Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current weak demand situation for soda ash has not improved. The "anti - involution" production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may lead to a decrease in the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term improvement in shipments is mainly due to downstream passive replenishment at low prices rather than demand recovery [7]. - Future price trends depend on multiple factors. A drop in industry operating rate below 80% or a delay in the commissioning of Yuanxing Energy may trigger a periodic rebound. The effectiveness of domestic real - estate policies in promoting inventory reduction of float glass will improve the demand outlook for heavy soda ash. The implementation of macro - level stimulus policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may also change market sentiment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 17, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated and closed lower. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1240 yuan/ton, the highest was 1240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1196 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1.045 million lots, a decrease of 104,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.406 million lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The prices of different soda ash futures contracts all declined on October 17, 2025. For example, the soda ash 2609 contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton or 1.59%, the soda ash 2601 M contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton or 1.47%, and the soda ash 2605 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton or 1.75%. The domestic soda ash spot market prices remained unchanged on this day [4][5]. 3. Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - related**: The overall demand for glass in the peak season is weak. Despite the improvement in profits, the industry's operating rate has increased, and enterprise inventories have continuously increased, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment and consecutive drops in the glass futures market [6]. - **Fundamentals - related**: Coal prices are stable at 850 yuan/ton, but the price of raw salt has decreased to 280 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process has dropped to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process is - 82 yuan/ton. The industry's loss - making ratio has expanded to 65% [6]. 4. Market Outlook - The weak demand for soda ash persists. The production cut plan of photovoltaic glass may reduce the demand for heavy soda ash in November. Short - term shipment improvement is due to downstream passive replenishment. Attention should be paid to factors such as industry operating rate, the commissioning progress of Yuanxing Energy, real - estate policies, and macro - level stimulus policies [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel futures market showed an oscillating trend. The market is in a weak - balance state with insufficient demand in the peak season, supply - side profit constraints, and inventory reduction providing support. Short - term stainless - steel futures may continue to oscillate within a range, and policy expectations and the "Silver October" performance of the demand side will be the key variables to break the range [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 16, 2025, the stainless - steel ss2512 contract oscillated. The opening price dropped to the lowest point of 12,500 and then rebounded to the highest point of 12,615. The trading volume was large at the opening and when the price reached the highest point. The position increased continuously, with a trading volume of 125,870 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 stainless - steel futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. Most contract prices declined slightly, with far - term contracts having a relatively larger decline. The total position of the variety was 289,810 lots, an increase of 5,297 lots from the previous trading day. The position of the active contract ss2512 increased by 7,755 lots, while that of the sub - main contract ss2511 decreased by 2,869 lots [2][4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2512 changed significantly, with a maximum of 950 yuan/ton and a minimum of 163 yuan/ton, and 423 yuan/ton on the day. Spot prices of 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coil plate varied in different regions, such as 12,700 yuan/ton in Foshan Yongjin, 12,900 yuan/ton in Wuxi Yongjin, etc. [5]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: In the past 10 trading days, registered warehouse receipts decreased overall, from a maximum of 87,803 tons to a minimum of 83,231 tons. On the day, it was 83,231 tons, a decrease of 776 tons from the previous day [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: The demand in the downstream consumption peak season is not optimistic. The total inventory in the Wuxi and Foshan stainless - steel markets increased to 909,000 tons in October, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, indicating that demand is lower than expected [7]. - **Supply**: Overseas goods are arriving at ports, and domestic stainless - steel production in October has increased, intensifying the cautious wait - and - see sentiment of enterprises. - **Cost**: The supply disturbance of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened. The procurement of nickel ore for new HPAL projects in 2026 has started, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory has accumulated to about 43,600 tons in October, indicating sufficient supply for smelters [8]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas, and the improvement of downstream consumption needs to be continuously tracked [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook The stainless - steel futures market may continue to oscillate in the short term. Policy expectations and the performance of the "Silver October" demand side are the key factors to break the range. The risk of a callback due to intensified industrial negative feedback should be watched out for [9].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 15, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Stock Index Futures - Research Analyst: Wu Yinqiu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, stock index futures are likely to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. Although there are issues such as insufficient domestic effective demand and external tariff disturbances, strong policy - stability expectations and the inflow of funds into the stock market will support the medium - and long - term upward trend of the stock index [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: On October 15, 2025, the most active contract of CSI 300 stock index futures, IF2512, opened higher and closed higher, rising 1.54% throughout the day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The CSI 300 stock index futures opened 14.8 points higher today. The main contract IF2512 had the largest trading volume of 86,223 lots, with a trading amount of 117.387 billion yuan, and the position volume was 160,428 lots, a decrease of 2,013 lots from the previous trading day [4][5]. - **Associated Market**: The three major A - share indexes regained their upward momentum today. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the 3,900 - point mark, rising 1.22%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2,072.9 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 503.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The U.S. dollar index closed down 0.21% at 99.056. The three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed trends [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The latest quote of the CSI 300 index spot was 4,606.29 points, up 67.23 points or 1.48% from the previous day. The daily basis difference with the futures main contract IF2512 was 29.89 points, with little change from the previous trading day. The spot index and the futures price showed a high degree of synchronization [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro Information**: Domestically, in September 2025, the national consumer price index CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. On October 15, the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was reported at 7.0995, up 26 basis points from the previous trading day. Overseas, on the early morning of October 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at the possibility of an interest - rate cut this month and a potential halt to the balance - sheet reduction. Regarding tariffs, Sino - U.S. game intensified as China took counter - measures against 5 U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., and Trump threatened to terminate trade in vegetable oils and other commodities [10][11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 stock index futures opened higher and then fluctuated upward. On the daily - line level, it was still in a high - level wide - range oscillation phase, with the daily K - line under pressure near the upper track of the BOLL. The daily line was above the 20 - day moving average but was restricted by the 5 - day moving average. The upward channel converged, and short - term high - level oscillation risks should be noted [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Overnight U.S. stocks oscillated due to the increasing expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut and Sino - U.S. game news. With the approaching of the APEC meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session in October, the short - term operation difficulty increased. In the short term, the stock index is likely to oscillate widely, but in the medium and long term, it is expected to rise due to policy support and capital inflow [15].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 17, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Research Variety: Manganese Silicon - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 16, the manganese silicon futures market showed an overall volatile pattern. In the short term, the manganese silicon futures will maintain a weak volatile pattern, mainly restricted by supply - demand contradictions and market sentiment. Weak steel mill demand and rising inventory pressure have led to a lack of upward momentum in the market. The decline in trading volume indicates insufficient market participation, and it is difficult to form a trending market in the short term. Attention can be paid to the results of steel tenders and the actual procurement situation of steel mills to judge whether the short - term price will rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 16, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. The daily session opened at 5,734 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 5,786 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 5,720 yuan/ton, a closing price of 5,754 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 5,758 yuan/ton. The closing price decreased by 12 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The full - day trading volume was 129,115 lots, and the open interest was 374,285 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The prices of the 12 futures contracts showed a contango market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. The prices of each contract fluctuated differently throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 574,082 lots, a decrease of 978 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 increased by 1,983 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Related Market - On October 16, the overall volatility of the manganese silicon options market was relatively large. The open interest of the call options of the manganese silicon main contract was 34,191 contracts, the open interest of the put options was 30,235 contracts, and the open interest PCR was 0.884 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - On October 16, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 54 yuan/ton, which was wider than that of the previous day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - On October 16, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 48,976, a decrease of 780 compared with the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Mysteel surveyed 83 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 71.6% of the national surveyed production capacity): The average inventory of manganese ore in factories nationwide was 14.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 days. Among them, the average in Guangxi was 7.3 days (an increase of 0.3), in Guizhou was 11.3 days (an increase of 0.6), in Inner Mongolia was 19 days (a decrease of 0.3), in Ningxia was 15.3 days (a decrease of 0.3), in Shanxi was 9.7 days (an increase of 0.4), in Shaanxi was 8.7 days (unchanged), in Sichuan and Chongqing was 24.3 days (an increase of 0.5), and in Yunnan was 21.7 days (an increase of 1) [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - On October 16, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon showed a volatile upward trend and finally closed with a small positive line. Technically, the manganese silicon price formed a short - term support around 5,700 yuan/ton, but the upward pressure was obvious. In particular, the level of 5,800 yuan/ton was not effectively broken through, limiting the upward momentum [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on apples, dated October 3, 2025, with the research period being September 2025 [1] Group 2: Core View - In September 2025, the apple futures market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the new - season late Fuji's opening price is expected to rise, but there are also supply and demand factors affecting the market [1][2][3] Group 3: Futures Market 3.1 Contract Price Analysis - The main apple futures contract ap2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with a slightly upward - moving monthly operation center. The influencing factors of the apple market in September were relatively stable, including spot price fluctuations, weather changes in production areas, and the relative impact of other fruits [3] 3.2 Variety Market Analysis - The total open interest of apple futures was 111,461 lots, the trading volume was 1,883,035 lots, and the turnover was 156.5155 billion yuan. The report also provided detailed monthly market data for each apple futures contract [4][5] Group 4: Spot Market 4.1 Basis Data - The apple futures basis in September was generally negative, meaning the spot price was lower than the futures price [7] 4.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 0 [8] Group 5: Influencing Factors 5.1 Influencing Factor Analysis - Substitute fruits such as grapes and pomegranates had a partial impact on the apple market. The old - stock Fuji apples were not fully cleared, and the remaining inventory moved slowly. Market demand varied, with some merchants stocking up as needed before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival. The cost of high - quality new apples remained high, and the export volume of new - season apples increased in August [8][9][10] 5.2 Technical Analysis - In September, the technical side of apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Short - term moving averages supported the price, and the price fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The moving averages formed a long - position arrangement, with the long - position power on the disk slightly dominant [11] Group 6: Market Outlook - On the supply side, the western apple - producing areas were affected by adverse weather during the flowering period, resulting in smaller single - fruit sizes and potentially lower high - quality fruit rates. The remaining cold - storage apples in the country were at a five - year low. New - season apples in the west had uneven fruit sizes, and the impact of post - bag - removal weather on coloring and appearance needed attention. On the demand side, the market was boosted to a limited extent by the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals. After the festivals, the apple market was still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits, and the market arrival volume was low. Technically, although the apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with the approaching large - scale listing of new - season apples, the ap2601 contract price may face upward pressure and is expected to show a high - level volatile trend [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the apple futures market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the monthly operating center of the main contract ap2601 shifting slightly upward. The factors influencing the apple market in September, including spot price fluctuations, weather changes in production areas, and the relative impact of other fruits, changed smoothly without unexpected changes, resulting in a relatively stable impact on prices. The market is optimistic about the high opening price of new - season late Fuji apples [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The main apple futures contract ap2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with its monthly operating center moving slightly upward. The three factors affecting the apple market in September changed smoothly and had a relatively gentle impact on prices [3]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - The total open interest of apple futures was 111,461 lots, the trading volume was 1,883,035 lots, and the turnover was 156.5155 billion yuan. The specific contract data is shown in the apple futures monthly market table [4][5]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - In September, the apple futures basis was negative overall, meaning the spot price was lower than the futures price [7]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 0 [8]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Influencing Factor Analysis - Substitutes such as grapes and pomegranates had a partial impact. The old - stock Fuji apples in inventory were not fully cleared, and the remaining goods did not move quickly. The market sales were uneven. Some merchants stocked up as needed approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival. The cost of high - quality new fruits remained high. The export volume increased in August with the new - season fruits hitting the market. The prices of mid - and late - maturing varieties in the production areas were relatively stable, and the market was optimistic about the high opening price of new - season late Fuji [8][9][10]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - In September, the technical aspect of apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The short - term moving averages provided some support for the price, and the price fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The moving averages formed a long - position combination, and the long - position power on the disk was slightly dominant [11]. 4. Market Outlook - On the supply side, the flowering period in the western production areas was affected by adverse weather, resulting in small single fruits, and the high - temperature and drought conditions hindered fruit coloring, with a预计 low excellent - fruit rate. The remaining amount of apples in cold storage nationwide is at the lowest level in the past five years. The new - season apples in the western region are generally uneven in size, and the subsequent weather after bag removal needs attention. On the demand side, the market was slightly boosted by the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, but the overall effect was limited. The market is still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits, and the arrival volume of vehicles remains low. In the short term, as the new - season apples are about to be launched in large quantities, the price of the ap2601 contract on the disk may face upward pressure and will likely show a high - level volatile trend [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the fuel oil futures showed a downward trend after breaking through support levels, with overall trading sentiment being bearish. Affected by the significant decline in the international crude oil market and the weakening of the fundamental supply - demand structure, the price center of fuel oil futures has clearly shifted downward. The main trading logic this week revolved around increased global supply, slowing demand growth, and weakened cost support. Meanwhile, macro - risk events such as the "shutdown" of the US federal government further intensified market concerns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market:** The main fuel oil contract FU2601 closed at 2,781 yuan/ton this week, down 86 yuan/ton or 3% from the settlement price of the previous trading week. The highest price this week was 2,835 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2,776 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 775,015 lots, and the open interest was 230,600 lots, a decrease of 4,649 lots [3] - **Variety Price:** The fuel oil futures contract prices presented a backwardation market pattern with near - term prices higher than long - term prices [7] 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data:** The fuel oil spot market performed poorly this week. The current basis level is in the lower range of recent months, indicating that the spot market faces greater price pressure compared to the futures market. The low basis level reflects that the spot market is more resistant to declines than the futures market and also shows the futures market's pessimistic expectation of the long - term fundamentals [9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts:** This week, the changes in the fuel oil warehouse receipt data on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were limited, remaining generally stable. The low level of warehouse receipts helps reduce the physical delivery pressure on the futures market and provides some support for the prices of near - month contracts [11][12] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information:** The benchmark price of fuel oil is 5,363 yuan/ton, down nearly 2.1% compared to the beginning of this month. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST is 433 US dollars/ton, down 3.8% compared to the beginning of this month [13] 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the fuel oil market is expected to be mainly driven by geopolitical factors and crude oil costs. In terms of international supply, OPEC+ plans to expand the production increase scale in November, and the resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, combined with the increased inflow of goods after the end of the summer electricity peak in the Middle East, clearly indicate an abundant supply pattern in the Asian fuel oil market. In the future, close attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff policies, the Fed's monetary policy (interest rate cut expectations), geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations that may affect the fuel oil market [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the week of 20250929 - 0930, the caustic soda futures price showed a narrow - range consolidation with a weekly increase of 0.12%, and the spot price remained stable. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - stocking situation of downstream alumina plants and the enterprise inventory data after the National Day [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range oscillation this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH601) rose 3 yuan/ton to 2531 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase, with a high of 2536 yuan/ton, a low of 2486 yuan/ton. The position was 83,862 lots, a decrease of 24,858 lots from last week, and the trading volume decreased by 1.112 million lots to 504,382 lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Most caustic soda prices declined this week, the near - month contracts performed slightly stronger, and the position of the main contract SH601 continued to decrease [2]. - **Associated Market**: The trading volume of call options for the caustic soda 01 contract was less than that of put options this week. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2240 - 2640 point range [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, and the liquid caustic soda price in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range adjustment, the spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly. On one hand, the futures price oscillated and sorted out; on the other hand, the spot price remained stable with minor adjustments in some regions [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was stable with a weak trend. Before the holiday, the supply - demand fluctuations were relatively limited, and the purchase price of the main downstream was adjusted to 740 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily line of the main caustic soda contract SH601 had a narrow - range adjustment, the trading volume decreased significantly compared with last week, and it was currently in a downward channel [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook This week, the caustic soda futures price oscillated and sorted out, and the price strengthened on the last trading day before the holiday. The position of the main contract decreased, and the overall position remained below 100,000 lots. In terms of demand, the receiving volume of the main downstream liquid caustic soda decreased, and the overall demand was average. Enterprises also loosened their prices to destock, and the prices in some regions were under downward pressure. The profit of the main downstream alumina shrank, and the non - aluminum demand was also lower than expected, presenting a weak reality pattern. Future attention should be paid to whether the inventory - stocking demand before the commissioning of new alumina production capacity can be realized and the impact of the overall enterprise inventory change after the National Day [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alumina market is currently in a multi - empty game situation of "increasing supply, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". Supply increases both domestically and internationally, and inventory accumulates, which is the core factor suppressing prices. However, the support near the cost line is gradually emerging, reducing the risk of excessive price decline. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillatory trend within a range [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Spot Market - Basis Data The basis of the active alumina ao2601 contract has weakened recently. The spot price of alumina in Shandong is 2880 yuan/ton, the futures contract has dropped 19 yuan/ton from the previous closing price, and the basis on that day is 24 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1 Industry Information On October 10, the domestic spot market showed a stable trend. The price of domestic active powder alumina in Henan was 5750 yuan/ton and remained unchanged since October 3. The futures market was relatively weak, and the linkage between spot and futures prices weakened due to light short - term spot trading and traders' wait - and - see attitude. The weighted full cost of alumina in the Jin and Yu regions is about 3025 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, limiting the downward space of spot prices, but there is no momentum for spot price rebound under the oversupply situation [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The main alumina contract shows a clear oscillatory and bearish trend. On the daily line level, the contract price has been running below the 5 - day moving average since falling from the previous high. On October 10, it rebounded to 2913 yuan/ton and then fell back, confirming the suppression of the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with the previous day, and the price decline accompanied by increased volume indicates that short - selling power is still being released [8]. 4. Market Outlook The alumina market is in a situation of "supply increase, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". The supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress prices, while the cost line provides support. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly within a range [10].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In September 2025, the price of Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend. The average spot price dropped from 22,060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,770 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The core driving factors were the continuous realization of the logic of loose domestic supply, the increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, which led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - In September, Shanghai Zinc futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The monthly closing price of the main contract (ZN2510.SHF) dropped from 22,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.8%, and the settlement price also decreased by 1.7%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: narrow - range consolidation supported by macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month, a decline after the realization of the logic of loose supply and demand in the middle of the month, and a slight stabilization at the end of the month supported by pre - holiday restocking and low LME inventory. The core driving factors were the domestic supply surplus (increase in zinc ore imports and high smelting output), the under - performance of the peak demand season, and the pressure on social inventory accumulation, which led to the downward shift of the price center. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and low overseas inventory only provided periodic support [3] 1.2 Variety Market - Among the 13 contracts of Shanghai Zinc futures, the prices of each contract varied in September. The Shanghai Zinc 2509 contract rose, while the rest of the contracts declined, with fluctuations ranging from - 1000 points to 100 points. The position volume was 240,189 lots, an increase of 16,498 lots. The trading volume was about 4.418 million lots, an increase of about 810,000 lots compared with the previous month. Overall, the market trading was relatively active [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Price - In September, the spot price of Shanghai Zinc showed a trend of "stable at first, then weak, and a slight recovery at the end of the month". At the beginning of the month, boosted by the macro - interest rate cut expectation, the price oscillated in the range of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, as the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and the weakness of the peak demand season were realized, the price gradually dropped to around 21,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the pre - holiday restocking of some downstream enterprises drove a slight rebound in the spot price, but it failed to reverse the monthly downward trend [8] 2.2 Basis Data - According to Wind statistics, the basis of Shanghai Zinc was mostly negative in September, with the spot at a discount to the futures. At the end of the month, the basis narrowed to + 5 yuan/ton (September 30), mainly driven by pre - holiday restocking. However, the average basis rate for the whole month was - 0.35%, indicating that the pattern of oversupply in the spot market remained unchanged [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - Supply side: The looseness of zinc ore was transmitted to refined zinc, and the output remained at a high level. The import of zinc ore increased significantly. From January to August, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrates increased by 43.06% year - on - year, and the import processing fee (TC) rebounded to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton. The looseness at the ore end supported the production at the smelting end. The output of refined zinc increased significantly. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic refined zinc increased by more than 9% year - on - year, and the scheduled production in September was close to 610,000 tons, with continuous release of supply pressure. Smelters were actively operating. The processing fee was at a two - year high, and with the supplement of by - product profits, smelters had strong production enthusiasm, and only some enterprises slightly reduced production due to maintenance [10] - Demand side: The "Golden September" peak season was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The recovery of the operating rate of the processing industry was limited. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month, but were all lower than the same period last year, and the PMI was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprises' procurement sentiment was cautious. Terminal demand was weak. Infrastructure growth was limited, real estate sales were sluggish, automobile sales declined year - on - year, and the export of galvanized sheets was restricted. The consumption boost in the peak season was less than expected. The pre - holiday restocking effect was short - lived. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises stocked up for the National Day, and the spot trading improved slightly, but it failed to reverse the overall weak situation [11][12] 4. Market Outlook - The increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [13]