Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The copper price is under pressure due to high inventory levels across major exchanges, combined with factors such as uncertain US interest rates, subdued downstream procurement, and overall macro - economic pressures in China, resulting in a lackluster performance of copper prices recently [1][2][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - On Monday, LME copper prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On Tuesday (20250923), Shanghai copper (SHFE) had a weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous trading day [1]. - The spot market atmosphere was ordinary, with no signs of tightness in the circulation end. Downstream pre - holiday stocking was nearly finished, and consumer enthusiasm was poor. The refined - scrap copper price spread in major Chinese markets continued to rise, with 1,590 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,546 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Overseas financial markets are focusing on the possibility of two Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, creating a moderately loose financial environment. Fed officials are communicating with the market about 'aggressive rate cuts' and 'cautious rate cuts' to guide market expectations [2]. - The 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday usually prompts downstream enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. However, price increases and uncertain US interest rates have curbed procurement in the Chinese market, and the procurement is almost over [2]. - The increasing COMEX electrolytic copper inventory is suppressing the upward momentum of US copper prices, and the overall macro - economic pressure in China is also weighing on SHFE copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook The increasing copper inventories in COMEX and SHFE delivery warehouses, despite a slight decline in LME electrolytic copper inventory, have led to insufficient upward momentum for copper prices. Recently, the copper price trend has become more cautious due to fundamental factors [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures market was affected by rising raw material prices, causing finished products to follow suit, but the increase was weak due to lack of demand improvement and negative trading sentiment [2] - According to Steel Union data, the blast furnace operating rate rose 0.15% to 83.98% week - on - week, while the steel mill profitability dropped 1.30% to 58.87%. The production profit of hot - rolled coils was relatively good, so steel mills would adjust production. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in China increased by 1.35 million tons to 3.2649 billion tons, and the total inventory of five major products decreased by 1.78 million tons to 15.1974 billion tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 4.67 million tons, and demand decreased by 4.34 million tons to 3.2182 billion tons, suppressing the rise of spot prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The hot - rolled coil futures price showed a state of rising first, then falling, and finally closing slightly higher. The upward trend was difficult, indicating weak market bullish sentiment [3] - **Variety Market**: As of September 19, the opening price of the HC2601 main contract of hot - rolled coils was 3361 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3374 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3417 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3339 yuan/ton, and it rose 10 yuan/ton this week [6] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The average price of Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coils in major Chinese cities was 3407 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot profit was 150 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. The weekly average trading volume decreased 6.1% week - on - week, but Friday's restocking led to a high - volume trading day [7] - **Basis Data**: The basis between Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot and the futures main contract was 46 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference between East China and North China narrowed by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with weak motivation for northern steel to move south [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: The spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would continue to promote supply - side structural reform in the steel industry and ban new production capacity, with a neutral short - term impact on the market [11] - **Technical Analysis**: For the HC2601 contract, the daily MACD indicator showed that the upward momentum was weakening, the RSI (14 - day) entered the neutral range, and the Bollinger Bands formed a current trading range of 3350 - 3400 yuan/ton [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - From September 15 - 19, the hot - rolled coil futures main contract showed a state of "range - bound trading and long - short game". The core contradiction was the imbalance between high supply and weak demand. In the short term, the hot - rolled coil futures may maintain range - bound trading, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking progress and marginal improvement signals in manufacturing demand [13]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Research Variety: Live Pigs [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - The lh2511 contract of live pigs showed a volatile and weak trend throughout the day on September 23, 2025, closing at 12,665 points, down 1.48% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 44,700 lots and an open interest of 93,500 lots [2] 2.2 Variety Price - All contracts of live pig futures generally declined, and the total open interest of the variety was 249,995 lots, an increase of 2,354 lots from the previous trading day [4] 2.3 Related Market - The total trading volume of live pig options was 16,057 lots, the total open interest was 54,341 lots, an increase of 1,481 lots, and the total number of exercised options was 0 [7] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Basis Data - Yesterday's live pig basis was 275 yuan/ton, and today's basis is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight expansion of the basis [8][9] 3.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts for live pigs decreased by 1 lot compared to the previous trading day [10][11] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry News - From September 8 - 14, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises was 14.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.0%. The average ex - factory price of白条肉 was 18.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7% [12] 4.2 Technical Analysis - The current short - term trend of the lh2511 contract of live pigs continues, with moving averages in a short - term arrangement and significant price pressure [13] Group 5: Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the live pig market has not been substantially alleviated, and the support of pre - holiday stocking for prices is less than expected, causing the price rebound to be blocked. In the futures market, the lh2511 contract is in a downward trend, dominated by short - term bears, with significant suppression from moving averages. In the short term, the price of the lh2511 contract may still show a volatile and weak trend [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Self-powdered sugar - Report Type: Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Falin [1] 2. Core View - The domestic spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse continues to be weak, and the main contract of the foreign ICE raw sugar futures shows a weak trend, providing limited support for the white sugar futures price. In the short term, the price of the main white sugar futures contract (SR601) may continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 23, 2025, the main contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures (SR601) fluctuated weakly throughout the day, closing at 5,444 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day. The trading volume was 222,211 lots, and the open interest was 474,011 lots, with an increase of 17,181 lots. The total long positions of the Top20 members in the main contract (SR601) were 290,664 lots, with a long position difference of 9,326 lots, while the total short positions were 367,312 lots, with a short position difference of 17,733 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Different contracts showed different price changes. SR511 rose 0.18%, SR601 fell 0.31%, SR603 fell 0.48%, and SR605 fell 0.57% [3]. - **Options Market**: The total trading volume of white sugar options was 94,954 lots, with 53,697 lots for call options and 41,257 lots for put options. The open interest was 294,905 lots, with 189,011 lots for call options and 105,894 lots for put options. The open interest PCR was 0.5603 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotes**: The spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouse was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 10,022, a decrease of 293 from the previous trading day [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **External Market Quotes**: On September 22, the main contract of ICE raw sugar opened at 16.15 cents/pound, reached a high of 16.29 cents/pound, a low of 15.84 cents/pound, and closed at 15.85 cents/pound, down 0.29 cents/pound or 1.80% from the previous day. The open interest was 454,796 lots, with an increase of 2,782 lots [12]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of white sugar was 456 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mudslide accident at the GBC mine in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has had a significant impact on the global copper supply, and the impact on the copper industry chain has just begun [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1) Event Review and Background Statement - On September 8, a mudslide occurred at the GBC mine of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, resulting in two deaths and five missing. The mine has been shut down since the accident [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is the world's third - largest copper mine, with a copper production of 816,500 metric tons in 2024, accounting for 3.55% of the global copper production of 23 million tons [1] - The Grasberg copper mine has three underground mining areas in operation. In 2024, the daily production of copper concentrate was 208,365 tons, with the GBC area accounting for 64% [1] - The Grasberg copper mine is an important asset of Freeport - McMoRan, an international mining company headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, USA [2] - Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary, PT Freeport Indonesia, holds 48.76% of the Grasberg underground mine, and the remaining equity is held by Indonesian state - owned enterprises [3] 2) Production Impact Analysis - After the accident on September 8, all mining operations in the Grasberg mining area stopped. The investigation is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - Freeport Indonesia's third - quarter sales were not significantly affected. After the accident, the estimated third - quarter copper sales decreased by about 4% compared to the July estimate, but copper concentrate inventory can temporarily make up for it [4] - The DMLZ and Big Gossan mines are expected to restart operations in mid - Q4 2025, while the phased restart and capacity increase of the GBC mine will begin in the first half of 2026 [5] - The company believes that copper sales in Q4 2025 will be negligible, at 44.5 million pounds (20,184 metric tons) [5] - The GBC mining area will restart and increase production in phases. It will not return to the pre - incident estimated level until 2027 [5] - In the scenario of phased restart and capacity increase, Freeport Indonesia estimates that copper production in 2026 will be 65% of 1.7 billion pounds, i.e., 501,220 tons, which is 61.3% of the 2024 production [6] 3) Market Outlook - Affected by the announcement of force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine, the copper prices on the LME and SHFE rose significantly last night. The impact of this accident on the global copper supply will be large and will not disappear quickly [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the manganese silicon futures showed a volatile upward trend. Fundamentally, the recovery of hot metal production drives demand, and the relatively stable cost of manganese ore provides support. However, the pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of funds suppresses the market volatility. Technically, the price is in a low - level volatile range, with balanced long and short forces. In the short term, it may continue to consolidate in the range of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton. In the long term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand pattern after the peak season and the risk of cost reduction [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5890 yuan/ton, with a high of 5948 yuan/ton, a low of 5868 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5916 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 169,412 lots, and the open interest was 333,773 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 529,129 lots, a decrease of 9,301 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,401 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract of manganese silicon was 27,387 contracts, and the open interest of put options was 22,849 contracts, with a PCR of 0.834 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 24, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 66 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 24, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 60,014, an increase of 517 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: In the Ningxia region, the overall start - up is stable, with only a few producers reducing production due to profit factors. The pre - holiday manganese ore stocking has basically ended. Some manufacturers have slightly higher inventory but still within the normal range, while most are in the order - delivery stage with low inventory. A ferrosilicon furnace in this region plans to switch to high - silicon product production this week. In the Inner Mongolia region, the manganese silicon production is running smoothly, and the started enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. In the spot market, the inventory remains low, and the current order schedule extends to mid - October. The manganese silicon production in the southern region is showing a recovery trend, with some factories restarting two ore - heating furnaces and planning to gradually increase production to full capacity [9][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 24, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a positive line. The 5 - day moving average and the 10 - day moving average were intertwined, indicating a balance between long and short forces without a clear trend. The intraday price failed to break through the resistance level of 5950 yuan/ton and closed at 5916 yuan/ton. The support level below can be focused on around 5800 yuan/ton. There are still differences in the market, and a breakthrough signal is needed to confirm the direction [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend. Recent geopolitical disturbances have provided support through geopolitical premiums, but the expected increase in Middle - East production has limited the upside potential of oil prices. Overall, despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil is supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,796 yuan/ton this week, up 79 yuan/ton or 2.91% from the previous trading week's settlement price. The highest price was 2,848 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,766 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,551,108 lots and an open interest of 221,820 lots, a decrease of 8,617 lots [3]. - **Variety Price**: The fuel oil futures contract prices showed an inverse market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The fuel oil spot market was weak this week. The current basis level was in the lower range of recent months, indicating greater price pressure in the spot market compared to the futures market. The current spot market supply is very loose, and sellers are willing to sell at prices lower than the futures price [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, 2025, the total fuel oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 127,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. All these warehouse receipts were in bonded warehouses [11]. 3.3 Influencing Factors The fuel oil benchmark price was 5,450 yuan/ton, up nearly 1.2% compared to the beginning of the month. The 380CST fuel oil benchmark price was 438 US dollars/ton, up 0.9% compared to the beginning of the month [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook Overall, the fuel oil market showed a fluctuating trend in the game between crude oil cost drivers and its own fundamentals. High basis and geopolitical premiums were the main features of the market. Despite the pressure on the international crude oil market, fuel oil was supported by geopolitical premiums and high spot premiums, with relatively limited decline. The significant decline in inventories in Singapore and Fujairah provided some support, but the expected increase in Middle - East production and weak global demand limited the upside potential. In the future, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, Fed monetary policies, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - During the week of September 15 - 19, 2025, the caustic soda futures price stopped falling and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.16%. Next week, as the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the operating rate is expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price rebounded this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH101) rose 81 yuan/ton to 2641 yuan/ton, a 3.16% increase. The highest price was 2657 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2548 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 114,000 lots, a decrease of 4,712 lots from last week. The trading volume increased by 316,000 lots to 1.852 million lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Except for the near - month SH510 contract, which declined, other caustic soda futures contracts generally rose this week, and the open interest of the main contract SH601 decreased [4]. - **Related Market**: The trading volume of caustic soda 01 contract options increased compared to last week, with call options performing stronger than put options. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2320 - 2680 point range [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped 70 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.05%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price rebounded while the spot price declined, and the basis turned negative, reaching - 141 yuan/ton as of Friday [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: As of September 18, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.9%, a 1.5% decrease from last week. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 378,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.02% increase from last week and an 18.22% increase year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 20.15%, a 0.75% increase from last week [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily price of the main caustic soda contract SH601 gradually increased, and the trading volume increased compared to last week [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the caustic soda futures price strengthened, and the open interest of the main contract decreased. The alumina operating rate remained at 84.0%. The non - aluminum demand showed that the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.52%, a 1.75% increase from last week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, the same as last week. Next week, as the previously maintained devices resume operation, the supply is expected to increase. Considering the high inventory and sufficient supply in Shandong before the National Day holiday, the spot price may continue to be weak. Future market trends need to focus on the purchasing volume of the main downstream and device fluctuations [14].

成文日期：20250919 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250919）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下行，收盘价为 1661 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1656 元/吨,成交量 11.3 万 手，较上日减少 0.1 万手，持仓量 29.7 万手，较上日增加 1 万手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 表 1： 尿素期货当日行情表 20250919 | 合约名称 最新 涨幅 | | --- | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2511 | | 尿素2601ª 1661 -10 -0.60% 297254 10431 112725 1672 1676 1656 | 图片来源:国金期货 wh6 2 现货市场 2.1 ...