房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 51 周周报（2025 年 12 月 13 日-2025 年 12 月 19 日） 新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄；深圳公积金新政放宽提取条件、 新增"又提又贷" 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比由正转负，同比降 幅收窄；新房库存面积环比上升，同比下降；去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 政策 中央层面，住建部部长倪虹在人民日报发表文章《推动房地产高质量发展（学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会精神）》，表示"长远看，我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间"， 并提出推动房地产高质量发展路径：以编制实施住房发展规划和年度计划为抓手，建 立"人、房、地、钱"要素联动机制；实施现房销售制、推行主办银行制、做实项目 公司制三大改革；建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度，以应对我国存量房屋规模大、 建成时间长的现实挑战。地方层面，深圳 12 月 16 日正式施行新版《深圳市住房公积 金提取管理规定》，此次"提取新规"聚焦购房、租房及老旧住房更新改造三大核心 场景，新增"购房首付款提取"、"购房税款提取"、"更新改造提 ...

非银金融 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市 非银金融行业周报 证监会会议部署"五项坚持" 证监会会议为"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"提供具体措施，传达学 习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神，对"十五五"规划与 2026 年进行具体布局。 会议强调要增强市场内在稳定性，不断提高资本市场制度的包容性吸引力。 金融与资本市场相关部署贯穿于中央经济工作会议的政策要求与重点任务 中，凸显了金融在服务"十五五"时期国家战略中的重要枢纽地位。继续看 好证券行业高景气度下长期估值中枢提升。 行业要闻 投资建议 继续看好券商板块估值向上空间。监管持续强化金融功能发挥重要性， 勾勒 2026 年资本市场改革与行业高质量发展路径，在证券行业景气度上 升背景下板块长期估值中枢有望提升。建议关注头部综合券商优势扩大 以及特色中小券商错位发展两条主线。 风险提示 监管政策、宏观经济发展及市场流动性表现不及预期；证券市场及利率 大幅波动导致业绩波动加剧；资本市场开放加速带来海外市场风险与外 资机构竞争压力；同质化竞争或引发价格战；券商并购不确定性或影响 板块价格稳定。 相关研究报告 《公募基金销售行为 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, indicating an expectation that the industry index will perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [2][46]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 1.87% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 5th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. This performance outpaced the CSI 300 index by 2.23 percentage points [2][13]. - The upcoming New Year holiday is expected to boost consumer travel demand, with significant increases in travel bookings. Domestic flight ticket reservations have exceeded 1.06 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 45% [5][28]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the service outsourcing sector, aiming to cultivate competitive enterprises and enhance employment opportunities by 2030 [28][32]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was highlighted by sub-sector increases, particularly in education (+5.21%), hotel and catering (+4.43%), and tourism and scenic spots (+2.48%) [17][21]. - The overall market saw the Shanghai Composite Index decline by 0.32%, while the social services sector managed to rise, indicating resilience in this industry [13][20]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) stands at 36.29, which is at the 38.15% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries are recommended for investment, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares [5][39]. - Hotel brands such as Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share [5][39]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is anticipated to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [5][39].

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 强于大市 智能驾驶箭在弦上 计算机行业"一周解码" 希迪智驾登陆港交所，背靠场景优势实现高成长但仍需穿越商业落地"四 重门"；全国首张 L3 自动驾驶正式号牌落地，标志着自动驾驶开始进 入受监管的真实运营阶段；OpenAI 启动新一轮最高 1000 亿美元融资， 估值或达 8300 亿美元，计划用于 AI 基础设施的长期扩张。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 建议关注智能驾驶相关企业，包括地平线机器人、黑芝麻智能等算力与芯片 企业，中科创达、德赛西威、经纬恒润、光庭信息等智驾系统与域控制器企 业，小马智行、文远知行等 Robotaxi 企业，中邮科技、万集科技、新北洋、 北路智控等垂直智驾企业，以及四维图新、小鹏汽车、浩瀚深度、阿尔特等。 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报告 《阿里打造 AI 超级 APP，海外算力政策松 动》20251212 《量子计算有望加速普及》20251207 《网络安全政策再加码》20251201 《从 Gemini 到英伟达：AI 竞争转向应用落地》 2 ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The global first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft has completed its maiden flight, and domestic express delivery volume has increased by 14.9% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [2][3] - Crude oil shipping rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported 2280.86 points, down 1.9% from December 11 [3][14] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, marking it as a special customs supervision area, with express delivery volume reaching 1807.4 billion pieces, a 14.9% increase year-on-year [3][21] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil shipping rates have decreased, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The VLCC market is experiencing a wait-and-see attitude as shipping owners maintain a strong sentiment despite a high number of bids [3][14] - The first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft, "Lan Ying R6000," developed by Shenzhen United Aircraft Technology Co., has completed its first test flight, enhancing the low-altitude economy and local industrial chain [3][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has started full island closure, with significant logistics policy benefits and a notable increase in express delivery volume [3][21] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index reported 6369.00 points, up 11.3% year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flight numbers have decreased year-on-year, while international flights have increased significantly [27] - The express delivery business volume in November 2025 increased by 5.00% year-on-year, while the total express delivery volume for the first 11 months reached 1807.41 billion pieces, a 14.90% increase [46] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy sector, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Look into investment opportunities in the cruise and water ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - Monitor investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Focus on investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation Holding, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and companies in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid rising prices [2][12] - The report highlights that the supply-side expansion peak has passed, and there is potential for recovery in industry prosperity [4] Industry Dynamics - The average price tracking 100 chemical products shows that 42 products increased in price, 37 decreased, and 21 remained stable during the week of December 15-21 [9][29] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $56.52 per barrel, down 1.60%, and Brent crude oil futures at $59.82 per barrel, down 2.13% [30] - The report notes a decrease in the average price of isooctanol and glyphosate, with isooctanol averaging 6,612 CNY/ton, down 4.97% week-on-week, and glyphosate at 24,901 CNY/ton, down 1.58% week-on-week [31][32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with low valuations, such as Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology, and suggests monitoring companies in emerging fields like semiconductor materials and new energy materials [12][19] - It emphasizes the potential for demand recovery supported by policies and the continuous optimization of the supply side, which could enhance the performance and valuation of leading companies [12][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the report industry investment rating information 2. Core View of the Report - The significance of whether the Fed will cut interest rates below the neutral rate to the US Treasury and precious metals markets is analyzed, and four scenarios are proposed, with scenarios two and three having a relatively high probability [2] - Monetary policy may become the focus of China's incremental policies in 2026 [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - After the Fed cut interest rates to the 3.5 - 3.75% range, this round has cumulatively cut interest rates by 175BP. The key to future interest rate cuts lies in whether to cut below the neutral rate. Four scenarios are analyzed, and the impacts on the US Treasury and precious metals markets are different. Scenarios two and three are more likely [2][10][11] - The central economic work conference's requirements imply that fiscal policy in 2026 may maintain the ratios of total fiscal expenditure/GDP and general public budget revenue/GDP stable. With limited decline space for real - estate - related revenue, monetary policy may be the focus of incremental policies [2][13] - This week, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.09% week - on - week and 24.08% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and increased by 17.61% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.70% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.20%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.44% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 0.92% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 2.32% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 7.54% week - on - week. The production material price index increased by 0.10% week - on - week and decreased by 1.76% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 3.10% and 3.42% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 0.41% on average week - on - week; the aluminum spot price increased by 0.20% on average week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.87% week - on - week. From December 1 - 18 this year, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 293,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document provides multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macro - economic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export value year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [29][33][37] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The document provides multiple charts showing important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, such as the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, and the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate [97][102][108] 3.4 Seasonal Trend of High - frequency Data - The document provides multiple charts showing the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, such as the daily average production of crude steel (decade) and the production material price index [112][121][127] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The document provides charts showing the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 本期观点（2025.12.21） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注'增量'政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 | - | '股债跷跷板'或将短期影响债市 | 低配 | | 货币 | - | 收益率将在 2%上下波动 | 低配 | | 大宗商品 | = | 关注财政增量政策落实进度 | 标配 | | 外汇 | = | 中国经济基本面优势支撑汇率宽幅波动 | 标配 | 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.28%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 1.09%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 7.92%，铁矿石主力 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis and construction[1][2][3] - The report provides a detailed overview of A-share market trends, including style performance, valuation, and fund flows, but does not elaborate on quantitative models or factors[18][59][84] - The report discusses style indices such as "momentum vs reversal" and "small-cap vs large-cap," but these are presented as market observations rather than constructed quantitative factors or models[59][60][78]

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月月报 11 月新房成交同比降幅扩大，二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济 工作会议指出"稳地产、去库存"，预期 26 年地产政策空间打开 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 【房企】 【政策】 【板块收益】 11 月新房成交面积环比由正转负、同比降幅扩大。11 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-6.8%，同比-40.7%，同比降幅较 10 月扩大 13.9pct，1-11 月累计同比-11.5%。我们认为，影响居民购房能力及购房意愿的收入与就业预期尚未根本性扭转，市场信心仍然不 足，叠加去年 12 月销售的基数也相对较高，全年地产市场压力很难缓解。 从各能级城市来看，11 月一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比降幅均扩大。1）一线城市：11 月新房成交面积环比+4.5%，同比-43.5%， 同比降幅较 10 月扩大 5.2pct；1-11 月累计同比-13.8%。具体来看，11 月北京新房成交面积环比-34%，同比-54%；上海环比+31%，同比- 22%；广州环比-1 ...