1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High - level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High - level oscillation [3] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidation [4] - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Palm oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Soybean meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Weak - side oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [6] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [8] - MEG: Wait - and - see [8] - PR: Wait - and - see [8] - PF: Wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the black industry, short - term steel industry growth expectations still exist. There are opportunities in the contract operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand. In the financial market, the market has rebounded continuously, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly and long positions in Treasury bonds lightly. For precious metals, the logic driving the gold price increase has not completely reversed, and short - term factors may cause fluctuations. In the agricultural and light industrial products markets, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. Supply increases slightly, and steel mills' production drive is strong. There are production - reduction expectations in the later period. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine over - production inspections tighten supply, and transportation is disrupted. The market is in a slightly tight supply - demand state, and prices are likely to rise [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Tangshan's independent steel - rolling enterprises' production restrictions are beneficial to finished products. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Glass**: The market's speculation sentiment cools down, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly. It is in the adjustment stage [2]. - **Soda ash**: In the adjustment stage, with the market's trading logic returning to the fundamentals [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and risk appetite has improved. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates have rebounded, and Treasury bond prices have fallen. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing. The logic of the gold price increase has not reversed. Short - term factors such as employment data and tariff policies affect the price. Pay attention to the latest CPI data [3][4]. Agricultural and Light Industrial Products Markets - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [4]. - **Logs**: Demand has increased slightly, supply pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Oils and fats**: Supported by raw material costs, external markets, and demand recovery, they are expected to oscillate upward. Pay attention to weather and production - sales conditions [4]. - **Meal products**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and prices are under pressure. In the long term, there are some supporting factors. They are expected to oscillate strongly [6]. - **Live pigs**: Supply is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to decline slightly [6]. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap has narrowed. With the improvement of supply - side factors, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [6][8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are in a state of wait - and - see, with their prices mainly affected by cost and supply - demand changes [8][12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties have increased the difficulty of market gaming. Spot freight rates are continuously declining, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The main contracts are fluctuating weakly, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [2][5] 3. Detailed Summaries Freight Rate Index - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period, and the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1,130.12 points, down 12.0% from the previous period. [3] - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1,087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period, and the NCFI for the European route was 1,372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period. [3] - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1,550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period, the SCFI European line price was 2,051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period, and the SCFI US - West route was 2,021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period. [3] - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period, the CCFI for the European route was 1,789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period, and the CCFI for the US - West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period. [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. [3] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. [4] - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected value of 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected value of 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, reaching a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. [4] Policy and Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits re - export trade. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market. [5] Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions below 1,300 in the 2510 contract (it has made a profit of over 300 points), and partially stop profit. For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to lightly test short positions and set a stop - profit. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. [5] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or lightly try. [5] - **Long - term Strategy**: It is advised to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation. [5] Market Data of Main Contracts On August 7, the main contract 2510 closed at 1,420.4, down 0.98%, with a trading volume of 261,000 lots and an open interest of 536,000 lots, a decrease of 765 lots from the previous day. [5] Contract Adjustment Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. [5] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots. [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 8, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container shipping daily report - Research group: Shipping research group Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and pessimistic sentiment is intensifying. The main contract is fluctuating weakly, with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set [2] - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5] Group 4: Freight Rate Index August 4 - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes is 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period [3] - SCFIS for US - West routes is 1130.12 points, down 12.0% from the previous period [3] August 1 - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) is 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period [3] - NCFI (European routes) is 1372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period [3] - NCFI (US - West routes) is 1114.45 points, down 0.54% from the previous period [3] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price is 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period [3] - SCFI European line price is 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period [3] - SCFI US - West routes is 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period [3] - China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) is 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [3] - CCFI (European routes) is 1789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period [3] - CCFI (US - West routes) is 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period [3] Group 5: PMI Data Eurozone (July) - Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5 [3] - Services PMI preliminary value is 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5 [3] - Composite PMI preliminary value is 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6 [3] - SENTIX investor confidence index jumps to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] China (July) - Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level has declined [4] US (July) - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.5, expected 52.7, and the previous value was 52.9 [4] - S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value is 55.2, expected 53, and the previous value was 52.9 [4] - Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 54.6, a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8, and the previous value was 52.9 [4] Group 6: Market News and Strategy Market News - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1, and the spot market price range is set, with some small price increases to test the market [5] - On August 6 (local time), a Palestinian - occupied territory humanitarian aid team composed of the United Nations and non - government organizations called on Israel to revoke the requirement for non - government organizations to submit sensitive personal information of Palestinian employees [6] - On August 6, US President Trump said that the US will impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and no fees will be charged if manufactured in the US [6] Short - term Strategy - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already out of a profit space of more than 300). For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to lightly test short positions and set a stop - profit [5] Arbitrage Strategy - Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the structure is mainly in a positive spread. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [5] Long - term Strategy - It is advised to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the follow - up situation [5] Group 7: Contract Information - On August 7, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.4, with a decline of 0.98%, a trading volume of 2.61 million lots, and an open interest of 5.36 million lots, a decrease of 765 lots from the previous day [5] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rolled steel: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3][6] - Silver: High-level oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [4][6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [4][7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8][10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Viewpoints - In the black industry, short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. There are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - In the financial industry, the market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The government bond market has declined, and long positions in government bonds should also be held lightly [3] - In the precious metals industry, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. Gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - In the light industry and agricultural products industries, the supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate. The fundamentals of logs are favorable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range. The supply of livestock products is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures, with prices expected to fall [4][6][7] - In the soft commodities and polyester industries, the supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand shows a differentiated trend. The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand, and the market is in a wait-and-see state [8][10] Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. The total global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased significantly. Iron ore fundamentals are currently acceptable, but there are risks of production cuts and restrictions in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine overproduction inspections have tightened the supply of coking coal, and transportation disruptions have affected the arrival of coke at steel mills. The black futures market is oscillating strongly, and the coke spot market is slightly short of supply. Coke prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [2] - **Rolled steel**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. In the off-season, steel demand has decreased, and the overall demand has a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Steel market supply and demand pressure may increase [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. Glass production capacity is stable, and downstream inventory has room to replenish, but demand has not recovered. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded continuously, and risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **Government bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the government bond market has declined. Long positions in government bonds should be held lightly [3] Precious Metals Industry - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and central bank gold purchases are the key. The currency, financial, and risk-hedging attributes of gold all support its price. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [3][6] - **Silver**: The short-term employment data in the US is weak, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, boosting the price of silver. Silver is also expected to maintain high-level oscillation [6] Light Industry and Agricultural Products Industries - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off-season. The supply and demand of pulp are both weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [6] - **Logs**: The demand for logs has increased slightly, and the supply center has shifted downward. The supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. Log prices are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - **Oils and fats**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The import volume of soybeans in China is high, and the inventory of oils and fats is at a high level. The demand is warming up. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [4][6] - **Livestock products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. High temperatures restrict consumption, and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises is decreasing. Pig prices are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industries - **Natural rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and raw material prices have risen. The demand for tires shows a differentiated trend, and inventory has decreased. Natural rubber prices are expected to remain firm [8] - **Polyester products**: The prices of polyester products are mainly affected by cost and demand. The market is in a wait-and-see state, with prices mainly fluctuating with cost [8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates. The market has fluctuated significantly recently, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Indexes and Economic Data - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; NCFI (European route) was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; NCFI (US West route) was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI published price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; SCFI European route price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; SCFI US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; CCFI (European route) was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [3]. - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a 25% small price increase to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions below 1300 in the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and profit - taking is advised. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Information - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group 1. Overall Market Situation - The bulk market is generally warm, but liner companies slightly lowered freight rates. The futures market fluctuated significantly, with prices rising and then falling. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%, and for the US - West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [3]. 2. Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the services PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The July SENTIX investor confidence index reached 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [3]. - In the US, the July Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the services PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [4]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. 3. Trade Policy and Geopolitical Situation - Trump's administration continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which affected transit trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a 25% small - scale price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties make market trading difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 4. Futures Market Analysis 4.1 Short - term Strategy - The short - term futures market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits. For the EC2512 contract, light - short positions were recommended and profit - taking is advised. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and stop - losses should be set [5]. 4.2 Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international instability, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light - position attempts [5]. 4.3 Long - term Strategy - For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. 4.4 Market Data - On August 6, the main contract 2510 closed at 1420.1, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 48,600 lots and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 2253 lots from the previous day [5]. 5. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - High-level oscillation; Coal and Coke - Oscillation with an upward bias; Rebar - High-level oscillation; Glass - Adjustment; Soda Ash - Adjustment [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - Rebound; CSI 300 - Oscillation; CSI 500 - Oscillation; CSI 1000 - Upward movement; 2-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5-year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10-year Treasury Bond - Upward movement; Gold - High-level oscillation; Silver - High-level oscillation [2][3] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Weak operation; Logs - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Oscillation with an upward bias; Meal - Oscillation; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a downward bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Watch; PTA - Watch; MEG - Watch; PR - Watch; PF - Watch [10][11] 2. Core Views - The short - term manufacturing recovery in the iron ore market has been interrupted, and the demand may be suppressed during the environmental protection production restrictions in the north. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - The coal and coke market has large price fluctuations. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand dynamics [2] - The trading logic of the steel and glass markets has returned to fundamentals. The overall demand is weak, and the inventory may accumulate. The short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly. The bond market has fluctuations, and the long positions in national debt should also be held lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, inflation data, and trade policies. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand pattern and is expected to have a weak price trend. The log market has a good fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - The edible oil market has different supply - demand situations. The inventory of some oils may change, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The meal market is under pressure from supply and weak demand, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - The live pig market has a downward trend in the average trading weight, and the supply is increasing while the consumption is restricted. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] - The natural rubber market has a tight supply due to weather and geopolitical factors, and the price is expected to remain strong. The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, and different products have different trends, mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted. The northern region will implement environmental protection production restrictions during the September 3rd parade, which may suppress demand. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are currently okay, but there are risks of production reduction and restriction in the future. One can try to go long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - **Coal and Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the quota for coking coal due to the large price increase. The supply of coking coal recovers slowly, and the five - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The profit of steel mills is high, and the demand for coke is strong. Attention should be paid to the supply dynamics and policy matching [2] - **Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The demand for building materials has declined in the off - season, and the total demand is weak. The inventory may accumulate, but the short - term steel products are supported by policies [2] - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the trading logic has returned to fundamentals. The glass production line is stable, the inventory of downstream players is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long - term demand is difficult to pick up significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The stock index market has rebounded, and the risk preference has recovered. The central bank's monetary policy is "moderately loose", and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3] - **National Debt**: The yield of the 10 - year national debt has declined, and the market interest rate has rebounded. The national debt trend has dropped, and it is recommended to hold long positions in national debt lightly [3] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold pricing mechanism is changing. It is affected by central bank gold purchases, inflation, trade policies, and employment data. The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and the price of gold and silver is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is mainly stable. The cost price of pulp has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] - **Logs**: The demand has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [5][6] - **Edible Oils**: The production of palm oil may slow down, and the inventory may accumulate. The domestic soybean import volume is high, and the inventory of some oils may change. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [5][6] - **Meal**: The global supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the domestic supply pressure is significant. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price and the slaughterhouse's operating rate are expected to decline [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand of the tire industry is differentiated. The inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [10] - **Polyester Products**: The PX and PTA markets are affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships. The MEG market has supply pressure, and the PR and PF markets are affected by demand and oil prices. They are mainly in a wait - and - see state [10][11]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market has high trading risks and large fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Short - term rebounds are possible, and long - term positions should be taken profit when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize before making further decisions [2][5]. Detailed Summaries Market Price Index - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period, and 1130.12 points for the US West route, down 12.0% [3]. - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period, 1372.67 points for the European route, down 3.53%, and 1114.45 points for the US West route, down 0.54% [3]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period, the European line price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%, and the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% [3]. - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period, 1789.50 points for the European route, up 0.1%, and 876.57 points for the US West route, down 0.5% [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53. The composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Geopolitical Factors - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced price increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market [5]. - On August 5, the Houthi armed forces attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport [5]. - Germany's Deputy Prime Minister called on the EU to take a tougher stance in trade negotiations with the US [6]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: For risk - takers, those who have taken long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 can take partial profits, and those who have short positions in the EC2512 contract can take profits. Set stop - losses and avoid holding losing positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Due to international instability, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take light positions [5]. - Long - term: Take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On August 5, the main contract 2510 closed at 1413.0, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 3.06 million lots and an open interest of 5.21 million lots, an increase of 1055 lots from the previous day [5]. Contract Adjustments - For contracts from 2508 to 2606, the daily limit is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatility [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High-level volatility [2] - Glass: High-level volatility [2] - Soda ash: High-level volatility [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [8] - Live pigs: Volatility with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Volatility [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Wait-and-see [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the iron ore market is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after the short-term emotional release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2]. - The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. - It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. - It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. - It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. - The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market [10]. - The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume has declined, while the arrival volume has increased significantly. The iron ore fundamentals are still acceptable in the short term, but there is a risk of a phased correction. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - **Glass**: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. Pulp and Logs - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. Edible Oils and Oilseeds - **Edible Oils**: It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Oilseeds and Meals**: It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. Petrochemicals - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market. The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has slightly declined, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market is fluctuating weakly with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and take partial profits when a profit margin of over 300 is achieved. For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to go short lightly and take profits. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [4]. - For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% [2]. - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; for the US - West route, it was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [2]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; for the US - West route, it was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% [2]. - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; for the US - West route, it was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [2]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [3]. 3.3 Market News and Policy - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits transit trade. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [4]. - On August 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched three "special military operations" against two Israeli military targets and the Haifa port, and an Israeli air defense system shot down a drone from Yemen. There were no casualties reported [4]. - On August 1, the WTO reported that the global service trade growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 slowed to 5%, about half of the growth rates in 2024 and 2023. Service trade exports in Europe and North America only increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the data in the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, Asia maintained a strong growth of 9%. Financial service exports increased by 3% year - on - year, reflecting a decrease in investment activities due to increased global economic uncertainty [4]. 3.4 Contract Information - On August 4, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1421.8, with a decline of 0.72%, a trading volume of 3.03 million lots, and an open interest of 5.11 million lots, a decrease of 1323 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].