Investment Rating - CMOC Group Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$10.74 [4][5][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd is rated as HOLD with a target price of HK$90.00 [7][9][10] - Poly Property Service is rated as BUY with a target price of HK$45.65 [12][13][14] Core Insights - CMOC Group Ltd's net profit surged 60% YoY to RMB8.67 billion in 1H25, driven by higher metal prices and reduced expenses [4][6] - RemeGen Co Ltd's revenue reached RMB1.09 billion, a 48% YoY increase, with a narrowing net loss of 42% to RMB450 million, indicating strong drug sales momentum [7][10] - Poly Property Service's revenue grew 6.6% YoY to RMB8.39 billion, with basic property management revenue increasing by 13.1% YoY [12][14] Summary by Sections CMOC Group Ltd - The company experienced a significant profit increase due to rising metal prices and lower interest expenses [4][6] - Earnings are expected to grow by 32% HoH in 2H25, supported by a RMB1.5 billion disposal gain [5][6] - The stock has outperformed the market by 71% in the past three months, leading to a downgrade to HOLD [5][6] RemeGen Co Ltd - The company reported strong revenue growth and a significant reduction in net loss, with expectations of breakeven by 2026 [7][10] - Key catalysts for future growth include data publications and regulatory submissions for its drug candidates [8][9] - The target price reflects anticipated peak sales for its key products in China and overseas [9][11] Poly Property Service - The company’s revenue growth was in line with expectations, with strong performance in core property management services [12][14] - Despite a decline in gross margin for other sectors, community value-added services saw an improvement [13][14] - EPS forecasts for 2026-27 have been increased due to accelerated property management revenue growth [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational performance, with a focus on its core business areas and the development of new industries. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 22.597 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.46%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.829 billion, up 13.15% year-on-year [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in traditional sectors and the promising growth potential in new productivity sectors, supporting the "Buy" rating [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 22.597 billion, with a gross profit margin of 15.33%, an increase of 1.18 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from energy logistics services, energy technology services, and low-carbon environmental and digitalization sectors were RMB 11.640 billion, RMB 7.993 billion, and RMB 3.870 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.13%, 2.79%, and 11.17% [9][10]. - The company’s net profit for the second quarter of 2025 was RMB 1.235 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [11]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of RMB 4.102 billion, RMB 4.646 billion, and RMB 5.177 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.1x, 8.9x, and 8.0x [6][8]. Business Development - The company is actively enhancing its full-chain service capabilities and pursuing high-end, digital, and green upgrades across its three main business areas. The report notes significant growth in core capabilities, with a 16.11% increase in the workload of downhole tools and a 32.89% increase in new energy technology business workload [9][10]. - The company is also focusing on strategic emerging industries, with ongoing projects in six major areas and 137 products and services, including advancements in marine big data ecosystems and domestic production of key technologies [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the current goal of the real estate industry is to stabilize the market and prevent further declines, with a focus on urban renewal as a key task [5][6] - The report highlights that the sales and investment data in the real estate sector have weakened significantly since Q2 2025, indicating a need for policies to support market recovery [6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - New housing transaction area increased by 14.0% month-on-month but decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities [18][19] - Second-hand housing transaction area increased by 7.6% month-on-month and rose by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a positive shift [48] - New housing inventory area increased by 0.3% month-on-month but decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 19.0 months [43][49] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 760.7 million square meters, down 51.6% month-on-month and 40.5% year-on-year, while the total land price was 199.4 billion, down 20.4% month-on-month and 7.4% year-on-year [62][68] - The average floor price of land was 2,621.8 yuan per square meter, up 64.5% month-on-month and 55.7% year-on-year [64][68] 3. Policy Overview - The report outlines various local government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including measures to support housing loans and improve public fund efficiency [93][94] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with a positive outlook on its semiconductor business development [1][9] - The company reported a revenue of 1.732 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 311 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.78% [10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,732 million RMB, up 14% from the previous year, and a net profit of 311 million RMB, up 42.78% [10] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 907.65 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.94%, and a net profit of 170.05 million RMB, up 24.79% [11] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 49.24%, an increase of 4.05 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.05%, up 2.20 percentage points [9] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 688 million RMB, 882 million RMB, and 1.092 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the same years is 0.73 RMB, 0.93 RMB, and 1.16 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 43.4, 33.8, and 27.3 [6][12] Business Segment Performance - The CMP polishing pads segment achieved a revenue of 475 million RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 59.58% [9] - The semiconductor display materials segment generated a revenue of 271 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.90% [9] - The company is actively developing high-end wafer photoresists, with nearly 30 products in the pipeline and several in the testing phase [9]

Key Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for August, including companies like SF Holding, Satellite Chemical, and Anji Technology, indicating potential investment opportunities in these firms [1] - The report emphasizes the steady growth of Tongcheng Travel, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching 4.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and an adjusted net profit of 775 million yuan, up 18.0% [3][8] - Nanya Technology's performance in Q2 2025 shows significant growth, with revenue of 2.305 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.06%, and a net profit of 87 million yuan, up 57.69% [13][14] - East China Pharmaceutical's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 21.675 billion yuan, a 3.39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.815 billion yuan, up 7.01% [18][19] Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of industry performance, with the telecommunications sector leading with a 4.85% increase, followed by non-ferrous metals at 4.63% and real estate at 3.32% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56, reflecting a 1.51% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.26% to 12441.07 [4] Company-Specific Highlights - Tongcheng Travel's core OTA business showed robust growth, with Q2 2025 OTA revenue reaching 4.01 billion yuan, a 13.7% increase year-on-year [9] - Nanya Technology's high-end product demand is driven by AI applications, with significant growth in high-end copper-clad laminate sales [15][16] - East China Pharmaceutical's innovative products are entering a harvest phase, with a notable increase in revenue from innovative products, reaching 1.084 billion yuan, a 59% year-on-year growth [20][21]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, construction, or testing results. The content primarily focuses on market trends, style performance, valuation metrics, and fund flows without detailing quantitative methodologies or factor-based strategies. [1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4][6] Core Views - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with financial statements being cleaned up, and is expected to gradually emerge from this bottom adjustment period as channel health improves [4][6][9] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue of RMB 14.8 billion, down 35.3% year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 4.34 billion, down 45.3% year-on-year [4][10] - The company is focusing on core products and inventory reduction strategies to alleviate channel pressure, with a notable decrease in the number of distributors impacting revenue [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For 1H25, the company achieved revenue of RMB 14.8 billion, a decrease of 35.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 4.34 billion, a decrease of 45.3% year-on-year [4][10] - In 2Q25, revenue was RMB 3.73 billion, down 43.7% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 707 million, down 62.7% year-on-year [10] - The company’s gross margin for 1H25 was 75.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [10] Valuation and Forecast - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of no less than 70% of net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, with a minimum of RMB 7 billion (including tax) [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 4.32 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 35.3%, followed by a recovery in 2026 with an expected net profit of RMB 4.60 billion, representing a growth of 6.5% [6][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 25.2X for 2025, 23.7X for 2026, and 21.9X for 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts in the photovoltaic sector, with government initiatives aimed at regulating low-price competition and promoting product quality [1] - In the electric vehicle sector, the report anticipates continued high growth in domestic sales driven by new model releases and the upcoming sales peak, which will boost demand for batteries and materials [1] - The solid-state battery industry is showing clear trends towards industrialization, with significant advancements reported by leading companies [1] Industry Overview - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 2.28%, with notable performances in various sub-sectors: industrial automation up 3.84%, new energy vehicles up 3.69%, and photovoltaic sector up 3.39% [2][10] - The report notes that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach a new high of 56.7% in August, with retail sales projected to hit around 1.1 million units [2][25] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to further regulate competition in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and fair competition [2][25] Company Performance - Major companies reported varying profit results for the first half of 2025: - Huayou Cobalt reported a net profit of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% year-on-year [27] - Tianqi Lithium reported a net profit of 3.07 billion yuan, up 27.76% year-on-year [27] - However, Tongwei Co. reported a net loss of 4.955 billion yuan [27] - The report also highlights significant partnerships, such as Chuangneng New Energy signing a battery development agreement with Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile to supply over 30 GWh of battery products over the next five years [25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1][3][10][14][22][39][49][83] Core Viewpoints - The determination of the interest rate term structure is the result of the combined effects of liquidity preference, rational expectations, and term preference. The current flat state of China's interest rate term structure has rationality and inertia, but it is difficult to further flatten, and a slow steepening may occur in the next stage [3][13][83] - The general change rule of the interest rate term structure in the US and Japan conforms to the rational expectations theory, with the main change patterns being "bull steepening" or "bear flattening." However, under some special conditions, the term preference theory also has certain explanatory power. When the short - end yield "hits bottom," the change in the curve shape is also special, mainly dominated by the long - end yield [3][21][83] - Since the end of 2024, China's interest rate term structure has experienced a relatively rare "bull flattening," which may be related to the flattening of inflation expectations from a rational expectations perspective and the term preferences of institutional investors such as insurance and banks from a term preference perspective [3][22][83] - Currently, it is advisable to analyze the pricing of long - and short - end interest rates separately. The short - end yield depends on policy expectations, and the long - end yield depends on the real estate cycle [3][39][84] - The "anti - involution" effect will determine the amplitude of the curve steepening. There may be an interdependent cycle relationship among real estate prosperity, "anti - involution," and nominal economic growth, and the conditions for curve steepening are accumulating [3][52][84] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Term Structure Theory Overview - The theoretical hypotheses about the interest rate term structure mainly include the liquidity preference theory, rational expectations theory, market segmentation theory, and term preference theory. The liquidity preference theory can explain why the yield curve slopes upward to the right under normal conditions, the rational expectations theory can explain the common change patterns of the yield curve, the market segmentation theory can explain various yield curve shapes, and the term preference theory combines the rational expectations theory and the market segmentation theory [10][11][12] 2. Historical Experience of Interest Rate Term Structures in the US and Japan - The historical experience of the US Treasury yield curve change basically conforms to the theoretical predictions, mainly switching between "bull steepening" and "bear flattening." Special phenomena include the "Greenspan Conundrum" and the "zero - interest - rate" stage from 2009 - 2015. The Japanese Treasury yield curve also had a long - term low short - end yield stage, and the long - end yield dominated the curve shape [14][17][18] 3. Changes in China's Interest Rate Term Structure 3.1 Recent Changes in China's Interest Rate Term Structure - Since the end of 2024, China's Treasury yield curve has experienced a rare "bull flattening," which may be related to the flattening of long - term inflation expectations and the term preferences of institutional investors [22][25] 3.2 China's Interest Rate Term Structure from a Rational Expectations Perspective - China's current economic growth is stronger than that of the US and Japan during their "zero - interest - rate" periods, so the short - term interest rate floor is higher. The long - end yield may be affected by the flattening of inflation expectations [26][27] 3.3 China's Interest Rate Term Structure from a Term Preference Perspective - The flattening of China's interest rate term structure is related to the term preferences of institutional investors such as insurance and banks. Insurance institutions' increasing bond - holding share and commercial banks' preference for long - term bonds due to factors like net interest margin and mortgage rates have contributed to this [31][33][34] 4. Analysis of China's Interest Rate Term Structure Change Patterns - Currently, it is recommended to analyze the pricing of long - and short - end yields separately. The short - end yield depends on policy expectations, and the long - end yield depends on the real estate cycle [39][41][45] 5. "Anti - Involution" and Interest Rate Term Structure 5.1 Prospects for Changes in China's Interest Rate Term Structure - It is difficult for China's interest rate term structure to further flatten. The bank system may lack the willingness to further lower long - end yields. The term structure's trend towards "bull steepening" or "bear steepening" requires fundamental conditions [49][50][51] 5.2 "Anti - Involution" and Interest Rate Term Structure Steepening - As of July 2025, China's PPI has been declining year - on - year for 34 months, and the CPI has stabilized. "Anti - involution" drives price adjustment expectations, but the realization of these expectations requires a suitable liquidity environment. The effect of "anti - involution" may be closely related to foreign trade and the real estate sector [52][54][59] 5.3 Nominal Economic Growth, "Anti - Involution," and Real Estate Prosperity - There may be an interdependent cycle relationship among real estate prosperity, "anti - involution," and nominal economic growth. The conditions for curve steepening are accumulating, including improved monetary activity, the stabilization of real estate prosperity, and the reduced need for further interest rate cuts in the short term [72][74][76] 6. Conclusion and Outlook - The determination of the interest rate term structure is the result of the combined effects of liquidity preference, rational expectations, and term preference. The current flat state of China's interest rate term structure has rationality and inertia, but it is difficult to further flatten, and a slow steepening may occur in the next stage [83][84][85]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20250821 当 前（ 2025 年 8 月 21 日 ）中 银多 策略行 业配置 系统 仓位 ： 电 子 （11.2%）、非银行金融（9.0%）、综合（8.7%）、有色金属（7.5%）、 电力及公用事业（7.0%）、银行（6.8%）、综合金融（4.5%）、传媒 （4.3%）、汽车（4.3%）、基础化工（4.3%）、通信（3.4%）、机械 （3.4%）、电力设备及新能源（3.2%）、家电（3.0%）、农林牧渔 （2.8%）、纺织服装（2.7%）、石油石化（2.7%）、煤炭（2.7%）、食 品 饮 料 （ 2.7% ） 、 钢 铁 （ 2.7% ） 、 计 算 机 （ 1.6% ） 、 国 防 军 工 （1.5%）。 S1 行业盈利景气度追踪策略（周度）较基准超额收益为 3.3% S2 未证伪情绪跟踪策略（周度）超额收益为 4.4% S6 财报因子失效反转策略（月度）超额收益为-1.9% 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业 ...