成文日期：20260122 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈? 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价 8,944 元/吨,较前一交易日 上涨 1.59%；开盘价 8,850 元/吨,最高价 8,964元/吨,最低价 8,850 元/吨，成交量 502,993 手，持仓量 467,244 手，成交额 448.37 亿元。 数据来源：wh6，国金期货 1: 棕榈油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 前。 出口数据显著改善：1 月 1 日至 20 日，马来西亚棕榈油出口量 环比增长 8.64%–11.4%,出口回升反映印度、中国等主要进口国节 前备货需求增强、库存去化预期提升。 国内库存高位但边际缓和：截至 2026 年 1 月 21 日，全国棕榈 油商业库存为 77.60 万吨，较前一周微增 0.6 万吨，同比仍高出 31 万吨,但库存增速放缓,叠加进口成本倒挂收窄 ...

1 期货市场 当日，尿素主力合约窄幅震荡，收盘 1776 元/吨，微涨 0.23%，期现结构维持期货升水但基差小幅收敛，库存持续去化与 需求回暖提供支撑、短期或延续震荡整理。 图 1: 尿素 ur2605 分时图 成文日期：20260122 报告周期:日报 研究品种:尿素 研究分析师：武吟秋（从业资格号：F03087154;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018989) r | 数据来源： Wind 数据来源: Wind 2 影响因素 行业开工率 86.39%维持高位. 日产 20.51 万吨,供应充足;但 企业库存连续两周去化，94.60 万吨库存较上周减少 4.01 万吨，内 蒙古等区域受东北需求拉动出货加快。 复合肥开工率回升至 42.96%，三聚氰胺开工率 62.18%，工业 需求回暖；农业端冬腊肥与返青肥采购启动，淡储持续，支撑刚 龍。 山东、河南现货价格 1710-1740 元/吨，低于期货收盘价，部分 企业降价吸单后成交好转，但物流受雨雪天气影响局部受阻。 图 2：尿素 UR2605 日线 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:400682 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The SHFE fuel oil is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term trend. After the technical breakthrough, the upward space is opened, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2600 yuan/ton integer mark. The trend of crude oil prices remains a key influencing factor, and if it can stay above $65 per barrel, it will further boost the confidence of the fuel oil market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the opening price of the SHFE fuel oil main contract (FU.SHF) was 2496 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2599 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2492 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2586 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 6.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume on that day significantly increased to 1098156 lots, and the open interest was 244122 lots. The price showed a strong upward trend, and the closing price was close to the daily high, indicating that the bulls had an obvious advantage [2]. 3.2现货市场 - On January 14, 2026, the market price of fuel oil (domestic blended 180CST) in South China was 5008 yuan/ton, the market price of fuel oil (domestic 250) in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, and the market price of fuel oil (residual oil) in Northeast China was 3600 yuan/ton, with no obvious change from the previous day. The closing price of the fuel oil main contract on that day was 2586 yuan/ton, and the futures price was at a significant discount to the spot price, with a positive basis, reflecting a market structure where the current fuel oil spot market supply is tight and the futures market has a relatively loose expectation of future supply [4][5]. 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: On the supply side, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. On the demand side, there was a certain amount of inventory - building operations in the middle and lower reaches, and refinery inventories were running at a low level, supporting price increases. In addition, the ongoing tense situation in Iran and market concerns about possible reductions in crude oil exports further boosted the market's bullish sentiment [6]. - **技术分析**: The technical pattern in the past five trading days showed that the SHFE fuel oil price was in an oscillating upward trend. From January 8 to January 13, the price fluctuated in the range of 2418 - 2533 yuan/ton. On January 14, there was a breakthrough increase, with a single - day increase of 6.07%, forming a large positive line pattern, and the trading volume increased simultaneously, indicating strong upward momentum. The price successfully broke through the previous high, and the technical side showed obvious strong characteristics, confirming a short - term upward trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Methanol [doc id='1'] - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Date: 20260114 2. Key Points from the Report a. Futures Market - Methanol futures latest price is 2,288 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.15%. The current basis is at a historically low level. The basis has significantly narrowed in the last 5 trading days due to the relatively stronger futures price. The current basis is lower than the one - year average, indicating that the futures market has a slightly better supply - demand expectation for the future than the spot market, with limited arbitrage space and weak delivery intention [doc id='2'] b. Influencing Factors - **Supply Side** - Domestic methanol capacity utilization remains high, but some plants are under maintenance due to profit losses, resulting in a slight increase in production. Internationally, the situation in Iran is disturbing export expectations, potentially leading to a marginal contraction in global supply. Potential supply - disturbing factors include the geopolitical conflict in Iran (high impact) and domestic environmental protection restrictions (medium impact) [doc id='4'] - Recent import volume has increased due to the arrival of previously low - priced international goods, but future Iranian export expectations are decreasing, which may lead to a reduction in imports. Influencing factors include the Iranian geopolitical situation (high impact) and exchange - rate fluctuations (medium impact). China has a high import dependence, and international supply changes significantly affect domestic prices [doc id='5'] - **Demand Side** - The operating rate of downstream MTO plants remains low, mainly due to limited profits (narrowing ethylene - methanol spread), and weak demand restricts price increases. Other downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have stable demand without significant growth. The marginal change in consumption is neutral to weak [doc id='4'] - **Inventory** - Port inventories are continuously increasing and are at a historically high level, mainly due to increased imports and weak demand. Production enterprises tend to reduce inventories, but traders have insufficient willingness to replenish stocks. High inventories suppress prices, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased, indicating a loose supply - demand pattern [doc id='5'] c. Market Outlook - In the short term, there is a game between the geopolitical disturbance in Iran on the supply side and high domestic inventories, and a game between weak demand and cost support on the demand side. Market hot - discussion topics include changes in Iranian exports, expectations of a rebound in MTO operating rates, and the rhythm of inventory reduction [doc id='7']

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on manganese - silicon futures, dated January 14, 2026, and the research analyst is An Zhiyuan [1] Group 2: Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the main manganese - silicon futures contract SM2605 opened at 5,900 yuan/ton, fluctuated weakly throughout the day, with a maximum of 5,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 5,870 yuan/ton, and closed at 5,920 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,373 lots, and the trading volume was 4.233 billion yuan, with stable capital participation [2] Group 3: Spot Market - On January 14, the market price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 9, the national average price index of silicon - manganese was 5,726 yuan/ton, 5,694 yuan/ton in the northern region, and 5,778 yuan/ton in the southern region, all up from the previous week. Some spot - futures enterprises' quotes remained stable, with Ningxia's quotes in the range of 05 + 350 to 05 + 390 and Inner Mongolia's in the range of 05 + 250 to 05 + 280. The market trading atmosphere was average, and spot transactions were mainly based on on - demand procurement [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors Industry News - On January 14, Mysteel reported that HBIS Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in January was 5,850 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the December price, and the procurement volume was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from December. In December, the national silicon - manganese output was 843,500 tons, a 0.62% month - on - month decrease and a 4.02% year - on - year decrease. As of January 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 382,500 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory reduction [7] Technical Analysis - The closing price of the main contract SM2605 was 5,920 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages were flat, showing a short - term bearish trend. The trading volume increased moderately, indicating a slight increase in short - selling funds. The green column of the MACD indicator widened slightly, and short - selling momentum was released. The middle track of the Bollinger Band around 5,910 yuan/ton formed short - term support, and if broken, it may further decline to the 5,870 - 5,890 yuan/ton range [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The core contradiction in the current manganese - silicon market is the game between "cost support and loose supply - demand". Rising manganese ore prices and steel mills' restocking needs support the price, but high inventory pressure and the off - season characteristics of terminal demand limit the upside. It is expected that the main contract will fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the final pricing of mainstream steel mills such as HBIS, changes in manganese ore import policies, and the rhythm of inventory reduction [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the natural rubber market will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend in the short term. The market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced supply pressure due to the domestic suspension of the rubber - tapping season and signs of macro - economic improvement, while bearish factors involve concerns about the actual improvement in demand and the increasing supply from Southeast Asian regions. Key factors to watch include weather in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas, domestic tire enterprise operating rates and inventory changes, automobile production and sales data, macro - economic policies, and inventory levels and import volume changes in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Daily Market Trend The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened, then declined horizontally, followed by sideways consolidation and an upward movement. It reached the daily high and then gradually fell, closing at the second - lowest point of the day. The opening price was 16,110 yuan/ton, the highest price was 16,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 15,975 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 380,256 lots, and the open interest was 194,674 lots [1]. b. Price and Open Interest Changes The closing price remained the same as the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased by 5,832 lots compared to the previous day [1]. c. Spot Market Situation On January 13, 2026, the market price (tax - included) of Vietnamese 3L natural rubber in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton. The basis between the current futures closing price of 15,975 yuan/ton and the spot price was 125 yuan/ton, with the futures price slightly lower than the spot price [1]. d. Main Influencing Factors - **Demand Side**: The downstream market had weak buying interest, and overall market transactions were sluggish. Although traders' inventory - holding costs supported prices, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in a mediocre trading atmosphere [1]. - **Supply Side**: The natural rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China had entered the off - season, significantly reducing the supply pressure of domestic standard rubber. However, Southeast Asia was still in the peak rubber - tapping season [2]. - **Macro - economic Aspect**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2]. e. Short - term Outlook The short - term natural rubber market is expected to remain range - bound. On the supply side, the domestic off - season has eased supply pressure, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient due to the peak season in Southeast Asian main producing areas. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream tire enterprises are average, and there is still inventory pressure on both all - steel and semi - steel tires, which restricts the enterprises' intention to replenish inventory [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current iron ore market is in a triple - game situation of "supply contraction, demand recovery, and high inventory". The reduction in Australian and Brazilian shipments on the supply side provides support, the increase in hot metal production on the demand side strengthens the restocking expectation, while the inventory accumulation pattern at ports and steel mills restricts the upward space. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures main contract I2605 will maintain range - bound oscillations. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking progress, port inventory accumulation speed, and global shipment data changes [8] 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The I2605 contract opened at 822 yuan/ton, with the highest intraday price reaching 828 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 814 yuan/ton, closing at 819.5 yuan/ton, with an all - day amplitude of 14 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,621 lots, and the trading value was 25.581 billion yuan. The capital participation decreased compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 653,300 lots, a decrease of 1,527 lots from the previous trading day, indicating that short - term capital divergence weakened and market wait - and - see sentiment increased [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 13, the domestic iron ore spot market prices were stable with some increases, and different varieties showed differentiation. The mainstream delivery products' prices all rose compared with the previous day. The basis between the main contract closing price of 819.5 yuan/ton and the PB powder spot price of 825 yuan/wet ton was 5.5 yuan/ton, which narrowed compared with the previous day, and the futures - spot linkage increased [5] 3.3影响因素 - Supply side: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the global supply tightened marginally. From January 5th to January 11th, Australian shipments were 1,931.6 million tons (a decrease of 8 million tons month - on - month), Brazilian shipments were 674.8 million tons (a decrease of 128.3 million tons month - on - month), and the combined shipments of Australia and Brazil decreased by 136.3 million tons month - on - month. Meanwhile, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,255.2 million tons (an increase of 96.9 million tons month - on - month). Demand side: The resumption of production of steel mills accelerated, and the hot metal output continued to rise. The daily hot metal output increased by 2.07 million tons to 2.295 billion tons, reaching a recent high, and the steel mills' rigid demand for iron ore strengthened. On the daily - line level, the I2605 contract closed with a small doji candlestick, and the short - term support and pressure intervals were clear. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, and the open interest decreased slightly, showing that the market trading sentiment became more cautious. The MACD indicators DIFF and DEA were glued near the zero - axis, and the green bars shrank slightly, with neutral momentum and no clear unilateral trend signal [6] 3.4行情展望 - The iron ore market is in a triple - game situation. The cost support logic of iron ore is indirectly boosted by the 50 - yuan/ton increase in the scrap steel purchase price of Shagang. However, in the off - season, the terminal demand has not significantly increased, and the release rhythm of pre - holiday restocking demand is uncertain. It is expected that the short - term main contract I2605 of iron ore futures will maintain range - bound oscillations [8]

1.1 合约行情 2026 年 1 月 13 日，DCE 豆粕主力合约(M.DCE)开盘价 2799 元/吨，收盘价 2761 元/吨,较前一交易日下跌 0.9%。最高价 2805 元/吨，最低价 2756 元/吨，当日成交量 1180639 手，持仓量 2258105手。 图 1：豆粕主力合约分时图 20260113 数据来源：同花顺期货通 2 现货市场 2026 年 1 月 13 日,天津豆粕现货价格为 3200 元/吨,期货主 力合约收盘价 2761 元/吨,基差为 439 元/吨,现货价格显著高于期 货价格，市场呈现现货强、期货弱的格局。 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期：20260113 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:豆粕 研究员：陈博（从业资格号：F03138462; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022938) 壹粕期货日报 1 期货市场 近 5 个交易日,豆粕主力合约呈现震荡下行趋势。1 月 7 日至 1 月 13 日期间,价格在 2756-2827 元/吨区间波动,整体呈 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for the caustic soda market is bearish. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. An approach of selling on rallies is recommended. Without a substantial improvement in the supply - demand contradiction, caustic soda prices are unlikely to have a trending upward movement and will mainly show a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Today's Market Review - The main contract of caustic soda futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed a volatile downward trend. It opened at 2164 yuan/ton, reached a high of 2169 yuan/ton, a low of 2123 yuan/ton, and closed at 2131 yuan/ton, down 2.74% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 485,679 lots, and the open interest was 208,787 lots, an increase of 9,209 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of the variety reached 325,746 lots, continuing the recent upward trend [2]. Spot Market Situation - On January 13, 2026, the market price (mid - price) of 30% diaphragm caustic soda in North China was 720 yuan/ton. According to Business Society data, the benchmark price of caustic soda on that day was 726.00 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the beginning of the month (738.00 yuan/ton), in the low - price range of the year. There is a significant basis between the caustic soda futures price and the spot price, and the market shows a contango pattern [2]. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The current caustic soda market has a pattern of "excess supply + weak demand". The supply side maintains high - level production with sufficient supply. On the demand side, non - aluminum industries mainly make low - price and rigid purchases, with low willingness to buy at high prices. The demand in the main alumina production areas has not changed much, and there is no new demand [2]. - **Macroeconomic environment**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but it has not significantly boosted the downstream demand for caustic soda [3]. - **Related product market**: In the chlor - alkali industry chain, the PVC market was relatively strong today but failed to drive up the caustic soda price, suggesting that the supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda itself is the dominant factor [3]. Short - term Outlook - The caustic soda market fundamentals remain bearish in the short term. The supply side maintains high - level production, and there are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. Key factors to watch include basis changes, inventory inflection points, downstream demand changes, and the impact of macro - economic policies on manufacturing demand [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Soybean oil [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [1][2][5][6] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The current market features "tight supply and cautious demand". Spot prices are supported by tight circulation of grass - root grain sources. Although the auction of imported soybeans increases long - term supply, the short - term impact is limited. With the oil mills' operating rate at a medium level and slow downstream demand, the short - term soybean oil price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile pattern [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - On January 13, 2026, the opening price of the DCE soybean oil main contract (Y.DCE) was 8008 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7986 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 7976 yuan/ton. It rose 0.18% on the day, with a trading volume of 27,977 lots, a trading value of 22.411 billion yuan, and an open interest of 709,684 lots [2] 4.2 Spot Market - On January 13, the spot price of Wuhan Grade 4 soybean oil was 8610 yuan/ton, and that of Huangpu Grade 4 soybean oil was 8550 yuan/ton. The basis of all soybean oil contracts was positive [5] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information** - Domestic soybean market: The circulation of grass - root grain sources is tight, and grain - holding entities are determined to hold up prices. The price of high - quality high - protein sources is firm, showing a "strong - price and weak - volume" situation. The mainstream reference price in the domestic soybean spot market today is 4355 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day [6] - Pressing situation: Today, the operating rate of oil mills is about 53.71%. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 1.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years [6] - Imported soybean cost: On January 13, the arrival cost of imported soybeans was 3848.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43.58 yuan/ton or 1.12% from the previous working day. Among them, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4106.11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.05 yuan/ton; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3463.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.39 yuan/ton [6] - US soybean exports: As of the week ending January 8, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons, a 55% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase year - on - year. The total export inspection volume since the 2025/26 season has reached 17,934,546 tons, a 42.8% decrease year - on - year [6] - **Technical Analysis** - In the past five trading days, soybean oil futures have shown a volatile consolidation trend. The closing prices from January 7 to 13 were 7958 yuan, 7944 yuan, 7994 yuan, 7994 yuan, and 7986 yuan respectively, with prices fluctuating in the range of 7940 - 8000 yuan [6] 4.4 Market Outlook - The short - term soybean oil price is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile pattern due to tight supply, cautious demand, and the medium - level operating rate of oil mills [9]