Report Overview - Research Variety: Live pigs - Report Type: Daily report - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 1. Futures Market - The opening price of the main contract LH2603 of live pig futures was 11,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 11,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,730 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.08%. The trading volume was 57,954 lots, and the turnover was 10.937 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [2] 2. Spot Market - The daily basis was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.42%. The basis widened slightly compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the spot price still supported the futures [4] 3. Influencing Factors - Stable average slaughter weight: The average slaughter weight of external ternary live pigs nationwide was 123.32 kg, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There was no significant reduction in supply, but the marginal demand for large-weight pigs improved [5] - Increased reluctance to sell among farmers: Affected by low-temperature weather, the market demand for large-weight pigs increased, and some farmers held back on sales, slowing the short-term supply rhythm [6] - No significant increase in consumption: After New Year's Day, the fresh sales demand weakened, the cured meat consumption was coming to an end, and the Spring Festival in 2026 was late (February 17). The centralized stocking had not started yet, and the terminal digestion capacity was limited [6] 4. Market Outlook - The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. The upward drivers come from the rigidity of spot prices and the expectation of capacity reduction, while the downward pressure stems from the high inventory level and the uncertainty of feed costs. Attention should be paid to the spot price trend in mid-to-late January, the latest data on the inventory of breeding sows, and the changes in feed prices [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: January 12, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Research variety: Palm oil [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment consulting certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract P2605 was 8,724 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous trading day. The opening price was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,748 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8,574 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 512,074 lots, and the trading volume was 44.339 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The basis was -74.00 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was -0.86%, continuing the contango structure [4] Group 4: Influencing Factors - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 2.34 million tons (data as of December 31, 2025), and the high inventory suppressed price increases. The national commercial inventory of palm oil was 765,000 tons (as of January 7, 2026), and the inventory in East China was 335,000 tons, and the inventory pressure remained. The spot price was lower than the futures price, and the basis remained negative, reflecting the market's expectation of loose future supply [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - It is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term. Supported by a technical rebound in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high inventory and import replenishment pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in Malaysia's production and the rhythm of domestic imports [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The treasury bond futures market rose across the board on January 8, 2026, continuing the recent oscillating upward trend. The long - term varieties had significantly higher gains than the short - term ones, reflecting the market's optimistic sentiment towards the easing of monetary policy and the decline of long - term interest rates. The market is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern, but the performance of different - term varieties may continue to diverge [2][5] Summary by Directory Market Overview - On January 8, 2026, the treasury bond futures market rose across the board with a steepening trend. The 30 - year treasury bond futures were particularly strong, with the main contract rising 0.37%. The 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rose 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively. The 30 - year contract's trading volume reached 124,227 lots, a recent high [2] Analysis of Each Variety's Market Trend - **2 - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contract opened at 102.35 yuan, fluctuated between 102.324 - 102.368 yuan, and closed at 102.358 yuan, up 0.02%. The trading volume was 38,830 lots, the holding volume was 68,972 lots (down 889 lots from the previous trading day), and the total holding volume was 75,192 lots (down 201 lots) [2] - **5 - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contract opened at 105.535 yuan, with the highest at 105.615 yuan and the lowest at 105.5 yuan, closing at 105.6 yuan, up 0.09%. The trading volume was 69,446 lots, the holding volume was 145,240 lots (down 4,357 lots), and the total holding volume was 165,323 lots (down 3,421 lots) [3] - **10 - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contract opened at 107.67 yuan, oscillated upward throughout the day, with the highest at 107.8 yuan and the lowest at 107.625 yuan, closing at 107.79 yuan, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 75,784 lots, and the holding volume was 247,814 lots (up 3,740 lots) [3] - **30 - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The current - quarter continuous contract opened at 110.61 yuan, with the highest at 111.05 yuan, closing at 111.0 yuan, up 0.37%. The trading volume was 124,227 lots, and the holding volume was 152,672 lots. The price showed a V - shaped reversal [4] Influencing Factors - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank conducted 9.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a winning bid rate of 1.40% (unchanged from before) and 110 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations for equal - volume renewal, which maintained a good capital environment for the bond market [4] - **Macro - policy Orientation**: The central bank's 2026 work conference stated to continue the moderately loose monetary policy, which strengthened the market's expectation of future monetary policy easing and the decline of long - term interest rates [4] - **Funding Situation**: The inter - bank market liquidity remained abundant. Most short - term Shibor varieties rose but remained at a low level, which reduced the volatility of short - term treasury bond futures [5] Short - term Outlook - The treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern, but the performance of different - term varieties may continue to diverge. Key factors to focus on include the central bank's future use of monetary policy tools, the strength of January's credit "good start", January's inflation data, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield trend [5][6]

1. Report Information - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Du Yu (Qualification Number: F3075043; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0017815) [1] - Report Name: Shanghai Futures Daily [1] 2. Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the lead futures main contract (Wind code: PB.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed strong performance, with a closing price of 17,830 yuan/ton, up 1.83% from the previous trading day [2] - The trading volume significantly increased to 83,341 lots, a 46.5% increase from the previous trading day's 56,885 lots, indicating a significant increase in market trading activity [2] - The open interest was 52,009 lots, a slight increase of 1,009 lots or about 2.0% from the previous trading day's 51,000 lots [2] - The settlement price was 17,690 yuan/ton, lower than the closing price, indicating an optimistic market sentiment, but some long - positions took profits at the end of the session [2] - The lead futures showed an oscillating upward trend on that day, mainly boosted by the market's growth expectation for the technology hardware and new energy vehicle industries, and the overall price - rising atmosphere of industrial resources also supported the lead price [2] 3. Spot Market Basis Analysis - On January 7, 2026, the lead futures basis was - 240 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 1.3644%, showing a futures premium pattern [3] - The average price of 1 lead in the spot market on that day was 17,590 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 17,830 yuan/ton, with the futures price higher than the spot price [3] - Looking back at the recent basis changes, the basis briefly narrowed to - 5 yuan/ton on January 5, indicating that the futures and spot prices were once close to balance, but it expanded again to - 80 yuan and - 240 yuan on January 6 and 7, reflecting the enhanced optimistic expectation of the futures market for the long - term lead price [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Peanuts - Researcher: Chen Bo [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term peanut futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Technical analysis shows that the price has rebounded for two consecutive days after hitting a recent low, with increased trading volume, indicating a warming of short - term market sentiment. Fundamentally, the insufficient supply in the production area supports the price, but the weak demand for peanut oil limits the upside potential [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the opening price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange peanut futures main contract (PK.CZC) was 8066 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8124 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8038 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8072 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 144,402 lots, the turnover was 5.83125 billion yuan, and the open interest was 164,702 lots. The price showed a volatile upward trend, and the trading volume and turnover increased compared to the recent average, indicating enhanced market trading activity [2] 3.2 Spot Market - From January to June 2025, the basis showed a volatile downward trend, gradually falling from 1582 yuan to around 1000 yuan, reflecting a narrowing of the price difference between futures and spot. The long - term positive basis indicates that the peanut futures market has been in a state of spot premium, reflecting the market's expectation of tight peanut spot supply [4][5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - On January 7, the market price of peanut general rice was stable, with an average price of 8571 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The supply at the grass - roots level was still insufficient. The trading in the Henan production area was good, and the replenishment and procurement by merchants in the Northeast production area increased slightly. Most transactions were negotiated. The mainstream price of the peanut oil market was 14,320 yuan/ton, the peak demand season was less than expected, the downstream trading atmosphere was sluggish, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders was not high. The stalemate between limited supply in the peanut production area and cautious replenishment by traders is the main factor supporting the current price [6] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - In the past 20 trading days, the peanut futures price showed a range - bound trend, mainly fluctuating in the range of 7920 - 8120 yuan/ton. After hitting a stage low of 7938 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, the price rebounded for two consecutive days, rising 1.56% on January 6 and 1.0% on January 7, forming a short - term rebound trend. The current price has broken through the upper limit of the 20 - day trading range, showing signs of stabilization and recovery on the technical side. The 20 - day high of 8124 yuan/ton forms a short - term resistance level, and around 8000 yuan/ton below forms the main support [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily Market Trend - The main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a fluctuating upward trend. The opening price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 16,130 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 15,790 yuan/ton, and it closed at 16,050 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 328,277 lots, and the open interest increased by 17,689 lots to 199,609 lots [1] 2. Spot Market Situation - The spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,650 yuan/ton [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Analysis - Supply side: The domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the raw material supply in Hainan and Vietnam is limited, which supports the rubber price. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 333,260.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level [1] - Macro aspect: On January 5, the US dollar index was 98.3291, which decreased compared with the previous period, alleviating the cost pressure of imported rubber priced in US dollars to a certain extent [1] 4. Short - Term Outlook and Factors to Watch - Supply side: In late January, the main production areas such as northeastern Thailand and Vietnam will gradually enter the production - reduction period, and the winter storage demand of processing plants in the production areas may support the upstream raw material prices [2] - Demand side: Although the capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises is currently differentiated, and some enterprises arrange short - term maintenance due to inventory and order pressure, the "Implementation Rules for the Subsidies for Replacing Old Cars with New Ones in 2026" has been implemented since January 1st, which is expected to support the automobile market and drive the recovery of tire demand [2] - Inventory: It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the changes in the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone and domestic social inventory. If the inventory growth slows down or there are signs of destocking, it may further boost market confidence [2][3] - Other factors: It is also necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in Southeast Asian production areas, the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the impact of macro - economic policies on the market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding after previous adjustments and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term. Considering the current pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle with weak demand and reduced supply - side压榨量, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 6, 2026, the opening price of the main soybean oil futures contract (Y.DCE) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7,868.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,928.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,866.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,912.0 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 263,014 lots, the trading value was 20.77839 billion yuan, and the latest open interest was 621,847 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 6, 2026, the basis of the main soybean oil futures contract was 518.0 yuan/ton. With the futures closing price at 7,912.0 yuan/ton, the spot price was higher than the futures price, showing a pattern of strong spot and weak futures [5] 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: Affected by the international market, the soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on January 5, providing some support for domestic soybean oil futures. On January 6, the mainstream reference price of domestic first - grade soybean oil was 8,420 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan increase from the previous working day, with a 0.48% increase. On that day, the oil mill operating rate was about 52.29%. Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.88 million tons, a 220,000 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 100,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Since January 1, 2026, the pilot policy of verified deduction of input VAT on agricultural products in the soybean oil processing industry has been stopped [6] - **技术分析**: In the past month, the soybean oil futures price showed a pattern of volatile decline followed by a stable rebound. The price was around 8,230 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, then declined to a low of 7,712 yuan/ton on December 19, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The closing price on January 6 was 7,912 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 2.6% from the previous low, indicating short - term price stabilization [7] 3.4行情展望 - **技术面预期**: After the previous adjustment, the soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term [10] - **基本面展望**: The current market is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle, but the demand is weak and the spot market trading is light. The reduction in the supply - side压榨量 provides some support for prices. Overall, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton Futures Daily Report [1] - Report date: January 6, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the main cotton futures contract CF2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [2]. - The intraday high was 14,885 yuan/ton, the low was 14,640 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume was 394,098 lots, and the turnover was 2.909 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Spot Market - The basis of the CF2605 contract on the day was 960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 6.15% [4]. - The spot reference price (Xinjiang 15,450 yuan/ton) was higher than the futures price [4]. - The basis remained unchanged from the previous trading day, maintaining a significant positive structure [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - As of December 15, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.349 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 983,900 tons [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (C32S) was reported at 21,240 yuan/ton [5]. - The spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,450 yuan/ton, supporting the stability of the basis [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestic cotton prices are supported by the expectation of tightened supply and the recovery of high - value - added cotton product exports [6]. - However, the high commercial inventory and cautious downstream procurement restrict the upside space [6]. - It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the new import quota regulations and RMB exchange rate changes [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 5, 2026, the opening price of the main contract (RM.CZC) of rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2354.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2350.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decline from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 271,120 lots, the open interest was 644,700 lots, and the trading volume was 6.41268 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On January 5, 2026, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2440.0 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton. The basis was 79 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The positive basis reflects the current tight supply in the spot market, supporting the spot price to maintain a premium over the futures price [3][5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Slow clearance of Australian rapeseed, zero operating rate of domestic oil mills, and low inventory of coastal oil mills in the rapeseed industry lead to tight market supply, which supports prices [6]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises have high finished - product inventory, weak purchasing willingness, mainly replenishing stocks in small orders and purchasing as needed. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness, resulting in mediocre demand [6]. - **Related Markets**: The price of the soybean meal market is stable, and the domestic mainstream reference price of soybean meal is 3105 yuan/ton. The futures market maintains a low - level range - bound oscillation, which restricts the price of rapeseed meal [6]. - **Policy and Trade**: The progress of China - Australia rapeseed procurement policy and changes in China - Canada relations are the focus of the market. The result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is still unclear, increasing market uncertainty [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Technically, the price is above the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal. If the supply shortage persists, the price may remain firm; if the import policy loosens, the supply pressure may be relieved [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the week of December 22 - 26, 2025, the rapeseed meal market showed a fluctuating upward trend. The Canadian canola futures hit a nine - month low and still face pressure due to a record harvest, high inventory, and weak export demand, with no short - term trend improvement expected. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the current oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply of rapeseed meal. However, Australian rapeseed is arriving at ports, increasing the long - term supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, rapeseed meal will maintain a fluctuating trend with no significant fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The rapeseed meal futures price showed a fluctuating upward trend during the week. As of Friday, the main contract, rapeseed meal rm2605, closed at 2391 points, with a high of 2404 points and a low of 2309 points. The position was 650,686 lots, an increase of 52,198 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume was 1.6701 million lots, an increase of 321,800 lots from the previous week [4][5]. - **Variety Market**: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, all contracts rose to varying degrees. The total position of the variety was 779,859 lots, and the trading volume was 1,888,527 lots [7]. - **Related Market**: The rapeseed meal options traded 446,920 lots during the week, with a total position of 118,745 lots, an increase of 28,801 lots in position, and a total of 6 lots exercised during the week [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot price of rapeseed meal showed a fluctuating upward trend during the week. On December 22, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,450 yuan/ton, and on December 26, it was 2,488.33 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of rapeseed meal fluctuated gently during the week, ranging from 113 yuan/ton to 96 yuan/ton [12]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 0, the same as the previous week [13]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The market has a strong expectation that the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed products will gradually become looser after December with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and Russian rapeseed oil in the 2025/2026 season. Although there was news that some Russian rapeseed oil was returned, which stimulated a short - term rebound in rapeseed oil prices, the overall trend of looser supply and demand remains unchanged, limiting the market's expectation of rapeseed meal price increases [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The rapeseed meal rm2605 contract showed a fluctuating and strengthening adjustment during the week. The prices on Thursday and Friday rose strongly, indicating a short - term upward rebound. The price was above the moving averages of various periods, and the weekly low was effectively supported near the previous low. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the upper high on the price [17]. 3.4 Market Outlook The price of the rapeseed meal futures rm2605 contract was strongly influenced by market sentiment this week. In the short term, it may continue to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future trend. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of the Canadian rapeseed import policy and the arrival and operation of domestic imported soybeans and rapeseed on prices [20].