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Report Overview - Research variety: Caustic soda [1] - Report cycle: Weekly - Date of report: June 23, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda futures main - contract price continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, and the spot price also continued to fall. High - price transactions of caustic soda are difficult at present. The main downstream maintains a high purchase volume, while non - aluminum downstream remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the futures market may continue to operate weakly in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. As of the reporting date, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The highest price was [not given], the lowest was [not given], the open interest was [not given] million lots, a decrease of [not given] lots from last week, and the trading volume was [not given] million lots, an increase of [not given] million lots from last week. The futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. Currently, the caustic soda futures price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [2][11] 3.2 Spot Market - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from last week. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, with load decreasing; equipment in Northwest and East China resumed operation after maintenance, with load increasing [5] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 36.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.57% from last week [5] - Price: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda this week, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and the new order signing situation was poor, resulting in enterprises selling at reduced prices. The transaction price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.90% from last week; in Jiangsu, it was [not clear], a decrease of 1.04% [5][11] 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot market: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and new order signing was poor, forcing enterprises to cut prices [11] - Futures market: The caustic soda futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. The current price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [11] 3.4 Associated Varieties Analysis - Upstream raw materials: The price of raw salt remained stable, and the coal price continued to decline in a volatile manner, causing the cost side to continue to decline [11] - Downstream: The operating rate of alumina increased slightly this week, but the overall incremental demand for caustic soda was limited. Non - aluminum downstream demand still showed no obvious increase, and the procurement of caustic soda was mainly for rigid demand [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Crude oil [1] - Report cycle: Weekly [1] - Report date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Core Views - From June 16 - 22, 2025, Brent crude oil futures fluctuated upward with a weekly increase of 2.5%, reaching a nearly 5 - month high of $79.04 per barrel. Geopolitical risks were the core driving factor, and the summer demand peak season and OPEC+ supply strategy adjustment also supported the price. The market showed dual characteristics of "risk - premium dominance and fundamental support" [3] Group 3: Futures Market Overview - From June 16 - 20, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures August contract closed at $77.32 per barrel last Friday with a weekly amplitude of 3.43%. The WTI crude oil futures August contract closed at $74.04 per barrel with a gain of 3.51%. The main crude oil contract SC2512 on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange reported 566.6 yuan per barrel, with a maximum of 582.9 yuan per barrel, a minimum of 508.3 yuan per barrel, and a weekly increase of 8.82% [3] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - The spot premium in the Middle East continued, and Dubai crude oil was at a premium of about $2 per barrel compared to Brent futures [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market faced multiple pressures of oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory this week, with a pessimistic market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand drivers for soda ash were insufficient, and the price remained weak after breaking through the previous low. In the long term, the soda ash futures and spot markets may continue to be under pressure, although the summer maintenance period may have a certain phased impact on futures prices [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Analysis - The cost of soda ash production is mainly composed of fuel. Rising prices of raw salt, coal, and natural gas will increase production costs, which may lead to price increases and strengthen the market. Recently, the continuous decline in soda ash costs has weakened the cost - side support and increased the downward pressure on prices [8] Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Macroeconomic and Policy Impact**: RMB depreciation (USD/CNY exceeding 7.2) supported export - oriented enterprises, with the export quotation of East China soda ash to Southeast Asia rising 5 - 8% month - on - month, but domestic demand remained weak. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut (over 60% probability of a rate cut in September) led to a short - term rebound in soda ash futures due to macro - sentiment, but the industrial logic of high inventory restricted the increase [9] - **Futures Expectation**: The futures market anticipates a peak season for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year (e.g., the installation volume in Q4 may increase by 30% quarter - on - quarter). Some funds have pre - arranged in the far - month contracts (2509), resulting in a smaller decline in futures prices than in spot prices and a narrowing of the basis [11] Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Each ton of soda ash production consumes about 1.5 tons of raw salt, accounting for 30% - 40% of production costs. In the joint - alkali process, each ton of soda ash production consumes about 0.3 tons of coal, with coal costs accounting for about 20% - 25% [12] - **Mid - stream Processing**: Soda ash (sodium carbonate) and caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) are used in industries such as glass, chemicals, and textiles, and can be substituted in some scenarios. The production of 1 ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali process produces 0.8 tons of synthetic ammonia as a by - product, and the price of synthetic ammonia affects the profits of joint - alkali enterprises [12] - **Downstream Terminal Industries and Consumption - related Products - Glass**: In June, the daily melting volume of float glass was 165,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%, and the number of cold - repaired production lines increased, suppressing the demand for soda ash. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in June was 182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%, supporting the incremental demand for soda ash, but the current inventory days of photovoltaic glass were 25 days (the warning line is 20 days) [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The opening price of the main contract BR2507 of synthetic rubber today was 11,750 yuan/ton, with the highest price during the session at 11,810 yuan/ton, the lowest at 11,665 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 11,770 yuan/ton. The daily trading volume was 81,100 lots, and the open interest was 15,100 lots [3] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors Analysis - The aftermath of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, but the situation has not further escalated, and its driving effect on the market has weakened [3] - Due to the replenishment of raw material butadiene, it failed to significantly boost the upward movement, and the cost side did not strongly support synthetic rubber [4]

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股指期货日报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20250619），A 股三大指数今日集体回调,截止收盘,沪指 跌 0.79%，收报 3362.11 点；深证成指跌 1.21%，收报 10051.97 点；创业板指跌 1.36%，收报 2026.82 点。沪深两市成交额达到 12506 亿，较昨日放量 596 亿。股指期货方面，四大股指依旧在震 荡区间内运行，截至收盘也集体出现了回调。 成文日期: 20250619 研究品种:股指期1 研究分析师：武吟秋 期货咨询证号 (F03087154&Z0018989) 报告周期: 日度 图 1: IF 主力合约分时走势图 研究热线: 028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 2：IF 主力合约日 K 图 | 合约名 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅% | 成交 | 持仓 | 日増仓 | 资金流 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | | | | 量 | 를 | | ...

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撰写时间 2025.6.13 回顾周期:日报 撰写品种:豆粕 研究员:漆建华 咨询证号(Z0017731) 豆粕目报 期货行情回顾 | | 现货报价 | 涨跌 | 蛋白含量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张家港 | 2850 | 10 | 43% | | 大津 | 2950 | 0 | 43% | | 日照 | 2860 | -10 | 43% | | 东莞 | 2880 | 20 | 43% | 图片来源:国金期货行情软 件 2025 年 6 月 13 日，豆粕期货主力 M2509 合约全天偏弱势震荡整理。以 3055 元/吨为开盘价，价格先是短时间冲高至日内最高价 3057 元/吨，随后全天在 3040- 3060 元/吨区间波动, 盘中最低下探至 3037 元/吨, 收盘报收于 3041 元/吨, 下跌 9 元/吨，参考跌幅 0.16%,减仓缩量,资金呈净流出,市场情绪偏谨慎,最终以阴线 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉:4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com. ...

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