房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 26 周周报（2025 年 6 月 21 日-2025 年 6 月 27 日） 本周新房成交同比降幅扩大；将消费品以旧换新与城市更新 行动有机结合 新房成交面积环比涨幅扩大，同比降幅扩大。二手房成交面积环比由正转负，同比降幅收窄。 新房库存面积与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 政策 投资建议： 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 相关研究报告 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu @bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 新房成交面积环比涨幅扩大，同比降幅扩大。40 个城市新房成交面积为 336.6 万平，环比 上升 37.0%，同比下降 25.7%，同比降幅较上周扩大了 15.5 个百分点。一、二、三四线 ...

银行板块和个股表现 本周 A 股银行指数上行，个股方面 A 股 42 家银行有 22 家上涨。按类型 看，截至本周五，国有行平均涨幅为 0.75%，平均 P/B 为 0.71X；股份行 平均涨幅为 1.09%，平均 P/B 为 0.60X；城商行平均涨幅为 0.43%，平均 P/B 为 0.71X；农商行本周平均涨幅-1.16%，平均 P/B 为 0.66X。拉长时 间线看，国有大行在近一个月中涨幅为 4.37%；股份行近一个月涨幅为 8.31%；城商行近一个月涨幅为 4.86%；农商行近一个月涨幅为 5.66%。 本周 15 只在港股上市的 A 股银行 H 股股价有 12 只上涨。AH 股溢价率 最高的为郑州银行（89.29%），唯一溢价率为负的银行为招商银行 （-8.16%）。 银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 强于大市 银行业周报 关注银行长期投资价值 按申万一级行业分类标准，银行板块本周上涨 0.67%，上周上涨 2.63%，银 行板块涨跌幅由高到低排名 26/31，较上周排名下降 25 位。个股方面 A 股 42 家银行有 22 家上涨。本周五银行股整体回调，但拉长 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日 一季度对外经济部门体检 报告 经常项目顺差扩大，内资外流增加，民间对外净 头寸首次转正 2025 年一季度，我国国际收支延续经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的自主平衡 格局，交易引起的外汇储备资产减少但外汇储备余额增加，民间部门首次转 为对外净资产。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师: 管涛 (8610)66229136 tao.guan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520100001 证券分析师: 刘立品 (8610)66229236 lipin.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521080001 经常项目顺差同比扩大，占 GDP 比重继续处于国际认可的合理范围以 内。特朗普关税政策冲击下，我国外贸展现出较强韧性，货物贸易顺差 继续处于历史高位。 资本项目（含净误差与遗漏）逆差连续第四个季度扩大，线上资本项目 逆差处于历史次高，远大于上年同期逆差，主要是因为内资外流增加， 其中对外债务类和股权类投资净流出同比齐增，分别反映了中美 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 中东局势缓和油轮运价回调，最新发布亮相的 朱雀 eVTOL 航 程达 600 公里 航运方面，中东局势有所缓和油轮运价回调，集运美线下跌欧线上涨。航空 方面，暑运期间海航日均计划航班量近 2500 班，7 月国内机票预订量 1790 万张。低空及物流方面，最新发布亮相的朱雀 eVTOL 航 程达 600 公里，1 至 5 月国家铁路发送货物同比增长 3.1%。 ◼ 核心观点： ①中东局势有所缓和油轮运价回调，集运美线下跌欧线上涨。根据上海 航交所数据，本周 VLCC 市场上半周运价延续上周末的强势上行趋势， 以色列与伊朗冲突升级所引发的地缘政治不确定性成为上涨的核心驱动 因素。下半周随着以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，中东局势出现明显缓 和，市场热度逐步降温，市场也逐步回归供需基本面，当前整体可用运 力充沛，成交运价大幅回调。周四，中东湾拉斯坦努拉至宁波 27 万吨 级船运价（CT1）报 WS59.88，较 6 月 19 日下跌 14.31%。集运方面， 欧线运输需求表现良好，推动即期市场订舱价格上涨。6 月 27 ...

相关研究报告 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 《策略周报》20250629 《1-5 月工企利润数据点评》20250629 《稳定币、"影子联储主席"与避险资产》 20250629 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 2025 年中期策略报告 多重角力下的突围选择 在科技重估、关税冲击、政策储备 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the total profit of industrial enterprises in China, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% for the first five months of 2025, indicating a slowdown in industrial profitability [6][8] - High-tech manufacturing continues to support the profitability of industrial enterprises, suggesting a potential area for investment [6][7] - The report notes that while operating income for industrial enterprises grew by 2.7%, the growth rate has narrowed, indicating cost pressures that may affect profitability [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - The total profit of industrial enterprises reached 27,204.3 billion yuan in the first five months, with a significant drop in May, where profits fell by 9.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The operating income for industrial enterprises showed a slight increase, with a profit margin of 5.0%, which is a marginal improvement from the previous month [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for demand-side policies to stimulate growth, particularly in the real estate sector, which remains a significant shortfall in domestic demand [7][8] Industry Performance - The report provides a snapshot of various industry performances, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing a positive growth of 2.17%, while the banking sector experienced a decline of 2.95% [5] - The overall industrial production activity remains active, with an industrial added value growth of 6.3% year-on-year, although price pressures persist due to weak demand [7][8] - The report indicates that the prices of key commodities such as crude oil and iron ore have decreased, impacting the profitability of domestic industrial enterprises [8]

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2025 年 6 月 30 日 强于大市 资产证券化系列报告一 我国资产支持证券存量规模超 3 万亿元；公募 REITs 从破冰到常态化发行，未来空间可期 核心观点 投资建议： 风险提示： 政策风险：资产证券化产品相关政策超预期收紧，REITs 支持政策推进力度不及预期； REITs 相关租赁市场需求变化风险：市场波动下，租赁需求超预期下行，租金水平波动， 影响项目收入，同时面临租金定价调整风险；ABS 违约风险与流动性风险。 相关研究报告 《房地产行业 2023 年度策略——弩箭已离 弦，能否冰解的破？》（2022/12/18） 《中国真实住房需求还有多少？（2022 版）》 (2022/8/3) 《凡益之道，与时偕行——关于短期博弈与 长期格局的思考》(2022/6/15) 《从历史复盘中探讨本轮地产调控放松的最 佳路径与当前房企的生存法则》(2022/3/31) 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 近年来，随着资产支持证券产品发行规模的攀升，市场关注度越来越高，由于不动产既 具有可租赁的天然属性，能够形成长期稳定的现 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The company, Suochen Technology, is a leading domestic CAE software enterprise, deeply engaged in the defense and military sectors while continuously expanding into the civilian market. The launch of its physical AI platform is expected to empower the industrial and manufacturing sectors, creating new growth opportunities [1][5][8]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 36.3%, with a 12-month performance of 47.2% [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.1 billion, 6.9 billion, and 9.2 billion RMB, respectively. Net profit for the same period is expected to be 0.88 billion, 1.16 billion, and 1.58 billion RMB, with EPS of 0.99, 1.30, and 1.78 RMB, respectively. The PE ratios are projected to be 72.3, 55.2, and 40.4 times [5][7]. Company Overview - Suochen Technology focuses on the research, development, and sales of CAE software, with a strong emphasis on fluid, structural, and electromagnetic algorithms. The company has established a solid reputation in the defense sector and is expanding into civilian markets, aiming to become a "Chinese Dassault" [8][16]. Market Position - The domestic CAE market is currently dominated by foreign companies, with Ansys, Siemens, and Dassault Systems holding nearly 50% of the market share. However, domestic companies are gradually increasing their market presence, with a reported 16.2% market share for domestic CAE software in 2022, up from 7% in 2016 [50][61]. Product Development - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix, with its engineering simulation software contributing over 50% of revenue and more than 70% of gross profit from 2019 to 2024. The physical AI platform launched in March 2025 is designed to enhance simulation efficiency and accuracy, targeting commercial applications [8][26][50].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for June include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to export dynamics, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [4][11] - The report suggests a mid-to-long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 29, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemicals sector is 22.34, at the 63.93 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.83, at the 14.09 percentile historically. For the oil and petrochemical sector, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.98, at the 15.69 percentile historically, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.19, at the 2.39 percentile historically [4][11] Price Changes - In the week of June 23-29, 38 chemical products saw price increases, 38 saw decreases, and 24 remained stable. The average price of WTI crude oil fell by 12.56% to $65.52 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 12.00% to $67.77 per barrel. The average price of MDI decreased by 1.59% to 15,500 CNY/ton, while H acid increased by 5.39% to 44,000 CNY/ton [10][28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and those in high-growth sectors such as oil and gas, electronic materials, and new energy materials. Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials sector [4][11]

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 强于大市 多因素催化下，网络安全景 气度有望提升 计算机行业"一周解码" 本周（6.23-6.28）网络安全指数（884133.WI）和数据安全指数（8841651WI） 上涨较多。我们认为主要催化因素包括：跨境支付通正式上线；央行将制定 新阶段金融科技发展规划，并开展数据要素试点；国泰君安获虚拟资产交易 牌，虚拟资产交易有望扩容，催生加密安全技术需求。 支撑评级的要点 (1)科大讯飞：在 2025 全球元宇宙大会上，科大讯飞副总裁于亮介绍了公 司在人工智能领域的最新成果，并表示正探索利用 AI 技术提升元宇宙交 互体验，如通过语音合成等技术让虚拟人更智能。 (2)新北洋：公告拟使用自有资金 5000 万元设立全资子公司新疆北洋海丝 数字科技有限公司，以满足业务发展和提升运营效率。 投资建议 建议关注网络安全、跨境支付等相关企业，包括安恒信息、恒宝股份、 吉大正元、南天信息等。 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报告 《计算机行业"一周解码"》20250623 《计算机行业"一周解 ...