Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic palm oil market continues to experience weak supply and demand, with mainly rigid demand for procurement. Port prices continue to show a slight decline. The futures price of the P2505 contract on the futures market is temporarily supported by the 20 - day moving average below, showing a narrow - range oscillation. In the short term, the downward trend of the palm oil futures price may slow down, and it may show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 31, the BMD Malaysian palm oil market was closed for Eid al - Fitr. The continuous palm P2505 contract lacked guidance, with its daily K - line showing a doji star, closing at 9,104 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the settlement price. Trading volume shrank to 784,400 lots, and the open interest was 417,800 lots. The spread between the main soybean and palm oil futures was - 1,112 yuan/ton, and the spread between the main rapeseed and palm oil futures was 260 yuan/ton [3]. - On March 31, the spot prices of palm oil at various ports were reported at 9,660 - 9,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import profit was - 469.83 yuan/ton, and the basis between the average price and P2505 was 310.67 yuan/ton. The spot spread between soybean and palm oil was - 1,349.83 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - According to ITS data, Malaysia's exports in March increased by 0.4%. Exports to China were 54,400 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the same period in February. According to customs data, domestic edible palm oil imports in February were 100,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 210,000 tons, a decrease of 44.9% compared with the same period last year [10]. - Indonesia has raised the palm oil export tax to 4.5% - 10% and increased the export price. It also provides subsidy funds for biodiesel, which drives up costs. The decline in crude oil prices and the speculation of the new US biodiesel policy are also beneficial to Indonesia's B40, but there is no more information on its progress [10]. - As of March 28, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.9855 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (59,700 tons) and an increase of 11.36% (202,500 tons) compared with the same period last year. Among them, the palm oil inventory was 368,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.05% (19,600 tons) and a decrease of 30.39% (161,000 tons) compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is deeply inverted, the market is mainly for rigid demand procurement, the arrival volume is relatively small, the inventory has declined, and the basis has changed slightly [10]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future - The domestic palm oil market will continue to have weak supply and demand. The futures price of the P2505 contract may slow down its downward trend and show a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [12].

镍铁价格稳中有升，铬铁价格企稳，进一步巩固成本端支撑。此外印尼政府计划调 整镍矿特权使用费（PNBP）政策，可能导致镍生产成本上升，为不锈钢价格变动提供 动力。无锡和佛山市场的不锈钢库存呈现季节性小幅下降，但总量仍处于历史高位，上 海期货交易所不锈钢仓单总量维持在 20 万吨左右的高位，套保压力仍存，表示供应过 剩压力尚未完全缓解。4 月不锈钢粗钢排产计划季节性回升，但需求端以刚需为主，终 端消费恢复速度不及预期，供需矛盾持续压制价格上行空间。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 3 二、图文 撰写品种：不锈钢 撰写时间：2025-4-1 回顾周期：日度 研究所：戴小红 咨询证号（Z0000213） 不锈钢日度报告 品种名称：不锈钢 截止 3 月 31 日收市，不锈钢主力合约 SS2505 合约开盘价 13535，最高 13555 点， 最低 13325 点，收于 13365 点、当日下跌 170 点，振幅 1.72%。主力合约成交增加 29571 手至 23.6 万手，持仓量减少 11821 手至 11.8 万手。上期所不 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: March 27, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - Supply reduction and scrap battery costs support lead prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit upward momentum. Short - term lead prices may fluctuate and stabilize. Attention should be paid to imported lead and secondary lead supply [3] Group 3: Analysis by Aspect Macro - aspect - The Trump administration plans to introduce new tariff policies for automobiles on April 2. The US consumer confidence index declined in March, indicating weak economic expectations [3] Spot - aspect - Henan smelters plan to conduct maintenance at the end of March, and environmental inspections in Henan and other places limit production. Coupled with losses in secondary lead smelting profits, overall supply has narrowed [3] Demand - aspect - Lead - acid battery demand remains stable, but downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand [3] Technical - aspect - On the hourly chart, lead prices are still in an upward channel. On the daily chart, they have reached the previous high and the next resistance level, and are still in a multi - empty game [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of the gold market, written on March 27, 2025, with a review period of the same day [1] - The report is titled "Gold Daily: Strong Oscillation at High Levels" [2] Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, the COMEX Gold Futures 04 main contract oscillated, opening at $3025.8 per ounce, reaching a high of $3036.1, a low of $3017.8, and closing at $3026.6, up $0.4 or 0.01% for the day [3] - The Shanghai Gold Futures 2506 main contract continued to rise on Thursday, opening at 709.52 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 711.22, a low of 706.5, and closing at 710.3, up 1.25 yuan or 0.18% for the day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Overnight, the overseas gold market continued to move sideways. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields pressured the gold price, but concerns about new US tariffs kept the price above important integer levels. Safe - haven sentiment still supported gold [4] - Since the beginning of 2025, gold has been very strong. The safe - haven sentiment triggered by the US President's tariff hikes and gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries are the main drivers of the gold price increase [4] - On March 26, the US President signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2. Imported passenger cars, light trucks, and key auto parts are included in the tariff measures [4] - In response to the "reciprocal tariffs" starting on April 2, South Korea launched "origin marking" inspections, and India is willing to cut tariffs on half of US imports worth $23 billion to avoid US "reciprocal tariffs" [5] - There is a divergence within the Fed regarding inflation. Chairman Powell believes the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary, but the President of the St. Louis Reserve Bank is cautious about the view that tariffs won't affect underlying inflation and force the Fed to react [5] - The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook has changed from a "market protector" to a "system stress regulator" [5] Group 4: Market Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised its average gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3300 per ounce, adjusting the forecast range from $3100 - $3300 to $3250 - $3520 [6] - Goldman Sachs believes that major Asian central banks will continue to buy gold in the next 3 - 6 years. Due to increased US policy uncertainty, it has raised the central bank's monthly gold purchase demand from 50 tons to 70 tons [6] - The target gold reserve ratio of countries like China is expected to increase from the current 8% to 20 - 30% [6] - The expectation of Fed rate cuts due to an economic recession will push the gold price to $3410 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - The safe - haven demand of investors will push the ETF holdings to the level during the COVID - 19 pandemic, supporting the gold price to reach $3680 per ounce by the end of 2025. In extreme risk scenarios, the gold price may exceed $4200 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - The market is waiting for the US PCE price data to be released on Friday to gain insights into the US economic trend and the Fed's future monetary policy [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported variety: Shanghai Aluminum [1] - Writing time: March 27, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Report title: Shanghai Aluminum Daily Report [2] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed a volatile upward trend today, with increased trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The al2505 contract had an open interest of 211,849 lots, a trading volume of 178,164 lots, and a gain of 0.56% [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Uncertainty in US trade policy has intensified. The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on imported cars on April 2, and plans to further expand the scope of reciprocal tariffs. The market is worried that the escalation of US trade frictions may drag down economic growth and push up inflation [3] - China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the inclusion of the aluminum smelting industry in the national carbon trading market, adding 1,500 key emission units, which may push up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in the medium to long term [3] Group 4: Spot Market Conditions - In the East China market, the mainstream transaction price was 20,670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot discount narrowed to -10 yuan/ton. The South China market was weak, with a transaction price of 20,660 yuan/ton in Guangdong, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2505 main contract broke through the middle track line of the Bollinger Bands (boll) during the day, and the MACD indicator showed a signal of a pullback and rebound. The short - term aluminum price will continue to maintain a volatile and strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff disturbances and data indicating lower - than - expected demand [3]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Economic and geopolitical uncertainties still exist. Pay attention to geopolitical situations and the subsequent trends of US tariffs. Precious metals perform strongly in a stagflationary or even recessionary economic environment. The report continues to be optimistic about the performance of silver prices [3] Group 3 Price - The opening price of the main contract of Shanghai Silver was 8387 yuan/kg, the highest price was 8390 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 8372 yuan/kg [3] Spot - The spot silver price was 33.68 US dollars, with a change of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day and a change rate of 0.12% [3] Macro - The White House Press Secretary said that the US military actions against the Houthi rebels would continue. The US launched large - scale military operations against the Houthi rebels on the 15th of this month, and the Houthi rebels counterattacked. The United Nations and many countries called on both sides to stop the attacks and resolve the crisis through dialogue [3]

总体来看，供给端弹性有限，需求有向好预期，短期价格区间内偏强震荡运行。 宏观方面，美国 3 月服务业活动指数跌至 2020 年 5 月以来最低水平，消费者信心 指数连续第四个月下滑，经济数据疲软，市场对滞胀预期升温。中国政策加码稳增长, 财政部强调 2025 年财政政策将更积极，扩大政府债券规模以支持内需，叠加"提振消 费专项行动方案"落地，市场对铝下游消费预期有所提振。 现货方面，华东市场主流成交价 20650 元/吨（贴水 10 元/吨），华南市场报价 20640 元/吨，持货商积极出货，下游逢低采购意愿增强，交投氛围回暖。国内铝锭社 会库存降至 83.3 万吨，创近五年同期最低位，周度去库约 0.7 万吨，旺季效应逐步显 现。 技术方面，沪铝 2505 合约维持布林带 BOLL 下轨区间运行，MACD 指标均衡，成交 量略微放大，持仓量有所下降，继续关注区间内的运行。 撰写品种：沪铝 撰写时间 2025 年 03 月 26 日 星期三 回顾周期；日度 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z00 ...