Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the week of 20250929 - 0930, the caustic soda futures price showed a narrow - range consolidation with a weekly increase of 0.12%, and the spot price remained stable. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - stocking situation of downstream alumina plants and the enterprise inventory data after the National Day [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range oscillation this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH601) rose 3 yuan/ton to 2531 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase, with a high of 2536 yuan/ton, a low of 2486 yuan/ton. The position was 83,862 lots, a decrease of 24,858 lots from last week, and the trading volume decreased by 1.112 million lots to 504,382 lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Most caustic soda prices declined this week, the near - month contracts performed slightly stronger, and the position of the main contract SH601 continued to decrease [2]. - **Associated Market**: The trading volume of call options for the caustic soda 01 contract was less than that of put options this week. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2240 - 2640 point range [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, and the liquid caustic soda price in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range adjustment, the spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly. On one hand, the futures price oscillated and sorted out; on the other hand, the spot price remained stable with minor adjustments in some regions [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was stable with a weak trend. Before the holiday, the supply - demand fluctuations were relatively limited, and the purchase price of the main downstream was adjusted to 740 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily line of the main caustic soda contract SH601 had a narrow - range adjustment, the trading volume decreased significantly compared with last week, and it was currently in a downward channel [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook This week, the caustic soda futures price oscillated and sorted out, and the price strengthened on the last trading day before the holiday. The position of the main contract decreased, and the overall position remained below 100,000 lots. In terms of demand, the receiving volume of the main downstream liquid caustic soda decreased, and the overall demand was average. Enterprises also loosened their prices to destock, and the prices in some regions were under downward pressure. The profit of the main downstream alumina shrank, and the non - aluminum demand was also lower than expected, presenting a weak reality pattern. Future attention should be paid to whether the inventory - stocking demand before the commissioning of new alumina production capacity can be realized and the impact of the overall enterprise inventory change after the National Day [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alumina market is currently in a multi - empty game situation of "increasing supply, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". Supply increases both domestically and internationally, and inventory accumulates, which is the core factor suppressing prices. However, the support near the cost line is gradually emerging, reducing the risk of excessive price decline. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to maintain a weak oscillatory trend within a range [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Spot Market - Basis Data The basis of the active alumina ao2601 contract has weakened recently. The spot price of alumina in Shandong is 2880 yuan/ton, the futures contract has dropped 19 yuan/ton from the previous closing price, and the basis on that day is 24 yuan/ton [6]. 3.1 Industry Information On October 10, the domestic spot market showed a stable trend. The price of domestic active powder alumina in Henan was 5750 yuan/ton and remained unchanged since October 3. The futures market was relatively weak, and the linkage between spot and futures prices weakened due to light short - term spot trading and traders' wait - and - see attitude. The weighted full cost of alumina in the Jin and Yu regions is about 3025 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, limiting the downward space of spot prices, but there is no momentum for spot price rebound under the oversupply situation [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis The main alumina contract shows a clear oscillatory and bearish trend. On the daily line level, the contract price has been running below the 5 - day moving average since falling from the previous high. On October 10, it rebounded to 2913 yuan/ton and then fell back, confirming the suppression of the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with the previous day, and the price decline accompanied by increased volume indicates that short - selling power is still being released [8]. 4. Market Outlook The alumina market is in a situation of "supply increase, weak demand, cost support, and neutral macro - environment". The supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress prices, while the cost line provides support. In the short term, alumina futures are likely to oscillate weakly within a range [10].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In September 2025, the price of Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend. The average spot price dropped from 22,060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,770 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The core driving factors were the continuous realization of the logic of loose domestic supply, the increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, which led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - In September, Shanghai Zinc futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The monthly closing price of the main contract (ZN2510.SHF) dropped from 22,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.8%, and the settlement price also decreased by 1.7%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: narrow - range consolidation supported by macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month, a decline after the realization of the logic of loose supply and demand in the middle of the month, and a slight stabilization at the end of the month supported by pre - holiday restocking and low LME inventory. The core driving factors were the domestic supply surplus (increase in zinc ore imports and high smelting output), the under - performance of the peak demand season, and the pressure on social inventory accumulation, which led to the downward shift of the price center. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and low overseas inventory only provided periodic support [3] 1.2 Variety Market - Among the 13 contracts of Shanghai Zinc futures, the prices of each contract varied in September. The Shanghai Zinc 2509 contract rose, while the rest of the contracts declined, with fluctuations ranging from - 1000 points to 100 points. The position volume was 240,189 lots, an increase of 16,498 lots. The trading volume was about 4.418 million lots, an increase of about 810,000 lots compared with the previous month. Overall, the market trading was relatively active [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Price - In September, the spot price of Shanghai Zinc showed a trend of "stable at first, then weak, and a slight recovery at the end of the month". At the beginning of the month, boosted by the macro - interest rate cut expectation, the price oscillated in the range of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, as the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and the weakness of the peak demand season were realized, the price gradually dropped to around 21,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the pre - holiday restocking of some downstream enterprises drove a slight rebound in the spot price, but it failed to reverse the monthly downward trend [8] 2.2 Basis Data - According to Wind statistics, the basis of Shanghai Zinc was mostly negative in September, with the spot at a discount to the futures. At the end of the month, the basis narrowed to + 5 yuan/ton (September 30), mainly driven by pre - holiday restocking. However, the average basis rate for the whole month was - 0.35%, indicating that the pattern of oversupply in the spot market remained unchanged [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - Supply side: The looseness of zinc ore was transmitted to refined zinc, and the output remained at a high level. The import of zinc ore increased significantly. From January to August, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrates increased by 43.06% year - on - year, and the import processing fee (TC) rebounded to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton. The looseness at the ore end supported the production at the smelting end. The output of refined zinc increased significantly. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic refined zinc increased by more than 9% year - on - year, and the scheduled production in September was close to 610,000 tons, with continuous release of supply pressure. Smelters were actively operating. The processing fee was at a two - year high, and with the supplement of by - product profits, smelters had strong production enthusiasm, and only some enterprises slightly reduced production due to maintenance [10] - Demand side: The "Golden September" peak season was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The recovery of the operating rate of the processing industry was limited. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month, but were all lower than the same period last year, and the PMI was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprises' procurement sentiment was cautious. Terminal demand was weak. Infrastructure growth was limited, real estate sales were sluggish, automobile sales declined year - on - year, and the export of galvanized sheets was restricted. The consumption boost in the peak season was less than expected. The pre - holiday restocking effect was short - lived. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises stocked up for the National Day, and the spot trading improved slightly, but it failed to reverse the overall weak situation [11][12] 4. Market Outlook - The increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [13]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The current urea market has weak supply and demand with prominent supply pressure. Affected by continuous rainfall, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, enterprise shipments are poor, and inventory continues to accumulate. Although the daily output and operating rate have slightly declined, the daily output of 199,400 tons is still at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to be weak [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 10, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined. The closing price was 1,597 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,614 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,593 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 161,000 lots, a decrease of 83,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 339,000 lots, an increase of 72,000 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price - Urea 2510: The latest price was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 1.06%. The open interest was 2,610 lots, a decrease of 125 lots, and the trading volume was 315 lots [6] - Urea 2511: The latest price was 1,573 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.26%. The open interest was 20,231 lots, a decrease of 780 lots, and the trading volume was 6,130 lots [6] - Urea 2601 M: The latest price was 1,597 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 1.36%. The open interest was 338,864 lots, an increase of 28,175 lots, and the trading volume was 161,077 lots [6] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of urea in major domestic regions remained generally stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,580 yuan/ton (basis - 17 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,510 yuan/ton (basis - 87 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1,500 yuan/ton (basis - 97 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,610 yuan/ton (basis 13 yuan/ton) [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industrial Information - Demand: Affected by continuous rainfall in many places, the demand for urea in the industrial and agricultural fields has weakened. Most enterprises' inventories are overstocked as product shipments and flows are not as expected [8][9] - Supply: The domestic urea supply pressure is large, and the problem of weak domestic demand is still prominent. Although the daily output level and operating rate have slightly declined recently, they are still at a relatively high level, with the daily output of the urea industry at 199,400 tons. It is expected that the inventory of upstream production enterprises will continue to accumulate, and the market pressure will be large in the near future [9] 3.4 Market Outlook - The short - term urea futures market may maintain a weak operation due to the current supply - demand imbalance and supply pressure in the urea market [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Industrial silicon [1] - Report Cycle: Daily report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The industry is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has significantly slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation, indicating that the fundamentals have turned loose. Considering the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertainty of the demand for polysilicon in the core consumption direction, there is no obvious unilateral driver in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon si2511 contract rose and then fell, closing with a negative line. The trading volume decreased significantly, with a full - day trading volume of 210,531 lots and an open interest of 176,563 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 407,790 lots, an increase of 8,057 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2511 increased by 2,165 lots [4]. 4.2 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In the southwest production area, as the wet season is coming to an end, the smelting electricity price is facing an increase, leading to higher production costs. In the north production area, the electricity price is relatively stable throughout the year due to the use of coal - fired power. After the anti - involution, the profit is acceptable. Against the background of the planned production cut in the southwest, large factories in Xinjiang may have the expectation of further increasing production, which makes the market worried that the supply is unlikely to decline significantly [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell today. The main 2511 contract formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly. Both the long and short sides continued to wait and see. From the daily chart, the futures price formed a doji pattern with long upper and lower shadows below the 50 - day moving average. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the future [7]. 4.3 Market Outlook - The industry is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but inventory depletion has slowed down, and there are signs of inventory accumulation. The fundamentals have become looser. Given the different supply changes in the two major production areas and the uncertain demand for polysilicon, there is no clear one - way driving force in the market, and the futures price may fluctuate around the cost line [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the sentiment in the chemical market was poor, and soda ash followed the sector with weak fluctuations. During the domestic long - holiday, soda ash production facilities had narrow adjustments, with individual companies having short - term shutdowns, resulting in a narrow decline in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, and overall purchasing enthusiasm was low, with limited fundamental drivers. Given the fundamental situation of oversupply, it is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the second - phase capacity release of Yuanxing and the restocking situation of downstream enterprises [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 9, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1256 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1268 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1237 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 1.73% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 756,000 lots, a decrease of 27,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,317,000 lots, an increase of 67,000 lots from the previous day [2] - **Variety Price**: The opening, highest, lowest, and closing prices of different soda ash futures contracts on October 9, 2025, are provided, including soda ash 2609, soda ash 2601 M, and soda ash 2605 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - On October 9, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market quotes are presented in a price summary table, but the specific prices in the table are not detailed in the text [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - Related**: On October 9, 2025, the spot price of 5.00mm large - size glass in North China was reported at 1230 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental - Related**: As of October 9, 2025, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 739,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,400 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 920,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,500 tons [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Due to the fundamental situation of oversupply, the short - term soda ash futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the second - phase capacity release of Yuanxing and the restocking situation of downstream enterprises [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soybean (Bean 1) [1] - Report date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Report cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoint - Currently, domestic soybean prices are generally stable with a slight decline, while imported soybean prices are stabilizing and rising. Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise crushing profits have stabilized and rebounded. In the futures market, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures showed a strong trend throughout the day. In the short term, in an atmosphere where the overall spot price of soybeans is rising steadily, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures may continue to show a strong oscillatory trend [14]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract (A2511) of DCE Bean 1 futures oscillated strongly throughout the day. The opening price was 3930 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3984 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3975 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.17% from the previous day. The trading volume was 105,525 lots, the open interest was 137,560 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 951 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The closing prices of contracts A2511, A2601, A2603, and A2605 were 3975 yuan/ton, 3973 yuan/ton, 3970 yuan/ton, and 4000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 46 yuan/ton (1.17%), 70 yuan/ton (1.79%), 67 yuan/ton (1.72%), and 65 yuan/ton (1.65%) respectively. The trading volumes were 105,525 lots, 56,116 lots, 5,614 lots, and 1,681 lots respectively, and the open interests were 137,560 lots, 136,282 lots, 34,333 lots, and 8,740 lots respectively. The daily increases in positions were 951 lots, 8816 lots, 168 lots, and 45 lots respectively [3]. 4.2 Spot Market - Today's Bean 1 basis was -15 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. The total number of registered Bean 1 warehouse receipts was 7,290 lots, which was the same as the previous trading day [5]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 3971 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous observation day. Recently, the spot price of domestic soybeans has been generally stable with a slight decline. The port soybean inventory was 6.6094 million tons, an increase of 1.01% from the previous observation day. Recently, with the decrease in imported arrivals, the current port soybean inventory has generally decreased [8][9]. - **Industry News**: According to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed a stable and rising trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4568.05 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 3975.71 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3792.05 yuan/ton. Recently, the decline in enterprise crushing profits has slowed down, and the crushing profits have rebounded [10]. 4.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, in an atmosphere where the overall spot price of soybeans is rising steadily, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures may continue to show a strong oscillatory trend [14].

1. Report Overview - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Written Date: October 9, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoint - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, caustic soda futures declined significantly due to the overall weakness of the chemical sector. During the holiday, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market decreased, and the trading volume fluctuated slightly. The market in other regions was also weak. Future market trends depend on the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of chlor-alkali plants [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market 4.1.1 Contract Market - On October 9, 2025, the main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, opened lower and continued to decline. The closing price was 2,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton or 2.58% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume increased by 117,000 lots to 291,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 18,857 lots to 103,000 lots [2] 4.1.2 Variety Price - Affected by the sluggish sentiment in the chemical market, all 12 caustic soda futures contracts declined. The near-month contract SH510 fell by more than 2.5%. The total open interest of the variety was 188,300 lots, an increase of 23,538 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, increased by 18,857 lots, and the capital inflow was 236 million yuan [4] 4.1.3 Related Market - The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options, with a significant increase in put option prices [6] - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong had minor adjustments of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas, while most areas remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in southwestern Shandong, central-eastern Shandong, and northern Shandong were 800 - 850 yuan/ton, 760 - 800 yuan/ton, and 780 - 850 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in central-eastern Shandong was 1,270 - 1,330 yuan/ton [7][8] 4.2 Influencing Factors 4.2.1 Industry News - On the first working day around the National Day, the price of liquid chlorine from Xinfa in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton [9] - In October, the purchase price of liquid caustic soda by alumina enterprises in Xiaoyi, Shanxi decreased by 200 yuan/ton [10] 4.2.2 Technical Analysis - The caustic soda futures closed with a long negative line today, and the price is approaching the previous low. The MACD indicator has further weakened [10]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on natural rubber futures, dated October 9, 2025, and the researcher is He Ning [1]. Market Overview and Quotes Review 1.1 Overall Market Performance - On October 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures market showed an upward trend. The price of the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed at 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton (1.55%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 169,800 lots and an open interest of 140,700 lots, a decrease of 378 lots from the previous day. The price of the main 20 - number rubber contract NR2511 closed at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton (1.84%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 69,600 lots and an open interest of 34,100 lots, a decrease of 52 lots from the previous day [2]. 1.2 Futures Quotes Data - The table provides detailed futures quotes data for natural rubber on October 9, 2025, including information on different delivery months such as 2510, 2511, 2601, etc., covering pre - settlement, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest changes [7]. 1.3 Spot Market Data - As of October 9, the domestic rubber spot prices showed increases. The RMB spot price of Thai mixed rubber was 14,820 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the near - port US dollar transaction price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,830 USD/ton, up 30 USD/ton. The RMB spot transaction price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR 3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of Thai standard rubber in the bonded area was 1,840 USD/ton, up 20 USD/ton. The post - market trading atmosphere was good, mainly for market exchanges [8][9]. Daily News and Industry Dynamics Analysis - According to Longzhong Information, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded area and general trade in Shandong Qingdao was about 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons (0.76%) from last week, showing a slight destocking. The rubber tapping in the Vietnamese production area was hindered by typhoons this week. Coupled with the active procurement of raw materials by processing plants for production and delivery, the raw material prices were driven up. The capacity utilization rate of sample all - steel tire factories last week was 66.36%, and that of semi - steel tire factories was about 72.74%, with an overall slight increase in capacity utilization. However, the order situation was not as good as the same period last year, with the finished product inventory of all - steel tires about 25 days and that of semi - steel tires about 40 days [10]. Conclusion and Outlook - The price of Thai cup lump raw materials increased compared with the previous day, while the glue price remained flat. After the holiday, both the commodity market and capital market indices were good, and the natural rubber futures price rose accordingly. Although the impact of rainfall in the production area eased slightly, the output was still lower than the same period of previous years, and the demand was relatively neutral. It is expected that the short - term natural rubber futures price may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro events on the overall sentiment of the commodity market and the impact of upstream production and mid - stream inventory on market sentiment and price trends [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by supply disturbances and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai nickel futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the weak demand side may limit the upward space [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - On October 9, 2025, the first trading day after the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the domestic base metals market witnessed an overall upward trend. The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel showed strong performance, rising steadily after the opening and closing at 124,480 yuan/ton with a large positive line on the daily chart [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - For the Shanghai nickel 2511 contract, the closing price was 12,448 points, with a rise of 2,900 points (2.39% increase), a trading volume of 13,086 lots, an amplitude of 1.31%, an open interest of 86,038 lots, and a daily increase in positions of 9,898 lots. - For the Shanghai nickel 2512 contract, the closing price was 12,466 points, with a rise of 2,940 points (2.75% increase), a trading volume of 56,031 lots, an amplitude of 2.42%, an open interest of 72,658 lots, and a daily increase in positions of 10,333 lots [5]. - **1.3 Spot Market Data** - On October 9, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 124,825 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of imported nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton. The average transaction prices all increased by 1,150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **Supply Side** - After the holiday, the market was significantly affected by supply - side uncertainties, such as the fluctuating export quota policy of Indonesian nickel mines and the tight supply of recycled nickel raw materials, which pushed up prices. However, the new refined nickel production capacities at home and abroad were steadily released, resulting in relatively large supply pressure. As of October 9, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 236,892 tons, an increase of 4,260 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel futures inventory (warehouse receipts) was 24,817 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous trading day, but the high - inventory state remained unchanged [6]. - **Demand Side** - Despite the price increase, the demand from downstream industries such as stainless steel and new energy had not significantly increased, and the overall market trading enthusiasm was relatively mild [6].