Workflow
Guo Jin Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
国金期货
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 06:17
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend. Recent geopolitical disturbances have provided support through geopolitical premiums, but the expected increase in Middle - East production has limited the upside potential of oil prices. Overall, despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil is supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,796 yuan/ton this week, up 79 yuan/ton or 2.91% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,848 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,766 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,551,108 lots and an open interest of 221,820 lots, a decrease of 8,617 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed an inverse market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market was weak this week. The current basis level was in the lower range of recent months, indicating greater price pressure in the spot market compared to the futures market. The current spot market supply is very loose, and sellers are willing to sell at prices lower than the futures price [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, 2025, the total fuel oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 127,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. All these warehouse receipts were in bonded warehouses [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors The fuel oil benchmark price was 5,450 yuan/ton, up nearly 1.2% compared to the beginning of the month. The 380CST fuel oil benchmark price was 438 US dollars/ton, up 0.9% compared to the beginning of the month [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook Overall, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend in the game between crude oil cost drivers and its own fundamentals. High basis and geopolitical premiums were the main features of the market. Despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil was supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums, with relatively limited decline. The significant decline in inventories in Singapore and Fujairah provided some support, but the expected increase in Middle - East production and weak global demand limited the upside potential. In the future, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, Fed monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [13].
电解铜期货日报:市场继续消化美联储降息和鲍威尔鹰派讲话,铜价低位震荡-20250923
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:46
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].
烧碱期货周报:延续下行-20250923
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 07:13
本周烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,截至本周五收盘,主力合约烧碱 2601 (SH101) 周度上涨 81 元/吨,收盘至 2641 元/吨,涨幅为 3.16%,最高价 2657 元/吨,最低价 2548 元/吨,持仓 11.4 万手, 较上周减少 4712 手。成交量较上周增加 31.6 万手至 185.2 万手。 图 1:烧碱主连日 K 线 1.2 品种行情 成文日期:20250921 报告周期:周度 研究员:何宁(从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 烧碱期货周报: 延续下行 核心观点: 当周 (20250915-0919) 烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,周涨幅 3.16%。下周随着检修装置逐渐恢复,预计开工率将有所上升。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 从烧碱期货周度行情来看,除近月 SH510 合约下跌外,其他合 约整体上行,主力合约 SH601 持仓量有所减少。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 表 1: 烧碱期货行情表(20250915-20250919) | ...
尿素期货日报-20250923
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:06
成文日期:20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员:何宁(从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日(20250919)尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行,收盘价为 1661 元/吨,最高达 1676 元/吨,最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手,较上日减少 0.1 万手,持仓量 29.7 万手,较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1:尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源:国金期货 wh6 图 2:尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1: 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...
工业硅期货日报-20250923
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:11
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The industrial silicon futures price may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, supported by the cost side and market expectations of supply contraction. However, the upside space may be limited due to high inventory levels and limited improvement in demand, as well as potential under - performance of supply - side production cuts [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose significantly, with a trading volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 weakened. The price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 was 9,100 yuan/ton on the day, and the basis was - 205 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, showing a slowdown after consecutive weeks of growth. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, with the operating rate increasing by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons, and that in Sichuan remained unchanged at 2,135 tons [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the industrial silicon main 2511 contract closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent trading range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator formed a golden cross above the zero - axis, indicating an increase in short - term bullish power. However, the price is approaching the resistance level of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and further upward movement requires continuous volume support and effective breakthrough of this resistance area [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook The short - term trend of industrial silicon futures prices may be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside space may be limited if supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations [10].
豆油期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 12:04
成文日期: 20250919 报告周期:日度 研究品种:豆瓣 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 油期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日(20250919)豆油期货市场整体呈现震荡上涨走势。主力 合约 y2601 收于 8,328 元/吨,较上个交易日上涨 22 元/吨,成交量 为 331,651 手,持仓量为 571,426 手,持仓量减少 3,418 手。 图 1 豆油期货主力合约分时图 图片数据来源:WIND 1.2 品种价格 豆油合约总成交量 378,156 手,总持仓量 820,566 手,较前日减 少 3,207 手。 图 2 豆油期货各合约日行情数据 研究热线:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | | | 商品名称合约名称 开盘价最高价最低价收盘价前结算价结算价储算价涨跌8跌跌1 成交量 | | | | | | | 行者都受益 曹玲妹 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
尿素期货周报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:59
Report Overview - Research Variety: Urea [1] - Report Date: September 21, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the domestic urea spot market continued to decline. The market had sufficient supply, rising social inventories, and persistent supply - demand pressure. Low - price transactions dominated the market [2] Section Summaries 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - From September 15 - 21, 2025, urea futures contracts had similar prices with small overall spreads, showing a volatile trend. UR510 closed at 1,570 yuan/ton, opened at 1,586 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,608 yuan/ton, a low of 1,567 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.76%, trading volume of 6,745 lots, and an open interest of 5,219 lots. UR601 closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, opened at 1,666 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,704 yuan/ton, a low of 1,656 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 615,000 lots, and an open interest of 297,000 lots [3] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - On September 19, according to Steel Union data, small - granular urea in East China's Hualu Hengsheng was priced at 1,650 yuan/ton (basis - 11 yuan/ton), in Central China's Henan Xinlianxin at 1,660 yuan/ton (basis - 1 yuan/ton), and in Northwest China's Ningxia Petrochemical at 1,530 yuan/ton (basis - 131 yuan/ton), reflecting local demand differences with mild overall fluctuations [8] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of September 19, 2025, according to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange data, there were 7,810 registered urea warehouse receipts, a slight increase from last week, indicating a short - term market in a wait - and - see equilibrium [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - Supply: The urea industry is expected to achieve a net new capacity of nearly 4 million tons this year, with a capacity growth rate exceeding 4%. Coal prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Coal - based urea production maintains some profit, while natural - gas - based urea is in a loss state. If the loss persists, the operating rate of gas - based plants may decline slightly. The annual output growth is expected to be around 5% - 6%, but if the spot price drops further, the operating rate may adjust negatively, and the output growth rate may fall to 1% - 2% [10] - Demand: Traders are gradually picking up goods for export, reducing the possibility of a significant short - term inventory build - up. Although the pressure of pending orders and inventory has increased, leading to a decline in spot quotes, the market may experience a phased recovery as export channels gradually expand. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the industry fundamentals are expected to face pressure in the second half of the year [11] - Policy: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024 [11] 4. Market Outlook - This year, urea capacity is expected to grow by over 4%, and the output growth rate is about 5% - 6%, but falling prices may suppress the operating rate. On the demand side, export orders support inventory, while weakening agricultural demand pressures the market in the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve starting an interest - rate cut cycle, the macro - environment is becoming more accommodative. The urea market may have a short - term phased rebound, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals remain under pressure. Future attention should be paid to changes in the operating rate and export policies [14][15]
纯碱期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]
工业硅期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend. However, due to high inventory and limited demand improvement, if the supply - side production cut is less than expected, the upside space may be restricted [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract of the futures variety rose sharply and closed with a positive line. The full - day trading volume was 510,306 lots, and the open interest was 311,097 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 has weakened. The quotation of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 on the day was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis on the day was - 205 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous week. After several consecutive weeks of growth, it slowed down for the first time. The weekly output of industrial silicon of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Sichuan was 2,135 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent shock range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator had a golden cross above the zero axis. However, the current price is close to the pressure level in the range of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - The fundamentals of industrial silicon supply and demand have not changed significantly for the time being, but the cost side supports the price. The market expects the supply side to shrink later. Combined with the strong rally of the market today, the short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend [10]
沪锌期货日报-20250922
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - **Variety Prices**: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation**: - **Macro - aspect**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - **Demand - side**: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].