Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the two "boots" of the US copper tariff increase landed, causing the COMEX copper price to plummet, and the London and Shanghai copper prices also declined successively. After the tariff increase, over 600,000 tons of copper previously stored in the US re - entered the market, putting short - term pressure on copper prices [1] - Fundamental factors will lead to a short - term decline in copper prices, but copper is a tight - balance variety, and the price decline will be very unsmooth and may even be repeated. Later, attention should be paid to the comprehensive impact of the final implementation of the US tariff increase policy and the Fed's interest rate cut on copper prices [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Review - In July, the copper market experienced two major unexpected events. On July 9, Trump suddenly announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, and on July 31, he announced details of the copper tariff increase, exempting copper concentrates, scrap copper, copper lead, and cathode copper from the 50% tariff and only imposing it on intermediate processed products and some final finished products. These two events greatly changed market expectations and led to a sharp drop in the COMEX copper price [2] - In July, the COMEX December 2025 main contract closed at $4.5010 per pound, down $0.6760 per pound or 13.06% from the June closing price. The price once reached a record high of $6.0215 per pound ($13,275 per ton). The LME copper 3 - month electronic contract closed at $9,607 per ton in July, down $271 per ton or 2.74%. The Shanghai copper main contract 2509 closed at 78,040 yuan per ton, down 1,640 yuan per ton or 2.06% [3] - The table shows the monthly market conditions of SHFE copper, including opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, price changes, positions, position changes, settlement prices, trading volumes, and trading amounts for different delivery months [7]

Market Conditions Futures Market - The main continuous contract of DCE Soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated within a narrow range today, closing at 4117 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 111,267 lots and an open interest of 110,426 lots, a decrease of 10,173 lots [2]. - The closing prices of A2509, A2511, A2601, and A2603 contracts were 4117 yuan/ton, 4101 yuan/ton, 4095 yuan/ton, and 4084 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.15% respectively [3]. Spot Market - Today's basis of Soybean No. 1 was -97 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to narrow. The total number of registered warehouse receipts for Soybean No. 1 was 13,688 lots, an increase of 286 lots from the previous trading day [5]. Influencing Factors Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4011 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day, and the spot price of soybeans has fluctuated up and down in recent days. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.9117 million tons, up 0.81% from the previous day, and the port soybean inventory continued to accumulate [7][9]. Industry News - The decline of the near - month landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans has slowed down, and the price has stabilized with a slight increase. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4755.44 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3762.30 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall profit of enterprise crushing has maintained a stable and rising trend [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the palm oil p2509 futures contract showed a slight increase on August 1, 2025, but the short - term price may be weak and volatile. Future trends need to be observed in terms of main position changes, production area data during the production - increasing season, market consumption performance, and policy guidance [2][22] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 1, 2025, the palm oil p2509 futures contract opened lower and fluctuated, with three rallies followed by declines, closing at 8,910 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous settlement price. Near the delivery date, it's about to shift positions. The trading volume was 512,100 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 394,100 lots, a decrease of 300 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 palm oil futures contracts fluctuated around the 8,900 - 8,600 yuan/ton mark, with a small monthly spread. The closing price difference between the main p2509 and the second - main p2601 was - 20 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the variety was 631,700 lots, an increase of 13,600 lots from the previous day, and the p2601 contract added 12,600 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - For the palm oil 09 contract options, the implied volatility has declined for six consecutive days. The out - of - the - money call option with a strike price of 9,000 yuan/ton had a trading volume of over 23,800 lots. The put options with strike prices from 8,800 to 8,300 yuan/ton had large trading volumes and open interests, indicating a bearish market sentiment and a high expectation that the price will exceed 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of the Malaysian BMD main 10 contract weakened, closing at 4,230 ringgit/ton, down 1.12% from the previous settlement price [7] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Prices - On August 1, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil at domestic ports were between 8,920 and 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [8] 3.2.2 Basis Data - The basis between the spot and the main futures contract was stable, at 160.33 yuan/ton on the day, unchanged from the previous day [10] 3.2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 570 lots [11] 3.2.4 Import Profits - The import cost increased again, and the profit continued to be in a reverse state [16] 3.3 Influencing Factors - According to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit in Malaysia increased by 7.19% month - on - month in July, and the production increased by 7.07% month - on - month. Indonesia set the price of crude palm oil at $910.91/ton in August, a 3.76% increase from July. The export tax was $74/ton, a $22 increase from July. The special tax on crude palm oil remained at 10%. According to Indonesian statistics, the export volume of refined palm oil and crude palm oil in the first half of 2025 was 11 million tons, a 2.69% year - on - year increase, and the average export unit price increased by 22.2% year - on - year [20][21] 3.4 Market Outlook - The daily line of the continuous palm oil p2509 futures price closed with a positive line, but the price rebound was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Technically, the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages formed a death cross. In the short term, the price may lack upward momentum and tend to fluctuate weakly. Future trends need to focus on main position changes, production area data during the production - increasing season, market consumption performance, and policy guidance [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Glass [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: August 1, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core View - In the short - term, the glass futures may continue to show a weak trend. Supply - demand imbalance and cooling policy expectations will continue to drag down prices. With technical breakdown and short - selling capital pressure, the lower support levels will be tested. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the sentiment transmission effect in the commodity market, the rhythm of spot inventory reduction, and the actual implementation strength of capacity - reduction policies [10]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 1, 2025, the FG2509 glass contract continued to be weak. After opening, the price dropped continuously, breaking through the key support level of 1,100 yuan/ton during the session and closing with a negative line. It fell 44 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a decline of 3.84%, with a closing price of 1,102 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.616 million lots, and the open interest was 1.1692 million lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: All 12 glass futures contracts declined today, with the decline ranging from 1.92% to 4.59%. The market was dominated by bearish sentiment. The total open interest of the variety was 1.7858 million lots, an increase of 99,794 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2509 increased by 67,900 lots [4]. - **关联行情**: On the same day, the put options of glass options increased significantly in open interest, and the put options performed stronger than the call options [6]. 4.2 Spot Market - In the Shahe area, the spot trading of glass was light, the transaction center of gravity moved down, and the overall demand price remained stable [8]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply - demand Factors**: On the supply side, the current daily melting volume of float glass in production has risen to 159,600 tons, with an operating rate of 75% and a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%. The weekly average profit of float glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuel exceeded 100 yuan, and the loss of natural - gas - fueled glass narrowed. On the demand side, the real - estate terminal orders were insufficient, the deep - processing orders only rebounded slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level, indicating limited actual digestion capacity [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of glass enterprises reached a new low recently, decreasing by 2.397 million weight - boxes to 59.499 million weight - boxes. However, this was mainly due to the transfer of inventory to traders, and the actual terminal digestion was limited [9].

报告周期: 日度 股指期货日报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 A 股三大指数今日小幅回调,截止收盘,沪深两市成交额 15984 亿, 较昨日大幅缩量 3377 亿。股指期货方面，四大股指维持震荡格局, 涨跌不一，截至收盘，IF2509 合约下跌 0.52%、IH2509 合约下跌 0.63%、IC2509 合约下跌 0.13%，IM2509 合约上涨 0.25%。 图 1: IF 主力合约分时走势图 来源：国金期货文华财经赢顺 WH6 客户端 研究品种:股指期货 成文日期: 20250801 研究分析师：武吟秋 期货咨询证号（F03087154&Z0018989) 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 2：IF 主力合约日 K 图 1.2 期货行情数据 | 合约名 称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅% | 成交 를 | 持仓量 | 日撮 企 | 资金 流向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2508 | 4042. | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is mainly weak with fluctuations. The main contract's operating range moves down due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the upcoming implementation of Sino - US tariffs, and the continuous inventory accumulation during the off - season. The variables are the inventory data in August and macro - stimulus situations [9] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2509 contract fluctuated and declined throughout the day, with small fluctuations during the day session and a negative close. The full - day trading volume was 145,300 lots, and the open interest was 248,613 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - There are 12 contracts for Shanghai Aluminum futures, with a total open interest of 591,031 lots, a decrease of 18,206 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract al2509 decreased by 12,750 lots, indicating capital outflows during the decline [4] 3.2 Spot Market - On July 31, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2509 strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,590 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,510 yuan/ton, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Macro Information - Powell said that "it's too early to cut interest rates in September", causing the market's interest - rate cut expectation to drop from 64% to 46%. The US dollar index reached a two - month high, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The Politburo meeting's statement on "anti - involution" was milder than expected, and no super - expected stimulus signals were released, cooling market sentiment. The negotiation result of the suspension of Sino - US economic and trade tariffs expiring on August 1 has become a short - term key variable [7] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average, with the support level at the 40 - day moving average. The MACD formed a death cross with an expanding green bar, the trading volume increased, and the price declined with capital outflows [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 31, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Soybeans - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures rebounded but was blocked, with prices fluctuating weakly. The opening price was 4,146 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,160 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,119 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day. The trading volume was 102,711 lots, the open interest was 122,210 lots, and the daily increase in positions was -6,447 lots [2]. 1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Daily Increase in Positions (lots) | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A2509 | 4,131 | -21 | -0.51% | 102,711 | 122,210 | -6,447 | 0.99% | | A2511 | 4,118 | -20 | -0.48% | 39,504 | 120,352 | 678 | 0.84% | | A2601 | 4,106 | -19 | -0.46% | 15,463 | 34,013 | 227 | 0.87% | | A2603 | 4,096 | -20 | -0.49% | 4,469 | 23,402 | -202 | 0.83% | [3] 2. Spot Market - Today's soybean basis was -111 yuan/ton, and the basis has strengthened recently. Today's total registered soybean warehouse receipts were 13,557 lots, a decrease of 4 lots from the previous trading day [4]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Important Events - According to Wind data, today's average domestic soybean price was 4,027 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.60%. In recent days, the domestic soybean spot price has been stable with a slight increase. Today, the soybean inventory in major ports was 6.8393 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%. Currently, the inventory accumulation rate of port soybeans has slowed down [6][9]. 3.2 Industry News - In terms of imported soybeans, according to Wind data, today's near-month landed duty-paid prices of imported soybeans showed a weak trend. Today, the near-month landed duty-paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,770.72 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,896.47 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,725.15 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall crushing profit of enterprises has maintained a narrow - range fluctuating trend [10].

研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20250729 报告周期: 日报 研究员：王建超（从业资格号：F3077383;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015736) 黄金期货日报:聚焦美联储会议，金价探 FE | 미국 1 外盘和上期所期货盘面情况 当日（20250729），周一 COMEX 黄金期货继续回落，连续第 四天回落。周二沪金期货继续弱势下行，主力 2510 合约收盘在 771.44 元/克，全天下跌 3.34 元/克（相对于上一交易日收盘价）, 跌幅 0.43%。贸易乐观情绪消退后，金价探底回升。 图 1: 上期所黄金期货主力合约分时图 ald and tamination of the Omalian Hands (10 morely 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 图 2：COMEX 黄金期货主力合约分时图 | | 图 3: 上期所黄金期货下午收盘数据面板图 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Beans - Report cycle: Daily - Date of report: July 30, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 3. Core View - The domestic soybean spot price has been stable with a slight decline recently, and the futures price of soybean No. 1 has shown a low - level volatile and slightly stronger trend. The basis has weakened again, and the registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The port soybean inventory is increasing, and the import soybean arrival - at - destination duty - paid price is generally weak, while the enterprise's crushing profit decline has slowed down [2][3][8][9] 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On July 30, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean No. 1 futures showed a low - level volatile and slightly stronger trend. The opening price was 4,145 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,166 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 4,133 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day. The trading volume was 118,912 lots, the open interest was 128,657 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was - 4,692 lots [2] - **Variety price**: Different contracts had different price changes. For example, the A2509 contract closed at 4,153 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.41%; the A2511 contract closed at 4,146 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.00% [3] 4.2 Spot Market - **Basis and registered warehouse receipts**: The basis of soybean No. 1 was - 133 yuan/ton, weakening again. The total number of registered warehouse receipts was 13,561 lots, remaining the same as the previous trading day [4] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: The average price of domestic soybeans was 4,003 yuan/ton, down 0.35% month - on - month, showing a stable - to - decreasing trend in recent days. The inventory of soybeans in major ports was 6.8443 million tons, up 0.67% month - on - month, continuing the inventory - building trend [7][8] - **Industry information**: The arrival - at - destination duty - paid price of imported soybeans was generally weak. The near - month arrival - at - destination duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4,814.14 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,932.83 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3,723.32 yuan/ton. The decline in enterprise crushing profit has slowed down and slightly recovered [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), alumina futures showed a significant upward trend, and the alumina market continued its strong pattern with increased market activity. The active trading in the spot market drove up the alumina price substantially [2]. - In the short - term, alumina will fluctuate, and capital games will intensify. It is easy to be affected by the decline of market sentiment and inventory increase, leading to sharp drops. However, considering the increased supply and ore - end interference factors compared to the first half of the year and the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" policies as the main themes in the second half of the year, a relatively strong outlook is maintained [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Overall Market Performance - This week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), the main alumina contract rose following the macro - sentiment of the commodity market. The daily line was above the moving average, and the weekly line was among the moving averages. The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3,428 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.27%. The trading volume was 910,000 lots, and the open interest was 190,000 lots [2]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors 2.1 This Week's Fundamental Data Tracking and Interpretation - **Macro**: Domestically, the trading focus is on "anti - involution + stable growth". The reversal of macro - sentiment, combined with term - positive arbitrage to lock in inventories and downstream speculative restocking, forms a typical characteristic of speculating on expectations during the off - season. The medium - term sustainability of the market depends on whether the expectations can be realized, specifically the actual implementation of "anti - involution + stable growth" policies in China and whether the strong overseas macro - reality can continue [6]. - **Commodity Logic**: Currently, the commodity sentiment is cooling in the short - term. The current position can be regarded as a policy bottom, and the market bottom requires more clues of macro and fundamental improvement. Domestically, it focuses on whether M1 and social financing continue to rise and the decline rate of manufacturing investment growth. Overseas, it focuses on whether container shipments and US consumption data weaken after August 1st and the degree of the weakening. August - September is a transition period from the policy bottom to the market bottom, and major asset classes, including commodities, may show a pattern of intra - commodity differentiation and mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamentals**: - The political power in Guinea is becoming more volatile, and the bauxite mining rights may be used as a means of political game and tax increase. Attention should be paid to the risks brought by black - swan events in the ore end in the second half of the year [9]. - The current supply in the spot market is tight, and the spot transaction price is still rising. The spot price is at a premium mainly due to factors such as the previous supply of long - term contracts, partial over - sales, and recent maintenance of alumina plants in some regions. The available spot in the market is still relatively limited. Calculated based on the Australian FOB price of $380 on July 25, the current theoretical import price of alumina is about 3,350 yuan [9][10]. - On Friday, the alumina warehouse receipts increased slightly but remained at a low level. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,109 tons to 9,031 tons, showing a slight selling pressure. However, it is necessary to track whether the increase continues. The total warehouse receipts are still at a very low level. It is expected that about 50,000 tons of warehouse receipts may be gradually formed in Xinjiang by the end of July or early August. The inventory in alumina plants is still low, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, and the willingness to support the price in the spot market is strong. In addition, alumina spot sales are mainly long - term contracts, so the available supply for the futures market may be limited [13]. - The market sentiment changes rapidly, and "anti - involution + stable growth" remains the main theme. On Friday night, the exchange's position limit led to the decline of market sentiment. A series of varieties led by coking coal dropped from the daily limit to near the daily limit. Alumina was affected by the sentiment decline and the increase in futures inventory, and its premium was reversed, resulting in a sharp drop. The short - term market sentiment changes greatly, and risk control should be noted [14]. - The operating capacity of alumina is still rising, and the inventory in alumina plants has increased slightly. The operating capacity of alumina is 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons compared with last week. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, still in an oversupply stage. The total alumina inventory is increasing (the latest weekly inventory is 4.047 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons), but the inventory increase mainly occurs in the raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and the in - transit link. The inventory in alumina plants increased by 10,000 tons to 60,000 tons, still at a low level. In terms of imports, about 100,000 tons of imported alumina is expected to enter the domestic market in August, mainly from Indonesia, and the ports of arrival are concentrated in Liaoning and Guangxi [16]. 3. Conclusion and Outlook - Alumina will fluctuate in the short - term, and capital games will intensify. Attention should be paid to risk control. On Friday night, the exchange's position limit led to the decline of market sentiment, and alumina was prone to sharp drops due to the decline of market sentiment and inventory increase. In the future, supply and ore - end interference factors will increase compared to the first half of the year, and the "anti - involution" and "stable growth" policies will remain the main themes in the second half of the year, so a relatively strong outlook should be maintained [19].