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沪银期货日报-20251205
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 01:16
成文日期:20251202 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:沪银 研究员:曹柏泉(从业资格号:F03122015;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0019820) 沪银期货日报 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日(20251202)全球贵金属市场延续强势格局,白银表现显 著领先黄金。沪银主力合约 AG2602 强势上涨,收盘价为 13423 元/ 千克,日内涨幅达 2.46%,延续前一日创下的历史高位趋势。当日 开盘价为 13303 元/千克,盘中最高触及 13787 元/千克,最低下探 至 13303 元/千克,波动剧烈,显示多空博弈激烈。 图 1:沪银 2602 走势图 数据来源:文华财经 1.2 品种行情 当日成交量与持仓量双双回落,显示部分多头获利了结,市场 情绪从单边追涨转向高位震荡整理,但持仓量仍处于历史高位,表 明中长期多头趋势未改。 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 2: 沪银期货行情表 20251202 1.3 现货市场数据 2025 年 12 月 02 日国内自银现货市场没有跟随期 ...
豆粕期货日报-20251205
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-12-05 01:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the slow sales of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the CBOT soybean futures price maintains a volatile adjustment trend. The decline in domestic soybean import costs weakens the oil mills' willingness to support the price of soybean meal. Coupled with the abundant supply of soybean sources and soybean meal in the spot market and the lack of significant increase in downstream demand, the market price of soybean meal may be under pressure. In the short - term, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On December 2, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation. It opened at 3033 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 3048 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3029 yuan/ton, and closed at 3045 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a reference increase of 0.03%. The daily trading volume was 494,360 lots, and the open interest was 1,164,957 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - On the same day, most of the prices of soybean meal futures contracts rose slightly. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 3,785,832 lots, an increase of 25,028 lots compared with the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotation - On December 2, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 3020 yuan/ton with no change, in Tianjin it was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, in Rizhao it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Dongguan it was 3010 yuan/ton with no change [7][8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of soybean meal remained unchanged. The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, the same as the previous day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Information - The import cost of soybeans declined. On December 2, the import cost of US soybeans was 4537 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous day, ending a three - day increase and falling from a more than one - week high. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3950 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3917 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short - term [13].
黑链指数日报-20251201
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 11:31
成文日期:20251201 报告周期: 日报 叶究品种:黑 研究分析师:安致远(期货从业资格证号:F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 1.2 品种价格 11月28日,黑链指数多数品种延续弱势,仅螺纹钢与热卷加权 连指数日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 11 月 28 日,黑链指数全天呈现低位震荡格局。早盘以 110.25 点开盘后持续下行,最低下探 109.38 点,午后维持区间波动,最终 收于 109.95 点,较前日结算价下跌 0.47 点。当日结算价报 109.78 点,持仓量降至 741 万手,环比减少 2.79 万手;成交量升至 435.6 万手,增加 39.5 万手。 图 1: 黑链指数分时图 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 局,山西主焦煤价格 1380 元/吨,与期货基差扩大至 316 元/吨;蒙 古精煤价格 1315 元/吨,持续多日保持稳定。港口铁矿石价格青岛 港 PB 粉报 794 元/湿吨.下调 5 元/湿吨;日照港报价 793 元/湿吨。 内蒙古及宁夏硅铁现货维持 5200 元/吨,持续在低位区间运行。整 体来看,黑色系现货市场交投活跃度依然不高,各品种价格波动有 ...
玻璃期货日报-20251201
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 09:20
糖期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 成文日期:20251201 报告周期: 日报 研究分析师:安致远(期货从业资格证号:F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 当日(20251128),期货品种玻璃 FG2601 合约全天维持震荡 反弹走势,较昨日小幅度上涨,收阳线。较昨日上涨约 1.15%、收 于 1053 点。全日成交量为 1859418 手,持仓量为 1413981 手,持 仓量较昨日减少 91847 手。 图 1:玻璃 FG2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 1.2 品种价格 玻璃期货 12 个合约价格呈现近低远高的态势,全天各合约(除 2610 合约无变化以外)均有一定幅度上涨。品种持仓量 2045617 手, 较上一交易日减少 88214 手,其中活跃合约玻璃 FG2601 持仓量减 少 91847 手。 图 2:玻璃期货日行情表 | ਉੱਚ ਸੀ। ਇਹ ਸਾਂ ਦੀ ਸੀ। ਉਹ ਇੱਕ ਸਿੰਘ ਦੇ ਸਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਇ | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 島低价 | 令收當 | 今结算 | 涨跌 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 増減量 | 成交 ...
尿素期货日报-20251129
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-29 09:46
成文日期:20251126 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员:何宁(从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日(20251126)尿素期货主力合约价格震荡上涨,收盘价为 1654 元/吨。最高达 1663 元/吨,最低为 1625 元/吨,成交量 20.8 万 手,较上日增加 11.02 万手,持仓量 22.9 万手,较上日减少 0.5 万 手。 图 1:尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源:国金期货 wh6 图 2:尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 日増仓 成交量 | | --- | --- | | 尿茎2512 | 1639 20 1.24% 3388 -608 | | 尿素2601 M | 1654 21 1.29% 229335 -4980 208209 1630 | | 展素2602 - | ...
白糖期货日报-20251128
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 14:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, the domestic white sugar spot price is stable with a slight decline, while the price of the ICE white sugar futures main contract continues to rebound. On the futures market, the price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) showed a strong and volatile trend throughout the day. In the short term, the price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) may still mainly show a wide - range volatile trend at a low level [13][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Market - On November 27, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange white sugar futures main contract (SR601) showed a strong and volatile trend throughout the day, closing at 5403 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day. The trading volume was 169,362 lots, the open interest was 377,132 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was - 16,948 lots. The total long - position of the Top20 members in the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) was 264,682 lots, with a long - position difference of - 11,261 lots, and the total short - position of the Top20 members was 293,605 lots, with a short - position difference of - 11,422 lots [2] 1.2 Variety Price - SR601 closed at 5403 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.24%, trading volume of 169,362 lots, open interest of 377,132 lots, and daily increase in open interest of - 16,948 lots, with an amplitude of 0.71%. SR603 closed at 5359 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, trading volume of 49,805 lots, open interest of 72,869 lots, and daily increase in open interest of 1,215 lots, with an amplitude of 0.62%. SR605 closed at 5325 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.04%, trading volume of 51,529 lots, open interest of 203,314 lots, and daily increase in open interest of 12,561 lots, with an amplitude of 0.55%. SR607 closed at 2336 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.13%, trading volume of 1,128 lots, open interest of 7,378 lots, and daily increase in open interest of - 82 lots, with an amplitude of 0.51% [3] 1.3 Option Market - Today, the total trading volume of white sugar options was 64,236 lots, with 40,557 lots of call options and 23,679 lots of put options. The open interest of the variety was 343,211 lots, with 221,343 lots of call options and 121,868 lots of put options. The open - interest PCR was 0.5506 [3] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Quotation - According to Wind data, today's domestic white sugar spot quotation was 5,675 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous observation day [4] 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - Today, the total number of registered white sugar futures warehouse receipts was 75, a decrease of 7,618 from the previous trading day. Mainly, COFCO Sugar and Yunnan Yingmao cancelled a total of 6,824 warehouse receipts [8] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 External Market Quotes - On November 26, according to the data of Guojin Futures' market software, the opening price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.9 cents/pound, the highest price was 15.19 cents/pound, the lowest price was 14.86 cents/pound, and the closing price was 15.12 cents/pound, up 0.21 cents/pound or 1.41% from the previous day. The open interest was 475,844 lots, and the daily increase in open interest was 940 lots [9] 3.2 Basis Data - Today's white sugar basis was 267 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [12] 4. Market Outlook - The domestic white sugar spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the price of the ICE white sugar futures main contract continues to rebound. The price of the white sugar futures main contract (SR601) may still show a wide - range volatile trend at a low level in the short term [13][14]
锰硅期货日报-20251128
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 11:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, the manganese silicon futures market showed characteristics of "intertwined cost support and supply - demand contradictions, and intensified capital games", lacking short - term trend drivers. It is expected to maintain a volatile range of 5,550 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mill tender pricing, manganese ore price fluctuations, and the implementation of supply - side production cuts [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 27, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile trend. The daily session opened at 5,630 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 5,648 yuan/ton, a minimum of 5,606 yuan/ton, a closing price of 5,626 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 5,624 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The full - day trading volume was 144,376 lots, and the open interest was 332,903 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Among the 12 futures contracts, the prices of each contract varied. The total open interest of the variety was 737,538 lots, an increase of 3,127 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 37,054 lots [4][5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On November 27, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main manganese silicon contract was 77,535 contracts, the open interest of put options was 57,811 contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 0.746 [6] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - On November 27, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was 22 yuan/ton, which was smaller than the previous day [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - On November 27, the total number of registered manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 20,989, a decrease of 200 from the previous trading day [8] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - In the factory sector, recent开工 in Guangxi has been stable, with silicon - manganese production mainly concentrated in Guilin. It uses the spot trading model, and off - peak production results in low electricity costs, so production is relatively smooth. In Guizhou and Yunnan, electricity costs remain high, and new factories are shutting down, leading to a gradual decline in production. In Inner Mongolia, factory开工 has not fluctuated much. There is an expectation that a furnace of new production capacity will be put into operation at the end of the month, and another silicon - manganese furnace may be converted to produce high - chrome. Overall production is expected to have little change [9] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The manganese silicon main contract 2601 showed a volatile trend on the day. The intraday price fluctuated around the average price line, with frequent long - short games but no clear trend. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages were in a short - position arrangement, and the price was running below all the moving averages. The short - term support level was at MA5. If it cannot hold above MA5, the rebound space will be limited [10]
尿素期货日报-20251124
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 14:53
Group 1: Report Overview - Research variety: Urea [1] - Report type: Daily report - Report date: November 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - On November 20, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated upwards, closing at 1665 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1674 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1648 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,000 lots, an increase of 53,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 245,000 lots, a decrease of 4,000 lots from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Price - Urea 2512: Closing price 1651, change 0.06%, trading volume 6093 lots, a decrease of 538 lots, high 1658, low 1635, open 1648, close 1643 - Urea 2601: Closing price 1665, change 0.00%, open interest 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots, trading volume 209,245 lots, high 1661, low 1661 - Urea 2602: Closing price 1670, previous close 1668 [6] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Spot Price and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices remained generally stable, with slight differences in some regions due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1640 yuan/ton (basis -25 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1500 yuan/ton (basis -165 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1600 yuan/ton (basis -65 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1620 yuan/ton (basis -45 yuan/ton) [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry Information - Demand side: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 30.2%, and the operating rate of melamine was 53.2%. The new order transactions in the urea market were slow last week, but improved after enterprises cut prices. Currently, prices have risen slightly, and the market trading atmosphere has continued to warm up. The autumn fertilizer production of agriculture and compound fertilizer has entered the final stage, winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has declined slightly due to environmental protection factors. Although the operating rate of melamine has increased, purchases are still mainly for rigid demand [7][8] - Supply side: The winter storage process has gradually started, and the urea of Xinjiang Zhongneng has been put on the market. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the urea supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term. It is expected that the maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter will start gradually from December [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The current urea market transactions have warmed up, but the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, winter storage has not started on a large scale, and the operating rates of industries such as compound fertilizer remain low due to environmental protection and other factors. On the supply side, new production capacity is gradually being released, and the products of Xinjiang Zhongneng have been put on the market. It is expected that the urea supply will be loose in the medium and long term. The maintenance of gas - fired plants in the fourth quarter may start gradually in December, which may support the supply to some extent. The current market is still mainly for rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate. The progress of winter storage and the impact of environmental protection policies need to be monitored in the future [9]
铁矿石期货日报-20251119
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 13:31
Report Overview - Research Variety: Iron ore - Report Cycle: Daily - Date of Report: November 17, 2025 - Research Analyst: Feng Jiayu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore futures market had prices rising in an upward - trending oscillation. The price increase was driven by rising macro - policy expectations and short - term demand recovery. However, the fundamental situation of iron ore has not fundamentally improved, and the market is in a structural game. Short - term prices are supported by policy expectations and a phased increase in demand, while medium - to long - term prices face pressure from a continuous supply surplus, shrinking steel mill profits, and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include policy signals from important meetings, the sustainability of the increase in steel mill hot - metal production, and the process of port inventory reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market Conditions - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract showed an upward - trending oscillation. The lowest point was 767.5, the highest was 791, and it closed at 788.5, with a 1.81% increase. The trading volume was 351,300 lots, an increase of 84,900 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 481,400 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts generally rose, with the increase ranging from 3.5 to 14 points. The total open interest of the variety was 907,493 lots, an increase of 6,657 lots compared to the previous trading day. The i2605 contract had the largest increase in open interest, with an increase of 4,639 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 45.9 yuan/ton, a minimum of 39 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton on the reporting day [8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 900 lots, a minimum of 800 lots, and 900 lots on the reporting day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Demand Side - The steel mill hot - metal production increased slightly to 236,880 tons per day on a month - on - month basis. However, steel mill profits continued to deteriorate, the number of maintenance plans increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the hot - metal production may decline in a step - by - step manner in the future [9]. 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials suppressed the risk appetite for commodities. In China, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment widened, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, and terminal demand weakened seasonally [10].
锰硅期货日报-20251118
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 08:49
成文日期: 20251118 报告周期:日报 研究品种:锅有 研究分析师:安致远(期货从业资格证号:F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 註期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 11 月 17 日期货品种锰硅 SM2601 合约呈现震荡上行态势。日 盘开于 5752 元/ 吨,最高价 5826 元 / 吨,最低价 5742 元 / 吨,收 盘价为 5792 元/吨,结算价为 5790 元/ 吨,较前一交易日上涨 42 元 /吨。全日成交量为 207209 手,持仓量为 359008 手。 图 1:锰硅 SM2601 分时图 史分时 - 2025/11/17 星期一 PageUp/PageDown日期切换 最新5792 均价5789 5807 5788 5769 5750 5731 5712 5693 5674 09:00 10:15 11:30 15:00 数据来源:同花顺期货通 1.2 品种价格 期货 12 个合约,各合约涨跌不一。品种持仓量 595470 手,较 上一交易日减少 9109 手,其中活跃合约锰硅 SM2601,持仓量减少 2748 手 图 2:锰硅期货日行情表 | 合约 ...