Report Summary - Report Title: Urea Futures Weekly Report - Report Date: December 7, 2025 - Report Cycle: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - Last week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the urea futures rose first and then fell. The increase was mainly due to the steady increase in spot prices and the continuous active trading volume. The trading sentiment in the spot market was good, with sufficient orders from urea factories and a lack of willingness to adjust prices in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: This week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the prices of each contract of urea futures showed little difference overall, and the market showed fluctuations. The closing price of Urea 2602 (UR602) was 1,675 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 1,678 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1,707 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1,672 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.24%, a trading volume of 58,600 lots, and a position volume of 24,000 lots. The closing price of Urea 2601 (UR601) was 1,673 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 1,682 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1,710 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1,670 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.24%, a trading volume of 582,000 lots, and a position volume of 200,000 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to the quotation on December 5, the small - particle urea of Hualu Hengsheng in East China was 1,710 yuan/ton (basis of 37 yuan/ton), that of Henan Xinlianxin in Central China was 1,710 yuan/ton (basis of 37 yuan/ton), and that of Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China was 1,500 yuan/ton (basis of - 173 yuan/ton), reflecting local demand differences but with mild overall fluctuations [6]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 5, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of urea were 10,485 lots, a significant increase compared to last week [10]. 3. Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: On the supply side, the current urea production capacity and daily output are at relatively high levels in recent years, and it is expected that the daily output will hardly be lower than 190,000 tons this year. The high - level supply has a significant suppressing effect on prices, but the continuous and flexible adjustment of export policies has continuously alleviated the fundamental pressure and weakened the downward momentum of prices to some extent. On the demand side, after a round of concentrated procurement by downstream enterprises, whether the trading volume can continue to increase at the current price level still needs to be observed. Notably, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts has been continuously increasing, and the phased replenishment has gradually reduced the industrial inventory, alleviating the inventory pressure and providing some support for the market [11]. 4. Market Outlook - Last week, the urea futures rose first and then fell, supported by the strengthening of spot prices and active trading volume. The supply side remained at a high level in recent years, but the adjustment of export policies alleviated some pressure. On the demand side, the phased replenishment by downstream enterprises drove the decline of industrial inventory, providing some support for the market. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may fluctuate within a range [13][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On the current day, Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend of short - term gains and long - term losses. The 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year main contracts rose slightly, while the 30 - year contract declined against the trend. The capital situation remained loose, but the central bank net - withdrew 13.4 billion yuan on the day. Coupled with the supply - demand pressure of ultra - long bonds and differences in policy expectations, the adjustment pressure on long - term varieties increased. The trading volume of the main contracts was concentrated in the next - quarter contracts (2603 contracts), and the trading volume of the 30 - year contract reached 126.7 billion yuan, ranking first, indicating a high degree of participation of trading funds in long - term fluctuations [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - On the current day, the contract with the largest open interest among all contracts was the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, with an open interest of 233,603 lots. The report also presented detailed market data of various Treasury bond futures contracts, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, trading amount, open interest, change in open interest, settlement price, and price changes [5] 2. Spot Market - On December 3, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan of funds on the day [6] 3. Related News - In the technical analysis of the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K - line showed a positive K - line with a long lower shadow on the current day. It was currently trading below the 20 - day moving average, with an intraday high of 108.060 yuan. The MACD indicator continued to show a death cross near the zero - axis, and the trading volume was greater than that of the previous day [7]

报告周期:日报 成文日期：20251203 册 · 提记公告 研究员：王建超（从业资格号：F3077383;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015736) 金期货目报:对哈基 1 外盘和上期所期货盘面情况 周二伦敦现货黄金探底回落；今日（2025 年 12 月 3 日周三） 沪金窄幅横盘。今日沪金 2602 主力合约，收盘在 956.70 元/克，较 上一交易日收盘价下跌 1.72 元/克,跌幅 0.18%。黄金市场对哈赛 特可能出任下一届美联储主席的消息反应平淡。 图 1: 上期所黄金期货主力合约分 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 世界黄金协会称,2026年的黄金可能区间波动,2026年的黄金 变现可能继续令人吃惊，若全球经济放缓，利率进一步下降，黄金 会温和上涨,若以全球风险上升为特点的更为严重的经济低迷,黄 金可能表现强劲。 r 2444 st hand nate second the direct developed to 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper is likely to continue its strong performance in the future due to the siphoning effect of US stockpiling, a planned 10% joint production cut by domestic copper smelters in 2026 to address tight copper ore supply, stable demand, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, the LME copper price adjusted at a high level. On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, the Shanghai copper price slightly adjusted. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. Micro-positive news needs to be realized, and the copper price is adjusting at a high level [1] - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a premium of 90 - 220 yuan/ton to the December futures contract. The procurement sentiment in the spot market was average, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. The limited supply of holders, combined with the backwardation structure of the futures spread, supported the firm increase in the spot premium [1] - Today, the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets rebounded, with 3,465 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3,354 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - After the domestic market closed, LME copper inventory increased slightly by 750 tons to 162,150 tons, while the canceled warrants increased significantly by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, further confirming the siphoning effect of US copper demand [2] - The inventory data reveals the distortion of the global copper trade flow, which is the most direct pressure driving up copper prices in non - US regions. There is a "high in the US, low elsewhere" pattern, with US COMEX copper inventory as high as 418,700 short tons (about 380,000 metric tons), accounting for most of the world's exchange - visible inventory. In contrast, LME inventory is only 162,150 tons, and SHFE inventory has dropped to 97,900 tons, with China's social inventory at a relatively low level of 173,500 tons [2] - The core reason for this extreme differentiation is the market's expectation of US import tariffs on copper. Traders have transferred a large amount of inventory to the US in advance to avoid risks. As a result, a region accounting for only about 7% of global copper consumption has hoarded more than half of the world's visible inventory, leading to a sharp compression of deliverable inventory in non - US consumption regions, especially Asia, which has directly translated into "soft squeeze" pressure on the futures market and high spot premiums, driving up the prices of Shanghai and London copper [3] 3. Copper Futures Contract Quotes - The report provides detailed quotes of SHFE copper futures contracts from December 2025 to November 2026, including previous settlement prices, opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, reference settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, and positions/position changes [9]

Group 1: Market Data - The total trading volume of 12 Shanghai tin futures contracts is 264,157 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai tin contracts is 103,486 lots. The open interest of Shanghai tin contract 2601 is 53,055 lots [5][6] Group 2: Spot Market - The closing price of today's Shanghai tin 2601 contract is 312,370 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Yangtze River spot 1 tin ingots is 309,500 yuan/ton, and the basis is -2,870 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On the supply side, the global tin ore supply constraint continues to strengthen. Geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo intensify transportation risks. The resumption of production in Myanmar is slower than expected, leading to a year-on-year sharp decline of 61.61% in imports. Indonesia's export policy shrinks the global supply. Although domestic smelters operate stably, the low processing fees for tin ore and raw material shortages restrict production capacity release, driving up the price support sentiment in the spot market [8] - On the demand side, the demand in traditional fields such as consumer electronics is weak. The operating rate of solder enterprises has declined, and they are cautious about taking delivery, which restricts the increase in spot prices. The demand in emerging fields such as AI servers and new energy vehicles is growing, supporting long-term expectations [8] - In terms of inventory, although the domestic visible inventory has slightly rebounded, it remains at a historically low level overall. Overseas inventory continues to be tight [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, supported by both tight supply and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai tin will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed higher. However, due to the high - pressure background of the current supply environment and record - high inventory, it is still difficult for the synthetic rubber futures price to continue rising. Future market trends need to focus on factors such as new production capacity, domestic real estate and infrastructure policies, and crude oil price changes [2][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On December 3, 2025, the synthetic rubber 2601 (BR2601) opened at 10,690 yuan/ton, with a high of 10,755 yuan/ton, a low of 10,545 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 10,575 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 123,000 lots, a decrease of 48,600 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,000 lots, a decrease of 6,617 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices | Contract Name | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Latest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Increase (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BR Rubber 2512 | 10,605 | 10,510 | - | 60 | 0.57 | 340 | 1,138 | | BR Rubber 2601 | 10,690 | 10,545 | 10,575 | 50 | 0.48 | 122,663 | 38,986 | | BR Rubber 2602 | 10,700 | 10,745 | - | - | - | - | - | [4] 3.2 Spot Movement - On December 3, the quotes of high - cis butadiene rubber in the Shanghai market were as follows: Yanshan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Yangzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Dushanzi Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Daqing Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan Petrochemical's BR9000 was priced at 10,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The trading method was self - pick - up [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Recently, due to changes in the market environment, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, the available circulating supply has tightened, the cost support has gradually strengthened, and the synthetic rubber futures price has rebounded from a low level [5] 3.3.2 Policy and Market Dynamics - On December 3, data released by the Thai Rubber Administration showed that in Thailand's three major central rubber markets, Songkhla RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, Surat Thani RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg, and Nakhon Si Thammarat RSS3 rubber fell 0.92% to 59 Thai baht/kg [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - As of early December, the capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber reached a high of 76% for the year, and the capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber also increased to over 80%. The pressure on the butadiene supply side comes from both the abundant domestic production and the high level of imports [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean oil futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract slightly closing higher and a significant decrease in open interest. The market is currently influenced by both long and short factors. The firm spot price and high positive basis support the futures price, while the medium - to - high domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil restricts the upward price movement. It is expected that the soybean oil price will continue to oscillate within a range in the short term. Key factors to watch include the domestic inventory reduction pace, weather changes in South American soybean - producing areas, and external variables such as biodiesel policies at the macro - level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On December 3, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating and consolidating trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 161,570 lots, and the open interest was 301,309 lots, with a decrease of 17,961 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 300,450 lots, and the total open interest was 823,989 lots, an increase of 9,061 lots compared to the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The daily trading volume of soybean oil options was 19,261 lots, the open interest was 90,263 lots, with a decrease of 838 lots, and the exercise volume was 0 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,550 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,278 yuan/ton, and the basis was 272 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On December 2, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, net - bought 15,500 lots of corn futures contracts, net - bought 3,500 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - sold 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - bought 3,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil contracts showed an overall oscillating trend this week, following the fluctuation rhythm of international crude oil. The main influencing factors were OPEC gradually relaxing production cuts, the release of spare production capacity in oil - producing countries like Saudi Arabia, and the increase in medium - sulfur crude oil supply, which supported the fuel oil supply and might further grow after refinery maintenance ended. Russia's refinery operating rate declined due to intensified US sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks, but the high - sulfur fuel oil shipment in November was expected to be 2.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons, showing signs of supply recovery. If the situation in Ukraine eases, it might drive a further increase in Russian supply [2]. - The fuel oil market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, affected by crude oil oscillations, inventory fluctuations, and marginal changes in industrial supply and demand. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the market is suppressed by crude oil prices above and supported by refinery substitution demand and trade easing below, lacking a continuous trend driver. Future attention should be paid to crude oil price trends, geopolitical situation changes, Singapore fuel oil inventory changes, domestic fuel oil production, and import - export data changes [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,501 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,522 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,426 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 2,548,897 lots, and the open interest was 201,892 lots, a decrease of 21,702 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern of near - term high and long - term low, showing a near - strong and long - weak performance overall. The liquidity of the main contract FU2601 continued to be concentrated, and the open interest of the FU2602 contract also showed a steady increase [6]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - The fuel oil benchmark price decreased compared with the beginning of last month, but specific values were not provided in the text [10].

12 TF2512 T2603 2 现货市场 所有合约中最多。 图表 2：国债期货行情表 | 合约代码 | 今开启 | 酷影视 | 智能投 | 成交星 | 成交金额 | 持仓屋 | 持仓变化 | 之收拾 | 令程原 | 前结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.422 | 102.45 | 102.316 | 2,184 | 447,339.38 | 1,551 | 10 | 102.416 | 102.414 | 102.41 | 0.006 | 0.004 | | TS2603 | 102.42 | 102.428 | 102.388 | 29,140 | 5,968,384.26 | 62,248 | -224 | 102.388 | 102.394 | 102.41 | -0.022 | -0.016 | | TS2606 | 102,444 | 102.456 | 102,428 | 197 | 40,362.47 | ...

12 636984 2601 1212 图 2：氧化铝期货日行情表 20251202 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今州區 | 图层(N | 图纸价 | 收盘价 | 程总容案例 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交領 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:室化铝 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2512 | 2620 | 2622 | 2630 | 2602 | 2611 | 2613 | -9 | -7 | 195 | 1019.28 | 2565 | -195 | | 2601 | 2682 | 2687 | 2697 | 2661 | 2670 | 2677 | -12 | -5 | 177845 | 952423.86 | 358708 | -1212 | | 2602 | 2707 | 2710 | 2720 | 2690 | 2696 | 2704 | -11 | -3 | 26448 | 143057.8 ...