房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 7 月 17 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 6 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房价跌幅大 于二、三线城市 国家统计局发布 2025 年 6 月份 70 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。70 大中城 市新房价格环比下降 0.3%；二手房价格环比下降 0.6%。 核心观点 投资建议 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 《5 月新房成交同比降幅收窄，二手房成交动能持 续转弱；土拍溢价率持续回落——房地产行业 2025 年 5 月月报》（2025/06/17） 《单月销售面积与投资降幅进一步扩大；开竣工降 幅虽收窄，但仍处于历史低位——房地产行业 2025 年 5 月统计局数据点评》（2025/06/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅扩大；一线城市二手房房价环 比跌幅明显走扩——房地产行业 2025 年 5 月 70 个 大中城市房价数据点评》（2025/06/17） 《"城市更新"成为楼市重要的增量筹码，维稳房地 产市场是当前扩内需的重要一环——2025 年 4 月中 央政 ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 7 月 17 日 2. 商品住宅库存： ◼ 现房住宅库存压力仍然较大，占整体库存的比重已经达到近四分之一。1）从全国商品住宅广义库存面积（住宅 累计新开工面积-住宅累计销售面积）来看，截至 6 月末，我国商品住宅广义库存面积为 16.3 亿平，环比下降 2.0%，同比下降 16.2%；去化周期（广义库存面积/过去六个月住宅销售均值）25.5 个月，环比下降 0.1 个月，同 比下降 3.6 个月。2）从全国现房库存（已竣工未销售）来看，截至 6 月末，我国住宅现房库存面积（住宅待售 面积）约 4.08 亿平，环比下降 1.1%，同比增长 6.5%；现房去化周期为 19.7 个月（由于 5 月现房销售未公布， 我们采用 2024 年 12 月-2025 年 5 月销售均值计算），环比下降 0.2 个月，同比下降 1.8 个月；住宅现房库存占 全国住宅广义库存面积的比重为 25.0%，环比提升 0.2 个百分点，同比提升 5.3 个百分点。 3. 房地产开发投资、新开工、竣工： 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 6 月统计局数据点评 单月销售与投资降幅扩大； ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 7 月 17 日 上半年进出口数据点评 部分产品出口价格有所改善 6 月我国出口同比增速延续正增长。东盟、欧盟对 6 月我国出口同比增速仍 有支撑。部分轻工业品及机电产品出口价格有所改善。 ◼ 6 月我国出口同比增速延续正增长。7 月 14 日，海关总署公布数据显 示，以美元计价，上半年我国出口同比增长 5.9%，延续正增长，增速较 1-5 月收窄 0.1 个百分点；进口同比下滑 3.9%，降幅较 1-5 月收窄 1.0 个 百分点；贸易顺差实现 5859.6 亿美元。以人民币计价，上半年我国出口 同比增长 7.2%，增幅较 1-5 月持平；进口同比下滑 2.7%，降幅较 1-5 月 收窄 1.1 个百分点；贸易顺差实现 42125.1 亿元。 单月数据方面，以美元计价，6 月我国出口同比增长 5.8%，增速较上月 上升 1.0个百分点；进口同比增长 1.1%，增速转正，较上月回升 4.5个百 分点；贸易顺差 1147.7 亿美元，较上月上升 115.5 亿美元。从环比数据 看，6 月我国出口当月环比增速实现 2.9%，我国出口整体维持韧性。 ◼ 东盟、 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 17 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250717 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】6 月和二季度经济数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。上半年实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%，下半年稳增长仍需加力提效。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3503.78 | (0.03) | | 深证成指 | 10720.81 | (0.22) | | 沪深 300 | 4007.20 | (0.30) | | 中小 100 | 6654.27 | (0.36) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社会服务 | 1.13 | 钢铁 | (1.28) | | 汽车 | 1.07 | 银行 | (0.74) | | 医药生物 | 0.95 | 有色金属 | (0.45) | | 轻工制造 | 0.94 | 非银金融 | (0.43) | | 农林牧渔 | 0.85 | 建筑装饰 | (0.42) | 资料来源：万得 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 7 月 16 日 6 月和二季度经济数据点评 财政政策加力提效对下半年稳经济很重要 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 上半年实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%，下半年稳增长仍需加力提效。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》20250715 《6 月金融数据点评》20250715 《市场点评报告》20250715 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 2025 年二季度 GDP 实际同比增速 5.2%，名义 GDP 同比增速 3.9%，上半 年实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%。上半年平减指数累计同比下降 1.0%， 降幅较一季度扩大。 6 月工业增加值同比增长 6.8%，1-6 月采矿业工业增加值累计同比增速 6.0%，制造业累计同比增速 7.0%，公用事业累计同比增速 1.9%，高 ...

Group 1 - The BOCIASI A-share sentiment indicator has issued a cautious signal after three months, indicating a need for attention [2][3][4] - The report discusses two main questions: understanding the recent market rally and actions to take following the cautious signal [4] - The A-share index has touched the upper bound of its range three times since October 2024, with the BOCIASI indicator accurately signaling caution each time [4][6] Group 2 - The recent market rally can be divided into three phases, driven by external environment improvements and policy expectations [4][7] - The first phase benefited from the easing of geopolitical tensions, while the second phase was supported by a significant rise in financial stocks, particularly banks [7] - The third phase saw a rotation in midstream industries, supported by the "anti-involution" policy announced after the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 [7][8] Group 3 - Following the cautious signal, the sentiment indicator's slow line reading was at 44.6%, just above the cautious threshold of 44.4%, while the fast line reading was at 61.2%, below the cautious threshold of 70.0% [8] - The current market state is expected to enter a "high-level oscillation" or "slight adjustment" phase, with a medium-term strategy of "two advances and one retreat" [8][9] - Four strategies are suggested for current market conditions, including focusing on defensive sectors and optimizing portfolios [8][9][10]

中银 IIE 策略研究 | 证券研究报告 -- 总量点评 2025年7月15日 市场点评报告 科创板再添"前置工具",助力IPO生态优化 上交所试点"预先审阅"机制,强化科创板对硬科技企业支持。 相关研究报告 《策略点评》 20250618 《5月经济数据点评》20250616 《市场点评报告》 20250616 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师:王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang(a bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300519060003 证券分析师:徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300518020001 ■ 风险提示:政策落地速度及实施效果的不确定性;实施细则及标准仍需进 一步明确。 ■ 2025年7月13日,上海证券交易所正式发布《上海证券交易所发行上市 审核规则适用指引第 7 号 -- 预先审阅》 (上证发〔2025〕87 号) (下 称为《指引》,即日起施行。该《指引》聚焦提升审核制度的包容性和 适应性,重点服务开展关键核心技术 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [37]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive outlook for financial IT and cross-border payment companies due to the recent policy developments in stablecoins, RDA, and CIPS, which are expected to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and improve transparency in cross-border payments and settlements [1][4][21]. - The stablecoin market is diversifying, with various participants including fintech companies and traditional banks, which is likely to enhance the credibility and application scenarios of stablecoins [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," with expectations of better performance compared to the benchmark index [37]. Company Dynamics - Jiuyuan Yinhai expects to achieve revenue of 414-454 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%-15%, with net profit expected to grow significantly by 130%-180% [3]. - Inspur Information plans to repurchase its A-shares with a total fund of no less than 200 million yuan and no more than 300 million yuan, with an expected repurchase price not exceeding 75.59 yuan per share [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Runhe Software, Nantian Information, Borui Data, Huichen Shares, Digital Government, and Jiuyuan Yinhai, which are expected to benefit from the developments in stablecoins and related technologies [4][21]. Policy Developments - Recent policies in regions like Hong Kong and Shanghai are aimed at promoting the development of stablecoins and their applications, including the issuance of tokenized government bonds and enhancing the management mechanisms for cross-border payment systems [15][18][21]. - The introduction of the RDA paradigm by the Shanghai Data Exchange emphasizes the importance of data in verifying the authenticity and enhancing the value of real-world assets [20][21]. Market Trends - The stablecoin market is expanding into real-world applications, particularly in cross-border payments, B2B payments, and asset tokenization, which are expected to grow rapidly [14][21]. - The report notes that the development of stablecoins will increase the demand for system upgrades and related services from financial IT companies [21].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The shipping rates for oil tankers in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have slightly increased, while the container shipping rates for the US routes have rebounded and the European routes remain stable [3][13] - Hefei is building the first national drone-sharing airport network, and Pudong Airport has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in inbound and outbound passengers in the first half of the year [3][16] - Jitu Express reported a 65.9% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, marking the highest growth rate since its listing [3][24] Industry Dynamics - **Shipping and Ports**: The VLCC market has returned to a supply-demand balance, with overall vessel supply remaining ample. The shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at WS49.24, up 2.48% from July 3 [3][14] - **Container Shipping**: The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have shown slight fluctuations, with rates to the US West and East coasts increasing by 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [3][15] - **Aviation**: The first half of 2025 saw Pudong Airport handle 18.26 million passengers, a 23.44% increase year-on-year, with new international routes contributing to this growth [3][18] - **Logistics**: Jitu Express's package volume in Southeast Asia reached 1.69 billion packages in Q2, with a 65.9% increase year-on-year, while the overall global package volume grew by 23.5% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies such as Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Guangdong Expressway, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [4] - Monitor e-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Look into aviation industry investment opportunities, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [5]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 7 月 15 日 6 月金融数据点评 关注实体经济融资需求向好的持续性 6 月新增社融高于万得一致预期，新增人民币贷款也高于万得一致预期；此前宽松的 一揽子货币政策持续推动 M0 和 M1 增速稳中向好；6 月半年末时点和"抢出口"效应 对实体经济融资需求的扰动较大。 相关研究报告 《听证会或定调关税、"反内卷"将稳定通胀》 20250714 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20250713 《中银量化大类资产跟踪》20250713 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ◼ 6 月新增社融 4.20 万亿元，较去年同期多增 9008 亿元，较 5 月多增 1.91 万亿元， 高于万得一致预期的 3.71 万亿元。6 月社融存量同比增长 8.90%，较 ...