宏观方面，中美关税政策博弈进入关键阶段，美国对华汽车零部件关税豁免延期决 议悬而未决，市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧抑制风险偏好。国务院总理李强同日强调"以 更大力度扩大内需"，政策托底预期与外部冲击形成多空拉锯。 撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/4/16 回顾周期：当日 研究员:曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 库存方面，国内锌锭社会库存 8.89 万吨（截至 4 月 14 日），LME 库存 11.20 万吨 （截至 4 月 15 日），低库存支撑效应边际减弱。 沪锌日度报告 期货盘面，沪锌主力合约收盘价报 21,920 元/吨，单日跌幅 1.95%，成交额 225.10 亿元，成交量 20.33 万手，持仓量 12.66 万手，资金流出迹象明显。 总体来看，基本面变化不大，短期主要受关税政策影响，锌价或延续弱势震荡格局。 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Stainless Steel Daily Report - Writing Time: April 18, 2025 - Review Cycle: Daily - Researcher: Dai Xiaohong - Consulting License Number: Z0000213 [1] 1. Market Performance - As of the close on April 17, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract SS2506 was 12,845, reaching a high of 12,915 and a low of 12,810, closing at 12,845, up 25 points or 0.20% for the day, with an amplitude of 1.96%. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 16,448 lots to 136,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,069 lots to 133,000 lots. The capital outflow was 7.27 million yuan, and the settled capital was 1.196 billion yuan. - The stainless steel warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 182,752 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day. - Among the top 20 futures dealers in terms of open - interest ranking, the total long positions were 97,549 lots, an increase of 1,996 lots from the previous day, and the total short positions were 100,538 lots, an increase of 1,906 lots from the previous day. - The basis was 468 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 2. Core Views - The continuous decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and the fall of high - carbon ferrochrome prices have weakened the cost support for stainless steel. - The Indonesian PNBP policy is set to be officially implemented on April 26, which may boost the cost support for stainless steel. However, the market has already anticipated and priced in this policy, so its short - term direct impact on prices is limited. - In April, stainless steel supply remains at a high level, while demand is in the off - season. Downstream buyers maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, with overall inquiries and transactions being average. Social inventory is digested slowly, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, putting pressure on prices. - Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies of various countries and the implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy. If the nickel - iron price rebounds after the policy is implemented, it will strongly support the stainless steel price [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]

撰写品种：黄金 撰写时间：2025/04/16 回顾周期：当日 研究员： 王建超 咨询证号（Z0015736） 黄金日报：横盘结束强势上涨，美国再次发力关税战 一：盘面情况 周二 comex 黄金期货 06 主力合约高位强势横盘，开盘价 3226.1 美元/盎司，最高 3250.9 美元/盎司，最低 3225.5 美元/盎司，收盘 3246.8 美元/盎司，全天上涨 20.1 美元/盎司，涨幅 0.62%。 沪金期货 2506 主力合约周三大幅上涨，开盘价 763.94 元/克，最 高价 782.38 元/克，最低价 762.3 元/克，最终收盘在 781.6 元/克，全 天上涨 17.16 元/克，涨幅 2.24%。特朗普重新推动贸易战，引发风险资 产下跌，推动避险资产黄金大涨。 二： 基本面 周二美国财长曾拟定一个关税"终局方案"，暂停对其他国家征收关 税，把精力放在对付中国身上，建立一个以美方为主的阵营，然后来和中 国接触。这实际上升级了中美之间的贸易战。 特朗普在与中国进行关税战的谈判诉求方面有最新进展：他想和中 国谈关税，并自行创设条件呼吁中国进行谈判。根据彭博社的报告，针对 美国希望中国能参与进来 ...

撰写品种：沪锌 撰写时间：2025/4/15 回顾周期：当日 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪锌日度报告 价格方面，当日沪锌各合约普遍承压，近月合约 ZN2504 收于 22,800 元/吨，跌 幅 0.48%，ZN2505 合约跌 0.73%至 22,545 元/吨，远月合约 ZN2603 则下跌 0.41% 至 21,870 元/吨。 供应端，锌矿加工费（TC）持续上涨，进口矿到港量增加推动港口库存维持在 30 万吨以上。国内锌矿复产进度符合预期，3 月精锌产量环比增长 13.7%，4 月预计维持 高位。冶炼端利润继续修复，前期检修企业已基本复产，供应宽松预期强化。 需求端，初级加工行业订单稳健，但终端采购偏谨慎。 库存方面，截至 4 月 15 日，SHFE 锌注册仓单 7,658 吨，较前一周下降 6.84%。 总体来看，短期沪锌或维持区间震荡为主，关注美国对华关税政策落地时点及国内 稳增长政策力度。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 图1：沪锌期货加权价格走势 图片来源：文华财经行情软件 风险揭示及 ...

撰写品种：沪铅 撰写时间 2025/04/14 回顾周期：周度 研究分析师：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铅周度报告 一．宏观面 1. 海外方面：美联储主席鲍威尔发言关税对经济影响远超预期，可能使得通胀上升和增 长减缓，2025 年降息两次预期得到维持。3 月会议纪要和多位美联储官员讲话，表示对于经 济前景怀有谨慎的态度。其次 3 月全球制造业 PMI 下降到 49.6%，表示着制造业复苏仍然乏 力。 三．技术面 小时线来看，期价阶梯抬升。日线来看，期价出现探底回升，今天出现十字阴 线，但低高位出现抬升。周线回落到前期低点得到支撑。月线仍处于 60 均线上方， 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉：4006821188 向上趋势没变。 四．后市展望 2. 国内方面：1-2 月规模以上工业增加值同比上升。中央汇金继续增持 ETF，稳定市场信 心。 二．基本面 1. 供应端：电解铅炼厂货源紧张，部分挺价意愿强烈；再生铅市场复产不及预期，废电 瓶回收量减少，再生铅增量受限。河南，安徽等炼厂原料货量紧张，部分炼厂受环保和运输受 限制，供应进一步减 ...

撰写品种：不锈钢 撰写时间：2025-4-15 回顾周期：日度 研究所：戴小红 咨询证号（Z0000213） 不锈钢日度报告 品种名称：不锈钢 截止 4 月 14 日收市，不锈钢主力合约 SS2506 合约开盘价 12825，最高 12860 点， 最低 12735 点，收于 12805 点、当日上涨 40 点，涨幅 0.31%，振幅 0.98%。主力合约 成交增加 10835 手至 13.3 万手，持仓量增加 8119 手至 12.7 万手，资金流入 7611 万， 沉淀资金 11.39 亿。上期所不锈钢仓单录得 191564 吨，较上一日减少 4427 吨。持仓 排名前 20 席期商持仓，多单总计 29030 手，较上日减少 3978 手，空单总计 33236 手， 较上日减少 3404 手。基差为 538 元/吨，较上日走缩 127 元/吨。 一、 影响行情的主要因素 不锈钢期货高开，对现货市场报价有一定的带动作用，不过由于市场走向仍不清 晰，整体价格以持稳为主。期货盘面的走强在一定程度上带动了现货市场，促使部分市 场报价上调，但市场中存在部分低价货源，且观望情绪浓厚，限制了价格上涨幅度。镍 矿方面，印 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 14, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core View - Affected by the overall macro - sentiment, caustic soda futures opened lower last week. After a small rebound, it continued to weaken, hitting a new low for the year. With high inventory and high production, the future trend is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement progress and macro - policy changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - **Price**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the macro - environment, caustic soda futures opened lower. The SH main contract continued to find the bottom, hitting an annual low of 2,267 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of April 11, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 5.60% [4]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.32 million tons to 83.26 million tons, and flake caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.88 million tons to 10.61 million tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.83 million tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will increase next week [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 0.65% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 27.82%, an increase of 0.34% month - on - month [5]. - **Cost**: The price of raw salt was lowered again. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt in Central China remained at 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest remained at 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit**: The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.61% compared with the previous week. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was continuously lowered this week, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in a decline in the overall chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 78.88%, a decrease of 4.49% month - on - month. The price of alumina continued to decline this week. As of April 11, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,870 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 83.61%, a decrease of 4.46% month - on - month; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.35%, a decrease of 4.13% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the quotation of liquid caustic soda was stable with minor fluctuations. The export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China this week was FOB 440 - 450 US dollars/ton [5]. II. Illustrations - The report provides six illustrations including domestic caustic soda operating rate, domestic sample enterprise liquid caustic soda factory inventory, domestic viscose staple fiber industry capacity utilization rate, caustic soda main contract basis, spot liquid caustic soda price, and caustic soda main continuous K - line (daily line) [6][9][13]

撰写品种：股指期货 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 11 日 回顾周期：日度 分析师： 武吟秋 咨询证号：Z0018989 股指期货日报：特朗普关税政策似儿戏，美资产遭抛 售 整理来看，特朗普这种近乎儿戏的关税政策，使得国外对于特朗普失去了信任， 美国的相关资产被重新抛售，美国的股债汇被三杀！而在目前的贸易摩擦态势逐渐明 朗以后，中国在面对关税方面的问题，已经相对来说比较游刃有余，国内也将回到解 决本土自身的基本面的问题上来，比如如何拓展新的出口渠道，如果出口转内销等问 题都需要一些实质性的政策或者措施来推动。因此，短期内股指行情会出现震荡行情 的走势，短期如遇到回踩不必过于担忧和惊慌。 三： 股指期货日 K 线图 一：盘面情况： （20250410）昨天，上个交易日，A 股继续反弹。四大指数高开后震荡，上证 50 收涨 0.60%，沪深 300 收涨 1.31%，中证 500 收涨 1.92%，中证 1000 收涨 2.34%。市场全天呈现震荡走势。市场延续普涨格局，市场热点快速轮动。板块上 看，一级行业全线上涨，商贸零售、纺织服饰、有色、汽车、传媒涨幅居前，煤炭、 公共事业涨幅最后。全市场 4948 只个 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 10, affected by the US suspending the additional tariffs on some countries for 90 days, crude oil and other oils rose sharply. The BMD Malaysian palm oil rose from a low level, and the domestic palm oil futures and spot prices also increased. The domestic palm oil market is currently mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the short - term Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, with intense long - short game on the futures market [3][5][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On April 10, the BMD Malaysian palm oil closed at 4201 ringgit/ton, up 1.33% from the settlement price; the domestic continuous palm oil P2505 closed at 8754 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from the settlement price, with trading volume increasing to 641,100 lots and positions decreasing to 201,400 lots. The P2509 contract closed at 8186 yuan/ton, up 2.12% from the settlement price, with trading volume of 420,400 lots and positions increasing to 261,100 lots. The 05 - 09 spread narrowed to 568 yuan/ton, the soybean - palm main 05 - period spread was - 1080 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm main 05 - period spread was 511 yuan/ton [3] - On April 10, the spot price of palm oil at each port was 9200 - 9350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the import profit was - 405.3 yuan/ton, the basis dropped to - 100.67 yuan/ton; the soybean - palm spot spread was - 1201.65 yuan/ton [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis - According to MPOB data, the production of Malaysian palm oil in March was 1.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; the end - of - month inventory was 1.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, the first increase in the past six months. High - frequency shipping data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of April increased by 29.29% - 52.79% month - on - month. Indonesia lowered tariffs, and the US tariff policy implementation was postponed, giving Malaysian palm oil an obvious export advantage [10] - The domestic palm oil has rigid - demand transactions, the inventory is still at a low level, the import profit is continuously low, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a need for replenishment in the later stage [10] 3. Future Outlook - Currently, domestic palm oil is mainly for rigid - demand procurement. In the short term, the Sino - US tariff conflict has a great impact on the market, and the long - short game on the futures market is intense. The price of the P2505 contract on the futures market has rebounded from the bottom, and the closing price is temporarily blocked by the upper 5 - day moving average. In the short term, under the stimulus of news, the price of the P2505 contract of palm oil futures may fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [12]