Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Domestic refined nickel supply is ample, with continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports. On the demand side, the stainless - steel industry's demand is weak due to the sluggish real - estate market, and export tariff policies further suppress demand. In the short term, the fundamentals are unlikely to change significantly, and the price of Shanghai nickel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance - On July 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract 2508 was 119,700 yuan/ton, the highest price during the session was 120,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 119,270 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton or 0.6% [2] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Trading Volume | Amplitude % | Open Interest | Daily Increase in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel 2508 | 119,880 | -720 | -0.60 | 85,829 | 0.75 | 53,426 | -702 | | Shanghai Nickel 2509 | 119,970 | -740 | -0.61 | 56,494 | 0.74 | 74,948 | 3147 | [5] 1.3 Spot Market Data - On July 17, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,500 yuan/ton, down 1600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of imported nickel was 119,800 yuan/ton, down 1650 yuan/ton [6] Influence Factor Analysis - News: In June, the US PPI year - on - year dropped to 2.3% (lower than expected), and Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in July. The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.49% to 98.77, exerting slight pressure on non - ferrous metals. - Supply: The rainy season in the Philippines has intensified the shortage of nickel ore, but imported ore from Indonesia has filled the gap, and ore prices have slightly declined. In July, the domestic refined nickel production plan increased by 1.25% month - on - month to 32,000 tons, with supply remaining at a high level. - Demand: Affected by the sluggish real - estate market, the overall demand of the stainless - steel industry is weak, with high inventory. Steel mills have low willingness to purchase nickel - iron. The export tariff policy has further suppressed the export demand of stainless - steel products, affecting the overall market performance [9]

Group 1 - The price of SHFE Gold weighted is 782.06, with a change of 8.10 and a change rate of 1.05%. The trading volume is 330,985 lots, and the open interest is 397,647 lots. The highest price is 782.08, the lowest price is 776.80 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold main - continuous contract is 781.40, with a change of 8.22 and a change rate of 1.06%. The trading volume is 249,578 lots, and the open interest is 191,083 lots. The highest price is 781.46, the lowest price is 776.24 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2507 contract is 778.50, with a change of 8.02 and a change rate of 1.04%. The trading volume is 18 lots, and the open interest is 879 lots. The highest price is 778.50, the lowest price is 774.16 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2508 contract is 778.98, with a change of 7.64 and a change rate of 0.99%. The trading volume is 44,116 lots, and the open interest is 62,625 lots. The highest price is 779.00, the lowest price is 773.80 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2509 contract is 779.96, with a change of 7.34 and a change rate of 0.95%. The trading volume is 389 lots, and the open interest is 8,848 lots. The highest price is 780.24, the lowest price is 775.28 [5] - The price of SHFE Gold 2510 contract is 781.40, with a change of 8.22 and a change rate of 1.06%. The trading volume is 249,578 lots, and the open interest is 191,083 lots. The highest price is 781.46, the lowest price is 776.24 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Natural rubber lacks a persistent upward driving force. It may maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short - term but remains weak in the long - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Supply - related Information** - In Hainan, China, the recent weather has improved, and rubber tapping work is proceeding normally. However, the daily rubber collection volume is about [a specific amount not given in the text] tons, which is lower than the same period last year [9][12] - Recently, rainfall interference in the upstream production areas has decreased, resulting in an increase in output [12] - **Market Conditions** - The recent macro - sentiment is positive. But demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate [12]

Group 1 - Two percentages are provided: 50% and 17% [2]

Since there is no specific content provided in the "Content" section, no key points can be summarized. Please provide the actual research report content for further analysis.

Group 1: Market Overview and Quotes Review - The alumina futures market showed a slight upward trend on July 7, 2025. The main contract 2509 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change of 0.20% compared to the settlement price. The trading volume was 341,853 lots, and the open interest was 252,718 lots. The trading volume of the 2509 contract increased, while the open interest decreased [2]. - The table shows the futures quotes of alumina contracts on July 7, 2025. For the alumina 2509 contract, the closing price was 3042, up 18 with a 0.20% increase, trading volume was 341,853, amplitude was 3.26%, open interest was 252,718, and the daily increase in open interest was -14,833. For the alumina 2510 contract, the closing price was 3012, up 15 with a 0.10% increase, trading volume was 37,053, amplitude was 2.43%, open interest was 73,292, and the daily increase in open interest was 2,098 [6]. Group 2: Analysis of Influencing Factors - The progress of alumina production is steadily advancing, and some previously overhauled production capacities have resumed production, keeping the operating capacity at a high level. On the cost side, although the price of bauxite has loosened to some extent, the range is limited, and the energy cost is relatively stable. Enterprises' production enthusiasm is fair, and there are no large - scale production cut plans [10]. - The current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high and stable, with no large - scale new production capacity investment plans, and the demand for alumina remains stable. However, recently, the operating rates of some small electrolytic aluminum enterprises have fluctuated due to environmental inspections or equipment maintenance, which has affected the procurement rhythm of alumina to some extent [10]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the overall supply - demand pattern of the alumina market is still relatively loose. In the short term, influenced by cost support and bullish signals in technical aspects, the price has some rebound momentum. In the long - term, as new production capacities continue to be released, if there is no significant improvement in the demand side, the price will still face downward pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in the macro - economic situation, supply - demand data, and technical indicator trends and operate cautiously [11].

Group 1 - Research variety: Crude oil [1] - Report cycle: Weekly [1] - Reported contents: Spot analysis, influencing factors analysis [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, in the context of the strengthening of the cotton spot price, the price of the cotton 2509 contract may continue the trend of fluctuating and strengthening. It is necessary to closely monitor the support of the 5 - day moving average in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Overall Market Performance on the Day** - On July 2, 2025, the opening price of the main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures was 13,730 yuan/ton. The price showed a fluctuating and strengthening pattern during the day, with an intraday peak of 13,850 yuan/ton and an intraday low of 13,720 yuan/ton. It finally closed at 13,805 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume for the whole day was 182,581 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,771 lots, and the total open interest reached 560,465 lots [2]. - The trading volume of cotton options on that day was 95,770 lots, and the total open interest reached 360,536 lots, an increase of 7,129 lots compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - For contract CF2507, the closing price was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.63%, with a trading volume of 1,081 lots, an amplitude of 0.67%, an open interest of 18,553 lots, and a daily decrease of 98 lots. - For contract CF2509, the closing price was 13,805 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 182,581 lots, an amplitude of 0.95%, an open interest of 560,465 lots, and a daily decrease of 2,771 lots. - For contract CF2601, the closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 53,324 lots, an amplitude of 0.98%, an open interest of 193,520 lots, and a daily increase of 2,882 lots [5]. - **1.3 Spot Market Data** - According to the monitoring data of the Cotlook M Index on July 2, the average arrival price of imported cotton was 75.54 cents/pound, down 0.18 cents/pound from July 1. After conversion, the import cost was 13,156 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff and 14,003 yuan/ton under the sliding - scale tariff [5]. - The domestic CC Index 3128B closed at 15,089 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 1. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at Shandong warehouses (Grade 3128B) was currently quoted at 15,180 yuan/ton, also up 40 yuan/ton from July 1. The national cotton basis index CNCottonJ (CF2509) was quoted at 1,038 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from July 1 [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Analysis of the Open Interest of the Main Contract**: Among the top 20 seats of the main contract, the top three long - position increasing seats were CITIC Futures with a position of 85,574 lots and an increase of 3,044 lots, Dongzheng Futures with a position of 21,992 lots and an increase of 1,483 lots, and Founder CIFCO with a position of 14,683 lots and an increase of 291 lots. The top three long - position decreasing seats were Galaxy Futures with a position of 13,958 lots and a decrease of 4,008 lots, COFCO Futures with a position of 26,882 lots and a decrease of 2,011 lots, and Shenyin Wanguo with a position of 11,308 lots and a decrease of 1,212 lots [8]. - Among the top 20 seats of the main contract, the top three short - position increasing seats were Green大华 Futures with a position of 8,408 lots and an increase of 553 lots, Guotai Junan with a position of 25,157 lots and an increase of 270 lots, and Huatai Futures with a position of 10,568 lots and an increase of 263 lots. The top three short - position decreasing seats were COFCO Futures with a position of 53,340 lots and a decrease of 1,487 lots, Shenyin Wanguo with a position of 7,943 lots and a decrease of 1,251 lots, and Yong'an Futures with a position of 34,039 lots and a decrease of 596 lots [8].

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研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20250701 研究品种:碳酸锌 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期: 日度 理期货目报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20250701）碳酸锂期货市场呈现先抑后扬走势。主力合 约 2509，收于 62780 元/吨，较昨天结算价上涨 100 元/吨，涨幅为 0.16%。成交量为 39.83 万手；持仓量为 32.67 万手，较昨日减少 4148 手。现货市场价格滞后期货市场,碳酸锂市场交投有所减弱。 图 1：碳酸锂主力合约分时图走势 图片 来源：国金期货-博易云 Li₂CO₃≥99.5% 61300 / Li₂CO₃≥99.2% 59700 / CIF6 625 / 5 / CIF /5.5%-6.2% 625 / CIF /5.5%-6.2% 620 / 2.1 3. 结论与展望 综合而言,若供应端无明显减产,需求端无重大利好刺激等, 碳酸锂价格仍将维持弱势震荡格局。 ...