研究员:刘伟恒 咨询证号(Z0021991) 撰写时间: 2025.06.16 回顾周期：周报 红枣周报 周度行情回顾 图 1: 红枣 CJ2509 主力合约走势图周线 量 251117.00 持合量 77 图片来源:国金期货行情软件 周度行情回顾：红枣主力 CJ2509 合约，06 月 09 日-06 月 13 日，周开盘价 8805 元 /吨，最高价 9060 元/吨，收盘价 8910 元/吨，最低价 8795 元/吨，结算价 8937 元/吨, 涨跌+90 元/吨，或+1.02%，持仓量 77083 手，周增仓-2087 手，成交量 25.1 万手，增 加 9.3 万手。 撰写品种:红枣 2025 6 12 36 10693 15 0.12% 6308 69.51% 2025 6 13 8249 41245 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 减少 45 手．或 225 吨。 三、行情综述 红枣主力 CI2509 合约周度反弹为主,冲高回落,有所震荡,成交量放大,持仓量 减少。从周 κ 线来看, 红枣持续反弹,空间收窄,冲高回落,前期压力区间显现 ...

2025 6 13 2263 / 72 / 3.08% 2356 / 2260 / 21.5 4 210.5 26.1 | | 期货收盘价格（元/吨） | 2335 | 2263 | -3.08% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 山东 32%碱成交价 | 880 | 870 | -1.14% | | | | 指标 江苏 32%碱成交价 | 上周 de0 | 本周 960 | 涨跌 0% | 备注 | 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 2025 6 12 20 80.9% 2.5% 3.0% 74.1% 3.3% 83.1% 27.7% 55.4% 2025 6 12 20 40.53 ( ) 6.07% 6. ...

PTA 图片来源：国金期货数据宝 二、旺季去库趋势虽未变,库存消化效率有所降低 海外地缘政治冲突扩大情况下,市场观望情绪加强,TA 去库速度有所放缓,基本 面方面的支撑有一定减弱。库存问题是今年 TA 重要交易话题，去库速度降低或影响 行情反弹的驱动力。总体上，全球金融市场风险释放时间不足的问题仍然存在，能源 价格的反弹过程难以一蹴而就,需求增长才是长期上涨的驱动要素。长周期视角下, TA 驱动力问题仍然在于原油，海外衰退预期并未充分减退，原油缺乏"正反馈"的情 况下 TA 风险管理工作仍然具备必要性。 图 2：PTA 库存季节性走势统计 图片来源:国金期货数据宝 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 6 PTA TA TA TA 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 四、行情波动扩大，关注原油动态 能源价格波动属于当前影响 TA 行情的最重要驱动要素, 原油日 κ 修补技术性缺 口，大幅降低了 TA 逆势上涨后期回调的压力。原油价格波动扩大的状态对 TA 期货价 格影响 ...

028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 ...

Core Viewpoints - Overseas geopolitical conflicts have intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, slowing down the TA destocking speed and weakening fundamental support. The destocking speed may affect the driving force for market rebound. In the long - term, demand growth is the driving factor for long - term price increases, and TA's driving force still lies in crude oil. Risk management for TA is necessary due to the unsubsided overseas recession expectations [5]. - Energy price fluctuations are the most important driving factor for the TA market. The repair of the technical gap in the daily K of crude oil has reduced the pressure on TA's late - stage callback after a counter - trend rise. However, the rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to geopolitical factors rather than substantial demand growth, so the sustainability of the price increase is limited. Given the high absolute level of TA inventory, risk management and hedging should be considered [10]. Section Summaries Two: The destocking trend in the peak season remains unchanged, but the inventory digestion efficiency has decreased - Overseas geopolitical conflicts have led to increased market wait - and - see sentiment, slowing down the TA destocking speed and weakening fundamental support. The destocking speed may affect the driving force for market rebound. The problem of insufficient risk release time in the global financial market still exists, and energy price rebounds are difficult to achieve overnight. In the long - run, demand growth is the driving factor for price increases, and TA's driving force still lies in crude oil. Risk management for TA is necessary due to unsubsided overseas recession expectations [5]. Four: Market volatility has increased, pay attention to crude oil dynamics - Energy price fluctuations are the most important driving factor for the TA market. The repair of the technical gap in the daily K of crude oil has reduced the pressure on TA's late - stage callback after a counter - trend rise. The increased volatility of crude oil prices significantly affects the TA futures price, and the rebound slope of the TA main contract has increased. However, the rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to geopolitical factors rather than substantial demand growth, so the sustainability of the price increase is limited. Given the high absolute level of TA inventory, if energy prices adjust again, market risks may still exist, so risk management and hedging should be considered [10].

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Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The support strength of iron ore prices is weakening marginally [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market Review - The spot price of 61.5% PB fines at Tianjin Port is 765.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Prices at other ports are in a downward state, with a decline ranging from 0 yuan/ton to 10.87 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - Futures Market Review - Figures related to the iron ore futures main continuous chart and the basis chart between futures and spot are provided, but no specific data description is given [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The glass futures price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend due to high inventory levels, weak demand, and the arrival of the rainy season [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Influence Factor Analysis - Supply - side pressure persists: The daily melting volume of national float glass remains stable at 156,800 tons, with both cold - repair and复产 production lines coexisting, and supply pressure has not significantly eased. The rumored transformation of coal - fired production lines in Shahe to "coal - made gas" may reduce regional costs if implemented, but currently, it only affects sentiment and actual supply has not changed significantly [5]. - Demand is weak: The rainy season affects factory inventory shipments and transactions, and deep - processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Although there are expectations of real - estate policy support, the transmission to terminal demand has not been evident [6]. - High inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.09% month - on - month, rising by 2.09 million weight boxes to 69.754 million weight boxes, and high inventory continues to suppress prices [7]. Market Outlook Given the relatively high glass inventory, weak demand, and the arrival of the rainy - season off - peak, the glass futures price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily analysis of Shanghai Aluminum futures, covering the market situation on June 3, 2025 [1][3] - The research analyst is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - On June 3, 2025, the price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed a downward trend, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day [3] - The position of al2507 was 191,144 lots, and the trading volume was 183,523 lots [3] Group 3: Macro - economic Factors - The Trump administration in the US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which intensified global trade uncertainty and put short - term pressure on aluminum prices [3] - China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in May, and export indicators improved, partially offsetting overseas negatives and limiting the decline of aluminum prices [3] Group 4: Supply and Demand - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity reached 4,319 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton policy ceiling. There was a small - scale resumption of production during the wet season in the southwest, but overall flexibility was insufficient [3] - Orders from the State Grid drove the high - level operation rate of aluminum cables, supporting short - term rigid demand [3] - In the photovoltaic sector, profile orders declined significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. Automotive aluminum demand is expected to weaken in mid - to - late June, and aluminum use in the construction and real estate sector remained sluggish [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract 2507 showed a medium - sized negative candlestick during the day, breaking below the moving average system. The MACD indicator formed a death cross, the BOLL line fell below the middle track, and funds slightly reduced positions, indicating strong short - selling power during the day [3] Group 6: Market Outlook - In the short term, macro - level tariff and trade frictions have a negative impact on aluminum prices. If the off - season demand is too weak, prices may continue to decline [3] - Considering the support of low inventory and export rush on prices, aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report on the daily situation of Shanghai Silver futures on June 4, 2025, with a focus on price, trading volume,持仓量, economic data, and tariff policies [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The risk and uncertainty of the US economy are rising, and the futures price may fluctuate strongly in the near future. Attention should be paid to global trade and geopolitical negotiations [3] Group 4: Market Data - The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8,475 yuan/kg, the lowest price was 8,451 yuan/kg, the highest price was 8,498 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 8,463 yuan/kg [3] - The trading volume was 449,000 lots, and the 持仓量 was 380,000 lots, an increase of 9,481 lots from the previous trading day [3] Group 5: US Economic Data - The number of JOLTS job openings in the US in April was 7.39 million, higher than the previous value of 7.2 million and the expected 7.1 million [3] - The ADP employment in the US in May increased by 37,000, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a previous increase of 62,000 [3] Group 6: Tariff Policy - Trump's new round of steel and aluminum tariff policy officially took effect on Wednesday, raising the tax rate from 25% to 50%, pushing the "trade worry sentiment" to the forefront of the market again [3]