Guo Jin Qi Huo
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生猪期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current hog market is under short - term pressure, with prices more likely to fall than rise. The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to increased group - farm slaughter, cooling secondary fattening, and insufficient consumption boost. It is expected that the price of the hog futures lh2601 contract will maintain a volatile and weak pattern [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 5, 2025, the hog lh2601 futures contract showed a volatile upward trend, closing at 11,945 points, up 1.57% from the previous day's settlement price. The total trading volume for the day was 136,100 lots, and the open interest was 136,400 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of hog futures contracts varied. The total open interest of the variety was 352,273 lots, a decrease of 10,117 lots compared to the previous trading day [4] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of hog options for the day was 25,809 lots, and the total open interest was 67,555 lots, an increase of 1,879 lots in open interest, with a total of 41 lots exercised on the day [7] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - Yesterday's hog basis was 510 yuan/ton, and today's basis is 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's basis has significantly converged [8][9] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the Dalian Commodity Exchange's warehouse receipt report, today's registered warehouse receipts are 90 lots, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous trading day [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products monitoring data, the planned hog slaughter volume of key provincial - level breeding enterprises in November is 13.9047 million heads, a 2.54% decrease compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The planned slaughter volumes of enterprises in various regions showed more decreases than increases. Jiangsu had the most significant increase, with a month - on - month increase of over 7%, while Fujian had the most significant decrease, with a month - on - month decrease of over 11% [10] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily K - line of the hog lh2601 futures variety closed in a positive pattern. It briefly rose during the day, with the K - line near the middle track of the BOLL line, which is showing a narrowing state [11]
沪锌期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the opening of the domestic export window may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market - On October 29, 2025, the price of Shanghai zinc futures rose slightly against the trend, closing at 22,430 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,143 lots, and the open interest was 118,849 lots [2] 3.2 Futures Market - Variety Price - There are 12 contracts of Shanghai zinc futures today, with a total open interest of 210,352 lots, an increase of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract zn2512 decreased by 1,844 lots [5] - Specific data for each contract, including the latest price, opening price, trading volume, open interest, daily increase in open interest, increase rate, rise and fall, lowest price, highest price, previous settlement price, and settlement price, are provided in the table [6] 3.3 Fundamental Situation - The total supply remains at a high level. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the month-on-month increase in consumption is not obvious. However, the production of galvanized coils and die-cast alloys is at the second-highest level in the same period in history, indicating that the absolute level of terminal demand is not low. The limited seasonal increase has led to the "peak season not being prosperous" [9] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the opening of the domestic export window in the fourth quarter may alleviate the expectation of tight supply. The Shanghai zinc futures are likely to lack a trending market in the short term and will probably maintain a range-bound oscillation [10]
烧碱期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:26
Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: October 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The caustic soda futures price oscillated and consolidated today, while the spot price remained weakly stable. Most chlor-alkali enterprises are operating at normal loads, and the demand side remains lukewarm. The enthusiasm of downstream operators and traders to enter the market is not high. It is expected that the caustic soda futures market may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of major downstream industries and macro sentiment in the future [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, maintained an oscillating trend. The closing price was 2,361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 34,000 lots compared to the previous day, with a total trading volume of 302,000 lots. The open interest was 134,000 lots, an increase of 1,952 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Today, 12 caustic soda futures contracts oscillated and consolidated. The total open interest of the variety was 212,800 lots, an increase of 8,561 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 1,952 lots, and the capital inflow was 34.8 million yuan [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - Today, the put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed stronger than the call options, with overall limited fluctuations [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province remained weak today. Most enterprises' inventories increased at the end of the month, and the sales were poor. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong was 790 - 830 yuan/ton, 750 - 810 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 790 - 860 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,210 - 1,330 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong Province were stable today, and the chlor-alkali profit was 583 yuan/ton [12] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract closed with a small positive line, maintaining a low-level oscillation. The price was suppressed by the 10-day moving average [12]
白糖期货日报-20251031
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 07:26
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Nanning warehouse white sugar spot price remains stable, the ICE white sugar futures main contract price continues to be weak, and the overall support for domestic white sugar futures prices is average. The price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) continues a small - scale rebound and shows a strong trend throughout the day. In the short term, due to the divergence in the price trends of domestic and foreign white sugar, there may still be significant differences between bulls and bears in the price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601), and the price may generally continue a wide - range volatile trend at a low level [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 29, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange white sugar futures main contract (SR601) fluctuated strongly throughout the day, closing at 5,494 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous day. The trading volume was 182,203 lots, the open interest was 391,035 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 9,001 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) were 261,716 lots, with a long position difference of - 4,043 lots, and the total short positions were 313,807 lots, with a short position difference of - 13,851 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Different white sugar futures contracts showed different price changes. For example, SR511 closed at 5,426 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 0.72%; SR603 closed at 2,459 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.59%, etc. [3]. - **Option Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options on this day was 69,226 lots, with 44,991 lots for call options and 24,235 lots for put options. The open interest of the variety was 289,843 lots, with 180,934 lots for call options and 108,909 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.6019 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quote**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse on this day was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous observation day [6]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures on this day was 7,625, a decrease of 70 from the previous trading day [9][10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On October 28, the opening price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.5 cents/pound, the highest price was 14.59 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.28 cents/pound, and the closing price was 14.39 cents/pound, down 0.07 cents/pound or 0.48% from the previous day. The open interest was 466,050 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 3,573 lots [11]. - **Basis Data**: The white sugar basis on this day was 286 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to weaken [14].
黄金期货周报:沪金创1001元/克新高,黄金如期大幅回落-20251028
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold started to adjust this week. The SHFE gold futures contract 2512 reached a high of 1001.96 yuan/gram, then dropped sharply due to the potential short - term cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war, which cooled the risk - aversion sentiment. The December main contract of COMEX gold fell 376.8 dollars/ounce, a decline of 8.57%, and the December main contract of SHFE gold fell 78.34 yuan/gram, a decline of 7.82%. [1] - After a sharp and rapid short - term rise, it is highly likely that gold will adjust after reaching a key resistance level. Considering the 1000 - dollar/ounce increase in the past two months, the adjustment needs time and space. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend due to central bank gold purchases in emerging markets and global de - dollarization. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory (1. Disk Situation) - Last week, gold showed signs of exhaustion after continuous sharp upward movements. The December main contract of COMEX gold rose for the second time on Monday and hit a record high, then declined for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday, and hovered at the bottom on Thursday and Friday. The SHFE gold futures generally followed the COMEX trend, with a slightly smaller decline due to the RMB exchange rate. [2] - Based on the K - lines of the COMEX main December contract, the adjustment of gold may not be over. Although there is capital entering the SHFE market to push up the price after the decline, the adjustment of SHFE gold is hard to end before the external market stabilizes. [2] Group 4: Market Data - The table shows the weekly market data of SHFE gold futures, including the opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, open interest, open interest change, settlement price, trading volume, and trading amount of different delivery months such as au2511, au2512, etc. [3]
工业硅期货周报-20251028
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 06:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the main contract of industrial silicon, si2601, closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous week. The trading volume was 709,000 lots, and the open interest was 186,000 lots [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly within the range during the week. As of Friday's close, the main contract (si2601) rose 120 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a 1.36% increase, with a high of 9,090 yuan/ton and a low of 8,765 yuan/ton, and an open interest of 186,000 lots [3] - **Variety Market**: Among the weekly quotes of industrial silicon futures, the contract price of industrial silicon (si2610) was the highest, and that of industrial silicon (si2511) was the lowest [3] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Condition**: From October 20 - 24, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stagnant, with the center staying at a low level. On October 23, SMM's East - China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was at 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; 441 silicon was at 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; 421 silicon was at 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; 3303 silicon was at 10,400 - 10,600 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [5] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the registered warehouse receipts of industrial silicon this week were 48,327 lots, a decrease of 1,787 lots from last week. The short - term market was in a wait - and - see equilibrium state [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: In terms of market transactions, there were some silicon powder orders in the north during the week, and the transaction price decreased compared with the previous round. Other downstream users had strong price - pressing sentiment, and the market was dominated by low - price transactions [6] - **Supply Side**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. Near the end of October, most silicon plants in the southwest planned to gradually reduce production or stop production. Therefore, the output of industrial silicon next week is expected to change little on a week - on - week basis, and it will show a downward trend in November [6] - **Demand Side**: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. There were some silicon powder orders released in the northern region during the week, and the price of some concluded powder orders dropped by more than 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. The weekly operating rate of the silicone industry was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance would resume production next week, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly to around 70%. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry changed little, with the primary aluminum alloy sector operating steadily, while the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy sector was restricted by the tight supply of raw material scrap aluminum [6][7] 3.4 Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the industrial silicon market was in a "weak supply and demand" dilemma this week. The core of the market game lies in the confrontation between the rising cost in the dry season in the southwest region and the collective weakness of downstream demand. Currently, the downward space of the market is supported by cost, but the upward space is limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the silicon price will mainly fluctuate in the future [8]
棕榈油期货日报-20251023
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 05:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent performance at the origin and demand sides is decent, but there is still a lack of obvious bullish factors. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the oil market, palm oil prices both at home and abroad continued to decline slightly on the day. The p2601 contract of Dalian palm oil still rose and then fell during the day, with four consecutive days of decline in the daily line. In the short term, the price of the p2601 contract is likely to continue the volatile consolidation trend. In the future, attention should be paid to the biodiesel policy, origin data, and the trends of other oils [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 21, 2025, the price of the main palm oil p2601 contract opened lower and consolidated during the day, rose in the afternoon session and then fell with a reduction in positions at the end of the session, closing at 9,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 553,500 lots, an increase of 92,100 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 333,700 lots, a decrease of 10,600 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The total trading volume of all palm oil futures contracts was 628,800 lots, and the total open interest of the variety was 477,500 lots, a decrease of 11,100 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: On the same day, the main 01 contract of the Malaysian BMD futures fell again, closing at 4,508 ringgit/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from the previous day's closing price [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis Data**: The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in China on the day was 9,390 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's average price, and the basis continued to strengthen [5]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts on the day was 600 lots, with no increase or decrease from the previous day [8]. - **Import Profit**: The cost of importing Malaysian palm oil increased slightly on the day, and the import profit loss deepened [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Export and Production Data**: According to the data of high - frequency institutions ITS and AmSpec Agri, the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of October were 1.0448 million tons and 0.9651 million tons respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 2.5% respectively compared with the same period last month. According to the data of SPPOMA, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of October increased by 1.45%, and the output increased by 2.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Policy**: Indonesian government officials held a meeting to discuss the preparations for B50 (mixing 50% of palm oil biodiesel with diesel) and E10 (mixing 10% of ethanol with gasoline), and considered restricting the export volume of crude palm oil to increase the production of biodiesel [9][11]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 17, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a weekly increase of 26,000 tons; the contract volume was 40,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Recently, the arrival volume of purchased palm oil in China has gradually increased, the market trading has remained light, and the inventory has slowly accumulated [11].
苹果期货日报-20251022
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 11:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of the apple AP2601 contract in the futures market may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term. This is supported by the scarcity of high - quality apple supply in the fundamental aspect and the strong bullish sentiment in the technical aspect [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 20, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8,865 points, a 2.26% increase from the previous day. The trading volume was 159,727 lots, and the open interest was 142,886 lots, an increase of 14,247 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The report presents the price data of multiple apple futures contracts (AP510 - AP605), including yesterday's settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, today's closing price, today's settlement price, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and trading amount [6]. - **Related Market**: Apple options traded 31,546 lots in total on the day, with a total open interest of 32,404 lots, an increase of 3,392 lots. There were 26 lots exercised on the day [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The spot price of apples on the day was 7,500 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,798 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of - 1,298 yuan/ton [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Currently, late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market for trading, with high - quality fruits commanding premium prices. Good - quality apples are seeing stable to slightly higher prices. Traders in western regions such as Gansu and northern Shaanxi are actively ordering high - quality fruits, and the warehousing work in some production areas has begun [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily K - line chart, the apple futures formed a medium - sized positive line on the day, with a relatively long real body and closing higher than the previous trading day's closing price, indicating that the bullish force was dominant and driving the price up [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook Fundamentally, the coloring of apples in the western production areas is 10 days behind schedule, the bag - removing in Shandong is postponed by half a month, and the red apples are on the market 15 days later than last year. Fruit farmers in the production areas report that the amount of high - quality fruits has decreased by half, and the proportion of high - quality fruits has declined. The warehousing volume in Gansu is lower than last year, the effective inventory in Shandong is lower than last year, and although the warehousing volume in Shaanxi is large, the proportion of high - quality fruits is not high. The scarcity of high - quality supply provides strong support for prices. Technically, the market is bullish, and the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. In the short term, the price of the AP2601 contract is likely to continue to be volatile and upward - trending [10][12].
纯碱期货日报-20251021
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 07:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current weak demand situation for soda ash has not improved. The "anti - involution" production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may lead to a decrease in the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term improvement in shipments is mainly due to downstream passive replenishment at low prices rather than demand recovery [7]. - Future price trends depend on multiple factors. A drop in industry operating rate below 80% or a delay in the commissioning of Yuanxing Energy may trigger a periodic rebound. The effectiveness of domestic real - estate policies in promoting inventory reduction of float glass will improve the demand outlook for heavy soda ash. The implementation of macro - level stimulus policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may also change market sentiment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 17, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated and closed lower. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1240 yuan/ton, the highest was 1240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1196 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1.045 million lots, a decrease of 104,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.406 million lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The prices of different soda ash futures contracts all declined on October 17, 2025. For example, the soda ash 2609 contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton or 1.59%, the soda ash 2601 M contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton or 1.47%, and the soda ash 2605 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton or 1.75%. The domestic soda ash spot market prices remained unchanged on this day [4][5]. 3. Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - related**: The overall demand for glass in the peak season is weak. Despite the improvement in profits, the industry's operating rate has increased, and enterprise inventories have continuously increased, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment and consecutive drops in the glass futures market [6]. - **Fundamentals - related**: Coal prices are stable at 850 yuan/ton, but the price of raw salt has decreased to 280 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process has dropped to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 82 yuan/ton. The industry's loss - making ratio has expanded to 65% [6]. 4. Market Outlook - The weak demand for soda ash persists. The production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may reduce the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term shipment improvement is due to downstream passive replenishment. Attention should be paid to factors such as industry operating rate, the commissioning progress of Yuanxing Energy, real - estate policies, and macro - level stimulus policies [7][8].
不锈钢期货日报-20251021
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 07:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel futures market showed an oscillating trend. The market is in a weak - balance state with insufficient demand in the peak season, supply - side profit constraints, and inventory reduction providing support. Short - term stainless - steel futures may continue to oscillate within a range, and policy expectations and the "Silver October" performance of the demand side will be the key variables to break the range [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel ss2512 contract oscillated. The opening price dropped to the lowest point of 12,500 and then rebounded to the highest point of 12,615. The trading volume was large at the opening and when the price reached the highest point. The position increased continuously, with a trading volume of 125,870 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. Most contract prices declined slightly, with far - term contracts having a relatively larger decline. The total position of the variety was 289,810 lots, an increase of 5,297 lots from the previous trading day. The position of the active contract ss2512 increased by 7,755 lots, while that of the sub - main contract ss2511 decreased by 2,869 lots [2][4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2512 changed significantly, with a maximum of 950 yuan/ton and a minimum of 163 yuan/ton, and 423 yuan/ton on the day. Spot prices of 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate varied in different regions, such as 12,700 yuan/ton in Foshan Yongjin, 12,900 yuan/ton in Wuxi Yongjin, etc. [5]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In the past 10 trading days, registered warehouse receipts decreased overall, from a maximum of 87,803 tons to a minimum of 83,231 tons. On the day, it was 83,231 tons, a decrease of 776 tons from the previous day [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: The demand in the downstream consumption peak season is not optimistic. The total inventory in the Wuxi and Foshan stainless - steel markets increased to 909,000 tons in October, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, indicating that demand is lower than expected [7]. - **Supply**: Overseas goods are arriving at ports, and domestic stainless - steel production in October has increased, intensifying the cautious wait - and - see sentiment of enterprises. - **Cost**: The supply disturbance of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened. The procurement of nickel ore for new HPAL projects in 2026 has started, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory has accumulated to about 43,600 tons in October, indicating sufficient supply for smelters [8]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas, and the improvement of downstream consumption needs to be continuously tracked [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures market may continue to oscillate in the short term. Policy expectations and the performance of the "Silver October" demand side are the key factors to break the range. The risk of a callback due to intensified industrial negative feedback should be watched out for [9].