Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [22]. Core Insights - The domestic tourism market remains robust, with a significant increase in both domestic and outbound travel during the New Year holiday. The upcoming Spring Festival, which has a longer holiday duration, is expected to further enhance travel activity [3][15]. - The report highlights strong performance in the duty-free market, particularly in Hainan, driven by favorable policies and promotional activities, leading to a substantial increase in sales [11][15]. - Key recommended companies include Lingnan Holdings, Tongcheng Travel, Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and China Duty Free Group, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [3][15]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made, a 5.2% increase compared to the previous year, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% [6][8]. - The average spending per trip was 597.11 yuan, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year [6]. - The total inter-regional passenger flow was estimated at 590 million, with a daily average of 19.8 million, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [7][8]. Duty-Free Market - Hainan received 2.1716 million tourists during the New Year holiday, a 25.2% increase year-on-year, with total tourism spending of 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [11]. - Duty-free sales saw a remarkable performance, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase, and shopping expenditure reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% year-on-year [12][11]. Cross-Border Travel - A total of 6.615 million people crossed borders during the New Year holiday, with a daily average of 2.205 million, representing a 28.6% increase year-on-year [13]. - Outbound travel remains popular, particularly to short-distance destinations like South Korea and Vietnam, while inbound travel is seeing a shift towards less conventional cities [14][13].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in the electronic materials sector driven by rapid downstream development, technological advancements, and domestic substitution [3][5] - The semiconductor materials market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted sales revenue of USD 67.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [7][34] - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investments in electronic materials [3][5] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is expected to exceed USD 87 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% from 2024 to 2029 [7][34] - China's semiconductor materials domestic substitution rate is currently around 15%, with significant reliance on imports for high-end materials [38][42] - Key materials such as CMP polishing materials, photoresists, and electronic specialty gases are seeing increased domestic production efforts, which are expected to enhance the domestic substitution rate [38][42] PCB Materials - The PCB industry is evolving towards high-frequency and high-speed applications, with increasing demand for electronic resins and fabrics [7][34] - The global market for electronic resins and fabrics used in PCB production is estimated at approximately USD 33.02 billion and USD 24.13 billion, respectively, in 2023 [7][34] - The transition to high-frequency and high-speed PCBs is driven by advancements in 5G technology and the rapid growth of data centers and cloud computing [7][34] OLED Materials - The demand for OLED materials is expected to grow rapidly due to increasing terminal application needs and the acceleration of high-generation line capacity release [7][34] - The global OLED display materials market is projected to reach USD 2.44 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.8% expected from 2025 to 2031 [7][34] - Domestic OLED organic materials currently have a low substitution rate of around 12%, indicating significant growth potential as local manufacturers expand their capabilities [7][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies benefiting from the semiconductor market recovery, such as Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics, among others [5][34] - For AI server demand, companies like Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology are highlighted as key players in the electronic resin market [5][34] - In the OLED sector, companies like Lite-On Optoelectronics and Wanrun Co., Ltd. are recommended due to their strong market positions [5][34] Industry Performance - The semiconductor materials index has shown a cumulative increase of 37.87% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18.72 percentage points [26] - The electronic chemicals index has increased by 54.98% in the same period, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 35.83 percentage points [26] - Overall, the electronic materials industry is experiencing stable growth, with significant improvements in revenue and profitability metrics [16][26]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in crude oil shipping rates, while long-distance shipping rates have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) fell by 40.6% to 1354.35 points as of December 25, 2025. Conversely, shipping rates for routes to Europe and the US have risen, with rates for Shanghai to Europe increasing by 10.2% to $1690 per TEU, and rates to the US West and East coasts rising by 9.8% and 6.6% respectively [3][13] - The report notes that Peak Flying's Kai Rui Ou eVTOL successfully completed the first ton-level unmanned cross-strait flight over the Qiongzhou Strait, demonstrating the feasibility of low-altitude transportation. Additionally, China National Airlines plans to purchase 60 Airbus A320NEO aircraft, with a total list price of approximately $9.53 billion, scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2032 [3][14][16] - JD.com has launched its first campus "Smart Wolf" front warehouse at Guangdong Industry and Commerce Vocational Technical University, contributing to a 5.0% year-on-year growth in national social logistics total, amounting to 331.2 trillion yuan for the first 11 months of 2025 [3][22][23] Summary by Sections Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 5821.00 points, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.6% [25] - Domestic cargo flight operations saw a year-on-year decline of 3.24% in December 2025, while international flights increased by 15.99% [26] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1656.32 points, with a week-on-week increase of 6.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.68% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics. It also highlights opportunities in low-altitude economy trends and road-rail investment opportunities [4][5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) by 2.8% year-to-date, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Commodity prices show mixed performance, with gold increasing by 1.0% year-to-date, while Brent crude oil has decreased by 0.5% [3] - Key macroeconomic indicators from the US show a stable personal income growth of 0.4% month-on-month, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.6% [4] Index Performance - The HSI closed at 26,338, reflecting a 2.8% increase for the day and year-to-date [2] - The HSCEI and MSCI HK also showed positive movements, increasing by 2.9% and 2.4% respectively [2] - In contrast, the FTSE China A50 and CSI 300 experienced slight declines of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent crude oil is priced at US$61 per barrel, down 0.4% for the day and 0.5% year-to-date [3] - Gold is trading at US$4,365 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3] - Copper and aluminum prices have shown slight increases, with copper at US$12,470 per ton and aluminum at US$2,991 per ton [3] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - The China PMI Services index reported at 52.1, indicating expansion in the services sector [4] - The US PCE Price Index year-on-year stands at 2.8%, reflecting stable inflation [4] - The ISM Manufacturing index is slightly below consensus at 48.2, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] Key Events - Upcoming corporate access events include meetings with key figures in the consumer sector scheduled for January [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - New home transaction area has seen a slight month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 21.5% [6] - The transaction area for second-hand homes has turned negative month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9%, although the decline has also narrowed compared to the previous week [6] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.2 months, which is a decrease of 1.6 months month-on-month but an increase of 4.3 months year-on-year [6] - The land market has seen a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in price, with a total land transaction area of 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year, while the average floor price has increased by 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [6] - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector has decreased significantly, with a total issuance of 1.96 billion yuan, down 68.5% month-on-month and 20.2% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities is 281.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [17][26] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities is 11,398 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [42][43] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities is 126.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [49][57] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities is 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year [63][64] - The total land transaction price is 111.36 billion yuan, down 14.1% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [68][89] - The average floor price of land is 2,545.5 yuan per square meter, up 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [63][68] 3. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has announced a new policy reducing the value-added tax rate on personal sales of housing from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026 [2][97] - The central bank has indicated a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and improving financial conditions [97]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [30]. Core Insights - Meta's acquisition of Manus marks a new phase in AI application commercialization, shifting the focus from "model parameter competition" to "application implementation" [3][10]. - The Ministry of Education's AI education initiative outlines a vision for the future of education, emphasizing the integration of AI into educational practices and the development of a digital education framework [14][15]. Summary by Sections Meta's Acquisition of Manus - Meta completed the acquisition of AI application developer Manus for several billion dollars, which is considered its third-largest acquisition to date [3][10]. - This acquisition signifies a turning point in the AI industry, indicating a potential wave of mergers and acquisitions in the AI agent sector [11][12]. - The acquisition is expected to clarify the AI industry chain's division of labor, establishing a three-tier structure: foundational large models, mid-tier intelligent agent technologies, and upper-tier vertical application scenarios [11][12]. AI Education Initiatives - The Ministry of Education plans to further integrate AI into education, with policies expected to be released in 2026 to support this initiative [14][15]. - The "Four Futures" concept was introduced, focusing on future teachers, classrooms, schools, and learning centers, aiming to enhance personalized education through AI [14][15]. - The Ministry has also launched various guidelines and resources to assist schools in implementing AI effectively [14][15].

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 1 月 5 日 我们认为伴随 AI驱动 DRAM 需求提振及国产 DRAM 厂商进展融资进程 提速，国内 DRAM 全产业链有望实现加速成长，建议关注如下：【设备】： 中微公司、拓荆科技、北方华创、迈为股份、精智达、中科飞测、盛美 上海；【材料】：深南电路、华海诚科、联瑞新材、雅克科技、兴福电 子；【CBA DRAM CMOS】：晶合集成；【封测】汇成股份、深科技； 【利基 DRAM 设计】兆易创新、北京君正。 强于大市 存储行业点评 长鑫科技披露招股书，兆易创新登陆 H 股在即， 国产 DRAM 供应链再提速 2025 年 12 月 30 日晚，长鑫科技首次披露招股说明书，同时，兆易创新公 告港股 IPO 最新进度。我们认为伴随 AI 驱动 DRAM 需求提振及国产 DRAM 厂商融资进程提速，产业链有望实现加速成长，给予行业 强于大市 的评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 评级面临的主要风险 IPO 进度不及预期、产能扩张爬坡不及预期、AI 等领域需求不及预期、 新技术突破不及预期、存储市场周期波动。 相关研究报告 《电子行业 2026 年年度策略》202 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated and declined. The RMB exchange rate resumed the "three - price" unity, and the market did not accumulate strong exchange - rate appreciation expectations. The RMB led the rise among major non - U.S. currencies, driving the multilateral exchange - rate index to rebound [3]. - The cross - border capital inflow scale narrowed month - on - month. Goods trade and securities investment were the main contributors. The upward swap points of the U.S. dollar against the onshore RMB significantly compressed the foreign capital arbitrage space, and the balance of RMB bonds held by foreign investors decreased for the seventh consecutive month. Foreign investors remained cautious about the stock market but were more confident about its prospects [3]. - Bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange remained basically stable. The willingness of market entities to settle foreign exchange weakened, and the balance of domestic foreign - exchange deposits of financial institutions hit a record high. The recent acceleration of RMB appreciation may lead to exchange losses for domestic investors holding U.S. dollar deposits, inducing relevant entities to accelerate foreign - exchange settlement [3]. - A decline in the real effective exchange rate does not mean the undervaluation of the domestic currency. The weakening of China's real exchange rate is mainly due to strong domestic supply, weak demand, and low price trends. Restoring internal economic balance is the fundamental measure to prevent the intensification of external imbalances, and a significant appreciation of the RMB should not be used as a policy tool [3] Summary by Related Content 1. RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In November, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations fluctuated greatly. The U.S. dollar index ended its rebound in the previous month, fluctuated between 99 and 100, and fell 0.3% to 99.4 for the whole month. The RMB exchange rate continued its catch - up appreciation. The central parity rate gradually appreciated, accumulating an appreciation of 91 basis points to 7.0789 against the U.S. dollar; the onshore spot exchange rate appreciated faster, accumulating an appreciation of 341 basis points to 7.0794 against the U.S. dollar, reaching a new high since mid - October 2024; the offshore exchange rate appreciated 511 basis points to 7.0713 compared with the end of the previous month. The RMB exchange rate resumed the "three - price" unity, indicating that market expectations remained basically stable [4]. - The average spot exchange rate with a 3 - month lag in November appreciated for the ninth consecutive month, with a gain of 0.9%, a new high in the past four months; the average spot exchange rate with a 5 - month lag appreciated for the seventh consecutive month, and the appreciation rate exceeded 1%, which might increase the negative impact on the financial situation of export enterprises. However, under the goal of exchange - rate stability, the change range of the spot exchange rate in the past three years has significantly narrowed, and the overall impact on the financial situation of export enterprises is limited. In the first 11 months of 2025, the scale of enterprises using foreign - exchange derivatives such as forwards, swaps, and options to manage exchange - rate risks reached 1.75 trillion U.S. dollars, the hedging ratio increased by 3.4 percentage points to 30.2% compared with the previous year, and the proportion of RMB settlement in goods trade was nearly 30%, both reaching record highs, which helped foreign - trade enterprises avoid exchange - rate risks [5]. - In November, the RMB led the rise among major non - U.S. currencies. The RMB multilateral exchange - rate index continued its overall upward trend since July, but the month - on - month increase narrowed. The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index, the RMB exchange - rate index referenced to the BIS currency basket, and the RMB exchange - rate index referenced to the SDR currency basket rose 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.2% respectively, lower than the previous month's increases of 0.9%, 1.2%, and 1.1%. Affected by the rebound of the nominal effective exchange - rate index, the real effective exchange - rate index of the RMB released by the BIS rebounded for the fifth consecutive month, and the increase expanded to 0.8%, a new high in the past five months. The cumulative decline in the first 11 months narrowed from 5.8% in the first half of the year to 3.2% [6] 2. Cross - border Capital Flows - In November, the surplus of banks' foreign - exchange receipts and payments on behalf of customers continued from the previous month, but the surplus scale dropped sharply from 51.1 billion U.S. dollars in the previous month to 17.8 billion U.S. dollars, lower than the average level of 24 billion U.S. dollars in the previous two months. In terms of currency, the RMB's foreign - exchange receipts and payments changed from a surplus of 1.6 billion U.S. dollars in the previous month to a deficit of 29 billion U.S. dollars, contributing 91% of the month - on - month decline in the surplus of banks' foreign - exchange receipts and payments on behalf of customers. The surplus of foreign - currency foreign - exchange receipts and payments was basically stable, only falling 2.9 billion U.S. dollars month - on - month to 46.7 billion U.S. dollars [14]. - In terms of items, the surplus of foreign - exchange receipts and payments in goods trade decreased by 17.5 billion U.S. dollars month - on - month to 72.7 billion U.S. dollars, but it was still at a historical high and was the main channel for cross - border capital inflow; the foreign - exchange receipts and payments in securities investment had a deficit for the sixth consecutive month, and the deficit scale increased by 14.6 billion U.S. dollars month - on - month to 34.6 billion U.S. dollars. Goods trade and securities investment contributed 52% and 44% respectively to the month - on - month decline in the surplus of banks' foreign - exchange receipts and payments on behalf of customers [14]. - In November, in the goods - trade sector, the trade surplus in customs statistics increased by 21.6 billion U.S. dollars month - on - month to 111.7 billion U.S. dollars, the third - highest in history, and the gap with the comparable foreign - exchange receipts and payments surplus widened to + 38.1 billion U.S. dollars. However, from the perspective of the 12 - month moving average, since the second half of 2024, with the alleviation of the RMB depreciation pressure, the situation of "surplus but no corresponding income" in goods trade has generally improved [15]. - In November, in the securities - investment sector, the activity of cross - border capital increased. The scale of foreign - exchange receipts and payments of banks on behalf of customers increased by 33.8 billion and 48.3 billion U.S. dollars month - on - month to 232 billion and 266.6 billion U.S. dollars respectively, both at historical highs. However, the balance of RMB bonds held by foreign investors continued to decrease. At the end of November, the balance of domestic RMB bonds held by overseas institutions was 3.61 trillion yuan, having decreased for the seventh consecutive month, and decreased by 116.7 billion yuan compared with the end of the previous month, returning to the scale of over 100 billion yuan after three months. The main reason was that the recent upward swap points of the U.S. dollar against the onshore RMB significantly compressed the foreign - capital arbitrage space [20]. - According to IIF data, in November, foreign capital had a net outflow of 18.9 billion U.S. dollars from emerging - market stock markets, the second - largest net outflow this year after March. This was mainly because the stock - market funds of emerging markets other than China changed from a net inflow in the previous two months to a net outflow of 12.1 billion U.S. dollars, and foreign capital had a net outflow of 6.9 billion U.S. dollars from the Chinese stock market for the third consecutive month, indicating that foreign investors remained cautious about the Chinese stock market. However, in 2025, the Chinese stock market performed well. The MSCI China Index had a cumulative increase of nearly 22%, outperforming the overall performance of global stock markets. Recently, many international institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate, reflecting that foreign investors are more confident about China's economic prospects and RMB assets. Many foreign - funded institutions such as BlackRock said that more funds may flow into the Chinese market in the next year [20][21] 3. Bank Settlement and Sales of Foreign Exchange - In November, the on - and off - forward (including options) settlement and sales of foreign exchange by banks (hereinafter referred to as bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange) had a surplus for the ninth consecutive month. The surplus scale was 29.7 billion U.S. dollars, basically the same as the previous month, only increasing by 2.4 billion U.S. dollars, but far lower than the surplus of 73.4 billion U.S. dollars in September. Both spot transactions and derivatives transactions remained basically stable. The net settlement of foreign exchange in forwards and options increased by 4.5 billion U.S. dollars month - on - month, the deficit of banks' own settlement and sales of foreign exchange decreased by 3 billion U.S. dollars, and the surplus of banks' settlement and sales of foreign exchange on behalf of customers decreased by 5 billion U.S. dollars [28]. - In November, after excluding the forward performance amount, the settlement - rate of foreign exchange receipts and the purchase - rate of foreign exchange payments decreased by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively month - on - month. This shows that enterprises may avoid exchange - rate risks through natural hedging rather than settlement and sales of foreign exchange. In the context of the accelerating appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the month - on - month decline of the settlement - rate of foreign exchange receipts was greater than that of the purchase - rate of foreign exchange payments, and the former dropped to 52.0%, the lowest since April, reflecting the normal operation of the exchange - rate leverage adjustment mechanism and indicating that market entities did not accumulate exchange - rate appreciation expectations [28]. - In the goods - trade sector, the settlement - rate of enterprise income increased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the purchase - rate of enterprise expenditures decreased by 1.1 percentage points. Therefore, the gap between the surplus of foreign - exchange receipts and payments in goods trade and the settlement and sales of foreign exchange narrowed from the historical high of 52.4 billion U.S. dollars in the previous month to 36.8 billion U.S. dollars. However, from the perspective of the 12 - month moving average, since the second half of 2024, even though the scale of goods exports has maintained rapid growth and the collection of export enterprises has accelerated, due to the continuous low settlement - rate of enterprises, the gap between the scale of goods - trade settlement of foreign exchange and foreign - exchange income has continued to expand, that is, the funds of enterprises waiting to be settled have increased. As of the end of November, the balance of domestic foreign - exchange deposits of financial institutions rose to 879.4 billion U.S. dollars, and the balance of domestic foreign - exchange deposits of non - financial enterprises was 561.8 billion U.S. dollars, both hitting record highs. With the recent acceleration of RMB appreciation, there is a need to be vigilant that the strengthening of appreciation expectations may induce market entities to accelerate foreign - exchange settlement and promote further appreciation of the RMB exchange rate [32] 4. Current Special Topic: A Decline in the Real Effective Exchange Rate Does Not Mean the Undervaluation of the Domestic Currency - In the first 11 months of 2025, the RMB real effective exchange - rate index decreased by 3.2% cumulatively, and the scale of China's goods - trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion U.S. dollars, which attracted international attention to China's exchange - rate policy. Many foreign - funded institutions believed that the RMB exchange rate was undervalued and called for a significant appreciation of the RMB [40]. - The decline of the RMB real effective exchange - rate index started in April 2022 and reached a new low of 86.2 in June 2025 since December 2011. The change in the real effective exchange rate can be decomposed into the change in the nominal effective exchange rate and the consumer price index. From April 2022 to November 2025, the RMB real effective exchange - rate index decreased by 16.7% cumulatively, while the RMB nominal effective exchange - rate index only decreased by 5.1%, indicating that China's lower inflation level than its trading partners was the main reason for the weakening of the RMB real exchange rate. In contrast, the decline of the Japanese yen's real effective exchange - rate index started in June 2020, and as of November 2025, it had decreased by 32.9% cumulatively, and the nominal effective exchange - rate index had decreased by 30.2% cumulatively, which was the main reason for the weakening of the real exchange rate [40]. - According to BIS data, the top five weighted currencies in the RMB effective exchange - rate index are the euro, the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the South Korean won, and the New Taiwan dollar. The top five weighted currencies in the Japanese yen effective exchange - rate index are the RMB, the U.S. dollar, the euro, the South Korean won, and the New Taiwan dollar. In recent years, the RMB nominal effective exchange - rate index has remained stable because the bilateral exchange rates of the RMB against major currencies have both risen and fallen, while the significant decline of the Japanese yen nominal effective exchange - rate index is because the exchange rates of the Japanese yen against major currencies have all weakened significantly [41]. - Judging whether the exchange rate is overvalued or undervalued is relative to the equilibrium exchange rate, not simply referring to historical values. The weakening of the RMB real exchange rate is mainly due to strong domestic supply, weak demand, and low prices. Promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices and restoring internal economic balance are the fundamental measures to prevent the intensification of external imbalances. In the past, China's current - account surplus decreased after a series of policies, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate was more of a result of economic re - balancing rather than a tool. Currently, guiding the RMB to appreciate against the U.S. dollar to "reduce the surplus and promote balance" may intensify the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China and strengthen the downward pressure on prices [42]. - Recently, the IMF completed its Article IV consultation with China in 2025. The IMF Managing Director said that China's lower inflation rate than its trading partners led to a significant depreciation of the real exchange rate, and suggested that China implement more expansionary macroeconomic policies and necessary reforms, which would help promote the appreciation of the real exchange rate, but did not explicitly recommend that China take measures to push up the RMB exchange rate, hoping to see a market - based exchange rate reflecting the fundamentals. That is, the IMF did not pressure the RMB to appreciate but suggested solving economic imbalances from the inside out [43]. - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 emphasized "maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level" for the fourth consecutive year, which was the first time in history. Combining with the minutes of the fourth - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, the specific statement on exchange - rate stability in the fourth - quarter regular meeting of 2025 changed, deleting some previous statements. This was mainly due to the overall easing of the RMB depreciation pressure in 2025 and the obvious improvement of the domestic and foreign - exchange market supply and demand situation. However, since there are still many uncertainties in the external environment, the fourth - quarter regular meeting reiterated "enhancing the resilience of the foreign - exchange market", "stabilizing market expectations", and "preventing exchange - rate overshooting risks", indicating that the exchange - rate policy goal in 2026 is still to prevent excessive appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and provide a relatively stable monetary environment for domestic economic operations [44]

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Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.59% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.06% [1][11] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity futures, with coking coal futures down by 0.76% and iron ore futures up by 2.00% [1][11] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures dropped by 0.36% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is equities > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a positive outlook on A-shares and stable bond yields [2][4] - The report suggests that the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status is weakening, prompting international capital to seek alternatives, with RMB assets being a top choice due to their stability and growth potential [2][4] - The report anticipates that commodity prices will be influenced by supply pressures in oil and demand dynamics in cyclical goods, while agricultural products will be affected by supply factors [2][4] Key Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, indicating a slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, returning to the expansion zone [18] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress will convene on March 4, 2026, which may influence economic policies [18][19] Market Performance Insights - The report details a significant decline in the real estate market, with a notable drop in transaction volumes for new homes in major cities, indicating potential market stabilization due to recent policy changes [36][41] - The automotive sector is experiencing a downturn, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showing negative growth for four consecutive weeks [36][41] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds has risen to 1.85%, with a noted increase in the yield of ten-year policy bank bonds to 2.00% [46] - The report highlights a significant rise in yields for low-rated credit bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment [46]