Guo Jin Qi Huo
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棉花期货日报-20251110
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of a slight decline in spot prices, the price of the cotton CF2601 contract is likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures opened at 13,600 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 13,630 yuan/ton and a low of 13,555 yuan/ton, closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 178,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,553 lots to 579,138 lots [2] - **Variety price**: All 6 cotton futures contracts closed higher, and the variety's open interest was 944,677 lots, an increase of 1,307 lots from the previous trading day [5] - **Associated行情**: On the same day, the trading volume of cotton options reached 92,555 lots, and the total open interest was 497,857 lots, an increase of 4,327 lots from the previous trading day [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot price tracking**: On November 6, the average arrival price of imported cotton was 74.07 cents/pound, unchanged from November 5. After conversion, the import cost was 12,763 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 13,748 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty [10] - **Registered warehouse receipts**: The cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange totaled 2,769 on the day, an increase of 17 from the previous trading day [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: According to China Cotton Net, about one - third of textile and clothing exporters in India reported a more than 50% plunge in their turnover in the US market due to tariff policies. Around 85% of enterprises faced inventory overstock, and over 80% encountered a 3 - 6 - month extension of the credit cycle, resulting in "severe pressure on liquidity." Two - thirds of exporters had to offer up to 25% discounts to remain competitive in the US market [12] - **Industry information**: The domestic CC Index 3128B closed at 14,795 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from November 5. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at Shandong warehouses (grade 3128B) was 14,890 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from November 5. The National Cotton Basis Index CNCottonJ (CF2601) was reported at 960 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from November 5 [13]
玉米期货月报-20251110
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the domestic corn market showed a "rising first, then falling" oscillating trend. At the beginning of the month, due to continuous rainy weather, the harvest and listing progress of new - season corn was slower than expected, with tight market supply supporting the price. In the middle and late - month, as the weather cleared, the supply pressure emerged as new grain volume increased and downstream demand was cautious. The overall price center shifted down compared to September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The opening price of the corn futures c2601 contract in October was 2,118 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 2,152 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month's closing price. The position was 931,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7,567,700 lots [4]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - In the monthly corn futures market, prices rose more than they fell. The total position was 1,772,414 lots, and the trading volume was 13,721,901 lots [8]. 1.3 Associated Market Analysis - In October, the trading volume of corn options was 2,203,616 lots, the total position was 233,188 lots, with a decrease of 130,217 lots. The total number of exercises in the month was 57,481 [10]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The basis in domestic corn - producing areas first strengthened and then weakened. In the first half - month, continuous rainy weather led to tight spot supply and a strong spot price, while the futures price was relatively weak. In the second half - month, as the weather cleared, new grain volume increased, the spot price fell, and the basis narrowed [11]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of corn futures warehouse receipts first remained stable and then increased, but the overall level was at a historical low. The low level in October supported the futures market, but the end - of - month increase indicated that spot pressure was being transmitted to the futures market [12]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics and relevant institutions released the 2025/26 corn production forecast. Concerns about new - grain quality emerged due to rainy weather. Relevant institutions such as Sinograin signaled to enter the market for purchases. Imported grains continued to arrive at ports, affecting domestic prices. Market attention focused on the start - up of drying towers and farmers' selling attitudes, and logistics costs affected the grain circulation pattern [13][14]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The corn futures c2601 contract showed a "bottom - hunting and rebounding" trend. After the National Day, the price fell to a new low due to supply pressure. In the middle and late - month, it bottomed out and rebounded as it fell below the planting cost and with policy support. The MACD indicator showed declining downward momentum and accumulating upward momentum [15]. 4. Market Outlook - Northeast and North China are about to enter the peak period of new - season corn listing. Farmers' selling willingness will be the key to the spot price. Downstream demand is weak, and it's difficult to drive price increases independently. In the short - term, the price of the corn C2601 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. Future attention should be paid to farmers' selling attitudes, policy - based purchases, and the impact of weather on logistics [18].
玻璃期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:44
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Futures Daily Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On November 6, 2025, the glass futures market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a stage of game between "supply contraction expectations and weak demand reality." Short - term sentiment is boosted by cold - repair expectations in the Shahe area, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals face triple pressure of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak terminal demand. Future trends will depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction speed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 6, 2025, the glass FG2601 contract fluctuated throughout the day, closing with a small decline of about 0.45% at 1101 points. The trading volume was 1,741,879 lots, and the open interest was 1,707,110 lots, an increase of 18,149 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 glass futures contracts showed a mixed trend. Except for a small increase in the FG2511 contract, all other contracts had small declines. The total open interest of the variety was 2,149,502 lots, an increase of 36,742 lots from the previous day, with the open interest of the active FG2601 contract increasing by 18,149 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - For the active glass FG2601 contract, the basis remained relatively stable at 27 yuan/ton on the day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts today was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - This week, the average operating rate of the float glass industry decreased by 0.43% to 75.92%, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 80.42%. From October 31 to November 6, the national float glass output was 1.1261 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% month - on - month and an increase of 1.87% year - on - year. As of today, the national float glass daily output was 159,100 tons, the lowest in 15 weeks [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The glass FG2601 contract showed a similar trend to soda ash, with a small - scale fluctuation today. It is still in a post - rebound oscillatory technical pattern. Today's K - line closed as a positive line, and the daily K - line was close to the middle track of the BOLL line, with the BOLL line showing a narrowing pattern [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - On November 6, the main glass futures contract closed at 1,101 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decline from the previous trading day. The market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a game stage, and future trends depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction [12].
白糖期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, under the weak trend of domestic and international sugar prices, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures may continue to show a weak and volatile trend [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On November 5, 2025, the price of the main contract (SR601) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 5441 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The trading volume was 184,476 lots, the open interest was 367,492 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 1330 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures were 250,486 lots with a long position difference of 2,705 lots, and the total short positions were 292,279 lots with a short position difference of 3,970 lots [2] - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, daily position changes and amplitudes of other contracts (SR511, SR603, SR605) are also provided [3] 3.1.3 Options Market - On this day, a total of 81,238 lots of white sugar options were traded, with 47,103 lots of call options and 34,135 lots of put options. The open interest of the variety was 306,152 lots, the open interest of call options was 194,706 lots, the open interest of put options was 111,446 lots, and the open interest PCR was 0.5724 [3] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotation - According to Wind data, the domestic white sugar spot quotation on this day was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures on this day was 7,422, a decrease of 10 from the previous trading day [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 External Market Quotes - On November 4, the opening price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar was 14.65 cents/pound, the highest price was 14.72 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.13 cents/pound, and the closing price was 14.21 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound or 3.00% from the previous day. The open interest was 478,904 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 3,720 lots [11] 3.3.2 Basis Data - The white sugar basis on this day was 299 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to strengthen [14] 3.4 Market Outlook - The domestic white sugar spot price has weakened again, and the price of the main contract of ICE white sugar futures has failed to rebound and turned down. On the futures market, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures opened low and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend throughout the day [16]
电解铜期货日报:触及 85000 重要支撑位,价格开始震荡-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline, the copper price temporarily stabilized at the important level of 85,000 yuan/ton and entered an oscillation phase [1][9] - The Fed's ambiguous stance on the December interest - rate cut led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, which suppressed the copper price. The market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has risen from 60% to 73.9%, indicating a possible improvement in market risk appetite [2][9] - Whether the subsequent copper price will continue to decline depends on when the US federal government ends the shutdown and when the Fed changes its tone on the December interest - rate cut [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Copper Futures - On November 5, 2025 (Wednesday), the Shanghai copper futures stopped falling and oscillated. The main 2512 contract closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The LME copper price continued to decline on Tuesday. After the copper price touched the important 85,000 yuan/ton mark, it temporarily stopped falling and started to oscillate [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai copper futures contracts on November 5, 2025 was 280,003 lots (unilateral calculation), the turnover was 11.9605821 billion yuan (unilateral calculation), and the open interest was 557,645 lots (a decrease of 4,052 lots) [8] 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed's ambiguous strategy on the December interest - rate cut led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which was the main reason for the suppression of the copper price. However, the market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has increased from 67% to 73.9%, and Goldman Sachs believes that a December interest - rate cut by the Fed is the baseline prediction [2] - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, creating the longest shutdown record in US history, which has triggered concerns about the liquidity of the US financial market, leading to a general decline in US stocks and commodities on Tuesday [2] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Spot Market - The atmosphere in the spot market on November 5, 2025 was acceptable. After the copper price fell, the market's purchasing sentiment improved, and the downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for bargain - hunting increased. The reduction in the circulation of the spot market seemed to support the spot premium [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in some regions of China continued to decline. In Guangdong, it was 2,562 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 2,640 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Market Outlook - The Fed's ambiguous strategy on the December interest - rate cut has led to the recent strengthening of the US dollar index, suppressing the copper price. After continuous decline, the copper price has temporarily stabilized at the 85,000 yuan/ton mark and entered an oscillation phase [9] - Whether the subsequent copper price will continue to decline requires close attention to when the US federal government ends the shutdown and when the Fed changes its tone on the December interest - rate cut [9] - The market's expected probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December rising from 60% to 73.9% means that there is a possibility of improvement in market risk appetite [9]
生猪期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:36
当日(20251105),期货品种生猪 lh2601 合约呈现震荡上涨 走势,当日收至 11945 点,较昨日结算价上涨 1.57%,全日成交 13.61 万手,持仓量 13.64 万手。 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 成文日期: 20251105 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:生猪 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 生猪期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图:生猪 lh2601 分时图 | | 局起 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 22.50 TE 们 跌1 | 25 跌 | રિ | 持仓量 | 変化 | 成交空部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਵ | lh2511 11,495 11,500 11,495 11,500 11,535 11,495 -35 -40 10 | | | 23 | -10 | 183.99 | | ਵ 猪 ...
沪锌期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the opening of the domestic export window may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market - On October 29, 2025, the price of Shanghai zinc futures rose slightly against the trend, closing at 22,430 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,143 lots, and the open interest was 118,849 lots [2] 3.2 Futures Market - Variety Price - There are 12 contracts of Shanghai zinc futures today, with a total open interest of 210,352 lots, an increase of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract zn2512 decreased by 1,844 lots [5] - Specific data for each contract, including the latest price, opening price, trading volume, open interest, daily increase in open interest, increase rate, rise and fall, lowest price, highest price, previous settlement price, and settlement price, are provided in the table [6] 3.3 Fundamental Situation - The total supply remains at a high level. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the month-on-month increase in consumption is not obvious. However, the production of galvanized coils and die-cast alloys is at the second-highest level in the same period in history, indicating that the absolute level of terminal demand is not low. The limited seasonal increase has led to the "peak season not being prosperous" [9] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the opening of the domestic export window in the fourth quarter may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10]
烧碱期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:26
Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: October 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The caustic soda futures price oscillated and consolidated today, while the spot price remained weakly stable. Most chlor-alkali enterprises are operating at normal loads, and the demand side remains lukewarm. The enthusiasm of downstream operators and traders to enter the market is not high. It is expected that the caustic soda futures market may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of major downstream industries and macro sentiment in the future [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, maintained an oscillating trend. The closing price was 2,361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 34,000 lots compared to the previous day, with a total trading volume of 302,000 lots. The open interest was 134,000 lots, an increase of 1,952 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Today, 12 caustic soda futures contracts oscillated and consolidated. The total open interest of the variety was 212,800 lots, an increase of 8,561 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 1,952 lots, and the capital inflow was 34.8 million yuan [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Today, the put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed stronger than the call options, with overall limited fluctuations [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province remained weak today. Most enterprises' inventories increased at the end of the month, and the sales were poor. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong was 790 - 830 yuan/ton, 750 - 810 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 790 - 860 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,210 - 1,330 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong Province were stable today, and the chlor-alkali profit was 583 yuan/ton [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract closed with a small positive line, maintaining a low-level oscillation. The price was suppressed by the 10-day moving average [12]
白糖期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:26
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Nanning warehouse white sugar spot price remains stable, the ICE white sugar futures main contract price continues to be weak, and the overall support for domestic white sugar futures prices is average. The price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) continues a small - scale rebound and shows a strong trend throughout the day. In the short term, due to the divergence in the price trends of domestic and foreign white sugar, there may still be significant differences between bulls and bears in the price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601), and the price may generally continue a wide - range volatile trend at a low level [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 29, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange white sugar futures main contract (SR601) fluctuated strongly throughout the day, closing at 5,494 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous day. The trading volume was 182,203 lots, the open interest was 391,035 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 9,001 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) were 261,716 lots, with a long position difference of - 4,043 lots, and the total short positions were 313,807 lots, with a short position difference of - 13,851 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Different white sugar futures contracts showed different price changes. For example, SR511 closed at 5,426 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 0.72%; SR603 closed at 2,459 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.59%, etc. [3]. - **Option Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options on this day was 69,226 lots, with 44,991 lots for call options and 24,235 lots for put options. The open interest of the variety was 289,843 lots, with 180,934 lots for call options and 108,909 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.6019 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quote**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse on this day was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous observation day [6]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures on this day was 7,625, a decrease of 70 from the previous trading day [9][10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On October 28, the opening price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.5 cents/pound, the highest price was 14.59 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.28 cents/pound, and the closing price was 14.39 cents/pound, down 0.07 cents/pound or 0.48% from the previous day. The open interest was 466,050 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 3,573 lots [11]. - **Basis Data**: The white sugar basis on this day was 286 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to weaken [14].
黄金期货周报:沪金创1001元/克新高,黄金如期大幅回落-20251028
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold started to adjust this week. The SHFE gold futures contract 2512 reached a high of 1001.96 yuan/gram, then dropped sharply due to the potential short - term cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The December main contract of COMEX gold fell 376.8 dollars/ounce, a decline of 8.57%, and the December main contract of SHFE gold fell 78.34 yuan/gram, a decline of 7.82%. [1] - After a sharp and rapid short - term rise, it is highly likely that gold will adjust after reaching a key resistance level. Considering the 1000 - dollar/ounce increase in the past two months, the adjustment needs time and space. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend due to central bank gold purchases in emerging markets and global de - dollarization. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory (1. Disk Situation) - Last week, gold showed signs of exhaustion after continuous sharp upward movements. The December main contract of COMEX gold rose for the second time on Monday and hit a record high, then declined for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday, and hovered at the bottom on Thursday and Friday. The SHFE gold futures generally followed the COMEX trend, with a slightly smaller decline due to the RMB exchange rate. [2] - Based on the K - lines of the COMEX main December contract, the adjustment of gold may not be over. Although there is capital entering the SHFE market to push up the price after the decline, the adjustment of SHFE gold is hard to end before the external market stabilizes. [2] Group 4: Market Data - The table shows the weekly market data of SHFE gold futures, including the opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, open interest, open interest change, settlement price, trading volume, and trading amount of different delivery months such as au2511, au2512, etc. [3]