Guo Jin Qi Huo

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沪锡期货日报-20250917
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 07:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract is expected to continue its volatile upward trend, but investors need to pay attention to changes in macroeconomic data, industry supply - demand dynamics, and technical indicators [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: The Shanghai Tin 2510 contract opened at 273,880 yuan/ton today, 1,030 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day's settlement price of 272,850 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated actively during the session, reaching a high of 275,030 yuan/ton and a low of 272,320 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 273,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 54,239 lots, a decrease compared to 69,879 lots in the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: There are 12 contracts for Shanghai Tin futures. The total trading volume of the variety is 77,872 lots, and the total open interest of the Shanghai Tin contracts is 58,542 lots, with the open interest of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract being 26,117 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract today is 273,960 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market on the same day is 270,188 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 3,772 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: On the supply side, smelters in Yunnan, Jiangxi and other places in China are restricted by raw material shortages, and their capacity utilization rates are continuously under pressure. Coupled with the periodic maintenance of smelters in Yunnan, the spot supply of tin shows a structural tightening. On the demand side, the new energy vehicle sector in the new energy industry performs well, increasing the demand for tin, but traditional demand areas such as tin - plated sheets are squeezed by aluminum substitutes, and industries such as tin chemicals and float glass mainly have existing rigid demand [7][8].
锰硅期货周报-20250917
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 07:18
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the week from September 8 to September 12, 2025, the ferromanganese silicon market first showed a strong - side oscillation driven by anti - involution information and then shifted to a wide - range oscillation due to emotional disturbances. The overall long - short game was intense. The price of the futures main contract fluctuated within a controllable range, the spot quotes were regionally differentiated with local adjustments, the steel tender procurement volume increased or decreased, but the pricing was under pressure. The cost - side manganese ore quotes were mixed, and the total inventory slightly increased. The game between supply - demand and cost made the market lack a clear unilateral direction. In the short term, the market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tender pricing and actual manganese ore transaction situations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The price of the ferromanganese silicon main contract 2601 oscillated during the week, adjusting in the range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a relatively stable price center of gravity and a phased balance of power between long and short sides [3]. - **Variety Market**: Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, the ferromanganese silicon variety showed an oscillation pattern of "strong first and then stable". The table shows the detailed market data of different contracts, including opening, high, low, closing prices, price changes, positions, trading volumes, and turnovers [6]. - **Related Market**: The overall trading activity of the ferromanganese silicon options market was average. The implied volatility fluctuated in a narrow range, and the long - short positions in the options market were basically balanced, indicating that the market had little long - short divergence and investors preferred risk - hedging operations [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market**: The domestic ferromanganese silicon spot quotes showed regional differentiation, and some areas adjusted prices. The initial replenishment operations at the beginning of the week decreased as market sentiment became more volatile, and the overall trading atmosphere cooled [9]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between futures and spot prices was in a reasonable range, with the spot price at a premium of 104 - 204 yuan/ton over the futures price of the 2601 contract. The basis fluctuated slightly during the week [10]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of ferromanganese silicon registered warehouse receipts remained in the range of 65,000 - 67,000 tons as of September 12, basically the same as last week [13]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On the supply side, China's imports of manganese ore from Brazil decreased significantly, but the current domestic manganese ore inventory was still high, so the short - term impact was limited. On the demand side, the downstream steel mills' procurement volume varied, and their price - pressing intention was strong. On the cost side, international manganese ore suppliers' quotes were mixed [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The moving average system of the 2601 main contract did not form a clear long or short arrangement, and the MACD indicator showed that the long - short forces were balanced, lacking the power to drive significant price fluctuations [14]. 3.4 Market Outlook In the short term, the ferromanganese silicon market may continue the wide - range oscillation pattern. In the long term, its market trend depends on the recovery of downstream steel demand and the supply and price of upstream manganese ore. There are still many uncertainties in the long - term market, and key data on both supply and demand sides need to be closely tracked [17][18].
菜粕期货周报-20250917
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 03:29
成文日期:20250915 报告周期:周报 十字品种:菜 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 相互用 - The Free 核心观点: 当周(20250908-0912)菜粕期货价格呈现高位震荡态势。菜 粕现货价格震荡上涨,贸易商仍有惜售情绪,下游刚需采购为主。 油厂开机率偏低,压榨菜粕库存下降,市场继续关注后期中加贸易 关系及菜籽原料供应情况。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 当周菜粕期货价格整体呈现震荡态势。截至周五,主力合约菜 粕 2601(rm2601)收盘至 2531 点,最高价 2572 点,最低价 2522 点,持仓 402900 手,较上周增加 6326手,成交量 157.50 万手,较 上周减少 7.45 万手。 1.2 品种行情 菜粕期货周度行情,各合约均有不同涨跌,品种持仓量 658940 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 手,成交量 1972034 手。 图 2:菜粕期货行情表 | 合约代 ...
沪铝期货日报-20250916
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:24
Report Overview - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Shanghai Aluminum Futures - Researcher: Cao Baiquan 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, aluminum prices may continue to break through upwards and then fluctuate. The market is focusing on the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. If a rate cut is implemented, it may further boost non - ferrous metal prices [14] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 12, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2510 contract showed an oscillating upward trend throughout the day, with significant fluctuations during the day session and a positive closing line. The daily trading volume was 165,717 lots, and the open interest was 209,277 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 611,039 lots, an increase of 41,680 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 increased by 4,695 lots, indicating capital inflow during the upward movement [5] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 12, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2510 weakened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 21,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 100 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro Information**: The global macro - environment has shown positive changes recently, providing upward momentum for the non - ferrous metal market. Weak US economic data has increased market bets on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude. Tensions in the Middle East have raised risk - aversion sentiment, and the strong performance of gold has also driven the non - ferrous metal sector. The fluctuating US dollar index has caused short - term disturbances to dollar - denominated commodities [8] - **Fundamental Information**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is rigid, with high operating rates in major production areas and capacity approaching the limit. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in shipments, but high port inventories in China ensure sufficient overall supply. Downstream demand is showing signs of improvement with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, more active purchasing by downstream players, a slight increase in orders for aluminum processing plants, and a slight recovery in processing fees for some aluminum products [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2510 contract showed an increase in open interest and price on the daily chart, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range. The MACD formed a golden cross, the green bars continued to expand, trading volume increased, and long - position funds were active [10]
红枣期货周报:红枣期货高位维持震荡弱势调整-20250915
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the week of 20250908 - 20250912, the jujube futures maintained a high - level shock and had a weak adjustment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Main Contract Price**: The jujube futures mainly fluctuated during the week, breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands to find support below. The trading volume decreased while the open interest remained unchanged. The CJ2601 contract of jujube futures opened at 10,960 yuan, closed at 11,155 yuan, up 155 yuan or 1.41%. The highest price was 11,285 yuan, and the lowest was 10,850 yuan. The open interest was 133,000 lots, an increase of 2,343 lots compared with last week. The trading volume was 558,000 lots, a decrease of 161,000 lots compared with last week [3]. - **Sub - main Contract Price**: The CJ2605 sub - main contract of jujube futures mainly fluctuated and had a rebound during the week. The trading volume decreased while the open interest increased. The contract opened at 11,090 yuan, closed at 11,290 yuan, up 150 yuan or 1.35%. The highest price was 11,420 yuan, and the lowest was 11,000 yuan. The open interest was 49,154 lots, an increase of 3,097 lots compared with last week. The trading volume was 83,574 lots [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook The jujube futures broke below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and rebounded slightly, and the market weakened. Currently, the jujube inventory is high, and the consumption boost is not obvious. With the upcoming listing of new - season jujubes, the support for jujube prices has weakened. The market is under pressure due to high inventory, a large number of registered warehouse receipts facing significant delivery pressure, and considerable price pressure from the new jujube listing. The jujube market may maintain a weak trend. It is advisable to use options to hedge market risks [8].
PTA期货周报:成本支撑不足市场波动降低-20250915
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - During the week from September 8 - 12, 2025, the PTA price in the futures market showed an oscillating correction, and the TA spot price was mainly adjusted oscillatingly affected by international oil prices. The operating rate of TA factories rebounded to around 75%, with an expected increase in supply. The current main contradiction in the market is the insufficient demand for crude oil, and the weak rebound momentum of crude oil may affect the rebound of TA prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - Due to weak energy prices and technical support, international oil prices were weak, failing to support futures prices. The PTA main 01 contract fell 0.51%, with the highest price reaching 4712 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4620 yuan/ton, finally closing at 4648 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the PTA main 01 contract continued to decline, and market enthusiasm continued to weaken [2]. 1.2 Variety Market - The weekly PTA futures market continued to show a situation where far - month contracts were relatively strong, with far - month prices remaining relatively stable above 4700 yuan/ton. The price of TA2510 was relatively low, indicating weak spot prices. With high inventory levels and weak international energy, near - month contracts may continue to be weak [4]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market Conditions - The PTA spot market in East China showed range - bound oscillations. The decline of TA spot prices slowed down. The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was cautious, with few actual purchases from the polyester end. The basis was weakly operating, and the offer of main port goods was about 75 yuan/ton lower than the futures TA2601. The spot negotiation price was between 4580 - 4630 yuan/ton [6][7]. 2.2 Basis Data - The spot price remained weak, with a negative and relatively weak basis, and the futures price was at a premium. High PTA inventory and insufficient cost support from international oil prices led to a relatively pessimistic spot market. Far - month contracts had price premiums due to higher energy demand in the cold season [8]. 2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered PTA warehouse receipts continued to decline, and the decline accelerated. As of September 12, it dropped to 9893 lots. Besides seasonal factors, the continuous decrease in warehouse receipts reflected insufficient hedging motivation and increased warehouse receipt cancellation [10]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Fundamental Influencing Factors - Although TA inventory was being reduced, the supply of TA rebounded, and the future inventory reduction efficiency might decrease. With insufficient energy cost support and weak demand, crude oil prices oscillated weakly, and the upward momentum of energy was insufficient, which might suppress the rebound of TA prices. The operating rate of factories rebounded, and supply might increase after the maintenance in some areas was completed [12]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The buying power on the weekly K - line was insufficient, and the trading volume shrank, indicating weak follow - up. The main 01 contract might continue to oscillate and consolidate, with weakened technical support. The main risk was the insufficient support of energy prices, which might drive the TA market down [13]. 4. Market Outlook - Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the expected influence on the TA market was expanding. In the short term, the price would mainly fluctuate with energy, and in the long term, it might trade based on the interest - rate cut logic. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, market expectations might gradually improve. However, due to weak overseas energy prices and insufficient technical support, TA still faced adjustment pressure. With weak crude oil prices and high inventory levels, the PTA futures market was expected to continue to oscillate [15][17].
沪锡期货周报-20250915
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 10:56
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the SHFE tin 2510 contract experienced a tug - of - war between bulls and bears in a complex market environment, with significant price fluctuations. Positive macro data spurred active capital inflows, driving up the price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The price of the SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of first declining and then rising. In the first half of the week, it fluctuated downward due to macro - economic data and market sentiment. In the second half, with marginal improvement in macro sentiment and supply - side tightness, bullish forces strengthened, leading to a strong rebound and an overall price increase. The price fluctuated sharply, and the battle between bulls and bears was intense [3]. - **Variety Price**: The report provides detailed price data for multiple SHFE tin contracts, including opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and other information. For example, the sn2510 contract had a weekly opening price of 273,340, a high of 274,900, a low of 268,010, and a closing price of 273,950 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts were 7,326 tons, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day. The cumulative decrease in SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts in the past week was 71 tons [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Aspect**: On the supply side, tin ore mining in production areas such as Yunnan in China has been continuously restricted, and some smelters continued their maintenance in September, constraining the output of concentrates and supporting the spot price. On the demand side, the traditional electronic solder field was weak due to the drag of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with lackluster demand growth for SHFE tin. The lack of demand led to light trading in the spot market and limited upward momentum for the spot price [8]. - **Macro Factors**: The year - on - year growth rate of the US PPI in August unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, and the core PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. This strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, weakening the US dollar index and providing some support for the US - dollar - denominated SHFE tin price [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook Given the rigid constraints on raw materials and maintenance plans, the smelter operating rate has dropped significantly, and there are no signs of substantial improvement in the short term. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the tin price is likely to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [10].
红枣期货周报-20250915
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 10:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - During the week of September 8 - 12, 2025, the red date futures maintained a high - level oscillation and underwent a weak adjustment [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Main Contract Price**: The red date futures mainly oscillated during the week, breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands to find lower support. Trading volume decreased while open interest remained unchanged. The CJ2601 contract of red date futures opened at 10,960 yuan and closed at 11,155 yuan, up 155 yuan or 1.41%. The highest price was 11,285 yuan and the lowest was 10,850 yuan. Open interest was 133,000 lots, an increase of 2,343 lots from the previous week. Trading volume was 558,000 lots, a decrease of 161,000 lots from the previous week [3]. - **Sub - main Contract Price**: The CJ2605 sub - main contract of red date futures mainly oscillated and rebounded during the week. Trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The contract opened at 11,090 yuan and closed at 11,290 yuan, up 150 yuan or 1.35%. The highest price was 11,420 yuan and the lowest was 11,000 yuan. Open interest was 49,154 lots, an increase of 3,097 lots from the previous week. Trading volume was 83,574 lots [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The red date futures broke below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and then rebounded, with the market turning weak. Currently, red date inventories are high and consumption boost is not obvious. With the upcoming listing of new - season red dates, price support for red dates has weakened. The market is under pressure due to high inventories, a large number of registered warehouse receipts facing significant delivery pressure, and considerable price pressure from the new - season red dates. Red date futures may maintain a weak market. It is advisable to use options to hedge market risks [8].
国债期货周报-20250915
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 09:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures showed an overall volatile pattern. The long - end was mainly dragged down by fund redemption pressure and the siphon effect of the stock market, while the short - end was relatively resilient supported by a stable capital market. This week, the market is expected to fluctuate and recover. Policy expectations and loose capital will lead to sentiment repair. The elasticity of 30 - year ultra - long - end Treasury bond futures may significantly increase, and the 10 - year contract is expected to stabilize in a range [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Price - The main contract of the five - year Treasury bond (TF2512) opened lower and moved higher on September 8 (Monday), closing with a positive line on the daily K - line. It then closed with negative lines for two consecutive trading days, a long positive line on Thursday, and continued the upward trend on Friday. This week, the trading volume continued to increase, and the daily K - line MACD indicator continued to run with a golden cross below the zero axis [3] 3.1.2 Variety Market - Among the 12 Treasury bond futures contracts, the two - year Treasury bond contracts (TS2509, TS2512, TS2603) had drops of 0.002 yuan, 0.014 yuan, and 0.056 yuan respectively. The 30 - year Treasury bond contracts (TL2509, TL2512, TL2603) had drops of 1.26 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, showing an overall downward market pattern [6] 3.2 Spot Market - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations this week: On September 8, it conducted 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 8.8 billion yuan after offsetting the due 182.7 billion yuan. On September 12, it conducted 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchases (the specific due amount was not clearly mentioned). The total net injection for the week was 196.1 billion yuan after conducting 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and offsetting the due 1068.4 billion yuan [8][9] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Important Events - On September 12, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, with an issuance scale of 82 billion yuan, a term of 30 years, and a fixed coupon rate. The re - issuance will use a competitive bidding method, with the bidding time from 10:35 to 11:35 on September 19, and no additional bids from Class A members [10] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - From the trend of the five - year Treasury bond (TF2512) contract this week, the market closed with positive lines on three trading days and negative lines on two trading days, indicating that market investors have some differences in profit - taking from Treasury bond futures trading at this position. The continuous rise of the stock market index has attracted more investors, forming a seesaw effect with Treasury bond trading. The issuance of 82 billion yuan of 30 - year Treasury bonds on September 19 may expand the supply, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the market will break the current trend and form a new directional trend [11] 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the market is expected to fluctuate and recover. Policy expectations such as the central bank's bond - buying news and loose capital will lead to sentiment repair. The elasticity of 30 - year ultra - long - end Treasury bond futures may significantly increase, and the 10 - year contract is expected to stabilize in a range [14]
工业硅期货周报-20250915
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 09:28
成文日期:20250915 报告周期:周报 研究品种:工业在 研究员:曹柏泉(从业资格号:F03122015;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0019820) 工业硅期货周报 核心观点: 当周 (20250908-0912) 期货市场工业硅价格宽幅运行,现货 价格横盘偏强整理。期货市场周内主力合约 si2511 在 8200-8800 元 /吨附近波动,周内趋势表现震荡偏强,工业硅下游保持逢低补库。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 当周工业硅期货价格区间偏弱震荡,呈现三阳二阴走势,截至 周末, 主力合约工业硅(si2511)周度下跌 75 点,收盘至 8745 点, 最高价 8795 点,最低价 8215 点,持仓 27.8 万手,成交量于过去时 段平均水平有所下跌,符合调整修正行情特性。 图 1: 工业硅(si2511) 日纺 数据来源: wh6&国金期货研究所 1.2 品种行情 工业硅期货周度行情,工业硅(si2608)合约价格最高,保持 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 2.1 现货行情 本 ...