Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Timing Model (First Threshold Method) - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index measures the proportion of constituent stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index that have been in an upward trend over the past 20 trading days. This model uses a left-side trading strategy based on threshold values to determine market timing[64][65] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the diffusion index as the proportion of stocks in the index that have risen in the past 20 trading days 2. Set thresholds: when the diffusion index is above 0.9, the portfolio is fully in cash; when it is below 0.1, the portfolio is fully invested 3. Fill in signals for other periods based on the previous period's signal 4. Ensure that a full investment must precede a full cash position, and vice versa - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model failed to outperform the Micro-Cap Index in-sample but demonstrated controlled drawdowns. However, it struggled to identify major bear markets in 2024 and exited too early during the bull market in September 2024, missing significant gains. It performed better in 2025 by capturing the bottom and subsequent upward trends[65][66] - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Timing Model (Delayed Threshold Method) - **Model Construction Idea**: This right-side trading strategy modifies the first threshold method by using momentum instead of reversal logic. It aims to address the shortcomings of the left-side approach by focusing on momentum[67] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the diffusion index as the proportion of stocks in the index that have risen in the past 20 trading days 2. Set thresholds: when the diffusion index drops below 0.9 after being above it the previous day, the portfolio moves to cash; when it rises above 0.1 after being below it the previous day, the portfolio becomes fully invested 3. Fill in signals for other periods based on the previous period's signal - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model failed to outperform the Micro-Cap Index in-sample but demonstrated controlled drawdowns. It avoided early exits during the September 2024 bull market, preserving gains and achieving a new high in strategy net value. Its performance in 2025 was mediocre, capturing some upward trends but overall underwhelming[67][69] - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Timing Model (Dual Moving Average Method) - **Model Construction Idea**: This adaptive trading strategy uses short-term and long-term moving averages of the diffusion index to determine market timing. It aims to reduce reliance on fixed thresholds and adapt to market trends[68][70] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average as the 10-day moving average (MA) of the diffusion index 2. Define the long-term moving average as the 20-day moving average of the short-term MA 3. When the short-term MA crosses above the long-term MA, the portfolio becomes fully invested; when it crosses below, the portfolio moves to cash - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model failed to outperform the Micro-Cap Index in-sample but demonstrated excellent drawdown control. It avoided significant losses during the 2024 bear market and preserved gains during the September 2024 bull market. However, it showed limitations in trend recognition due to insufficient parameter smoothing, leading to suboptimal performance in 2025[70][71] Model Backtesting Results - **First Threshold Method**: - Triggered a full investment signal on April 7, 2025, at a diffusion index value of 0.0225[65][66] - **Delayed Threshold Method**: - Triggered an opening signal on April 22, 2025[67][69] - **Dual Moving Average Method**: - Triggered an opening signal on April 30, 2025[70][71]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 1.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million yuan, up 35.44% [5][8] - The growth was driven by significant increases in membership store channels and online e-commerce, with online revenue growing by 204.33% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.501 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 26.97% increase [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 296 million yuan, a 42.92% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 36 million yuan, up 257.97% [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 383 million yuan, a 39.23% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.25% [5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 28.97%, with a net profit margin of 13.31% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included 785 million yuan from chicken feet, 93 million yuan from skin products, and 48 million yuan from chicken wings, with notable growth in chicken wings at 23.76% [6] - Online and offline channels generated revenues of 680 million yuan and 1.104 billion yuan respectively, with online sales growing significantly [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 197 million yuan in 2025, 231 million yuan in 2026, and 261 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 25.49%, 17.16%, and 13.01% [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 5.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.27%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 0.68 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company focuses on its leading fish products and stable growth in snack channels, with significant investments in brand development, R&D, and channel expansion [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, with a net profit margin of 11.34%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 28.30 billion, 33.56 billion, and 38.77 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.33%, 18.59%, and 15.52% respectively [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 3.25 billion, 3.99 billion, and 4.81 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 11.45%, 23.0%, and 20.51% respectively [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.72, 0.89, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [6][9].

证券研究报告：公用事业 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 l 盈利预测与投资评级: | 最新收盘价（元） | 5.87 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）22.63 | / 22.63 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）133 | / 133 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 6.47 / 5.03 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.5% | | 市盈率 | 20.00 | | 第一大股东 | 联众新能源有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:侯若雪 SAC 登记编号:S1340524100002 Email:houruoxue@cnpsec.com 联美控股(600167) 2024 年业绩受减值影响，分红稳健 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季 报。 2024 年公司营收 35.1 亿元，同比+2.9%；归母净利润 6.6 亿元， 同比-23.3%；其中 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.51 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.3% to 660 million yuan due to asset impairment losses and increased costs [3][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.6% to 620 million yuan [3][4]. - The company has a strong cash flow position with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.3 billion yuan in 2024 and cash on hand of 7.48 billion yuan, leading to a total dividend payout of 910 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.8% based on the closing price on April 30, 2025 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.74 billion yuan, 4.03 billion yuan, and 4.40 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 780 million yuan, 860 million yuan, and 960 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [5][9]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 49.3% and 37.0%, respectively, showing improvements of 4.6 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][10]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 32.5%, indicating a stable financial structure [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 1.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million yuan, up 35.44% [5][8] - The growth was driven by significant increases in membership store channels and online e-commerce, with online revenue growing by 204.33% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.501 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 26.97% increase [8][11] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 11.62 yuan - Total shares: 4.28 billion, with a market capitalization of 5 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 13.75/5.43 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 13.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 31.41 [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 296 million yuan, a 42.92% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 36 million yuan, up 257.97% [5][6] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 383 million yuan, a 39.23% increase, with net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.25% [5][6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 28.97%, with a net profit margin of 13.31% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included: - Chicken feet: 785 million yuan (+8.63%) - Skin jelly: 93 million yuan (+6.29%) - Vegetarian products: 93 million yuan (-2.05%) - Chicken wings: 48 million yuan (+23.76%) - Others: 152 million yuan (+840.69%) [6] - Online and offline channels generated revenues of 680 million yuan and 1.104 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 204.33% and 17.70% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 197 million yuan in 2025, a 25.49% increase, and 261 million yuan by 2027, a 13.01% increase [8][11] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26, 22, and 19, respectively [9][11]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: GRU - **Model Construction Idea**: The GRU model is used to predict future stock returns based on historical data and incorporates various technical and fundamental factors[3][4][5] - **Model Construction Process**: The GRU model is trained on historical data to predict future returns. It uses a recurrent neural network structure, specifically the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), to capture sequential dependencies in time-series data. The model is applied to different stock pools (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) and is evaluated based on its long-short portfolio returns[3][4][5] - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model demonstrates strong performance in predicting returns, with positive long-short portfolio returns in most cases. However, its performance varies across different stock pools and time horizons[3][4][5] 2. Model Name: Barra5d - **Model Construction Idea**: The Barra5d model predicts future returns by incorporating short-term technical factors and ensuring style neutrality[6][25] - **Model Construction Process**: The Barra5d model uses a combination of short-term technical indicators (e.g., 5-day momentum) and applies style-neutral constraints to ensure that the predictions are not biased by market-wide factors. The model is tested on various stock pools, including CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000[6][25] - **Model Evaluation**: The Barra5d model shows strong performance, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock pools, with weekly long-short portfolio returns exceeding 3% in some cases[6][25] 3. Model Name: Open1d - **Model Construction Idea**: The Open1d model focuses on short-term price movements and is designed to capture immediate market reactions[19][21][23] - **Model Construction Process**: The Open1d model uses one-day price changes as its primary input and applies machine learning techniques to predict short-term returns. It is evaluated based on its ability to generate excess returns in long-short portfolios[19][21][23] - **Model Evaluation**: The Open1d model has shown strong performance year-to-date, with cumulative excess returns of 4.24% relative to the CSI 1000 index[19][21][23] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. GRU Model - Weekly long-short portfolio return: Positive in most cases, with variations across stock pools[3][4][5] - CSI 500 stock pool: Weekly long-short return > 3%[5] - CSI 1000 stock pool: Performance is mixed, with some models (e.g., Barra1d, Barra5d) performing well[6][25] 2. Barra5d Model - Weekly long-short portfolio return: > 3% in the CSI 500 stock pool[6][25] - Strong performance in the CSI 1000 stock pool, particularly in predicting style-neutral future returns[6][25] 3. Open1d Model - Year-to-date excess return: 4.24% relative to the CSI 1000 index[19][21][23] - Weekly long-short portfolio return: Mixed, with some weeks showing slight negative returns[19][21][23] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the historical sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Beta is calculated as the slope of the regression line between a stock's returns and market returns over a specified historical period[15] 2. Factor Name: Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the tendency of stocks with strong past performance to continue performing well[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Momentum is calculated as the mean of historical excess returns over a specified period[15] 3. Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the variability of a stock's returns over time[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Volatility} = 0.74 \times \text{Historical Excess Return Volatility} + 0.16 \times \text{Cumulative Excess Return Deviation} + 0.1 \times \text{Residual Return Volatility} $ - Historical Excess Return Volatility: Standard deviation of excess returns - Cumulative Excess Return Deviation: Deviation of cumulative excess returns from the mean - Residual Return Volatility: Standard deviation of residual returns after removing market effects[15] 4. Factor Name: Liquidity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the ease of trading a stock based on turnover rates[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Liquidity} = 0.35 \times \text{Monthly Turnover Rate} + 0.35 \times \text{Quarterly Turnover Rate} + 0.3 \times \text{Annual Turnover Rate} $ - Turnover Rate: Ratio of trading volume to total shares outstanding[15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Beta Factor - Weekly long-short portfolio return: Strong performance in recent weeks[16] 2. Momentum Factor - Weekly long-short portfolio return: Positive for long-term momentum (e.g., 120-day), negative for short-term momentum (e.g., 20-day)[18][23][25] 3. Volatility Factor - Weekly long-short portfolio return: Positive for long-term volatility (e.g., 120-day), mixed for short-term volatility (e.g., 20-day)[18][23][25] 4. Liquidity Factor - Weekly long-short portfolio return: Strong performance, particularly in high-turnover stocks[16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 5.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.27%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 0.68 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company focuses on its leading fish products and stable growth in snack channels, with a strategy centered on big single products to drive overall category growth [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, with a net profit margin of 11.34%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline in both metrics [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 28.30 billion, 33.56 billion, and 38.77 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.33%, 18.59%, and 15.52% respectively [6][9]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.25 billion, 3.99 billion, and 4.81 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.45%, 23.0%, and 20.51% respectively [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.72, 0.89, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 10.821 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 124.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 215 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 3344.13% [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 11.02%, an increase of 1.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.99%, up by 1.86 percentage points [5] - The company has launched a new stock incentive plan for 2025, aiming for significant net profit growth targets over the next four years [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a net profit of 412 million yuan in its snack wholesale business for Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 3.85%, marking a record high [6] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 52.567 billion yuan, 63.522 billion yuan, and 72.402 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 62.6%, 20.84%, and 13.98% [8] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 744 million yuan, 985 million yuan, and 1.185 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 153.33%, 32.43%, and 20.36% [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is 29.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.8 billion shares [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 39.88, decreasing to 30.11 in 2026 and 25.02 in 2027 [11] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 79.9%, indicating a high level of leverage [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with 2024 revenue reaching 1.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 45.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing investment in the power grid, with a reported investment of 95.6 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 24.8% increase year-on-year [4]. - New product launches, including the successful operation of the first 550kV GIS product, are expected to drive future growth, with new orders totaling 204 million yuan for this product line [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.11 billion yuan, 2.53 billion yuan, and 3.04 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 370 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 580 million yuan [6][10]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are 38.9% and 14.3%, respectively, reflecting improvements in product mix [4][11]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 16.98 in 2024 to 7.44 by 2027, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness over time [10][11].