Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and South America's new season may be in a bumper - harvest pattern. Currently, it's the U.S. soybean export and South American growth and harvest season. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may be stable [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2505 contract may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: 43 soybean meal prices in different regions: Zhangjiagang 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (- 30), Rizhao 3,070 yuan/ton (- 10), Dongguan 2,970 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Market analysis: Sino - U.S. tariff policies have caused market panic. CBOT soybeans have declined due to demand concerns. In April, the number of imported soybeans is expected to increase. Terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. Oil mill soybean meal inventory remains neutral [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,082 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,281 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port is 2,130 - 2,155 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, and imported corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, but there are still potential suppressing factors [4] - Reference view: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [4] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,010 - 79,290 yuan, down 905 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, giving the market strong expectations. The raw material impact is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [5] - Reference view: Affected by the external market, Shanghai copper may open sharply lower. It is recommended to keep the strategy unchanged [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,200 yuan/ton. The price difference between them is 1,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: Lithium ore prices are unchanged, and inventory has increased. Supply is growing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6][7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [8] - Reference view: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will oscillate at a low level [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (washed coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is still sluggish, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to loose supply, coking coal and coke will rebound weakly at a low level with limited space [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 786 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 787 yuan [10] - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is weak both domestically and overseas, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the U.S. dollar index provides some support [10] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: After the U.S. announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - attacked, global capital markets tumbled, and crude oil prices dropped more than 10% during the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the U.S. PMI data in February contracted [11] - Reference view: The WTI main contract will experience a sharp decline after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline in the domestic market [11] Group 10: Rubber - Spot information: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 16,350 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" have affected China's tire and automobile exports, causing rubber prices to fall. Domestically, full - latex rubber production is gradually resuming, and the global rubber supply and demand are both loose [13] - Reference view: Rubber prices will mainly oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the supplementary decline after the holiday [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,900 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [14] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise start - up rate has increased. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and inventory has decreased. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [14] - Reference view: In the short term, lacking fundamental positive drivers, the futures price will oscillate at a low level [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,471.56 yuan/ton, down 1.57 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - Market analysis: The soda ash start - up rate has increased, production has risen, and factory inventory has accumulated. Social inventory has decreased slightly. Demand is average, and there is resistance to high - price goods [15] - Reference view: Before the holiday, the 05 contract fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [15]

1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8520 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 90 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或震荡箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3020 元/吨（-20）、天津 3160 元/吨（0）、 日照 3080 元/吨（0）、东莞 2970 元/吨（-10）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：USDA 发布的意向报告中性偏空，大豆种植面积预测减少。当前处于南美 收割窗口期，持续关注产区天气变化。中美贸易关税问题，压制美豆出口需求。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：因大豆到厂延迟以及停机检修，近期油厂会有大范围的停机，豆粕 供应可能偏紧，预期后期南美大豆集中上市或将转为宽松。终端养 ...

Group 1: General Information - The report analyzes multiple commodities, including soybean oil, soybean meal, corn, copper, lithium carbonate, steel, coking coal, iron ore, crude oil, rubber, PVC, and soda ash. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][12][13][14] Group 2: Spot Market Information - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,430 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are as follows: Zhangjiagang 3,040 yuan/ton (- 10), Tianjin 3,160 yuan/ton (+30), Rizhao 3,080 yuan/ton (- 20), Dongguan 2,980 yuan/ton (- 20). [2] - **Corn**: The mainstream purchase prices include 2,085 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,286 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, and 2,150 - 2,155 yuan/ton at Jinzhou Port. [3] - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,860 - 80,030 yuan, down 660 yuan. [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,100 (+50) yuan/ton, and industrial - grade is 72,200 yuan/ton. [5] - **Steel**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, with Tangshan's operating rate at 80.58%, social inventory of 628 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 225.78 million tons. [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. [8] - **Iron Ore**: The Platts index is 103.85, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 780 yuan. [9] - **Crude Oil**: WTI crude oil is based on a support level around 65 US dollars/barrel. [10] - **Rubber**: The prices of different types of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece 21,600 yuan/ton, etc. [11] - **PVC**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. [13] - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,492.19 yuan/ton, down 9.37 yuan/ton week - on - week. [14] Group 3: Market Analysis International and Macro - level - For soybeans, the Brazilian 2024/25 soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and the new season in South America may be in a high - yield pattern. The US - China tariff policy affects the soybean market, and the USDA's soybean planting area forecast is decreasing. [1][2] - In the corn market, the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report and quarterly inventory data are to be released, and the April 2 US tariff event is uncertain. [3] - For copper, the global situation is uncertain, with differences between the US and non - US regions, and the Fed's policy and tariff expectations are factors. [4] - In the crude oil market, the conflict between the US and the Houthi armed forces intensifies, OPEC+ has a new production - cut policy, the US trade war starts, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be approaching an end. [10] Domestic Supply - demand - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term supply and downstream demand are neutral, and short - term inventory may remain stable. [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to delayed soybean arrival and maintenance shutdowns, the supply may be tight in the near term but will turn loose when South American soybeans are concentrated on the market. Terminal demand is average. [2] - **Corn**: Spring selling pressure is lower than in previous years, imports have decreased, and downstream feed consumption may increase, but there are still potential suppressing factors. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost of lithium ore is stable, inventory has increased, supply is growing but the growth rate is slowing, and demand has improved but lacks upward driving force. [5][6] - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is rising, and inventory is accumulating, showing a supply - demand dual - strong pattern. [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and inventory is slightly accumulating. [8] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, demand is weak in China, and overseas demand is differentiated. There are both bearish and bullish factors. [9] - **Rubber**: Domestic supply is recovering, and downstream tire operating rates are good, but the global supply - demand is loose, and the US auto tariff may suppress demand. [12] - **PVC**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is decreasing. [13] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing as maintenance resumes, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average. [14] Group 4: Reference Views - **Soybean Oil**: The 2505 contract of soybean oil may run in a short - term shock box range. [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal may fluctuate in a short - term range. [2] - **Corn**: The short - term corn futures price may be weak in shock, and attention should be paid to the performance at the 2,250 yuan/ton support level. [3] - **Copper**: The copper price has tested 80,000 yuan as expected, and the next step is to pay attention to the test around 79,000 yuan. [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may be weak in shock, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. [6] - **Steel**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel is in a low - level shock. [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are weakly rebounding in a low - level shock, with limited space. [8] - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore will be mainly in shock in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious. [9] - **Crude Oil**: Recently, the crude oil price should focus on market games, and the WTI main contract rebounds based on 65 US dollars/barrel. [10] - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of work of downstream rubber enterprises, and rubber is mainly in a weak shock, with attention to the support at the previous low of the main contract. [12] - **PVC**: In the short term, there is a lack of fundamental positive driving forces, and the futures price may operate in a low - level shock. [13] - **Soda Ash**: The 05 contract of soda ash fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range shock in the short term. [14]

铁矿石期货周报（20250324-20250328） 安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 1 / 4 安粮期货研究报告 综述：供需稳定，铁矿震荡为主 | | | 上周看法： 铁矿周内或以震荡回落为主 安粮期货 2025 年 3 月 31 日 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 黑色金属小组 研究员:李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 郭芳：从业资格证号：F03101430 初审： 沈欣萌：资格号为：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 周度观点： I2505 合约盘面或以震荡为主 逻辑判断： 1、库存：本周 45 个港口进口铁矿库存为 14520.4 万吨，较上周环比增加 32.86 万吨，增幅 0.23%。247 家钢铁企业进口铁矿库存为 9110.45 万吨，较上周环比减少 14.41 万吨，降幅为 0.16% ...

PVC 期货周报（20250331-0404） | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | --- | --- | | | 皖证监函【2017】203 号 | | | 研究所 能源化工小组 | | | 研究员：刘筱璇 | | 安粮期货研究所 | 从业资格号：F03101434 | | | 投资咨询号：Z0021181 | | 年 月 日 2025 03 31 | 初审： | | | 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 | | | 投资咨询号：Z0014147 | | | 复审： | | | 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 | | | 投资咨询号：Z0013987 | 安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 1 / 7 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 安粮期货研究报告 PVC：基本面暂无明显好转，期价或低位震荡运行 品种： 聚氯乙烯 本周看法： PVC 期价低位震荡运行 上周看法： PVC 期价低位震荡运行 周度建议： PVC 期价低位震荡运行 逻辑判断： 一、上周 PVC 行情回顾 总部地址：安徽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2505 contract is likely to operate within a box - shaped range [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate within a range [2] - The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price performance at the support level of 2,250 yuan/ton [3] - The copper price has tested 80,000 as expected, and the next step is to pay attention to the test around 79,000 [4] - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6] - The steel market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel will oscillate at a low level [7] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will weakly oscillate and rebound at a low level, with limited space [8] - Iron ore 2505 will fluctuate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9] - Recently, the crude oil price should focus on market games, and the WTI main contract will rebound based on the 65 - dollar/barrel position [10] - For rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of work. It will mainly oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous low of the main contract [12] - In the short - term, the PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to the lack of fundamental positive drivers [13] - The soda ash futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [14] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Spot Information - The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin 3,130 yuan/ton (-30), Rizhao 3,100 yuan/ton (+20), Dongguan 3,000 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: the average price of key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,085 yuan/ton; the average price of key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region is 2,286 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port is 2,150 - 2,155 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Bayuquan is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton [3] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 79,860 - 80,030 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan, with a flat - to - 30 - yuan premium, and the imported copper ore index is - 24.14, down 1.26 [4] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,150 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,850 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan/ton, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the rebar steel mill inventory is 225,780 tons [7] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [8] - The iron ore Platts index is 103.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 780 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 783 yuan/ton [9] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - slice 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber 16,350 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are: smoked sheet 72.59 Thai baht/kg, glue 67.5 Thai baht/kg, cup rubber 60.95 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 68.99 Thai baht/kg [11][12] - The mainstream spot price of East China type 5 PVC is 4,890 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 260 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period [13] - The mainstream price of national heavy soda ash is 1,504.06 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,550 yuan/ton, 1,600 yuan/ton, and 1,525 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged from the previous period [14] Market Analysis Soybean Oil - Internationally, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year, and the new season in South America may be in a high - yield pattern. Domestically, short - term soybean oil supply and downstream demand may remain neutral, and short - term inventory may remain stable [1] Soybean Meal - Macroeconomically, Sino - US tariff policies have caused market panic. Internationally, it is in the South American harvest window, and attention should be paid to the weather. Sino - US trade tariffs suppress US soybean export demand. Domestically, due to soybean arrival delays and shutdowns for maintenance, short - term supply may be tight, but it will become loose after the concentrated listing of South American soybeans. Terminal demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis, while the oil mill's soybean meal inventory has increased significantly [2] Corn - Externally, the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report and quarterly inventory data are about to be released, and the April 2 US comprehensive tariff event is uncertain. Domestically, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% complete, faster than last year, and imports of corn and substitute grains have decreased significantly, reducing the market supply pressure. Downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and feed consumption is expected to increase, but there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy - related grain rotation and wheat substitution [3] Copper - Globally, there are differences between the US and non - US regions under uncertain situations and tariff expectations, and the Fed's continuous maintenance of the status quo reflects this. In 2025, the topic of ending the interest - rate cut path may be discussed. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, which is beneficial to market sentiment. In the industry, raw material shocks are still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [4] Lithium Carbonate - In terms of cost, lithium ore prices have loosened. In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate has been increasing, approaching the historical average, and the supply is increasing but at a slower pace. In terms of demand, terminal consumption improved in March, but it is still insufficient to drive the price upward. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory has been accumulating [5][6] Steel - The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, with the far - month contracts stronger than the near - month ones. The contango structure has weakened, and the current valuation is moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry, the apparent steel demand has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have oscillated strongly this week, and the cost center has increased. Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, but the overall inventory level is low [7] Coking Coal and Coke - Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and coking plant capacity utilization running smoothly. Although there are disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, the overall level remains high. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and the expected decline in hot metal production still existing. Independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly accumulating. The average profit per ton of coke is running smoothly and approaching the break - even point [8] Iron Ore - Supply is increasing, with the first - quarter shipments of Australia's three major mines increasing by 8% year - on - year and the new mining area of Brazil's Vale being put into production ahead of schedule, and global port inventories reaching a new high since 2023. Demand is weak, with the slowdown of Chinese steel mill复产, low funds in downstream real estate and infrastructure projects, low daily hot metal production, cautious restocking by steel mills, and a decline in port throughput. Overseas demand is divided. The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's new policy has raised concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand, but the Fed's interest - rate cut signal has supported commodity prices [9] Crude Oil - The conflict between the US and the Houthi armed forces has increased uncertainty in the Middle East, and crude oil has rebounded strongly recently. OPEC+ has issued a new production - cut policy, and the production - cut volume is greater than the planned increase in April. The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations are disturbing the market, and WTI crude oil has support around 65 dollars/barrel. The US trade war has started, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may be coming to an end, with Russian production capacity expected to recover. In the second quarter, demand will gradually recover, but the growth rate is average due to the trade war [10] Rubber - Domestic whole latex is gradually starting to be harvested, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually stopping harvesting, leading to an increase in raw material prices. The downstream tire start - up rate has recovered well after the holiday. Currently, the global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the US auto tariff policy may suppress demand [12] PVC - Supply: The start - up rate of PVC production enterprises decreased slightly last week. Demand: Domestic downstream product enterprises have not improved significantly, and transactions are mainly for rigid demand. Inventory: As of March 27, PVC social inventory decreased, and the current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, with high inventory and weak downstream demand [13] Soda Ash - Supply: The overall start - up rate of soda ash increased last week, and production increased. Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory decreased significantly, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand: The performance is average, with downstream enterprises replenishing inventory for low - price goods on a rigid basis and resisting high - price goods [14]

1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8520 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 市场分析：从外盘来看，美国农业部播种意向报告及季度库存数据即将公布，若数据变化 较大或将对市场产生影响，另外 4 月 2 日美国全面关税事件暂不确定，市场不稳定性冲击 市场；从国内来看，基层农户售粮接近 9 成，较去年同期偏快，因此春季售粮压力低于往 年，且进口玉米及替代性谷物进口同比大幅减少，对玉米市场冲击减弱，市场阶段性供应 压力减轻；下游生猪产能持续恢复，饲料消费有望提升，整体供需格局趋于改善，但近期 政策粮轮换及小麦对玉米替代等潜在压制因素仍在。 参考观点：短期玉米期价区间震荡运行，短线参与为主。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 305 ...

1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8460 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨。 2、市场分析：（1）国际大豆：相关机构称，目前巴西 2024/25 年度大豆作物收割率快于 上年同期。南美新季或处于丰产格局。当前时间窗口下，正处美豆出口与南美生长收割季， 建议后市积极关注美豆出口、南美豆生长收割情况、南北美天气等因素。（2）国内产业层 面：短期豆油供应与下游需求或维持中性，豆油短期库存或维稳。 3、参考观点：豆油 2505 合约，短线或箱体区间运行。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3040 元/吨（-90）、天津 3160 元/吨（-40）、 日照 3090 元/吨（-50）、东莞 3040 元/吨（0）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：当前处于南美收割窗口期，持续关注产区天气变化。中美贸易关税问题， 压制美豆出口需求。 市场分析：从外盘来看，3 月公布的 USDA 报告显示，3 月的数据与前两个月数据一致，产 量及期末库存同比下降，近期受关税事件影响，美玉米企稳反弹，支撑进口成本；从国内 来看，基层农户售粮接近 ...

安粮期货期权数据报告 豆粕期价小幅震荡，期货主力合约 M2505 报 收于 2826 元/吨。豆粕期权成交 460156 手，持 仓量为 1327857 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.676，目前 成交量集中在虚值期权。期权加权隐含波动率 为 22.03%，30 日历史波动率为 20.77%,期权隐 波小幅下降。 安粮期货研究所 期权组 商品期权数据研报 2025 年 3 月 27 日 玉米期价小幅波动，期权隐波保持稳定 豆粕期价小幅震荡，期权隐波小幅下降 内容摘要 玉米期价小幅波动，期货主力合约 C2505 报 收于 2266 元/吨。玉米期权成交 87703 手，持仓 量为 497290 手，成交量 PCR 为 0.864，今日玉 米期权成交量最高的合约为 C2505 合约，其占总 成交量比例为 74%左右。期权加权隐含波动率为 10.08%,30 日历史波动率为 8.82%，期权隐波保 持稳定。 TEL:0551-62879960 张莎 期货从业资格号： F03088817 投资咨询证号： Z0019577 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9 ...