Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the price increase announcement failed, and the market is in a pessimistic atmosphere with wide - range fluctuations and in a bottom - searching process. The short - term operation is difficult, and risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1][4]. - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies intend to support prices, but cannot avoid price wars among alliances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In the eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the March services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), and the March composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed down significantly [3]. - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI preliminary value was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5, the highest in three months [3]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. d. Contract Information - On April 18, the main contract 2506 closed at 1533.0, with a decline of 1.11%, a trading volume of 53,900 lots, and an open interest of 36,100 lots, a reduction of 817 lots from the previous day [4]. - The price limit for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 16%. The company's margin for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. e. Other Information - Most shipping companies will continue to use the April - end freight rates in early May, and the price increase announcement in early May failed, with a generally bearish atmosphere and wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Maersk will adjust the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for routes from countries in the Far East (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice, with 1000 US dollars for small containers and 2000 US dollars for large containers [5]. - There are reports that Hamas is willing to reach a long - term cease - fire with Israel and hand over the governance control of Gaza to an independent institution, but the news has not been confirmed by Hamas [4][5]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a statement opposing the US 301 investigation measures against China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding sectors [5].

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 22 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-22） | | | | 铁矿：外部扰动延续但边际影响减弱，国内稳市场为主，市场情绪有一定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 改善。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量继续环比小幅增加，随着天气转暖和矿 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运和到港量有望逐步回升。钢企 | | | | | 盈利状况尚可，日均铁水产量保持高位，远超去年同期水平，港口铁矿石 | | | | | 去库较好，铁矿基本面边际好转。受反倾销和关税影响，出口面临下滑， | | | | | 板材需求降幅增大。5 月合约即将进入交割月，前期入场的铁矿石 59 正 | | | | | 套择机止盈，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，激进的投资尝试 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 铁矿 09 合约逢高空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：国内焦煤产量仍偏高，焦煤总体产地供应有所增加，受关税影 ...

| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | --- | | 4月18日 4月14日 | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）921.24点，较上期下跌4.20% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 839.73点, 较上期下跌10.11% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1216.42点，较上期下跌0.46% | | 4月18日 4月18日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1370.58点，较上期下跌24.10点 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1110.94点，较上期上涨0.3% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1316USD/TEU, 较上期下跌2.9% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1486.14点，较上期下跌0.6% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2103USD/FEU,较上期下跌4.5% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（美西航线） ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 21 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-21） | | | | 铁矿：外部扰动延续但边际影响减弱，国内稳市场为主，市场情绪有一定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 改善。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比小幅增加，随着天气转暖和矿山检 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢企盈利状况尚 | | | | | 可，日均铁水产量保持高位，已超去年同期水平。受反倾销和关税影响， | | | | | 板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。铁矿供强需弱预期，叠加远月有粗钢 | | | | | 限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可持有铁矿 05-09 正套，铁 | | | | | 矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | 煤焦 | 偏弱 | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨落地，关税预期的反复影响，黑色板块仍承压，宏观 | | | | | 预期虽在，但未看到有效出台。国内从美国进口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次 | | | | | 进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly eased, with the market fluctuating widely under the game between bulls and bears. It is difficult to operate in the near term, and risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The tariff policy of the United States in April will add a large disturbing factor to the future shipping trend, and the price war between shipping alliances needs to be concerned [4] - Market bearish factors have slightly weakened their impact on the market. The tariff war may delay the peak season of the European line, and the market is fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On April 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1129.45 points, up 3.7% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 961.61 points, down 2.10% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 934.17 points, up 1.76% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1222.05 points, down 17.95% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1394.68 points, up 1.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1356 USD/TEU, up 1.5% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2202 USD/FEU, down 4.8% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1107.28 points, up 0.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1495.45 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 796.27 points, up 2.5% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in March was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the preliminary services PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and the preliminary composite PMI rose to 50.4 (50.2 in February, the highest since August). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, with a significantly slower contraction rate of employment [3] - In the US, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8 (the lowest in three months), the preliminary services PMI was 54.3 (the highest in three months), and the preliminary composite PMI was 53.5 (the highest in three months) [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuation is large [4] - Long - term strategy: Currently, the far - month contracts are deeply discounted. All profits have been recommended to be taken. It is recommended to wait for the price war in April to be clear and the far - month contracts to adjust to a suitable price before making a layout [4] Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On April 17, the main contract 2506 closed at 1555.2, down 1.67%, with a trading volume of 66,900 lots and an open interest of 36,900 lots, an increase of 506 lots from the previous day [4] Other Information - Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge (PSS) for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice. The PSS is 1000 US dollars for 20 - foot containers and 2000 US dollars for 40 - foot containers [5]

2025年4月17日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美国再度提高对华关税,悲观情绪下盘面持续承压下行,近期操作难度较高,风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 4月14日 | 4月11日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 934.17点，较上期上涨1.76% | | 4月11日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1222.05点，较上期下跌17.95% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1356USD/TEU, 较上期上涨1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 交易提示 | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石市场行情主要受到宏观因素影响，关税预期的反复，盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 面波动加剧。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比小幅增加，随着天气转暖和 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢企盈利 | | | | | 状况尚可，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平。受反倾 | | | | | 销和关税影响，板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。铁矿供强需弱预期， | | | | | 叠加远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可持有铁矿 | | | | | 05-09 正套，铁矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨落地，叠加宏观预期偏强，盘面下方受到支撑。国内 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 从美国进口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的 | | | | | 焦煤将受到影响，同时从蒙古、俄罗斯、澳大利亚增加进口来替代美国进 | | ...

2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，制造业景气水平明显回升。中国2月财新制造业PMI 50.8，近三个月最高，用 工收缩率明显放缓。 美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PM 初值录得49.8，为 3 个月以来新低。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值录得 54.3，为 3 个月以来新高。美国 3 月标普全 球综合 PMI 初值录得 53.5, 为 3个月以来新高。 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对加拿 大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长协定价窗 口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加一个较大的扰 动因素，在运价上各船司有意挺价，但绕不开联盟间的价格战。综上 述,我们认为一需要关注MSK与MSC在第二季度开展的价格战问 题,二是激进的关税政策下终端需求的反馈。 4月15日主力合约2506收盘1600.1, 跌幅为7.72%, 成交量5.54万 手,持仓量3.54万手,较上日增仓2304手。 关税战引发对全球航运的担忧，也对市场带来消极扰动，MSK上涨 美线旺季附加费,盘面承压低位震荡。之后需对关税政策、中东局势 以及现货运 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 16 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-16） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石市场行情主要受到宏观因素影响，关税预期的反复，盘 面波动加剧。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比增加 41.8 万吨，随着天气 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢 | | | | | 企盈利状况尚可，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平。 | | | | | 受反倾销和关税影响，板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。铁矿供强需弱 | | | | | 预期，叠加远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投资者仍可持有 | | | | | 铁矿 05-09 正套，铁矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭首轮提涨落地，叠加宏观预期偏强，盘面下方受到支撑。国内 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 从美国进口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的 | | | | | 焦煤将受到影响，同时从蒙古 ...

| 4月14日 | 4月11日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 934.17点, 较上期上涨1.76% | | 4月11日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1222.05点, 较上期下跌17.95% | | | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1356USD/TEU,较上期上涨1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2202USD/FEU,较上期下跌4.8% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1495.45点，较上期下跌0.8% | | | 中国出口集 ...