2025 12 18 来源：上期所，价格：元/克，交易单位：1千克/手，成交量、持仓量及变化单位为手单边计算；成交额单位为万元，单边计算 2 元元 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 GO CM rangua 4 .. childer 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 | | 图 3：上期所黄金期货合约行情图 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交割月份 | 前結算 | 今开盘 | 磨层砂 | 磨喉ሉ | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持仓手/变化 | | | 商品名称:黄金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2601 | 975.94 | 975.54 | 981.32 | 975.10 | 978.76 | 978.40 | 2.82 | 2.46 | 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the week of December 8 - 12, 2025, building materials continued to decline, and glass entered a state of slow decline [1]. - Short - term macro - driven factors may have ended, and the focus of price determination may return to fundamentals [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed's interest - rate decision was announced during the week, with a 25 - basis - point rate cut as expected, and the subsequent rate - cut rhythm was dovish. China's important meeting ended, and the policies did not release much incremental information, all within market expectations [2]. Rebar Market - Steel mill profits improved, but as it entered the off - season, rebar's apparent demand decreased week - on - week. Output continued to decline, with a larger decline than apparent demand. Inventory continued to be reduced, and the overall fundamentals of rebar returned to a pattern of weak supply and demand. Without significant events, rebar may remain volatile [2]. - From the weekly building materials data, rebar output continued to decline week - on - week, apparent demand remained weak, and total inventory continued to be reduced [9]. Glass Market - One glass production line was ignited during the week but had not produced glass yet, and weekly output was basically stable. One production line is expected to undergo cold repair next week. The demand side is currently mainly rigid, and inventory decreased slightly week - on - week. The high - volatility market driven by funds may become stable. As prices continue to fall, glass factories are facing cash - flow losses, which may force them to cold - repair production lines. Under the current fundamentals - driven pattern, glass prices may continue to be weak [2]. - From the weekly building materials data, glass weekly output remained stable week - on - week, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was mainly rigid [9].

成文日期：20251215 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕植 员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 宗相油期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251215）棕榈油主力 p2605 合约日内低位震荡，收于 8492 元/吨，较上一日收盘价跌 60 元/吨，跌幅 0.7%。成交 44.34 万手，较上一日增 0.57 万手，持仓 39.29 万手，较上一日增仓 1.76 万手。 图：棕榈油 p2605 分时图 图片来源:国金期货行情纺 1.2 品种价格 棕榈油期货 12 个合约，除了 p2512 合约外皆下跌，总成交 54.46 万手，品种持仓总量 56.76 万手，较上一日增仓 1.17 万手。 表：棕榈油期货日行情表 | 品种名称 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 前结算价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌1 | 成交量 | 持命量 | 持合量变化 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, fuel oil futures showed an overall fluctuating downward trend, following the rhythm of international crude oil fluctuations. Prices were mainly affected by the weakening of the crude oil cost side, a significant increase in domestic futures warehouse receipts, and geopolitical supply disturbances [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - This week, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 closed at 2,405 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton or 3.57% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price this week was 2,551 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,387 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 977,113 lots, and the open interest was 207,118 lots, an increase of 62,896 lots [3] 3.1.2 Variety Price - The main fuel oil futures contract has changed to FU2603, and the spreads between contracts have further narrowed [6] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - This week, the fuel oil spot market performed poorly, and the current basis level is in the lower range of recent months. Fuel oil prices are closely linked to crude oil, and the low-level consolidation of crude oil prices further restricts the upward elasticity of the basis [8] 3.3 Outlook and Suggestions - Affected by the weakening of the cost side and the increase in warehouse receipts, the price rebound momentum is insufficient; however, the continuous growth of open interest indicates increased capital attention, and the decline of far-month contracts may be smaller than that of near-month contracts due to less warehouse receipt pressure. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trends of crude oil prices, geopolitical situations, changes in Singapore's fuel oil inventories, and domestic fuel oil production, import, and export data [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 8 - 12, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a volatile downward trend with a significant price drop, a substantial increase in the main contract's open interest, and a firm spot price, resulting in a high basis. The market has large long - short differences. The short logic is the high domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil and the weak performance of related international palm oil markets, while the long logic is the potential for futures price repair due to the high spot premium and potential pre - holiday stocking demand. The reduced expectation of the US biodiesel policy's positive impact also weakened the upward driving force [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The soybean oil futures market showed a volatile downward trend. The main contract y2605 closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton from last week. The trading volume was 1,125,831 lots, and the open interest was 592,514 lots, an increase of 74,932 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 1,764,400 lots, and the total open interest was 827,587 lots, an increase of 9,865 lots compared to last week [5]. - **Related Market**: The total trading volume of soybean oil options was 174,652 lots, the open interest was 93,424 lots, an increase of 5,154 lots, and the number of exercised options was 5 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Situation - As of Friday of the current week, the spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,480 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2605 was 8,016 yuan/ton, and the basis was 464 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On December 11, commodity funds net - sold 3,500 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 1,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 2,500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, and net - bought 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil market is expected to enter a high - volatility stage. The core contradiction is how to narrow the gap between the "extremely high basis" and the "high - inventory reality" through price movements. The possibility of the spot price falling towards the futures price to repair the basis is greater. Attention should be paid to the start and intensity of pre - holiday stocking, international crude oil prices, the US RVO final plan, South American soybean产区 weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and inventory [10].

Group 1: Market Conditions - The price of the 30-year Treasury bond contract shows a market pattern of lower near-term prices and higher long-term prices, and the 10-year Treasury bond (T2603) contract has the largest open interest among all contracts, with 220,889 lots [5]. - The trading data of various Treasury bond futures contracts are presented in detail, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, trading volume, turnover, open interest, and changes in open interest [6]. Group 2: Spot Market - On December 12, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 120.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% [7]. Group 3: Related Information - For the 10-year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K-line shows a negative K-line, with an intraday high of 108.210 yuan. The MACD indicator continues to converge below the zero - axis, and the trading volume is greater than the previous day [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - On the day, the main Treasury bond futures contracts all declined, with obvious term differentiation characteristics. The 30-year ultra - long - end contracts led the decline, while the short - end 2 - year contracts had limited declines. The main driving factors include the unexpectedly dovish Fed policy, the transmission of overseas liquidity easing, the continuation of the loose domestic capital situation with short - term pressure relief, the decline in A - share risk appetite, the increase in long - end allocation due to hedging demand, and the strengthening of the medium - and long - term easing logic by policy expectations [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On December 15, 2025, the chemical sector sentiment improved, and soda ash rebounded from a low level, with slightly increased trading volume. There are still concerns about oversupply in the market due to the recovery of previously reduced - capacity plants and the gradual release of natural soda ash production capacity in Alxa. The downstream market mainly purchases at low prices, and enterprises are cautious about prices. The current soda ash market is trading on the expectation of oversupply, but with prices at a low level and the main contract having completed the shift, it is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may show a bottom - oscillating pattern [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On December 15, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated and rose. For the soda ash 2605 (SA605) contract, the opening price was 1,123 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,167 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,123 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1,156 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.4% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 936,500 lots, an increase of 276,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 915,800 lots, an increase of 25,400 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The report provides the daily quotes of soda ash futures contracts on December 15, 2025, including the opening, high, low, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of contracts such as soda ash 2601, 2605, and 2609 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On December 15, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared to December 12, with no price fluctuations [5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - Related**: On December 15, 2025, the spot price of 5.00mm large - plate glass in the North China region was 1,040 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals - Related**: As of December 15, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.533 million tons, up 38,700 tons or 2.59% from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 717,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 815,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,400 tons. Currently, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is still at a relatively high level in history [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook It is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may show a bottom - oscillating pattern [8].

e期货日报： 美联储推出 1 外盘和上期所期货盘面情况 报告周期:日报 王建超（从业资格号：F3077383；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736） 周三伦敦现货黄金震荡走高；今日（2025 年 12 月 11 日周四） 沪金高位回落。今日沪金 2602 主力合约，盘中最高至 966.6 元/ 克，收盘在 957.9 元/克，较盘中最高价相差 8.7 元/克，较前一交易 日上涨 1.50 元/克，涨幅 0.16%。美联储如期降息 25 个基点，但同 时对明年的利率展望只有一次降息，而同时又宣布每月购买约 400 亿美元短期国债,向市场释放流动性,这种很综合的做法,导致黄 金价格冲高后回落。 图 1: 上期所黄金期货主力合约分时图 图片来源:国金期货行情软件 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 2：纽商所黄金期货主力合约价格走势分时图 oo CMX黄金 4276.9 4207.3 72.5 200 80( th and the divise PHOTOGRAPH 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 ...

研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251208 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 料油期货周报 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。主要受国际原油波动及地缘政治情绪主导,自身基本面矛 盾不突出。市场呈现"上有压力,下有支撑"的特点。上方压力来 自充裕的现货供应与趋弱的国际原油市场情绪；下方支撑则源于相 对稳定的船燃需求及潜在的供应端扰动风险。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2455 元/吨，较前一交易周 结算价下跌 46元/吨, 跌幅为 1.84%。本周最高价为 2504 元/吨, 最低价为 2394 元/吨，成交量为 1884521 手，持仓量为 185625 手，减少 16267 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货博易云 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货各合约价差进一步收窄趋于一致。可能都原 ...

型果期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 研究品种:苹果 成文日期：20251209 报告周期: 日报 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 当日（20251209），期货品种苹果 AP2605 合约大幅下跌，当 日收至 9465 点，较昨日下跌 1.29%,全日成交 116476 手，持仓 132145 手，较上一交易日增加 5972 手。 数据来源:郑州商品交易所 图：苹果 AP2605 分时图 数据来源:国金期货博易大师 1.2 品种价格 当日苹果期货各合约全部下跌,成交量 133260 手,品种持仓 量 181393 手，较上一交易日增加 2928 手。 图:苹果期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 交收营 | 令结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | 成交额(万元) | 交割行自 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...