Guo Jin Qi Huo
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铁矿石期货日报-20250822
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 13:59
Report Overview - The report is a daily report on iron ore futures, covering the futures market, spot market, influencing factors, and market outlook [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - On August 21, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. The price rose in the night session, fell after the day - session opening, reached a low of 770 points, then rose around 10:15 am, and fell again near the end of the session, closing at 772.5 points with a 0.98% increase. The trading volume was 281,800 lots, a decrease of 7,600 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 11,185 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a reverse market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts rose by 4 to 7.5 points throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 839,690 lots, an increase of 1,746 lots from the previous trading day, with the i2601 contract's open interest increasing by 11,185 lots [5] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 31.6 yuan/ton, a minimum of 23.6 yuan/ton, and 30.4 yuan/ton on the day [7] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 3,100 lots, a minimum of 2,000 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Macroeconomic Environment Impact - Overseas macro - disturbances: The Fed's July meeting minutes sent hawkish signals, strengthening the US dollar index and suppressing commodity prices. Domestically, the stable LPR rate reflects the expectation of loose monetary policy, increasing market sentiment volatility [9] 3.2 Demand - side Support and Concerns - High hot metal production and decent steel mill profits provide short - term support for iron ore prices. However, with the approaching of a major event on September 3, steel mill production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may be tightened, and port transportation may be restricted, causing concerns about weakening future demand [10] 4. Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract rebounded with narrow fluctuations on the day. The fundamentals are in a weak equilibrium stage of both supply and demand increasing. High hot metal production provides rigid demand support, but supply is rising and inventory accumulation pressure is emerging. Technically, the price shows significant range - bound characteristics, with intense competition in the 770 - 780 yuan/ton range. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [11]
豆粕期货日报-20250816
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 11:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of the USDA August supply - demand report and the rising weather risk premium, the market sentiment is high. The CBOT soybean futures have risen continuously, supporting the domestic soybean meal market price. The increase in the cost of imported soybeans also provides strong support. However, the current abundant supply of imported soybeans, high operating rate of oil mills, and high inventory pressure of soybean meal may limit the increase in the soybean meal market price. It is expected that the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillatory trend, mainly with interval adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On August 14, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract first rose and then fell, closing at 3157 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. The trading volume for the day was 1,347,343 lots, and the open interest was 1,990,701 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The soybean meal futures contracts generally rose slightly throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,655,321 lots, a decrease of 25,411 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: On August 14, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions declined slightly. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 2990 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3090 yuan, unchanged; in Rizhao it was 3010 yuan, down 10 yuan; and in Dongguan it was 2980 yuan, down 10 yuan [7][8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 lots to 10,925 lots, with the increase mainly from Dongguan Fuyuan with 2,000 new lots [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Last week (August 3 - August 9), Brazil exported 2.2402 million tons of soybeans and 284,000 tons of soybean meal. This week (August 10 - August 16), it plans to export 2.34 million tons of soybeans and 63,900 tons of soybean meal. The import cost of soybeans continued to rise, with US soybeans up 41 yuan/ton, reaching a 3 - month high; Brazilian soybeans up 19 yuan/ton, breaking a more than 1 - year high; and Argentine soybeans up 17 yuan/ton, hitting a 7 - month high [9]. - **Basis Data**: A basis trend chart is provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [10].
豆一期货日报-20250815
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 12:14
Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Beans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 12, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE Bean No.1 futures fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 4,067 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,073 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,015 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,034 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day. The trading volume was 141,159 lots, and the open interest was 185,359 lots, with a daily increase of 30,232 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Open Interest (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,087 | -11 | -0.27% | 62,101 | 47,467 | -24,040 | 0.81% | | A2511 | 4,034 | -29 | -0.71% | 141,159 | 185,359 | 30,232 | 1.43% | | A2601 | 4,031 | -24 | -0.59% | 38,907 | 63,644 | 10,304 | 1.09% | | A2603 | 4,031 | -1 | -0.47% | 5,184 | 25,892 | 377 | 0.94% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's basis of Bean No.1 was -14 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen. The total registered warehouse receipts of Bean No.1 today were 12,865 lots, a decrease of 258 lots from the previous trading day [5]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4,054 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. In recent days, the spot price of soybeans has continued to rise steadily. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8283 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%. Currently, the inventory accumulation of port soybeans has slowed down [8][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed an overall upward trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4,839.38 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 4,024.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3,867.78 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a steady - to - rising trend [10].
玻璃期货日报-20250815
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 12:01
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, with a tug - of - war between weak reality and policy expectations. Mid - term directional breakthroughs depend on the actual implementation of capacity - clearing policies and the substantial recovery of demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The market's kinetic energy conversion depends on inventory reduction rates and the pace of macro - level positive news realization [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 13, 2025, the FG2601 glass futures contract oscillated around the moving average during the night and early sessions. In the afternoon, short - sellers gained the upper hand, pushing the price down to the daily low and closing with a negative line. The price dropped by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decline, and closed at 1214 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.2177 million lots, and the open interest was 1.0237 million lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All 12 glass futures contracts closed lower. The total open interest of the variety was 1.8795 million lots, a decrease of 59,402 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2601 increased by 88,800 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On the day, put options on glass outperformed call options [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of glass continued to be weak. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in other regions were under pressure and declined [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Factors - Supply side: The daily melting volume of float glass in production reached 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase month - on - month. The operating rate was 75.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The weekly output increased by 0.16% to 1.117 million tons. In August, there were 2 cold - repaired and 2 restarted production lines, with capacity remaining basically unchanged. Demand side: The demand for real - estate completion did not improve. Deep - processing enterprises faced difficulties in collecting funds, and new orders decreased year - on - year. They mainly focused on consuming raw - sheet inventories [11] 3.3.2 Inventory Analysis - The overall inventory of glass enterprises increased from a downward trend. It rose by 2.348 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase, reaching a total of 61.847 million weight boxes. Inventories of glass enterprises in all regions increased [13]
纯碱期货日报-20250815
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:55
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the resumption of production at Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory and the reduction in photovoltaic glass production will put pressure on soda ash prices, but the cost line of the ammonia - soda process and the marginal improvement in light soda ash demand provide phased support. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the game between capacity expansion and demand improvement. Before the supply - demand pattern changes significantly, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Key factors to track in the future include the progress of plant resumption, the cold - repair scale of photovoltaic glass, and the implementation of policy details [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On August 13, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a "high - opening and low - going" trend. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1408 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1423 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1375 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 2.49 million lots, a decrease of 745,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.218 million lots, an increase of 64,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: - Futures prices: For the soda ash 2509 contract, the opening price was 1293 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.47%; for the soda ash 2601 contract, the opening price was 1408 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.36%; for the soda ash 2605 contract, the opening price was 1458 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.42% [4]. - Domestic spot prices: Most domestic soda ash prices remained stable on August 13, 2025. For example, in the national market, the price of light soda ash and heavy soda ash remained unchanged at 1250 yuan/ton and 1350 yuan/ton respectively. The price of float glass decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [5]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Policy - related**: Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Stable Growth Plan for Ten Key Industries" mentioned the optimization of soda ash production capacity, the detailed rules for eliminating old - fashioned production capacity in late August have not been implemented, and the market's expectations for policy strength have cooled [6]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - Maintenance continuation: Jiangsu Xuzhou Fengcheng (600,000 tons/year) has been under maintenance for 23 days, Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory (600,000 tons/year) postponed its resumption of production due to equipment problems, and Tangshan Sanyou (2.3 million tons/year) reduced its load to 70%, affecting a daily output of about 28,000 tons in total. - Capacity release: Shandong Haitian (1.5 million tons/year) increased its load to 70%, and Shandong Haihua (3 million tons/year) operated at a reduced load. The supply side showed a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [6].
豆粕期货周报-20250812
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 09:17
Report Overview - Research Variety: Beans - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal Futures - Researcher: Qi Jianhua Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 first declined and then rose, with short - term technical support and a slight weekly increase. However, affected by factors such as the decline of CBOT soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean meal spot supply, and limited demand, the soybean meal market price was under pressure. The average spot price in most regions of the country fell below 2,800 yuan/ton, and the rebound of the futures contract M2509 was restricted, with limited upside potential [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Market Overall Performance - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 reduced positions and increased trading volume. The price was mainly in a strong and volatile adjustment, and the weekly K - line was finally a positive line [3] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Week Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Week Closing Price | Week Settlement Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | m2507 | 2,820 | 2,820 | 2,781 | 2,802 | 2,802 | - 4 | 166 | 2,016 | - 166 | 0.05 | | m2508 | 2,934 | 2,966 | 2,908 | 2,957 | 2,952 | 15 | 224,458 | 93,250 | - 43,408 | 65.84 | | m2509 | 2,954 | 2,985 | 2,925 | 2,976 | 2,971 | 14 | 4,712,933 | 2,008,008 | - 115,107 | 1,390.19 | | m2511 | 2,992 | 3,023 | 2,959 | 3,013 | 3,009 | 13 | 475,180 | 657,765 | 56,886 | 142.03 | | m2512 | 3,023 | 3,046 | 3,002 | 3,037 | 3,034 | 7 | 80,196 | 123,631 | 13,228 | 24.23 | | m2601 | 3,007 | 3,024 | 2,978 | 3,015 | 3,009 | 3 | 1,220,183 | 1,114,718 | 55,939 | 365.7 | | m2603 | 2,864 | 2,883 | 2,845 | 2,875 | 2,871 | 10 | 297,454 | 375,793 | 62,855 | 85.09 | | m2605 | 2,711 | 2,722 | 2,696 | 2,704 | 2,704 | - 14 | 531,616 | 562,845 | 80,217 | 143.78 | | Sub - total for Soybean Meal | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | | Total | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | [7] 2. Influencing Factor Analysis 2.1 This Week's Important News and Event Reviews - **US Soybeans**: According to the USDA monthly report, the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 83.4 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 acres. The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in July for the 2025/2026 season is 310 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15 million bushels [11][12] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: Brazil's ANEC stated that the expected soybean export volume in July is 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase compared to 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. The expected soybean meal export volume is 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase compared to 2.01 million tons in the same period last year. Additionally, Safras&Mercado said that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2% year - on - year to 48.2 million hectares [12] - **Domestic Situation**: Mvsteel showed that in the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%, 56,300 tons lower than the forecast. It is expected that the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will increase slightly next week [12] 3. Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the main domestic soybean meal futures contract M2509 is gradually shifting positions. In the short term, there is a lack of obvious driving factors to guide the price. Coupled with the fact that the domestic soybean meal spot supply is abundant, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 may continue the range - bound market. In the future, changes in US soybean planting weather, international trade policies, and domestic supply - demand conditions may be the key factors affecting soybean meal prices [13]
不锈钢期货日报-20250808
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 07:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures rose today, driven by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. However, due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the market is in a wait - and - see state with light trading. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 5, 2025, the price of the stainless - steel ss2509 contract fluctuated upward. It opened near the daily low of 12985 points, then dropped to the daily low of 12920 points, and oscillated within this range throughout the day. The price rose at the end of the session and then fell back to the closing price of 12960 points. Trading volume was high at the opening and before the close, with a daily trading volume of 79826 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern of lower near - term prices and higher far - term prices. Contracts at both ends of the months saw relatively large price increases, while those in the middle months had weak increases. The active contract ss2509 had a position of 85949 lots, a decrease of 1526 lots. Funds entered the stainless - steel variety on that day, and the position of the secondary - leading contract increased by 2863 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basic Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2509 changed significantly, with a maximum of 470 yuan/ton, a minimum of 25 yuan/ton, and 140 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang were 12750 yuan/ton, 12800 yuan/ton, 12700 yuan/ton, and 12800 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of stainless - steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous trading day. The recent change in registered warehouse receipts was small, and the overall warehouse receipt quantity remained at a historical high [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In terms of cost, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore was maintained at 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton. The nickel - iron quotation range moved up slightly, mainly concentrated at 920 - 930 yuan/nickel point. High - cost nickel - iron production lines were mostly in a state of reduction or shutdown. In terms of supply, since July, the stainless - steel price has rebounded, and the steel mills' profits have been significantly repaired. However, the production reduction of steel mills in July was less than expected, and the production schedule in August increased further, so there is still supply pressure. According to Steel Union data, the production schedule of the 300 - series in August is 1.7598 million tons, a 3% month - on - month increase. In terms of inventory, the social inventories in Wuxi and Foshan of stainless - steel have been gradually reduced recently, mainly due to the slowdown of market arrivals and the steel mills' price hikes stimulating purchasing demand. But the terminal demand has not improved significantly, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and the tariff policy has uncertainties for exports [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures rose today, affected by steel mills' price hikes and related variety disk trends. Due to weak downstream demand in the off - season, the wait - and - see sentiment is strong and trading is light. Technically, there is a callback pressure after the price breaks through the 50 - day moving average and the RSI indicator moves from the oversold area to the middle range. In the short term, stainless - steel futures may maintain a volatile trend [10].
大豆现货价格稳中有升:以低位震荡偏强走势为主
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:19
Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A2509 contract price may still trend mainly with a low-level volatile and slightly upward movement [14]. - The spot price of soybeans has been rising steadily in recent days, and the overall profit of enterprise crushing has maintained a stable and rising trend [8][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 6, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE Bean No. 1 futures fluctuated widely, and the daily K - line closed in a doji pattern. The opening price was 4,121 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,146 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4,091 yuan/ton, the closing price was 4,118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous day. The trading volume was 93,189 lots, the open interest was 100,381 lots, and the daily open interest decreased by 6,949 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Increase/Decrease % | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Open Interest Change (lots) | Amplitude % | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,118 | -3 | -0.07% | 93,189 | 100,381 | -6,949 | 1.34% | | A2511 | 4,092 | -8 | -0.20% | 80,926 | 125,634 | -1,863 | 1.29% | | A2601 | 4,095 | -6 | -0.15% | 26,336 | 45,337 | 3,073 | 1.22% | | A2603 | 4,083 | -8 | -0.20% | 4,082 | 24,696 | 451 | 1.15% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today, the basis of Bean No. 1 was -98 yuan/ton, and the basis has been strengthening recently. Today, the total registered warehouse receipts of Bean No. 1 were 13,621 lots, a decrease of 57 lots from the previous trading day [5]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 4,030 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The spot price of soybeans has been rising steadily in recent days. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.7662 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11%. Currently, the inventory accumulation speed of port soybeans has slightly slowed down [6][8]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's arrival - at - port duty - paid prices of near - month imported soybeans showed some differentiation. The near - month arrival - at - port duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4,775.31 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 3,970.92 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3,778.37 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a stable and rising trend [9].
豆粕期货日报-20250808
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:14
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: August 6, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - The price of the soybean meal m2509 futures contract fluctuated within a range today, rising first and then falling. The good weather in the Midwest of the United States has hindered the rise of CBOT soybean futures prices. Although the increase in the import cost of domestic imported soybeans supports the futures price of soybean meal, the fact that the supply of soybean meal currently exceeds demand may cause the price of the m2509 contract to continue to fluctuate and adjust [10]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On August 6, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2509 futures contract rose first and then fell, fluctuating within the day. It closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. The daily K-line closed in a negative line. The full-day trading volume was 945,564 lots, and the open interest was 1,203,970 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Among the 8 contracts of soybean meal futures, prices rose and fell. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,771,882 lots, an increase of 10,102 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract m2509 decreased by 71,233 lots, while the open interest of the m2601 contract increased by 52,856 lots [2]. 4.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: On August 6, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions declined slightly. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,910 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 2,970 yuan, down 30 yuan; in Rizhao, it was 2,890 yuan, down 10 yuan; and in Dongguan, it remained unchanged at 2,910 yuan [5][6]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal in various warehouses remained unchanged, with a total of 10,950 lots [7]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: Brazilian soybean sales in the 2025/26 season reached 16.8% of the expected output, compared with 22.5% in the same period last year; in the 2024/25 season, sales reached 78.4% of the expected output, compared with 82.2% in the same period last year. Today, the import cost of soybeans increased, with US soybeans up 1 yuan/ton, Brazilian soybeans up 10 yuan/ton, and Argentine soybeans up 27 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Basis Data**: A chart of the soybean meal futures basis trend was provided, but specific data was not elaborated [9]. 4.4 Market Outlook - The price of the soybean meal m2509 futures contract is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust due to the good weather in the US Midwest and the current supply - demand imbalance of soybean meal in the domestic market [10].
以低位震荡偏强走势为主
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 11:06
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Beans - Report Type: Daily report on soybean No. 1 futures - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - The main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated, closing with a doji on the daily K - line. The opening price was 4,115 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,134 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4,109 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 65,168 lots, the open interest was 107,330 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -3,096 lots [2]. 2.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Change in Open Interest (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,116 | -10 | -0.24% | 65,168 | 107,330 | -3,096 | 0.61% | | A2511 | 4,102 | -3 | -0.07% | 38,020 | 127,497 | 2,997 | 0.37% | | A2601 | 4,104 | 6 | 0.15% | 13,298 | 42,264 | 2,425 | 0.56% | | A2603 | 4,095 | 6 | 0.15% | 2,072 | 24,245 | 188 | 0.49% | [3] 3. Spot Market - The basis of soybean No. 1 was -96 yuan/ton, continuing to narrow. The total registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 were 13,678 lots, a decrease of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous day, with the price stabilizing and declining in recent days. The inventory of soybeans in major ports was 6.7739 million tons, a decrease of 1.99% from the previous day, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [6][8] 4.2 Industry News - The recent arrival - at - destination duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed a stable - to - rising trend. The recent arrival - at - destination duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,783.13 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,962.21 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,814.33 yuan/ton. The overall crushing profit of enterprises has been showing a stable - to - rising trend recently [9]