宏观方面，美国 4 月非农就业新增 17.7 万人（预期 13 万），ISM 服务业 PMI 升至 51.6（预期 50.3），显示经济韧性，市场对美联储 6 月降息预期降温。 撰写品种：沪铝 撰写时间 2025 年 05 月 06 日 星期二 回顾周期；日度 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铝日度报告 沪铝主力合约价格今日高开低走下行走势，成交量相比较上个交易日放量。al2506 持仓量 183,758 手，成交量 138,706 手，跌幅 1.00%。 图1：沪铝期货主力合约al2506 走势图 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的 信息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报 告内容及最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致 的损失承担任何责任。 现货方面，截至 5 月 6 日，国内电解铝三地库存 63.6 万吨，较节 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold entered an adjustment phase in late April after a strong rally, and this adjustment is a response to the continuous sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and have a significant range, and it may span the entire month of May. However, after the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [2][6]. - The Sino - US tariff war has entered a stalemate. Although there is a glimmer of hope for a resolution, it will be a long - term, complex process of re - balancing and re - dividing based on each side's strength. The outcome of the tariff negotiation will have a significant impact on the global financial market and gold prices [5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased after the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data [5][6]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - On April 2, after Trump announced a large - scale global tariff policy, gold initially fell with other risk assets, and the comex2506 contract once fell below $3000 per ounce. Then, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, it rebounded strongly and reached the key level of $3500 per ounce in just two weeks. Subsequently, it has been in an adjustment phase for two weeks. This adjustment is a response to the impact of market expectation changes and Trump's actions on the financial market since December 19, and it is expected to last for several weeks with a significant adjustment range [2]. b) Fundamental Analysis - During the Sino - US tariff war stalemate, the price movement of gold in different trading sessions has changed. In the early and middle of April when gold was rising rapidly, the Asian trading session was more likely to push up the price, while the European and American sessions might see a slight decline. During the adjustment period, the situation is reversed [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is evaluating high - level tariff negotiations with the US. China has set clear conditions for the negotiation, emphasizing that the US should show sincerity by correcting wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is a long - term and complex process, and it is unlikely to be resolved within a few weeks as the US hopes [4][5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts to bring manufacturing back to the US. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data on Friday, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased [5][6]. - Looking ahead to May, gold is in an adjustment phase after a rapid and sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and may cover the whole month of May. After the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the continuous gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [6]. c) Futures Monthly K - Line - The report provides the monthly K - line charts of Shanghai Futures Gold weighted price and comex Gold weighted price, but no further analysis is given [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil still follows the fluctuations of crude oil. Due to sanctions on Russia and Iran, heavy - oil resources are in short supply, and the recovery of power - generation demand in South Asia during summer supports the crack spread. Given the strength of the high - sulfur market structure in Singapore and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic fuel oil price may have some room for repair, but short - term crude oil fluctuations need to be closely monitored. If the crude oil rebound ends, the fuel oil may continue to weaken [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Situation 3.1.1 Crude Oil Market Latest Dynamics - Supply side: OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May, which theoretically exerts downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, the market believes this increase is mainly to improve member compliance with the production - cut agreement, so the impact is limited. An explosion in Iran disrupted port operations and reduced the shipping efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz by 25%, causing international oil prices to rise by 3.2% - 3.8% in a single day, supporting fuel oil prices [3] - Demand side: The IEA's report shows that in 2024, the global oil demand growth was only 0.8%, and its share in global energy demand fell below 30% for the first time, with a significant slowdown in growth. Recently, as the economy recovers, the energy demand of industries such as logistics has increased, supporting crude oil prices [3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil Market Performance - **Spot price**: On April 28, the benchmark price of fuel oil was 5,475 yuan per ton, down from last week. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST was 452 US dollars per ton, a 10.32% decrease from the beginning of the month [4] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: In Singapore, fuel oil inventory rose by 1.239 million barrels to 24.126 million barrels, an 18 - week high, with a 5.4% month - on - month increase. The average on - land fuel oil inventory in April was about 22.55 million barrels per week, higher than the average of 18.68 million barrels per week in March. In the ARA region, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.4% to 1.16 million tons [5][6] 3.2 Disk Situation - The fuel oil showed a volatile trend this week. The main contract closed at 2,991 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The highest price was 3,008 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 2,967 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 13,077 lots from April 21 to April 25 [10]

撰写品种：沥青 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 沥青周度报告 一、本周沥青期货行情回顾 本周沥青期货主力合约 BU2506 呈现先扬后抑的态势。主力合约开盘价为 3369 元 / 吨，周内最高价触及 3430 元 / 吨，最低价下探至 3345 元 / 吨，最终收盘价 为 3401 元 / 吨，较上周收盘价下跌 5 元，跌幅 0.15%。结算价为 3385 元 / 吨。 成交量方面：本周累计成交约 85 万手，日均成交 17 万手，较上周活跃度有所下 降。持仓量环比上周减持 19448 手，收于 14.36 万手，显示市场资金参与度有所降低。 供给端：国内 54 家主要沥青企业厂库库存为 89.7 万吨，环比下降 3.6 万吨。 不过，国内 104 家贸易商库存为 194.6 万吨，虽环比仅下降 0.2 万吨，但整体库存 水平仍处于高位。 需求端：尽管天气持续转暖，理论上有利于道路施工等下游需求的释放，但实际情 况并不乐观。重交沥青开工率仅为 28.5%，虽较上周略有上升，但仍处于历史同期较低 水平。改性沥青产能利用率为 7.2%，环比增加 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The steel market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with minor fluctuations. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged, with rebar production slightly decreasing and coil production increasing. Rebar continued to reduce inventory, and the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils were also good. However, the impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and there is still an expectation of weakening demand in the market. Meanwhile, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly after reaching its peak, and there is a strong expectation that the demand for building materials has reached its peak. Currently, the supply and demand of steel are in a good state, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material prices and demand expectations [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The steel market rose first and then fell last week, with the iron ore on the raw material side remaining strong. The increase in hot metal data last week supported the ore price. Due to the increase in tariffs, the expectation of weakening steel exports has persisted, causing minor fluctuations in the black market prices [3]. - In terms of industries, rebar production decreased slightly, hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total steel inventory continued to decline. The rebar 2510 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase; the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract rose by 23 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase; and the iron ore 2509 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase [3]. - The peak rebar demand declined last week, the steel mill capacity slightly decreased, and the total rebar inventory continued to decline. The fundamentals of rebar supply and demand were good, and the inventory reduction cycle continued. However, the peak annual rebar demand may have occurred and may gradually decline later. The capacity of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, demand slightly increased, and the total inventory decreased. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coils should pay attention to the impact of trade policy changes on exports [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, steel supply continued to grow last week. Rebar production decreased slightly, while coil production increased. The capacity of major steel coil products has been continuously recovering recently, while the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the apparent demand for coils has slightly increased. The total steel inventory decreased [5]. - The sales of building material rebar decreased significantly compared to the previous week, increasing the probability that the annual rebar demand has reached its peak. The weekly production of building material rebar was 2.2911 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.175 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products was 8.7584 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 15.3424 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 504,100 tons [5]. - The demand for rebar decreased by 138,800 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 308,300 tons, and the steel mill's rebar capacity slightly decreased, maintaining inventory reduction. The hot-rolled coil capacity increased by 31,000 tons, the apparent demand slightly increased by 2,000 tons, and the coil inventory decreased by 68,600 tons [5]. Market Outlook - The steel market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material price costs and demand expectations. Although the supply and demand of steel are currently in a good state, there is an expectation of weakening demand. The impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and the demand for rebar may have reached its peak [6]. - The hot metal production reached a new high last week, and the supply and demand of raw material ore were balanced, with no downward pressure on prices. The demand for raw material ore remains relatively stable [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market recently shows a trend of growth in both supply and demand. Supply is expected to increase as most plants resume production before the holiday, while demand has been delayed by weather but is likely to improve. The market is in a traditional peak season, and enterprise inventories are expected to gradually decline. There may be positive arbitrage opportunities between the September and January contracts. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: The urea futures market declined this week, with the main contract UR2509 dropping 0.9% to close at 1,757 yuan/ton. Trading volume was high, with the main contract accounting for 89.09% of the total 1.321 million lots. Technically, the price oscillated around the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD indicated a sideways pattern. The basis of the UR2509 contract was stable, with the Shandong basis at 55 yuan/ton and the Henan basis at 49 yuan/ton. [3] - **Supply**: The domestic urea operating rate was 83.61%, down 2.13 percentage points from last week due to some temporary plant shutdowns. It is expected to rise next week. Enterprise profits declined due to delayed demand but may recover as the operating rate increases. [3] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories increased by 158,800 tons to 1.065 million tons, and advance orders decreased by 0.17 days to 5.12 days. Port inventories rose slightly to 117,000 tons. Delayed demand led to the inventory increase, but it is expected to decline as demand recovers. [4] - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate dropped 4.18 percentage points to 43.54%, with weak market sentiment and high finished - product inventories. The melamine operating rate increased, and its profit improved due to lower raw material prices. Near the May Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The industry is in a peak season, and export policies remain tight. [5] 3.2 Conclusion - The urea market has growth in both supply and demand. Supply will increase as plants resume, and demand, though delayed, is expected to improve. The traditional peak season may help reduce inventories. There may be positive arbitrage opportunities between the September and January contracts. Attention should be paid to the overall commodity market sentiment and macro - economic changes. [6]

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 28, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of caustic soda futures changed to the 2509 contract, with a slight decline in the price center. As the May Day holiday approaches, the average capacity utilization and inventory of national caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above continue to decline. The overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The market is expected to remain weak. [3] Summary by Section I. Market Review - **Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,439 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.93%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly output of caustic soda decreased by 11,500 tons to 820,200 tons, and the weekly output of flake caustic soda decreased by 300 tons to 100,600 tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 60,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will decrease next week. [4] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month. [4] - **Cost**: The price of raw salt remained stable. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 235 yuan/ton, the price of well - mine salt in Central China was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest was 240 yuan/ton. [5] - **Profit**: The weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased this week, and the price of liquid chlorine remained weakly stable, resulting in an increase in the overall chlor - alkali profit. [5] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 79.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%. The spot price of alumina remained stable this week, with a slight increase in some areas. As of April 25, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,890 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 77.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. [5] - **Export**: The export quotation of liquid caustic soda decreased. This week, the export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China was FOB 400 - 410 US dollars/ton. [5] II. Illustrations - The report includes six figures, namely "Domestic Caustic Soda Operating Rate", "Domestic Sample Enterprises' Liquid Caustic Soda In - plant Inventory", "Domestic Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Capacity Utilization Rate", "Caustic Soda Main Contract Basis", "Spot Liquid Caustic Soda Price", and "Caustic Soda Main Continuous K - line (Daily)". [7][10][11][14][15]

撰写品种：PTA 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 PTA 周度报告 一、博弈情绪消退，市场波动下降 海外关税情绪影响逐渐消退，博弈方向由情绪博弈转向未来基本面预期博弈，市场 对未来经济的担忧驱动美元指数快速下跌，美元指数重新选择震荡中枢。市场情绪消退 后，原油成交量有所收缩，行情波动率下降，暂时维持反弹震荡格局。TA 市场行情主 要受原油价格波动影响，原油价格企稳对 TA 支撑亦相对明显，市场悲观情绪得到一定 改善。当前海外关税仍然没有"尘埃落定"，市场衰退预期明显加强，潜在风险仍然存 在，需要更加注重风险防控并做好套期保值准备。 图1：原油主力合约日K 走势 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 关税目前对供需方面当前影响不大，TA 更多是受到市场情绪影响，市场回归交易 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 供需逻辑后，需求旺季周期现货偏强，多次期货价格调整过程中，现货仍然维持相对 强硬状态。现货偏强是 TA 期货良好的支撑，但预期偏弱仍然表示市场存在调整风 险。市 ...

撰写品种：玻璃 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 玻璃周度报告 一、行情回顾 上周玻璃期货市场呈现震荡偏弱走势，玻璃主力合约 FG2509 较上一周下降了 1 元 /吨，收盘价为 1121 元/吨；现货方面报价为 1245 元/吨，玻璃期现结构为期货贴水现 货。分合约看，近月合约 FG2505 周内下跌 1.38%，远月合约 FG2509 持仓量环比减少 10.7 万手，成交量达 652 万手。 二、供需关系方面 从供应端来看：全国浮法玻璃日产量为 15.78 万吨，环比下降 0.44%，同比减少 9.32%，产能利用率维持 79%左右。冷修产线增加，但沙河地区新点火一条产线，整体 产能波动较小。不同燃料类型利润分化明显，天然气和石油焦亏损，煤制气微利。低利 润下，企业冷修意愿增强，但复产计划延缓。 从需求端来看："金三银四"传统旺季进入尾声，南方梅雨季临近，沙河产销率均 值降至 70%。中下游以刚需采购为主，深加工订单天数 9.3 天，同比下降 17.7%。第一 季度房屋竣工面积同比下降 14.3%，新开工面积下降 24.4%，玻璃需求缺乏长 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current core contradiction in the copper market lies in the game between "strong fundamental support" and "insufficient macro - driving force". In the short term, copper prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall under fundamental support, yet lack the power for continuous breakthrough. It is expected that the CU2506 contract will maintain range - bound trading [3] Group 3 Price - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper 2506 contract on April 21, 2025, was 77,290 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan or 1.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 122,500 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,109 lots to 169,600 lots [3] Macro - The risk of economic stagflation in the US is rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is constrained by high inflation. Short - term liquidity easing is difficult to be the driving force for copper price increases [3] Inventory - On April 21, the SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 52,791 tons, a decrease of 12,306 tons from the previous day, indicating an accelerated destocking of refined copper in China [3] Refined - scrap price spread - On April 21, the Mysteel refined - scrap price spread was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan from the previous day, but still significantly lower than the reasonable spread. The low refined - scrap price spread continuously suppresses the substitution demand for scrap copper, supports refined copper consumption, and accelerates inventory destocking [3]