the M&A market [12] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and market values of companies involved in M&A activities vary significantly, reflecting diverse market conditions and investor sentiments [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the recent price movements in lithium carbonate, international oil prices, and organic silicon prices, with a focus on the implications of these changes for various sub-industries [1][7] - Key areas of focus for August include mid-year report trends, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [1][8] Industry Dynamics - In the week of August 11-17, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 28 saw price increases, 42 saw declines, and 30 remained stable. Overall, 57% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 37% saw a decrease [2][7] - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 17.48% compared to the previous week, reaching 84,000 CNY/ton, marking a cumulative increase of 41.18% since June 20 [2][7] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at 62.80 USD/barrel (down 1.69%) and Brent crude at 65.85 USD/barrel (down 1.11%) [2][7] - Organic silicon prices decreased by 8.00% to an average of 11,500 CNY/ton, attributed to weak terminal demand and the conclusion of pre-sale orders [2][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year report trends, the effects of "anti-involution" on supply, the significance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and the stability of dividend policies in energy companies [1][8] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, the ongoing recovery of the oil service industry, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [8] - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several technology and chemical companies [8][9]

Daily Spotlight 22 August 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,105 | (0.2) | 25.1 | | HSCEI | 8,975 | (0.4) | 23.1 | | HSCCI | 4,360 | 0.3 | 15.3 | | MSCI HK | 13,388 | (0.0) | 26.7 | | MSCI CHINA | 82 | (0.0) | 26.4 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 14,465 | 0.5 | 7.0 | | CSI 300 | 4,288 | 0.4 | 9.0 | | TWSE | 23,962 | 1.4 | 4.0 | | SENSEX | 81,858 | 0.3 | 4.8 | | NIKKEI 225 | 42,610 | (0.6) | 6.8 | | KOSPI | ...