Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.79% this week, with the CSI 300 index futures increasing by 3.20% [1][3][13] - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity futures, with coking coal futures up by 6.50% and iron ore futures up by 3.23% [3][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao (a money market fund) decreased by 2 basis points to 1.03%, while the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 4 basis points to 1.88% [3][13] Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for December 2025 showed a mixed picture, with new jobs added decreasing to 50,000, down by 14,000 month-on-month, indicating weakness in the private sector, particularly in manufacturing [4] - Average hourly earnings in the private sector increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%, down by 0.1 percentage points [4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as follows: equities > commodities > bonds > cash, suggesting an overweight position in stocks and a cautious stance on bonds and cash [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of incremental policies in the stock market [6] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity futures index increased by 4.01% this week, with notable gains in precious metals (6.84%) and non-ferrous metals (5.19%) [52] - Lithium carbonate saw a significant price increase of 17.80%, while industrial silicon experienced a decline of 1.56% [52][53] Real Estate and Automotive Sector Trends - The report notes a decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, with a weekly transaction area of 226.42 million square meters, but anticipates stabilization due to supportive policies [37] - In the automotive sector, wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a year-on-year increase of 45% and 17%, respectively, indicating strong consumer demand [43]

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight improvement in December's CPI and PPI growth rates, which were better than consensus expectations, indicating a positive trend in consumer prices and industrial production prices [2][4][5] - The report emphasizes the ongoing effects of consumption-boosting policies, which have contributed to the stabilization and gradual recovery of prices in various sectors [4][5][6] - The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 may support a moderate increase in both CPI and PPI, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and policy measures [6][12] Macroeconomic Overview - December CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year [4][5] - Food prices had a lesser drag on CPI, contributing approximately 0.05 percentage points to the month-on-month increase, while industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) contributed about 0.16 percentage points [4][5] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% but a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, indicating a mixed performance in industrial prices [5][6] Strategy Research - The report discusses the current valuation pressures on the A-share market, noting that the equity risk premium (ERP) is approaching a critical threshold, which could limit upside potential [8][10] - Historical analysis indicates that the A-share index has only breached the "2X" ERP threshold during significant bull markets in 2007 and 2015, suggesting caution in the current market environment [8][9] - The report outlines four constraints that may prevent a repeat of past "2X" breakthroughs, including limited profit elasticity, a shift in funding sources, and regulatory expectations [9][10] Fixed Income Outlook - The report anticipates that fiscal policy will maintain a stable broad deficit rate relative to 2025, while monetary policy may allow for two 10 basis point rate cuts and one to two 25 basis point reserve requirement ratio reductions [12][16] - The interplay between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for interest rate movements, with potential upward pressure from stronger fiscal measures and downward pressure from more aggressive monetary easing [12][16] - The bond market is expected to experience range-bound trading with opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches or reaches 1.9% [12][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to grow rapidly in 2026, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery industry, which is likely to improve profitability across the supply chain [1]. - Sodium batteries are anticipated to enter large-scale applications, while solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, highlighting the importance of related materials and equipment companies [1]. - The photovoltaic sector is focusing on "anti-involution" as a key investment theme, with regulatory discussions aimed at controlling upstream silicon material prices and enhancing profitability in downstream battery components [1]. - The demand for wind power is expected to continue growing, supported by government initiatives for new photovoltaic and wind power projects [1]. - The energy storage sector remains robust, with recommendations to focus on energy cell and large-scale integration manufacturers [1]. - Hydrogen energy is projected to open new demand avenues, particularly in green hydrogen applications, with a focus on equipment and operational segments [1]. - Nuclear fusion is identified as a long-term energy development direction, with recommendations to monitor core suppliers in this area [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Expected sales in 2025 for new energy passenger vehicles in China are projected at 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2]. Battery Technology - CATL announced plans for large-scale sodium battery applications in 2026, while solid-state battery prototypes are entering real vehicle testing [2]. Photovoltaic Industry - The cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products is set to take effect from April 1, 2026, impacting market dynamics [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price adjustments, with silicon material prices rising and a focus on maintaining profitability in the supply chain [15][19]. Wind Power - The wind power sector saw significant growth, with a 22.06% increase in stock prices for wind energy companies [10][13]. Energy Storage - The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly, with current prices around 115,000-119,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 19.1% increase [27]. - Energy cell prices for various models have also increased, with the average price for 100 Ah cells at 0.403 RMB per watt-hour, up from previous levels [28]. Market Trends - The overall power equipment and new energy sector saw a 5.02% increase in stock prices, outperforming the broader market indices [10][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [49]. Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on the supply side of related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies amid strong downstream demand and price increases in certain new energy materials [3][12]. - The report highlights a mid-to-long-term investment theme where policy support is expected to lead to demand recovery, continuous optimization of the supply side, and potential dual improvements in performance and valuation for excellent leading enterprises [3][12]. - Emerging fields such as semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials are identified as having significant growth potential due to rapid development in downstream industries [3][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of January 9, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 27.07, at the 80.09 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.45, at the 67.22 percentile historically [3][12]. - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 13.49, at the 40.05 percentile historically, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.31, at the 42.27 percentile historically [3][12]. Price Changes and Market Performance - During the week of January 5-11, 34 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 31 experienced declines, and 35 remained stable. Overall, 49% of products had month-over-month price increases, while 41% saw decreases [9][30]. - The average price of WTI crude oil rose to $59.12 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.14%, while Brent crude oil reached $63.34 per barrel, up 4.26% [31][30]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others, with a focus on companies benefiting from policy support and strong demand in emerging sectors [3][12]. - The report identifies "golden stocks" for January as Wanhua Chemical and Yake Technology, emphasizing their potential for growth [3][12].

Economic Overview - The current account surplus expanded by 89% year-on-year to $492.8 billion, with a trade surplus contributing 40% and a reduction in service trade deficit contributing 14%[2] - The current account surplus accounted for 4.0% of GDP in Q3, the highest since 2011, indicating a need to be cautious of rising trade protectionism risks[2] Capital Flows - The capital account deficit increased by 87% year-on-year to $545.3 billion, with the online capital account deficit rising by 105% to $570.5 billion, marking a historical high[11] - Domestic capital outflow reached a record high of $5.615 billion, while foreign capital shifted from a net inflow of $57.1 billion to a slight outflow of $90 million[11] Investment Trends - Outward securities investment net outflow reached $263.2 billion, the highest for the same period, while other investments saw a net outflow increase of $1.133 billion to $1.705 billion[16] - Foreign debt and equity investment outflows were significant, with net outflows of $277 billion and $275.2 billion respectively, both reaching historical highs[16] Foreign Exchange Reserves - Foreign exchange reserves increased by $136.3 billion to $3.34 trillion, the highest since December 2015, driven by positive valuation effects from exchange rates and asset prices[41] - Gold reserves reached $283.3 billion, accounting for 8.5% of total foreign exchange reserves, marking a historical high[42] Market Sensitivity - The private sector's net foreign position turned positive for three consecutive quarters, indicating a shift towards a net creditor status, with net assets rising to $358.7 billion from a net liability of $159.8 billion at the end of the previous year[47] - The sensitivity of market participants to RMB appreciation may have increased, as the expectation of currency depreciation has shifted[51]

Core Insights - The AI industry is transitioning from a "computing power competition" phase to a focus on "application landing," indicating a maturation of business models within the sector [1][3][4] - The successful listings of Zhizhu AI and MiniMax on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange signify that the large model industry has reached a relatively mature business model, with stable customer bases and clearer compliance boundaries [3][4] - The acceleration of AI application commercialization is expected to catalyze a new wave of software market activity, driven by the evolving business models in the AI sector [5][6] Market Trends - Since 2025, the AI industry chain has experienced a rotation from overseas computing power to domestic computing power, and now to storage and electricity, with AI applications showing limited growth compared to overseas computing power [6] - The AI market is entering its second half in 2026, with AI applications becoming a core focus for investors, offering high configuration cost-effectiveness [6] - Historical patterns indicate that hard technology follows a cyclical framework, while soft technology trends are more influenced by changes in business models, suggesting that the current AI application commercialization could drive significant market activity [5][6] Performance Indicators - The performance of AI application companies has shown signs of recovery, as evidenced by notable reversals in earnings reported in Q3 2025, indicating that the business models for AI applications are beginning to materialize [4][5] - The increasing performance of large models is expected to enhance the efficiency of downstream applications, creating a closed-loop commercial logic that is crucial for the sustainability of the AI industry [4][5]

Core Insights - The report predicts that global electric vehicle (EV) sales will maintain a high level of growth, potentially reaching a record high by 2026, driven by strong demand and the acceleration of solid-state battery technology commercialization [1][3] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the industry, highlighting the expected reshaping of the supply-demand landscape and the potential for profit growth across the supply chain [1] Industry Overview - The global EV market continues to expand, with a projected 2026 sales volume of approximately 26 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15% [3][49] - In 2025, the global EV sales reached approximately 15.02 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [15][19] - The penetration rate of EVs in the Chinese market has surpassed 50%, with expectations for continued growth despite the upcoming reduction in purchase tax exemptions [32] Battery Technology - The report emphasizes the ongoing upward trend in the power battery sector, with a significant increase in installed capacity expected to continue into 2026 [51] - Solid-state battery technology is entering a critical phase of pilot testing and small-scale production, which is anticipated to drive technological upgrades across the industry [3][51] Supply Chain Dynamics - The materials segment is expected to experience a recovery in profitability, driven by a consensus against excessive competition and a significant increase in demand [3][51] - Key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate are experiencing supply-demand mismatches, leading to price recovery and improved profitability for leading companies in the sector [3][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in segments with tightening supply-demand dynamics, such as lithium iron phosphate cathodes, separators, anodes, and copper foils [3] - Recommended companies include CATL, EVE Energy, and others that are positioned to benefit from stable supply and mature processes [3]

中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 大势与风格 5 | | 中观行业与景气 7 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 9 | | 风险提示 10 | tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 1 月 11 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, valuation metrics, and style performance without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [1][2][3] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report [1][2][3]

Inflation Overview - December CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year[2] - Food prices contributed approximately 0.05 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI increase, while industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) added about 0.16 percentage points[2] - Year-on-year, service prices contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points to CPI, and industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) contributed about 0.63 percentage points[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with PPIRM down by 2.1% year-on-year[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw prices rise for three consecutive months, indicating improved supply-demand structures[19] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is narrowing, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals prices by 10.5%[19] Policy Impact - Consumer stimulus policies are showing continued effects, with a notable reduction in the drag from food prices on CPI[7] - The strategy to boost CPI growth in 2026 focuses on reducing food price impacts, improving industrial consumer goods prices, and enhancing service consumption[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[22]