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白糖期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, under the weak trend of domestic and international sugar prices, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures may continue to show a weak and volatile trend [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On November 5, 2025, the price of the main contract (SR601) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The trading volume was 184,476 lots, the open interest was 367,492 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 1330 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures were 250,486 lots with a long position difference of 2,705 lots, and the total short positions were 292,279 lots with a short position difference of 3,970 lots [2] - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes and amplitudes of other contracts (SR511, SR603, SR605) are also provided [3] 3.1.3 Options Market - On this day, a total of 81,238 lots of white sugar options were traded, with 47,103 lots of call options and 34,135 lots of put options. The open interest of the variety was 306,152 lots, the open interest of call options was 194,706 lots, the open interest of put options was 111,446 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.5724 [3] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotation - According to Wind data, the domestic white sugar spot quotation on this day was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures on this day was 7,422, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 External Market Quotes - On November 4, the opening price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar was 14.65 cents/pound, the highest price was 14.72 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.13 cents/pound, and the closing price was 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound or 3.00% from the previous day. The open interest was 478,904 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 3,720 lots [11] 3.3.2 Basis Data - The white sugar basis on this day was 299 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen [14] 3.4 Market Outlook - The domestic white sugar spot price has weakened again, and the price of the main contract of ICE white sugar futures has failed to rebound and turned down. On the futures market, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures opened low and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend throughout the day [16]
电解铜期货日报:触及 85000 重要支撑位,价格开始震荡-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:38
成文日期: 20251105 报告周期:日报 误:王建超(从业资格号:F3077383; 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015736) 解铜期货日报: 触及 85000 重要支撑位。 i澄升始震 周二 LME 铜价继续回落、今日(20251105 周三)沪铜止跌震 荡、主力 2512 合约收盘在 85670 元/吨,较上一交易目收盘价下跌 70 元/吨,跌幅 0.08%;美元指数开始震荡不再走高,铜价触及 85000 元/吨重要关口后,暂时止跌,开始震荡。 今日现货市场氛围尚可,铜价下跌后市场采购情绪转好,下游企 业逢低采购积极性有所提升,现货市场流通似有减少支撑现货升水。 中国部分地区市场光亮铜精废价差继续回落,广东地区为 2562 元/ 吨. 天津地区 2640元/吨。 2. 宏观和基本面 美联储官员在 12 月降息这个议题上保持模糊策略导致美元近期 走强,而美元走强是近期压制铜价的主要原因。但市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率一度下降至 67%,今天该概率提高至 73.9%。高盛认为美联储 12 月降息是基准预测。这也意味着未来美 联储官员改口风也是大概率事件。 美国联邦政府停摆要进入第 36天 ...
生猪期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:36
当日(20251105),期货品种生猪 lh2601 合约呈现震荡上涨 走势,当日收至 11945 点,较昨日结算价上涨 1.57%,全日成交 13.61 万手,持仓量 13.64 万手。 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 成文日期: 20251105 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:生猪 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 生猪期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图:生猪 lh2601 分时图 | | 局起 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 22.50 TE 们 跌1 | 25 跌 | રિ | 持仓量 | 変化 | 成交空部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਵ | lh2511 11,495 11,500 11,495 11,500 11,535 11,495 -35 -40 10 | | | 23 | -10 | 183.99 | | ਵ 猪 ...
沪锌期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the opening of the domestic export window may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market - On October 29, 2025, the price of Shanghai zinc futures rose slightly against the trend, closing at 22,430 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,143 lots, and the open interest was 118,849 lots [2] 3.2 Futures Market - Variety Price - There are 12 contracts of Shanghai zinc futures today, with a total open interest of 210,352 lots, an increase of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract zn2512 decreased by 1,844 lots [5] - Specific data for each contract, including the latest price, opening price, trading volume, open interest, daily increase in open interest, increase rate, rise and fall, lowest price, highest price, previous settlement price, and settlement price, are provided in the table [6] 3.3 Fundamental Situation - The total supply remains at a high level. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the month-on-month increase in consumption is not obvious. However, the production of galvanized coils and die-cast alloys is at the second-highest level in the same period in history, indicating that the absolute level of terminal demand is not low. The limited seasonal increase has led to the "peak season not being prosperous" [9] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the opening of the domestic export window in the fourth quarter may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10]
烧碱期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:26
Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: October 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The caustic soda futures price oscillated and consolidated today, while the spot price remained weakly stable. Most chlor-alkali enterprises are operating at normal loads, and the demand side remains lukewarm. The enthusiasm of downstream operators and traders to enter the market is not high. It is expected that the caustic soda futures market may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of major downstream industries and macro sentiment in the future [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, maintained an oscillating trend. The closing price was 2,361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 34,000 lots compared to the previous day, with a total trading volume of 302,000 lots. The open interest was 134,000 lots, an increase of 1,952 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Today, 12 caustic soda futures contracts oscillated and consolidated. The total open interest of the variety was 212,800 lots, an increase of 8,561 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 1,952 lots, and the capital inflow was 34.8 million yuan [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Today, the put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed stronger than the call options, with overall limited fluctuations [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province remained weak today. Most enterprises' inventories increased at the end of the month, and the sales were poor. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong was 790 - 830 yuan/ton, 750 - 810 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 790 - 860 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,210 - 1,330 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong Province were stable today, and the chlor-alkali profit was 583 yuan/ton [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract closed with a small positive line, maintaining a low-level oscillation. The price was suppressed by the 10-day moving average [12]
白糖期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:26
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Nanning warehouse white sugar spot price remains stable, the ICE white sugar futures main contract price continues to be weak, and the overall support for domestic white sugar futures prices is average. The price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) continues a small - scale rebound and shows a strong trend throughout the day. In the short term, due to the divergence in the price trends of domestic and foreign white sugar, there may still be significant differences between bulls and bears in the price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601), and the price may generally continue a wide - range volatile trend at a low level [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 29, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange white sugar futures main contract (SR601) fluctuated strongly throughout the day, closing at 5,494 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous day. The trading volume was 182,203 lots, the open interest was 391,035 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 9,001 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) were 261,716 lots, with a long position difference of - 4,043 lots, and the total short positions were 313,807 lots, with a short position difference of - 13,851 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Different white sugar futures contracts showed different price changes. For example, SR511 closed at 5,426 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 0.72%; SR603 closed at 2,459 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.59%, etc. [3]. - **Option Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options on this day was 69,226 lots, with 44,991 lots for call options and 24,235 lots for put options. The open interest of the variety was 289,843 lots, with 180,934 lots for call options and 108,909 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.6019 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quote**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse on this day was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous observation day [6]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures on this day was 7,625, a decrease of 70 from the previous trading day [9][10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On October 28, the opening price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.5 cents/pound, the highest price was 14.59 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.28 cents/pound, and the closing price was 14.39 cents/pound, down 0.07 cents/pound or 0.48% from the previous day. The open interest was 466,050 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 3,573 lots [11]. - **Basis Data**: The white sugar basis on this day was 286 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to weaken [14].
黄金期货周报:沪金创1001元/克新高,黄金如期大幅回落-20251028
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold started to adjust this week. The SHFE gold futures contract 2512 reached a high of 1001.96 yuan/gram, then dropped sharply due to the potential short - term cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The December main contract of COMEX gold fell 376.8 dollars/ounce, a decline of 8.57%, and the December main contract of SHFE gold fell 78.34 yuan/gram, a decline of 7.82%. [1] - After a sharp and rapid short - term rise, it is highly likely that gold will adjust after reaching a key resistance level. Considering the 1000 - dollar/ounce increase in the past two months, the adjustment needs time and space. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend due to central bank gold purchases in emerging markets and global de - dollarization. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory (1. Disk Situation) - Last week, gold showed signs of exhaustion after continuous sharp upward movements. The December main contract of COMEX gold rose for the second time on Monday and hit a record high, then declined for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday, and hovered at the bottom on Thursday and Friday. The SHFE gold futures generally followed the COMEX trend, with a slightly smaller decline due to the RMB exchange rate. [2] - Based on the K - lines of the COMEX main December contract, the adjustment of gold may not be over. Although there is capital entering the SHFE market to push up the price after the decline, the adjustment of SHFE gold is hard to end before the external market stabilizes. [2] Group 4: Market Data - The table shows the weekly market data of SHFE gold futures, including the opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, open interest, open interest change, settlement price, trading volume, and trading amount of different delivery months such as au2511, au2512, etc. [3]
工业硅期货周报-20251028
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the main contract of industrial silicon, si2601, closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous week. The trading volume was 709,000 lots, and the open interest was 186,000 lots [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly within the range during the week. As of Friday's close, the main contract (si2601) rose 120 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a 1.36% increase, with a high of 9,090 yuan/ton and a low of 8,765 yuan/ton, and an open interest of 186,000 lots [3] - **Variety Market**: Among the weekly quotes of industrial silicon futures, the contract price of industrial silicon (si2610) was the highest, and that of industrial silicon (si2511) was the lowest [3] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Condition**: From October 20 - 24, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stagnant, with the center staying at a low level. On October 23, SMM's East - China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was at 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; 441 silicon was at 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; 421 silicon was at 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; 3303 silicon was at 10,400 - 10,600 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [5] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the registered warehouse receipts of industrial silicon this week were 48,327 lots, a decrease of 1,787 lots from last week. The short - term market was in a wait - and - see equilibrium state [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: In terms of market transactions, there were some silicon powder orders in the north during the week, and the transaction price decreased compared with the previous round. Other downstream users had strong price - pressing sentiment, and the market was dominated by low - price transactions [6] - **Supply Side**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. Near the end of October, most silicon plants in the southwest planned to gradually reduce production or stop production. Therefore, the output of industrial silicon next week is expected to change little on a week - on - week basis, and it will show a downward trend in November [6] - **Demand Side**: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. There were some silicon powder orders released in the northern region during the week, and the price of some concluded powder orders dropped by more than 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. The weekly operating rate of the silicone industry was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance would resume production next week, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly to around 70%. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry changed little, with the primary aluminum alloy sector operating steadily, while the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy sector was restricted by the tight supply of raw material scrap aluminum [6][7] 3.4 Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the industrial silicon market was in a "weak supply and demand" dilemma this week. The core of the market game lies in the confrontation between the rising cost in the dry season in the southwest region and the collective weakness of downstream demand. Currently, the downward space of the market is supported by cost, but the upward space is limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the silicon price will mainly fluctuate in the future [8]
棕榈油期货日报-20251023
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 05:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent performance at the origin and demand sides is decent, but there is still a lack of obvious bullish factors. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the oil market, palm oil prices both at home and abroad continued to decline slightly on the day. The p2601 contract of Dalian palm oil still rose and then fell during the day, with four consecutive days of decline in the daily line. In the short term, the price of the p2601 contract is likely to continue the volatile consolidation trend. In the future, attention should be paid to the biodiesel policy, origin data, and the trends of other oils [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 21, 2025, the price of the main palm oil p2601 contract opened lower and consolidated during the day, rose in the afternoon session and then fell with a reduction in positions at the end of the session, closing at 9,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 553,500 lots, an increase of 92,100 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 333,700 lots, a decrease of 10,600 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The total trading volume of all palm oil futures contracts was 628,800 lots, and the total open interest of the variety was 477,500 lots, a decrease of 11,100 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: On the same day, the main 01 contract of the Malaysian BMD futures fell again, closing at 4,508 ringgit/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from the previous day's closing price [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis Data**: The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in China on the day was 9,390 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's average price, and the basis continued to strengthen [5]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the day was 600 lots, with no increase or decrease from the previous day [8]. - **Import Profit**: The cost of importing Malaysian palm oil increased slightly on the day, and the import profit loss deepened [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Export and Production Data**: According to the data of high - frequency institutions ITS and AmSpec Agri, the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of October were 1.0448 million tons and 0.9651 million tons respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 2.5% respectively compared with the same period last month. According to the data of SPPOMA, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of October increased by 1.45%, and the output increased by 2.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Policy**: Indonesian government officials held a meeting to discuss the preparations for B50 (mixing 50% of palm oil biodiesel with diesel) and E10 (mixing 10% of ethanol with gasoline), and considered restricting the export volume of crude palm oil to increase the production of biodiesel [9][11]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 17, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a weekly increase of 26,000 tons; the contract volume was 40,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Recently, the arrival volume of purchased palm oil in China has gradually increased, the market trading has remained light, and the inventory has slowly accumulated [11].
苹果期货日报-20251022
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 11:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of the apple AP2601 contract in the futures market may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term. This is supported by the scarcity of high - quality apple supply in the fundamental aspect and the strong bullish sentiment in the technical aspect [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 20, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8,865 points, a 2.26% increase from the previous day. The trading volume was 159,727 lots, and the open interest was 142,886 lots, an increase of 14,247 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The report presents the price data of multiple apple futures contracts (AP510 - AP605), including yesterday's settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, today's closing price, today's settlement price, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and trading amount [6]. - **Related Market**: Apple options traded 31,546 lots in total on the day, with a total open interest of 32,404 lots, an increase of 3,392 lots. There were 26 lots exercised on the day [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The spot price of apples on the day was 7,500 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,798 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of - 1,298 yuan/ton [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Currently, late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market for trading, with high - quality fruits commanding premium prices. Good - quality apples are seeing stable to slightly higher prices. Traders in western regions such as Gansu and northern Shaanxi are actively ordering high - quality fruits, and the warehousing work in some production areas has begun [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily K - line chart, the apple futures formed a medium - sized positive line on the day, with a relatively long real body and closing higher than the previous trading day's closing price, indicating that the bullish force was dominant and driving the price up [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook Fundamentally, the coloring of apples in the western production areas is 10 days behind schedule, the bag - removing in Shandong is postponed by half a month, and the red apples are on the market 15 days later than last year. Fruit farmers in the production areas report that the amount of high - quality fruits has decreased by half, and the proportion of high - quality fruits has declined. The warehousing volume in Gansu is lower than last year, the effective inventory in Shandong is lower than last year, and although the warehousing volume in Shaanxi is large, the proportion of high - quality fruits is not high. The scarcity of high - quality supply provides strong support for prices. Technically, the market is bullish, and the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. In the short term, the price of the AP2601 contract is likely to continue to be volatile and upward - trending [10][12].