1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend. However, due to high inventory and limited demand improvement, if the supply - side production cut is less than expected, the upside space may be restricted [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 19, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract of the futures variety rose sharply and closed with a positive line. The full - day trading volume was 510,306 lots, and the open interest was 311,097 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 553,772 lots, an increase of 37,604 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 26,045 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2511 has weakened. The quotation of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 on the day was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis on the day was - 205 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous week. After several consecutive weeks of growth, it slowed down for the first time. The weekly output of industrial silicon of sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 1,500 tons to 33,600 tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased slightly by 50 tons to 7,565 tons. The weekly output of sample enterprises in Sichuan was 2,135 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily chart, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon closed with a large positive line, breaking through the recent shock range. The price stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the MACD indicator had a golden cross above the zero axis. However, the current price is close to the pressure level in the range of 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Market Outlook - The fundamentals of industrial silicon supply and demand have not changed significantly for the time being, but the cost side supports the price. The market expects the supply side to shrink later. Combined with the strong rally of the market today, the short - term price of industrial silicon futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - **Variety Prices**: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation**: - **Macro - aspect**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - **Demand - side**: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].

Report Overview - Research Date: September 18, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 18, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1681 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1662 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 287,000 lots, an increase of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally remained stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1680 yuan/ton (basis 10 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1530 yuan/ton (basis -140 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1630 yuan/ton (basis -40 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1650 yuan/ton (basis -20 yuan/ton) [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Prices and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally maintained a stable trend, with slight differences in some areas due to demand [6] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as planned, but the policy signals it released were complex, with both hawkish and dovish stances [7][8] 4. Market Outlook - Currently, domestic urea production has rebounded, but agricultural demand is in the off - season, industrial demand is growing slowly, and upstream factories are continuously accumulating inventory. The lowest bid in the latest Indian tender was lower than market expectations. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has reached 1165300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32600 tons. Supply is slightly stronger than demand, and enterprise inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Synthetic rubber [1] - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of report: September 18, 2025 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, with supply, inventory, and cost factors influencing the market. Future price movements depend on pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 18, 2025, synthetic rubber fluctuated and declined. The BR2511 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton, reached a high of 11,590 yuan/ton, a low of 11,355 yuan/ton, and closed at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton or 1.76% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 116,100 lots, an increase of 43,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 74,500 lots, an increase of 7,604 lots [2] - **Variety price**: The BR2510 contract opened at 11,610 yuan/ton with a high of 11,660 yuan/ton; the BR2512 contract opened at 11,570 yuan/ton with a high of 11,590 yuan/ton; the BR2601 contract opened at 11,605 yuan/ton, closed at 11,440 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton or 1.59%, with a trading volume of 19,247 lots and an open interest of 22,233 lots [4] - **Spot price**: On September 18, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market decreased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Some arbitrage resources had lower prices, and the mainstream supply price was affected [5] 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry information**: As of September 17, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous period. However, trader inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and there is still pressure on total social inventory. Butadiene port inventory has dropped to 25,600 tons, but 50,000 tons of shipments are expected to arrive in October, weakening cost - side support [6] - **Policy and market dynamics**: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 18, China's rubber tire exports in August were 870,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to August was 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase [6] 4.3 Market Outlook - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Although there are disruptions in the natural rubber tapping process due to rainfall and high raw material prices, the spot trading sentiment has weakened. Supply and inventory pressures dominate the market. The short - term synthetic rubber futures market is expected to continue its weak performance, and future price movements need to pay attention to pre - National Day stocking, device maintenance, butadiene prices, and tire production data [7][8]

成文日期：20250919 报告周期:日度 研究品种:铁矿 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799) 铁矿石期货日报 | | | | | 商品名称 合约名称开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 前结算价结算价涨跌涨跌1 | | | | | | 成交量 | | 持合量 持合量变化 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿石 | i2510 | 822.5 826.5 816.5 | | | 820 | 820 | 820.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 5,067 | 8,258 | -2,246 | 41,595.56 | | 铁矿石 | i2511 | 816.5 | 822.5 | 811 | 814.5 | 815.5 | 814.5 | -1 | -1 | 11,662 | 70,957 | 301 | 95,034.34 | | 铁矿石 | i2512 | 813 | 816.5 | 805 | 808. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, changes in domestic aluminum social inventory, and the operating conditions of downstream processing enterprises will determine the subsequent breakthrough direction of aluminum prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On September 17, 2025, the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed a volatile downward trend throughout the day, closing with a negative line, down about 0.38% from the previous settlement to 20910 points. The daily trading volume was 87,910 lots, and the open interest was 137,521 lots [2]. - The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 588,644 lots, a decrease of 10,552 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 decreased by 16,514 lots, indicating capital reduction during the decline [3]. 3.2 Spot Market On September 17, 2025, the basis of the main contract al2510 of Shanghai Aluminum strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,890 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro - information**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting is imminent. The significant deterioration of the US employment market data has strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping published in Qiushi Journal, aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition among enterprises, provides support for the market [7]. - **Fundamental information**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level and is approaching the "ceiling", with limited subsequent increments. With the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has rebounded, and orders in related fields such as photovoltaics and automobiles have increased. However, high - priced aluminum significantly suppresses consumption, and the overall purchasing willingness is not strong. The electrolytic aluminum inventory fluctuates, and a stable de - stocking trend has not been formed [8]. - **Technical analysis**: The daily line of the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum effectively broke below the 5 - day moving average and tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The MACD red column shrank, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and market participants showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price trend of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract faces certain uncertainties due to bottlenecks on the supply - side, uncertainties on the demand - side, and inventory changes. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress in Myanmar [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.2 Variety Price - There are 12 Shanghai Tin futures contracts. The total trading volume of the variety is 79,845 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai Tin contracts is 55,467 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Tin contract 2510 is 23,007 lots [5][6] 2 Spot Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract today is 274,260 yuan/ton. The spot quotation of Shanghai Tin in the Yangtze River spot market on the same day is 274,260 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,720 yuan/ton [7] 3 Influence Factors - Supply - side: Although Myanmar's Wa State has obtained mining licenses, the rainy season hinders resumption of production, and Thailand prohibits over - land transit transportation. It is difficult to significantly increase production before November. The power negotiation deadlock in Congo - Kinshasa and the decline in ore grade in Australia also restrict supply, making the current Shanghai Tin spot market relatively tight [8] - Demand - side: Despite the expected "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market is still cautious about domestic consumption performance, and the demand release rhythm may be postponed. The tight supply situation supports the spot price above the futures price [8]

COMEX 20250917 2510 835.08 / 7.0 / 0.83% | | 图 3：上期所黄金期货合约行情图 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今井監 | 磨煌W | 磨喉科 | 收盘价 | 结算参考 રી | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持仓手/变化 | | | 商品名称:黄金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2510 | 838.12 | 841.16 | 843.42 | 834.16 | 835.08 | 839.00 | -3.04 | 0.88 | 164311 | 13785765.84 | 96007 | -8053 | | 2511 | 839.40 | 842.66 | 845.00 | 835.32 | 836.40 | 839.90 | -3.00 | 0.50 | 1668 | 140096.16 | ae13 | -147 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Henghao's soybean oil futures [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soybean oil futures closed higher with a slight inflow of funds, indicating a slightly improved market sentiment. Despite significant inventory pressure at domestic ports and uncertainties in the US biodiesel policy, the high spot premium and the staged improvement in Malaysia's palm oil export data provide support. In the short term, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors and no clear single - sided driver, the futures price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. Future focus should be on the final decision of the US EPA's biofuel policy, the progress of China - US trade negotiations, and the actual performance of pre - festival stocking demand in China [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 16, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an overall volatile upward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,418 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton or 0.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 297,565 lots, and the open interest was 597,730 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 350,578 lots, and the total open interest was 849,672 lots, an increase of 6,022 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.1.3 Related Market - The daily trading volume of soybean oil options was 63,696 lots, and the open interest was 105,582 lots, an increase of 9,804 lots. The number of exercised options was 0 [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,640 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,418 yuan/ton, with a basis of 222 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On September 15, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 12,000 lots of corn futures contracts, 500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 1,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, while net - buying 1,500 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the mix of bullish and bearish factors. Key factors to watch include the US EPA's biofuel policy decision, China - US trade negotiation progress, and domestic pre - festival stocking demand [10].