Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]

成文日期：20251010 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:' 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799） 新贸日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 10 月 9 日期货品种锰硅 SM2601 合约呈现震荡态势。日盘开于 5766 元/ 吨,最高价 5778 元 / 吨,最低价 5730 元 / 吨,收盘价为 5768 元/吨，结算价为 5756 元/ 吨，收盘价较前一交易日下跌 12 元 /吨。全日成交量为 153351 手，持仓量为 363849 手。 图 1：锰硅 SM2601 分时图 1.2 品种价格 期货 12 个合约,价格呈现近低远高的正向市场格局。品种持仓 5/10/09 星期四 PageUp/PageDown日期切换 均价5756 11:30 数据来源：同花顺期货通 量 528306 手,较上一交易日增加 45649 手, 其中活跃合约锰硅 SM2601，持仓量增加 15558 手。 图 2：锰硅期货日行情表 | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 島低价 | 令收當 | 令结算 | 涨跌 | 张跌2 | 成交早 | 持仓量 | 増減量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term demand for stocking during the Double Festival can digest the current supply, and the price of the main apple futures ap2601 contract may remain strong in the short term [15][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 30, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8617 points, up 1.22% from the previous day. The full - day trading volume was 97,524 lots, and the open interest was 102,381 lots, a decrease of 5,415 lots from the previous trading day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All apple futures contracts rose, with a trading volume of 108,457 lots and an open interest of 111,461 lots, a decrease of 9,133 lots from the previous trading day [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Apple options had a full - day trading volume of 12,045 lots, a total open interest of 18,639 lots, an increase of 606 lots, and 0 lots exercised on the day [8] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - The spot price of apples was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,577 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 977 yuan/ton [9][10] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - In the western region, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples has been carried out one after another, the early - maturing Fuji apples have basically ended, and other mid - maturing varieties are being traded normally. In the Shandong production area, some Red Generals have entered the late stage, and small - vehicle merchants prefer the Red General apples with lower prices. The inventory of old Fuji apples is affected by other apple varieties, and the trading is slow [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - On September 30, the K - line of apple futures was a solid positive line, indicating that the bulls had the upper hand on that day [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - From the demand side, the stocking for the Double Festival has brought short - term incremental demand. The terminal gift - box procurement and the stocking in the wholesale market have gradually started, and the daily arrival volume of the three major wholesale markets in Guangdong has increased month - on - month. The willingness to purchase high - quality fruits is relatively strong. From a technical perspective, the moving averages are in a long - position combination, and the price of the main apple futures ap2601 contract may remain strong in the short term [15][16]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Research Variety: Synthetic Rubber 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber market is expected to enter an oversupply cycle as supply growth far exceeds demand growth. The short - term synthetic rubber futures may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene unit maintenance progress, crude oil price fluctuations, EU anti - dumping investigation results, and tire export data [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 30, 2025, synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and declined. For the BR2511 contract, the opening price was 11,325 yuan/ton, the highest was 11,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,100 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,100 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.64% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 110,000 lots, a decrease of 47,800 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 33,200 lots, a decrease of 5,336 lots from the previous day [2] - **Variety Price**: The report provides the opening, highest, lowest, latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of some synthetic rubber contracts on September 30, 2025 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - In the Shanghai market, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies such as Hushan Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. were provided on September 30, with no price changes [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The price of butadiene may continue to be weak, and the upward space of crude oil prices is limited under the medium - and long - term supply - demand loosening expectation. The cost support for synthetic rubber will be further weakened [5] - **Policy and Market Dynamics**: On September 30, most quotes in Thailand's three major central rubber markets were flat or down [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Projects of Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) and Fushun Petrochemical (160,000 tons) will be put into production in the fourth quarter. The total production capacity is expected to reach 7.627 million tons by the end of the year, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The market will enter an oversupply cycle, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure is difficult to be substantially alleviated [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Research Variety: Live Hogs [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - After the National Day holiday, the prices of live hog futures and spot have weakened synchronously. The short - term bearish sentiment remains dominant, and the price of the lh2511 contract of live hog futures is likely to continue a low - level, volatile, and weak trend [15] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On October 9, 2025, the lh2511 contract of live hog futures opened and closed lower, closing at 11,595 points, a 5.88% drop from the previous trading day. The daily trading volume was 50,900 lots, and the open interest was 58,300 lots [2] - **Variety Prices**: All contracts of live hog futures declined. The total open interest of the variety was 258,813 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots from the previous trading day [4] - **Related Quotes**: The daily trading volume of live hog options was 48,658 lots, the total open interest was 67,393 lots (an increase of 5,694 lots), and the total number of exercised options on the day was 503 lots [7] 4.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The basis of live hogs on the previous trading day was - 130 yuan/ton, and today it is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a strengthening basis [8][9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the number of registered warehouse receipts today is 0 lots, with no change from the previous trading day [10] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In September, large - scale enterprises faced significant pressure to sell their hogs, and the market supply exceeded demand. Many enterprises failed to meet their targets, and some postponed sales to October. Based on production cycles and previous piglet stocking, the planned hog sales volume of large - scale enterprises in October increased compared to the actual sales volume in September. The average daily planned sales volume increased month - on - month. The planned hog sales volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in October was 13.3933 million heads, a 5.48% month - on - month increase. The increase in Shanxi was the most significant, exceeding 16% [11] - **Technical Analysis**: All short - term, medium - term, and long - term moving averages of the lh2511 contract of live hog futures are in a bearish arrangement. The closing price today is far below all moving averages, indicating that the bears are currently in control [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current Shanghai tin market is in a situation where macro factors are mixed. The long - term logic of tight supply and demand remains unchanged, but in the short term, due to weak demand before the National Day holiday, profit - taking by funds, and risk - aversion sentiment from trade frictions, the upside potential of prices is limited [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Price - The total trading volume of 12 Shanghai tin futures contracts is 84,373 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai tin contracts is 52,516 lots. Among them, the open interest of the Shanghai tin contract 2511 is 46,590 lots [6][7] - The closing price of the Shanghai tin 2511 contract today is 272,410 yuan/ton, the mainstream market quotation on the day is 271,400 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 1,010 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Influencing Factors - Supply side: The long - term logic of tight global tin ore supply remains unchanged, but in the short term, the tin inventory on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has slightly accumulated. On September 26, the inventory increased by 35 tons to 2,775 tons compared with the previous day. The inventory change has put some pressure on the spot price and weakened the premium power on the spot side [10] - Demand side: As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises' stockpiling is coming to an end. The demand in traditional industries such as tin - plated sheets is approaching saturation, and the "new quality requirements" driven by AI and new energy have not yet formed short - term upward - pulling power. The light trading in the spot market has made it difficult for the spot price to rise and keep up with the fluctuating futures price [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The gold market is still digesting the previous interest - rate cut by the Fed. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October has slightly decreased after Fed officials' communication with the market, causing the gold price to move sideways at a high level or show a weak trend recently [8]. - The current gold trend is still very strong. The RSI indicator shows that the over - bought level of the outer - market gold monthly line has reached the highest in nearly 50 years. There is a short - term risk of over - bought correction, but in the long term, it indicates a continuous bullish momentum [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Outer - market and SHFE Futures Market Situation - On Wednesday, COMEX gold futures fluctuated at a high level. On Thursday (20250925), SHFE gold fell from a high. The main 2512 contract closed at 854.72 yuan/gram, down 5.28 yuan/gram or 0.61% from the previous trading day's closing price. Fed officials' continuous and intensive speeches and communication with the market have led to gold maintaining a high - level oscillation [1]. - The trading data of SHFE gold futures contracts of different delivery months on 20250925 are presented, including pre - settlement, opening price, high, low, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, turnover, and open interest and its changes. The total trading volume is 408,591 lots, and the total turnover is 34,987,381.12 ten - thousand yuan. The total open interest is 461,083 lots, with a decrease of 2,067 lots [6]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the Fed's interest - rate policy decision last week and believes further rate cuts may be necessary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns against excessive early rate cuts and says the US job market remains stable and solid [8]. - After the Fed officials' communication with the market, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October has slightly decreased, resulting in the recent high - level sideways or weak trend of the gold price. The market is still digesting the Fed's rate cut last week [8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The gold market currently focuses on the Fed's rate - cut move in October. The market is closely watching financial market data related to rate cuts and officials' speeches, especially the US PCE price index on Friday. An unexpected rise in inflation will boost the US dollar and suppress the gold price [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 25, the manganese silicon futures main contract closed higher. The fundamentals show characteristics of "high supply and weak demand." Steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling supports short - term demand, but terminal building material demand is weak, inventory pressure remains, and with the resumption of production in Guizhou, the risk of medium - to - long - term supply surplus intensifies. Technically, the price is oscillating in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton, with balanced long - and short - term forces. In the short term, it lacks an independent driver and is likely to follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings in October and the demand callback risk after steel mills finish restocking [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5,916 yuan/ton, with a high of 5,954 yuan/ton, a low of 5,856 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,938 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,803 lots, and the open interest was 332,429 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 510,416 lots, a decrease of 18,713 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,344 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract was 27,339 contracts, and that of put options was 23,120 contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.846 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 25, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 88 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 25, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 59,475, a decrease of 539 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On September 25, the manganese ore market oscillated. In Tianjin Port, semi - carbonate was traded at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron ore was about 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese ore was about 40 yuan/ton degree. Low - price supplies were hard to find. The price of Australian lump ore was in the range of 39.5 - 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with firm quotes and pending transactions. In Qinzhou Port, the spot price of manganese ore was consolidating. The available inventory of semi - carbonate was low, with a price around 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian seeds at 35.5 - 36 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump ore at 39 - 41 yuan/ton degree, and South African high - iron ore at 30.5 yuan/ton degree [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 25, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, indicating short - term support below but also obvious upward resistance. The price has been running in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the past half - month, currently at the central position, and a strong driver is needed for a breakthrough [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 25, 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures rose slightly by 0.25%. The current fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. Stable steel - mill production supports demand, but accumulated contradictions and high inventory in the downstream steel market suppress the upward space. Coupled with the lack of clear trend guidance in technical aspects, the short - term price is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 25, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated. It adjusted to a minimum of 799.5 points, reached a maximum of 808 points, and closed at 805.5 points. The trading volume was 191,200 lots, a decrease of 11,200 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 529,700 lots, a decrease of 9,319 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 contracts of iron ore futures showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term strength and far - term weakness. All contracts generally rose throughout the day, with an increase ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 points. The total open interest of the variety was 848,687 lots, a decrease of 8,028 lots from the previous trading day, and the i2601 contract had the largest decrease in open interest, with a reduction of 9,319 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main contract iron ore i2601 fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 27.2 yuan/ton, a minimum of 24.8 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton on the day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 2,000 lots, a minimum of 1,700 lots, and 2,000 lots on the day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In the Shandong market, the spot price of imported iron ore rose slightly, but the trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed, with a general market trading atmosphere. In the Tianjin market, the price of imported iron ore fluctuated slightly. The price difference between PB powder and lump ore shrank by 10 yuan/wet ton to 132 yuan/wet ton. Steel mills' procurement sentiment was cautious, and they mainly purchased on dips [9]. - **Supply Side**: The sinter production of 54 steel mills nationwide decreased, but the total inventory of imported sinter powder increased month - on - month, indicating overall stable supply. The inventory at Shandong ports increased slightly, and the port throughput decreased due to seasonal factors. However, the medium - grade powder resources at Tianjin Port decreased, and high - grade powder was supplemented, showing a differentiated supply structure [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has a significant impact on global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Event Review and Background - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, causing 2 deaths and 5 missing, and the mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - In 2024, the daily output of copper concentrate at the Grasberg mine was 208,365 tons, with the GBC mine accounting for 64% (about 133,800 tons), the DMLZ mine accounting for 32% (about 64,900 tons), and the Big Gossan mine accounting for 4% (about 8,000 tons) [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company. The Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the rest is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [2][3] 2. Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - The impact on Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales is not significant. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to July, but it is still estimated to be 433,592 tons due to inventory [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart in mid - fourth quarter of 2025 (November). The GBC mine will start phased restart and capacity increase in the first half of 2026 [5] - Freeport Indonesia's copper sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be negligible, estimated at 20,184 metric tons [5] - The GBC mine's PB2 and PB3 production blocks will restart and increase production in the first half of 2026, PB1S of PB1C will start in the second half of 2026, and the rest of PB1C will restart in 2027 [5] - In the phased restart scenario, the estimated copper production in 2026 is 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3. Market Outlook - After Freeport announced force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and long - lasting [7]