PTA PTA PTA TA PTA 6 TA TA TA 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 PTA PTA TA PTA 考虑到 TA 库存绝对水平仍然偏高,如果能源再次出现调整,市场风险可能仍然未消退, 因此,需要做好风险管理. 并考虑进行套期保值以应对潜在的市场风险。 图 3：TA 主力合约日 K 图片来源:国余期货行情软件 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料,我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容,但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性,报告中的信 息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内 容及最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失 承担任何责任。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 ...

Report Summary 1. Futures Market - The UR2509 contract had a high of 1904, a low of 1725, and closed at 1882 on May 8, with a weekly increase of 7.05% [5] 2. Regional Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices varied by region For example, Shandong's (cash - on - delivery ex - factory) price closed at 1805, down 0.25% week - on - week; Guangxi's closed at 1980, up 1.74% week - on - week; and the national average closed at 1829, down 0.89% week - on - week [7] 3. International Market - For small - particle urea, FOB prices in the Black Sea and Baltic increased by 1.13% and 1.14% respectively, while FOB China decreased by 2.43% CFR Brazil increased by 3.27% [8] - For large - particle urea, FOB Middle East net price increased by 6.62%, and FOB Middle East (US source net reverse calculation) increased by 4.89% [8] - Other international prices also had different changes, such as FOB Iran down 1.32% and Venezuela/Trinidad up 4.05% [9] 4. Inventory - Yantai port inventory was 5.5 on May 8, up 3.77% from April 24 and down 36.05% year - on - year - Total port urea inventory was 12.3, up 6.96% from April 24 and down 38.81% year - on - year - Domestic enterprise inventory was 95.25, down 6.80% from April 24 and up 133.46% year - on - year [10]

028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 ...

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1882 / 1890 / 1859 / 42.5 1. 20.51 0.35 1.71 88.91% 86.8% 2.09 2. 09 19 / 1% 4. 20 5. 6. 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 3. 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 131 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 ...

Group 1 - SMM1 price range is 123,500 - 126,300, with a reference price of 124,900; other price - related ranges and reference values are 750 / 2,100 - 2,400 (reference 2,250), 100, 0 - 300 (reference 150), and 25 [3] - On May 7, 2025, the value is 24,631; 223 is related to LME on May 7, 2025, with a value of 198,312 and a change of 1,470, representing a 9.4% change [3] Group 2 - NI main - continuous price data: 123,630.0, 123,880.0, 124,540.0, 123,030.0, a change of - 450.0, and a change rate of - 0.363 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The subsequent market will be priced based on uncertainties such as geopolitics, tariffs, and overseas economic prospects, and the short - term silver price will maintain high - level volatile operation [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Disk Situation - The main contract of Shanghai Silver had little fluctuation today. The opening price was 8,240 yuan/kg, the highest price was 8,280 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 8,252 yuan/kg [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Today's spot silver price was 32.959 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.192 US dollars/ounce and a change rate of - 0.58% [4] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index in April was announced as - 0.29, with the previous value being - 0.17. Facing the current weak US economic data, Trump's tariff policy is having a fatal backlash effect. US importers' pre - stocking behavior to deal with the 300 billion US dollars of commodity tariffs has led to a sharp increase in inventory and exacerbated economic fluctuations. Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed can be patient and does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and Trump's statement "will not affect the Fed's work at all" [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on Shanghai Lead, written on May 6, 2025, with a daily review cycle [1] - The researcher is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Due to the weak performance on the demand side, there is a possibility of continued correction in lead prices in the short term [3] Group 3: Macro Aspect - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.8 from the previous value, reaching the lowest level in the past three months [3] Group 4: Supply Side - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with an increasing operating rate, but there was a month - on - month production cut in April due to partial maintenance; the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries has limited the supply of recyclers, causing some smelters to suspend production due to cost issues and thus reducing the operating rate [3] Group 5: Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for consumption. The willingness to stock up before the holiday is low, downstream purchases are limited, and the order volume is relatively low [3] Group 6: Inventory Aspect - As of April 30, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 44,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from April 28 and 4,500 tons from April 24 [3] Group 7: Technical Aspect - From the hourly line, the futures price has fallen below the oscillation range; from the daily line, the price has fallen below the support level [3]

二、现货方面 撰写品种：沪银 撰写时间：2025/05/06 回顾周期：日度 沪银日度报告 一、盘面情况 沪银主力合约今日波动不大，开盘价为 8156 元/千克，最高价是 8280 元/千克，收盘价是 8235 元/千克。 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、甄别 和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的信息或 所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内容及 最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担 任何责任。 今日现货白银价格为 33.058 美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨 0.554 美 元，涨幅 1.70%。 三、宏观分析 美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，陷入负增长；4 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI48.7，略高于预期但较前值小幅回落，仍处于收缩区间。四 月美国非农就业人数微降至 17.7 万人，好于此前预期，四月美国失业率持 平于 4.2%。关注中美经济数据及关税谈判进展。 四 ...

宏观方面，美国 4 月非农就业新增 17.7 万人（预期 13 万），ISM 服务业 PMI 升至 51.6（预期 50.3），显示经济韧性，市场对美联储 6 月降息预期降温。 撰写品种：沪铝 撰写时间 2025 年 05 月 06 日 星期二 回顾周期；日度 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铝日度报告 沪铝主力合约价格今日高开低走下行走势，成交量相比较上个交易日放量。al2506 持仓量 183,758 手，成交量 138,706 手，跌幅 1.00%。 图1：沪铝期货主力合约al2506 走势图 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的 信息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报 告内容及最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致 的损失承担任何责任。 现货方面，截至 5 月 6 日，国内电解铝三地库存 63.6 万吨，较节 ...