Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Self-powdered sugar - Report Type: Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Falin [1] 2. Core View - The domestic spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse continues to be weak, and the main contract of the foreign ICE raw sugar futures shows a weak trend, providing limited support for the white sugar futures price. In the short term, the price of the main white sugar futures contract (SR601) may continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures (SR601) fluctuated weakly throughout the day, closing at 5,444 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day. The trading volume was 222,211 lots, and the open interest was 474,011 lots, with an increase of 17,181 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) were 290,664 lots, with a long position difference of 9,326 lots, while the total short positions were 367,312 lots, with a short position difference of 17,733 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Different contracts showed different price changes. SR511 rose 0.18%, SR601 fell 0.31%, SR603 fell 0.48%, and SR605 fell 0.57% [3]. - **Options Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options was 94,954 lots, with 53,697 lots for call options and 41,257 lots for put options. The open interest was 294,905 lots, with 189,011 lots for call options and 105,894 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.5603 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotes**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 10,022, a decrease of 293 from the previous trading day [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On September 22, the main contract of ICE raw sugar opened at 16.15 cents/pound, reached a high of 16.29 cents/pound, a low of 15.84 cents/pound, and closed at 15.85 cents/pound, down 0.29 cents/pound or 1.80% from the previous day. The open interest was 454,796 lots, with an increase of 2,782 lots [12]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of white sugar was 456 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has had a significant impact on the global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1) Event Review and Background Statement - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, resulting in two deaths and five missing. The mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has three underground mining areas in operation. In 2024, the daily production of copper concentrate was 208,365 tons, with the GBC area accounting for 64% [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA [2] - Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary, PT Freeport Indonesia, holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the remaining equity is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [3] 2) Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mining area stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales were not significantly affected. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to the July estimate, but copper concentrate inventory can temporarily make up for it [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart operations in mid - Q4 2025, while the phased restart and capacity increase of the GBC mine will begin in the first half of 2026 [5] - The company believes that copper sales in Q4 2025 will be negligible, at 44.5 million pounds (20,184 metric tons) [5] - The GBC mining area will restart and increase production in phases. It will not return to the pre - incident estimated level until 2027 [5] - In the scenario of phased restart and capacity increase, Freeport Indonesia estimates that copper production in 2026 will be 65% of 1.7 billion pounds, i.e., 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3) Market Outlook - Affected by the announcement of force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine, the copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly last night. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and will not disappear quickly [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the manganese silicon futures showed a volatile upward trend. Fundamentally, the recovery of hot metal production drives demand, and the relatively stable cost of manganese ore provides support. However, the pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of funds suppresses the market volatility. Technically, the price is in a low - level volatile range, with balanced long and short forces. In the short term, it may continue to consolidate in the range of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton. In the long term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand pattern after the peak season and the risk of cost reduction [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5890 yuan/ton, with a high of 5948 yuan/ton, a low of 5868 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5916 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 169,412 lots, and the open interest was 333,773 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 529,129 lots, a decrease of 9,301 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,401 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract of manganese silicon was 27,387 contracts, and the open interest of put options was 22,849 contracts, with a PCR of 0.834 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 24, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 66 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 24, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 60,014, an increase of 517 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: In the Ningxia region, the overall start - up is stable, with only a few producers reducing production due to profit factors. The pre - holiday manganese ore stocking has basically ended. Some manufacturers have slightly higher inventory but still within the normal range, while most are in the order - delivery stage with low inventory. A ferrosilicon furnace in this region plans to switch to high - silicon product production this week. In the Inner Mongolia region, the manganese silicon production is running smoothly, and the started enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. In the spot market, the inventory remains low, and the current order schedule extends to mid - October. The manganese silicon production in the southern region is showing a recovery trend, with some factories restarting two ore - heating furnaces and planning to gradually increase production to full capacity [9][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 24, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a positive line. The 5 - day moving average and the 10 - day moving average were intertwined, indicating a balance between long and short forces without a clear trend. The intraday price failed to break through the resistance level of 5950 yuan/ton and closed at 5916 yuan/ton. The support level below can be focused on around 5800 yuan/ton. There are still differences in the market, and a breakthrough signal is needed to confirm the direction [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend. Recent geopolitical disturbances have provided support through geopolitical premiums, but the expected increase in Middle - East production has limited the upside potential of oil prices. Overall, despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil is supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,796 yuan/ton this week, up 79 yuan/ton or 2.91% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,848 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,766 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,551,108 lots and an open interest of 221,820 lots, a decrease of 8,617 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed an inverse market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market was weak this week. The current basis level was in the lower range of recent months, indicating greater price pressure in the spot market compared to the futures market. The current spot market supply is very loose, and sellers are willing to sell at prices lower than the futures price [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, 2025, the total fuel oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 127,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. All these warehouse receipts were in bonded warehouses [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors The fuel oil benchmark price was 5,450 yuan/ton, up nearly 1.2% compared to the beginning of the month. The 380CST fuel oil benchmark price was 438 US dollars/ton, up 0.9% compared to the beginning of the month [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook Overall, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend in the game between crude oil cost drivers and its own fundamentals. High basis and geopolitical premiums were the main features of the market. Despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil was supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums, with relatively limited decline. The significant decline in inventories in Singapore and Fujairah provided some support, but the expected increase in Middle - East production and weak global demand limited the upside potential. In the future, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, Fed monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

本周烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,截至本周五收盘,主力合约烧碱 2601 (SH101) 周度上涨 81 元/吨,收盘至 2641 元/吨,涨幅为 3.16%，最高价 2657 元/吨，最低价 2548 元/吨，持仓 11.4 万手, 较上周减少 4712 手。成交量较上周增加 31.6 万手至 185.2 万手。 图 1:烧碱主连日 K 线 1.2 品种行情 成文日期：20250921 报告周期:周度 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货周报： 延续下行 核心观点： 当周 (20250915-0919) 烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,周涨幅 3.16%。下周随着检修装置逐渐恢复,预计开工率将有所上升。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 从烧碱期货周度行情来看,除近月 SH510 合约下跌外,其他合 约整体上行，主力合约 SH601 持仓量有所减少。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 表 1: 烧碱期货行情表(20250915-20250919) | ...

成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The industrial silicon futures price may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, supported by the cost side and market expectations of supply contraction. However, the upside space may be limited due to high inventory levels and limited improvement in demand, as well as potential under - performance of supply - side production cuts [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose significantly, with a trading volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 weakened. The price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 was 9,100 yuan/ton on the day, and the basis was - 205 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, showing a slowdown after consecutive weeks of growth. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, with the operating rate increasing by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 2,135 tons [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the industrial silicon main 2511 contract closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent trading range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator formed a golden cross above the zero - axis, indicating an increase in short - term bullish power. However, the price is approaching the resistance level of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and further upward movement requires continuous volume support and effective breakthrough of this resistance area [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook The short - term trend of industrial silicon futures prices may be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside space may be limited if supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weakening capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, yet macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 19, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,328 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 331,651 lots and an open interest of 571,426 lots, a decrease of 3,418 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 378,156 lots, and the total open interest was 820,566 lots, a decrease of 3,207 lots compared to the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 40,410 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 110,114 lots, an increase of 2,676 lots in open interest, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,560 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,336 yuan/ton, with a basis of 224 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 18, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 4,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 3,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures closed higher in an oscillating manner, but the reduction in positions of the main contract while prices rose indicates weak capital enthusiasm for chasing high prices and limited rebound momentum. The high basis in the spot market provides bottom - support, while macro factors such as crude oil price fluctuations and domestic oil inventory pressure restrict the upside potential. As the traditional consumption peak season in the fourth quarter approaches, the strength of demand recovery will be the key driver. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to continue to trade within a range, and attention should be paid to capital movements and the process of spot inventory reduction [10].

Report Overview - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Date: September 21, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the domestic urea spot market continued to decline. The market had sufficient supply, rising social inventories, and persistent supply - demand pressure. Low - price transactions dominated the market [2] Section Summaries 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - From September 15 - 21, 2025, urea futures contracts had similar prices with small overall spreads, showing a volatile trend. UR510 closed at 1,570 yuan/ton, opened at 1,586 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,608 yuan/ton, a low of 1,567 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.76%, trading volume of 6,745 lots, and an open interest of 5,219 lots. UR601 closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, opened at 1,666 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,704 yuan/ton, a low of 1,656 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 615,000 lots, and an open interest of 297,000 lots [3] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 19, according to Steel Union data, small - granular urea in East China's Hualu Hengsheng was priced at 1,650 yuan/ton (basis - 11 yuan/ton), in Central China's Henan Xinlianxin at 1,660 yuan/ton (basis - 1 yuan/ton), and in Northwest China's Ningxia Petrochemical at 1,530 yuan/ton (basis - 131 yuan/ton), reflecting local demand differences with mild overall fluctuations [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of September 19, 2025, according to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, there were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, a slight increase from last week, indicating a short - term market in a wait - and - see equilibrium [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - Supply: The urea industry is expected to achieve a net new capacity of nearly 4 million tons this year, with a capacity growth rate exceeding 4%. Coal prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Coal - based urea production maintains some profit, while natural - gas - based urea is in a loss state. If the loss persists, the operating rate of gas - based plants may decline slightly. The annual output growth is expected to be around 5% - 6%, but if the spot price drops further, the operating rate may adjust negatively, and the output growth rate may fall to 1% - 2% [10] - Demand: Traders are gradually picking up goods for export, reducing the possibility of a significant short - term inventory build - up. Although the pressure of pending orders and inventory has increased, leading to a decline in spot quotes, the market may experience a phased recovery as export channels gradually expand. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the industry fundamentals are expected to face pressure in the second half of the year [11] - Policy: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024 [11] 4. Market Outlook - This year, urea capacity is expected to grow by over 4%, and the output growth rate is about 5% - 6%, but falling prices may suppress the operating rate. On the demand side, export orders support inventory, while weakening agricultural demand pressures the market in the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve starting an interest - rate cut cycle, the macro - environment is becoming more accommodative. The urea market may have a short - term phased rebound, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals remain under pressure. Future attention should be paid to changes in the operating rate and export policies [14][15]