Guo Jin Qi Huo

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黄金期货日报:继续消化前期利好,金价高位震荡-20250926
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 12:03
报告周期:日报 成文日期: 20250925 王建超 (从业资格号:F3077383;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015736) 程期货日报:继续消化前期利好,金价 | | 图 3:上期所黄金期货合约行情图 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持仓手/变化 | | | 商品名称:黄金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2510 | 854.98 | 855.80 | 857.28 | 848.78 | 851.74 | 853.14 | -3.24 | -1.84 | 53833 | 4592789.30 | 41295 | -1878 | | 2511 | 856.34 | 858.08 | 859.44 | 850.34 | 853.18 | 854.06 | -3.16 | - ...
锰硅期货日报-20250926
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 25, the manganese silicon futures main contract closed higher. The fundamentals show characteristics of "high supply and weak demand." Steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling supports short - term demand, but terminal building material demand is weak, inventory pressure remains, and with the resumption of production in Guizhou, the risk of medium - to - long - term supply surplus intensifies. Technically, the price is oscillating in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton, with balanced long - and short - term forces. In the short term, it lacks an independent driver and is likely to follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings in October and the demand callback risk after steel mills finish restocking [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5,916 yuan/ton, with a high of 5,954 yuan/ton, a low of 5,856 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,938 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,803 lots, and the open interest was 332,429 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 510,416 lots, a decrease of 18,713 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,344 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract was 27,339 contracts, and that of put options was 23,120 contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.846 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 25, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 88 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 25, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 59,475, a decrease of 539 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On September 25, the manganese ore market oscillated. In Tianjin Port, semi - carbonate was traded at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron ore was about 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese ore was about 40 yuan/ton degree. Low - price supplies were hard to find. The price of Australian lump ore was in the range of 39.5 - 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with firm quotes and pending transactions. In Qinzhou Port, the spot price of manganese ore was consolidating. The available inventory of semi - carbonate was low, with a price around 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian seeds at 35.5 - 36 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump ore at 39 - 41 yuan/ton degree, and South African high - iron ore at 30.5 yuan/ton degree [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 25, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, indicating short - term support below but also obvious upward resistance. The price has been running in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the past half - month, currently at the central position, and a strong driver is needed for a breakthrough [11].
铁矿石期货日报-20250926
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:37
图 1:铁矿石 i2601 分时图 1.2 品种价格 铁矿石期货 12 个合约,价格呈现近强远弱的反向市场格局。全 天各合约普遍上涨,幅度在 1.5 到 4.5 点之间。品种持仓量 848687 手,较上一交易日减少 8028 手,其中铁矿石 2601 合约持仓量减少 最多,减少 9319 手。 图 2:铁矿石期货日行情表 成文日期:20250926 报告周期: 日度 研究分析师:安致远(期货从业资格证号:F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 矿石期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日(20250925),期货品种铁矿石 i2601 合约震荡运行,最低 调整至 799.5 点,最高触及 808 点,收盘收于 805.5 点。成交量为 19.12 万手,较前一交易日减少 1.12 万手,持仓量为 52.97 万手, 较前一交易日减少 9319 手。 数据来源:同花顺期货通行情软件 2 现货市场 2.1 基差数据 据同花顺期货通行情数据,近 5 个交易日,主力合约铁矿石 i2601,基差小幅震荡,最大 27.2 元/吨, 最小 24.8 元/吨, 当日为 25 元/吨。 2.2 注册仓单 ...
铜期货不定期报告:F印尼大型铜矿停产损失巨大,铜价大涨
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:52
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has a significant impact on global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Event Review and Background - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, causing 2 deaths and 5 missing, and the mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - In 2024, the daily output of copper concentrate at the Grasberg mine was 208,365 tons, with the GBC mine accounting for 64% (about 133,800 tons), the DMLZ mine accounting for 32% (about 64,900 tons), and the Big Gossan mine accounting for 4% (about 8,000 tons) [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company. The Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the rest is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [2][3] 2. Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - The impact on Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales is not significant. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to July, but it is still estimated to be 433,592 tons due to inventory [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart in mid - fourth quarter of 2025 (November). The GBC mine will start phased restart and capacity increase in the first half of 2026 [5] - Freeport Indonesia's copper sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be negligible, estimated at 20,184 metric tons [5] - The GBC mine's PB2 and PB3 production blocks will restart and increase production in the first half of 2026, PB1S of PB1C will start in the second half of 2026, and the rest of PB1C will restart in 2027 [5] - In the phased restart scenario, the estimated copper production in 2026 is 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3. Market Outlook - After Freeport announced force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and long - lasting [7]
电解铜期货日报:库存偏高,铜价受拖累-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:47
电解铜期货日报: 库存偏高,铜价受拖累 1. 期货及现货市场 周一 LME 铜价偏强震荡。当日(20250923 周二)沪铜走势偏弱, 主力 2511 合约收盘在 79920 元/吨,较上一交易日收盘价下跌 240 元/吨,跌幅 0.30%。三大交易所的电解铜库存偏高,铜价受拖累。 今日现货市场氛围一般,流通端无紧张迹象,下游节前备货接近 尾声,消费积极性欠佳。当日中国主要市场精废价差继续回升,广 东地区精废价差为 1590 元/吨. 天津地区精废价差为 1546 元/吨。 2. 宏观和县本面。 海外金融市场开始关注美联储到 2025 年底将有两次降息机会, 金融氛围适当宽松。多位美联储官员在'积极降息'与'谨慎降息' 的态度间与市场沟通,积极引导市场预期。 今年国庆和中秋假日共计 8 天,长假前下游往往提前补库,价 格上涨叠加美国利率前景不明,共同抑制了中国市场的采购意愿。 目前看,采购接近尾声。当前 COMEX 的电解铜库存仍在增加, 这 抑制了美国铜价走高的积极性,拖累了铜价。沪铜由于受累于国内 整体宏观经济的压力,铜价也没出彩表现。 图 1:沪铜主力期货合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 316 ...
热卷期货周报-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:30
图:热卷 2601 周线图 成文日期:20250922 报告周期:周报 究分析师:安致远(期货从业资格证号:F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 热卷期货周报 核心观点: 本周期货盘面行情受原材料的上涨成材被动跟涨,但涨幅明显 微弱,主要还是需求上没有明显改善,市场预期不佳交易情绪消极。 据钢联数据显示,高炉开工率环比上升 0.15%至 83.98%,钢厂盈利 率环比下滑 1.30%至 58.87%,但热卷生产利润相对其他成材不错, 钢厂在利润被压缩后,一定会在成材品中做生产调配。本周全国热 卷周产量 326.49 万吨环比增加 1.35 万吨,五大品总库存环比下降 1.78 万吨至 1519.74 万吨,其中螺纹环比下降 3.58 万吨,热卷库存 环比上升 4.67 万吨;需求 321.82 万吨环比下降 4.34 万吨。热卷需 求端表现不佳,加之产量上升,抑制了现货价格上涨。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 当周热卷期货价格呈现冲高回落小幅收涨的状态,周初两天连 续快速拉升后连续两天快速回落,周五开始回稳最终小幅收阳,周 K 线收涨 10 点,从主力合约走势图不难看出当周的上涨走势比较艰 ...
生猪期货日报-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:07
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Research Variety: Live Pigs [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - The lh2511 contract of live pigs showed a volatile and weak trend throughout the day on September 23, 2025, closing at 12,665 points, down 1.48% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 44,700 lots and an open interest of 93,500 lots [2] 2.2 Variety Price - All contracts of live pig futures generally declined, and the total open interest of the variety was 249,995 lots, an increase of 2,354 lots from the previous trading day [4] 2.3 Related Market - The total trading volume of live pig options was 16,057 lots, the total open interest was 54,341 lots, an increase of 1,481 lots, and the total number of exercised options was 0 [7] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Basis Data - Yesterday's live pig basis was 275 yuan/ton, and today's basis is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight expansion of the basis [8][9] 3.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts for live pigs decreased by 1 lot compared to the previous trading day [10][11] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry News - From September 8 - 14, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises was 14.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.0%. The average ex - factory price of白条肉 was 18.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7% [12] 4.2 Technical Analysis - The current short - term trend of the lh2511 contract of live pigs continues, with moving averages in a short - term arrangement and significant price pressure [13] Group 5: Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the live pig market has not been substantially alleviated, and the support of pre - holiday stocking for prices is less than expected, causing the price rebound to be blocked. In the futures market, the lh2511 contract is in a downward trend, dominated by short - term bears, with significant suppression from moving averages. In the short term, the price of the lh2511 contract may still show a volatile and weak trend [15]
白糖期货日报-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:07
成文日期:20250923 报告周期:日报 研究品种:自粉 研究员:陈发林(从业资格号:F0262120;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015995) 自糖期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日(20250923)郑商所白糖期货主力合约(SR601)全天震荡 偏弱运行。收盘报 5444元/吨,较昨日涨跌-17元/吨,涨跌幅-0.31%, 成交 222211 手,持仓 474011 手,日增仓 17181 手。白糖期货主力 合约(SR601)Top20 会员多头持仓合计 290,664 手, 多头仓差 9,326 手,Top20 会员空头持仓合计 367,312 手,空头仓差 17,733 手。 1.2 品种价格 | 合约名称 | 收盘价(元 | 涨跌(元/ | 涨幅% | 成交量 | 持合量 | 日増仓 | 振幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | /吨) | 吨) | | (手) | (手) | (手) | | | SR511 | 5507 | 10 | 0.18% | 28363 | 56395 | -1751 | 0.67% ...
铜期货不定期报告:印尼大型铜矿停产损失巨大,铜价大涨
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 11:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has had a significant impact on the global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1) Event Review and Background Statement - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, resulting in two deaths and five missing. The mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has three underground mining areas in operation. In 2024, the daily production of copper concentrate was 208,365 tons, with the GBC area accounting for 64% [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA [2] - Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary, PT Freeport Indonesia, holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the remaining equity is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [3] 2) Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mining area stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales were not significantly affected. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to the July estimate, but copper concentrate inventory can temporarily make up for it [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart operations in mid - Q4 2025, while the phased restart and capacity increase of the GBC mine will begin in the first half of 2026 [5] - The company believes that copper sales in Q4 2025 will be negligible, at 44.5 million pounds (20,184 metric tons) [5] - The GBC mining area will restart and increase production in phases. It will not return to the pre - incident estimated level until 2027 [5] - In the scenario of phased restart and capacity increase, Freeport Indonesia estimates that copper production in 2026 will be 65% of 1.7 billion pounds, i.e., 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3) Market Outlook - Affected by the announcement of force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine, the copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly last night. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and will not disappear quickly [7]
锰硅期货日报-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 08:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the manganese silicon futures showed a volatile upward trend. Fundamentally, the recovery of hot metal production drives demand, and the relatively stable cost of manganese ore provides support. However, the pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of funds suppresses the market volatility. Technically, the price is in a low - level volatile range, with balanced long and short forces. In the short term, it may continue to consolidate in the range of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton. In the long term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand pattern after the peak season and the risk of cost reduction [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5890 yuan/ton, with a high of 5948 yuan/ton, a low of 5868 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5916 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 169,412 lots, and the open interest was 333,773 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 529,129 lots, a decrease of 9,301 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,401 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract of manganese silicon was 27,387 contracts, and the open interest of put options was 22,849 contracts, with a PCR of 0.834 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 24, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 66 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 24, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 60,014, an increase of 517 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: In the Ningxia region, the overall start - up is stable, with only a few producers reducing production due to profit factors. The pre - holiday manganese ore stocking has basically ended. Some manufacturers have slightly higher inventory but still within the normal range, while most are in the order - delivery stage with low inventory. A ferrosilicon furnace in this region plans to switch to high - silicon product production this week. In the Inner Mongolia region, the manganese silicon production is running smoothly, and the started enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. In the spot market, the inventory remains low, and the current order schedule extends to mid - October. The manganese silicon production in the southern region is showing a recovery trend, with some factories restarting two ore - heating furnaces and planning to gradually increase production to full capacity [9][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 24, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a positive line. The 5 - day moving average and the 10 - day moving average were intertwined, indicating a balance between long and short forces without a clear trend. The intraday price failed to break through the resistance level of 5950 yuan/ton and closed at 5916 yuan/ton. The support level below can be focused on around 5800 yuan/ton. There are still differences in the market, and a breakthrough signal is needed to confirm the direction [11].