Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [52]. Core Insights - The social services sector has seen a 5.39% increase in the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [1][12]. - The summer travel season has begun, with a slight decrease in air travel costs year-on-year, suggesting positive operational performance for travel-related companies during the peak season [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance in the last two weeks (June 23 - July 4, 2025) shows a 5.39% increase, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [12]. - The sub-sectors within social services, including education (+11.42%) and professional services (+4.51%), all experienced growth [16]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The civil aviation sector is expected to handle 150 million passengers during the summer travel period, with a daily average of over 2.4 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][4]. - The "Su Super" sports events have significantly boosted local consumption, with hotel occupancy rates increasing by 20%-30% and related retail spending rising by 15%-25% [1][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4]. - The recovery of business travel and increased market share for hotel brands such as Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4]. 4. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel has largely recovered post-pandemic, with international travel policies gradually easing, indicating a positive trend for the travel industry [39][40].

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for an "anti-involution" trend in various industries, which is expected to improve the nominal economic growth rate that has been relatively weak [6][7] - The report indicates that the current economic environment is similar to the period from 2013 to 2015, suggesting that supply-side reforms could stabilize the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the second half of the year [7] Market Update - The report notes that as of July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.70% to 10435.51 [3] - The CSI 300 Index also saw a decline of 0.43%, closing at 3965.17 [3] Industry Performance - The report provides a summary of industry performance, with the comprehensive index showing an increase of 2.57%. In contrast, the coal industry experienced a decline of 2.04% [4] - Other sectors such as public utilities and pharmaceuticals also saw slight declines of 1.87% and 0.97%, respectively [4] Key Focus Areas - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" actions taken by companies in sectors like solar energy and automotive are expected to create short-term positive factors for domestic demand [7] - It is noted that the current market conditions, characterized by ample liquidity, may lead to a rotation of funds among various sectors, particularly benefiting cyclical stocks [7] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that since October 2022, the PPI has been below zero for 32 consecutive months, indicating a prolonged period of weak pricing [6] - The report draws parallels to the supply-side reforms that began in 2016, which helped to lift the PPI out of a weak pricing environment [6]

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银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 强于大市 银行业周报 银行指数上行创新高 按申万一级行业分类标准，银行板块本周上涨 3.77%，上周上涨 0.67%，银 行板块涨跌幅由高到低排名 3/31，较上周排名上升 23 位。个股方面 A 股 42 家银行全数上涨。拉长时间来看，年初至今银行板块涨幅 17.77%，在全行业 中排名第 2，红利仍然是银行的主线，关注银行股投资价值，建议关注招商 银行、农业银行、江苏银行。 银行板块和个股表现 本周 A 股银行指数上行，个股方面 A 股 42 家银行全数上涨。按类型看， 截至本周五，国有行平均涨幅为 2.81%，平均 P/B 为 0.73X；股份行平均 涨幅为 5.41%，平均 P/B 为 0.63X；城商行平均涨幅为 3.30%，平均 P/B 为 0.73X；农商行本周平均涨幅 2.48%，平均 P/B 为 0.68X。拉长时间线 看，国有行在近一个月中涨幅为 6.95%；股份行近一个月涨幅为 11.63%； 城商行近一个月涨幅为 7.34%；农商行近一个月涨幅为 4.82%。 本周 15 只在港股上市的 A 股银行 H 股股价有 9 ...

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Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...