交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 15 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-15） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石市场行情主要受到宏观因素影响，关税预期的反复，盘 面波动加剧。本期澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量环比增加 41.8 万吨，随着天气 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 转暖和矿山检修结束，二季度供给端扰动减少，发运量有望逐步回升。钢 | | | | | 企盈利状况尚可，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平， | | | | | 但有见顶迹象。受反倾销和关税影响，板材需求降幅增大，出口面临下滑。 | | | | | 铁矿供强需弱预期，叠加远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制，稳健的投 | | | | | 资者仍可持有铁矿 05-09 正套，铁矿 09 合约长期空配。 | | | | | 煤焦：焦炭提涨，叠加宏观预期偏强，盘面下方受到支撑。国内从美国进 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 口的煤炭以焦煤为主，本次进一步提高关税，后期从美国进口的焦煤将受 | | | | | 到影响，同时 ...

| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 4月7日 | | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下 | 4月11日 | | 跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）934.17点，较上期上涨1.76% | | 涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1222.05点，较上期下跌17.95% | | 4月11日 | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1356USD/TEU,较上期上涨 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1507.27点，较上期下跌1.3% | | 1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（美西航线）776.61点，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Bullish [4] - Silver: Bullish [4] - Soybean oil: Rebound [3] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish with volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish with volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish with volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bullish with volatility [6] - Rubber: Volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak volatility [6] - Logs: Volatility [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Bullish with volatility [7] - PF: Buy on dips for processing margin [7] - Plastic: Volatility, bullish bias [7] - PP: Volatility, bullish bias [8] - PVC: Volatility, bullish bias [8] Core Viewpoints - The tariff policy has caused significant fluctuations in commodities. The US suspension of tariffs on some Chinese goods has alleviated market sentiment, but different industries are affected differently [2][4]. - In the black industry, demand is generally weak, and supply and demand are seeking a new balance. In the financial market, the stock index is affected by macro - economic data and policies, and the bond market is affected by interest rates and capital supply. The precious metals market is driven by geopolitical risks, inflation data, and central bank actions. The agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as production, trade policies, and weather [2][4][6]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Although the export order index of China's manufacturing industry has rebounded, it is still in the contraction range, which restricts the export of steel products and drags down raw material demand. The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is loose. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the daily average pig iron output has rebounded but shows signs of peaking. Investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation and long - term short - allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The increase in tariffs on US coking coal imports will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase from other countries. The high output of coking coal and the over - supply of coke remain unchanged, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased. The first round of price increases by coke enterprises has supported the market, and the overall market follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The tariff policy has caused fluctuations, and the current valuation is neutral. The cost of off - peak electricity supports the price. Both production and demand are increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. Steel mills are unlikely to cut production spontaneously on a large scale, and production is expected to increase in April. Terminal demand is in a weak recovery stage, and the May contract may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: Production has increased slightly, and the 2025 completion volume is expected to be lower than that in 2024. Although there are real - estate利好消息, the transmission of terminal demand takes time. Inventory has been decreasing, and the short - term tariff disturbance is negative. Attention should be paid to macro - policies, inventory changes, cold - repair progress, and the increase in real - estate completion area [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index**: The previous trading day's stock index showed different trends, with capital flowing into the precious metals and semiconductor sectors and out of the agricultural and food sectors. The social financing scale in the first quarter of 2025 increased year - on - year, and the money supply also changed. The four - department guidance on financial support for the sports industry was issued. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment, long positions in the stock index can be held [4]. - **Treasury bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. With the significant decline in interest rates and stable market funds, Treasury bonds are on the rise [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Geopolitical risks, debt problems, and inflation data all affect the price of precious metals. The short - term trade - war escalation and the expected decline in US inflation support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Oils and fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the export market is weak. South American soybeans have a record - high harvest, and the import of Brazilian soybeans to China is affected by trade frictions. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and the inventory of oils and fats is declining. With the easing of tariff expectations, oils and fats are expected to stop falling and rebound [3][6]. - **Meals**: The USDA's supply - demand data is positive, and the postponement of some tariffs by the US and the EU has alleviated concerns about US crop exports. Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and the heavy rain in Argentina has raised concerns about soybean production. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bullish with volatility, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The USDA report is slightly positive, and the export of new Brazilian soybeans is accelerating. The expected soybean arrivals in the first quarter in China are lower than last year, but it may exceed 10 million tons in April. The short - term trend is bullish with volatility, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean arrivals [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The price of Shanghai rubber has risen slightly. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the arrival of imported rubber has increased inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by tariff disputes. The supply in Yunnan is affected by weather and diseases, and the demand is weakening. The short - term market is expected to show weak volatility [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price has stabilized. The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from paper mills is weak, and the pulp price is expected to show weak volatility [6]. - **Logs**: The spot market price is relatively strong, but the sustainability is questionable. The arrival of logs is expected to decrease, the supply pressure will decline, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Chemical Products**: - **PX**: The demand is weakening, and the oil price is under pressure. The domestic PX load is decreasing, and the PXN spread is volatile. The PX price is expected to follow the oil - price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The raw - material price fluctuates, the PXN spread is around $189/ton, and the spot TA processing margin is around 315 yuan/ton. The TA load has decreased, and the polyester load is stable. The short - term supply and demand are okay, mainly affected by raw - material price fluctuations [7]. - **MEG**: The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port may accumulate inventory. The polyester load has rebounded. The raw - material end is differentiated, and the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, resulting in wide - range fluctuations in the disk [7]. - **PR**: The increase in the weekend oil price provides strong cost support, and the polyester bottle - chip market is mainly in a strong - side volatile state [7]. - **PF**: The increase in the oil price and the good short - term supply - demand pattern of PTA and EG support the cost. The short - term market of polyester staple fiber is expected to rebound, but the long - term impact of trade disputes on the downstream should be noted [7]. - **Plastic**: The price has decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the supply is at a high level. With the increase in downstream start - up and the decrease in inventory, the 05 contract is expected to run with a bullish bias [7]. - **PP**: The price has decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the cost has increased. The impact of tariffs is positive. The supply pressure is not large, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price is expected to run with a bullish bias [8]. - **PVC**: The cost of calcium carbide is stable. The upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the export is average. The short - term inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand contradiction is still large. With the positive sentiment from the US cancellation of some tariffs, the PVC is expected to run with a bullish bias [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The suspension of tariffs on some countries by the US has boosted bullish sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in the market. However, recent operations are highly challenging. Risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The core logic for this year's prediction lies in the direction of international tariff policies. In April, the US may change its tariff policies towards countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe again. The inclusion of retaliatory tariffs in the negotiation process adds a significant disturbing factor to the future of the shipping industry [1] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Indexes - On April 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1422.42 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1129.45 points, a 3.7% increase from the previous period [1] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 983.01 points, a 12.89% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, a 0.65% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1524.4 points, a 49.83% increase from the previous period [1] - On April 3, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1392.78 points, a 35.90 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1336 USD/TEU, a 1.4% increase from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2313 USD/FEU, a 6.2% increase from the previous period [1] - On April 3, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1102.71 points, a 0.8% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1507.27 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 776.61 points, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [1] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.4 (expected 51). The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in March rose to 50.4, up from 50.2 in February, the highest since August. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in March was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [1] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an obvious recovery in manufacturing prosperity. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in February was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the contraction rate of employment slowed down significantly [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 54.3, the highest in three months; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global composite PMI in March was 53.5, the highest in three months [1] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract drops below 1900 points and the 2510 contract drops below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [1] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse - arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [1] - Long - term strategy: Currently, the far - month contracts are in deep water. It is recommended to take all profits. After the price war situation becomes clear in April, wait for the far - month contracts to adjust to an appropriate price before making new arrangements [1] Market Conditions - On April 10, the main contract 2506 closed at 1886.0, with a 14.47% increase, a trading volume of 82,600 lots, and an open interest of 33,200 lots, a decrease of 1498 lots from the previous day [1] - Due to the US announcement of tariff suspension for non - retaliatory countries, the market rebounded rapidly, and the container shipping index futures opened and closed higher. In the future, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500: Fluctuation [4] - CSI 1000: Fluctuation [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Correction [4] - Silver: Correction [4] - Soybean oil: Fluctuation [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Fluctuation with a bearish bias [6] - Pulp: Weak fluctuation [8] - Logs: Weak fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Buy on dips [8] - Plastic: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [8] - PP: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] - PVC: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff policy has disrupted the market, causing increased volatility in commodities. The US has imposed a 104% tariff on China, leading to a short-term bearish sentiment. The export order index of China's manufacturing industry in March continued to rise but remained in the contraction range, which will restrict the export of steel products and downstream products and drag down raw material demand [2]. - The geopolitical situation and high-interest rate environment are changing the pricing mechanism of gold. The global central bank's gold purchases are the key factor, reflecting the "decentralization" and hedging demand. Although the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's hedging demand remains strong [4]. - The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but some institutions have lowered the forecast for Brazil's soybean production. The increase in soybean imports in China in April may ease the tight supply situation. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. It is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is in a loose state. The profitability of steel enterprises has improved, and the daily average pig iron output has increased slightly. However, the export demand is weak. The iron ore price is affected by the macro - expectation and the reality. Conservative investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore, and the 09 contract can be used as a long - term short allocation [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: China has increased the tariff on imported coking coal from the US. The import of coking coal from the US is expected to decrease, and imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia will increase to replace it. The coke supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure has increased. The coking coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: The mutual tariff increase is bearish for the black industry. Although there may be positive stimuli in China, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. The production and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. It is expected that the production will gradually increase in April [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe have declined significantly. The production has increased slightly from a low level, and the production profit has shrunk. The demand in the glass industry is seasonally increasing, and inventory reduction in April is expected. The short - term tariff policy is bearish for the market [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a peripheral community with a shared future. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff rate on US - imported goods. The external market has stabilized, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased, and the market funds are stable. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net回笼 was 11.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the Treasury bond price will rise [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Although the geopolitical risk has decreased, Trump's tariff policy has increased the market's hedging demand. The physical gold demand in China has increased significantly. The short - term trade war and inflation expectations support the gold price [4]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle. The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to rise for the first time in six months. The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but the tariff policy may affect the trade pattern. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and it is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Meals**: China's counter - tariff on US goods may lead to a decline in US soybean exports. However, the US bio - energy policy and the reduction in planting area support the demand for US soybean crushing. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans will occupy the Chinese market. It is expected that the tight supply of soybean meal will ease in the later stage [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the import arrival has increased the inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by the tariff dispute. The demand side shows signs of further weakening, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will show a weak - fluctuation trend in the short term [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline. The external price of pulp provides cost support, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that the logs will mainly fluctuate [8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR**: The US suspension of taxation on some countries supports the short - term rebound of oil prices. The load of domestic PX has continued to decline, and the PTA load has fluctuated. The raw materials of PTA have temporarily stopped falling, and the supply and demand of PTA are not bad in the short term. The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The polyester load has rebounded. It is expected that these products will follow the oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PF**: The oil price has rebounded, but the terminal orders are insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish. It is expected that the polyester staple fiber market will narrow - range consolidate in the near future [8]. - **Plastic, PP, PVC**: The cost of plastic and PP is affected by the rise in oil prices. The supply of plastic is under pressure, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price of PP is affected by the cancellation of some tariffs and the rise in oil prices. The cost of PVC is stable, the upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the short - term inventory has decreased. It is expected that these products will fluctuate with a bullish bias [8][10].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 | | | | 言人就美方威胁升级对华关税发表谈话指出，美方威胁进一步对华加征 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 震荡 | 50%关税，中方对此坚决反对。如果美方升级关税措施落地，中方将坚决 | | | | | 采取反制措施维护自身权益。美方对华加征所谓"对等关税"毫无根据， | | | | | 是典型的单边霸凌做法，中方已经采取的反制措施是为了维护自身主权安 | | | 中证 1000 | 震荡 | 全发展利益，维护正常的国际贸易秩序，完全是正当之举。美方威胁升级 | | | | | 对华关税，是错上加错，再次暴露了美方的讹诈本质，中方对此绝不接受。 | | | | | 如果美方一意孤行，中方必将奉陪到底。中央汇金称将持续加大增持 ETF | | 金 | 2 年期国债 | 震荡 | 规模和力度，并首次提出类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布，将通过再 | | 融 | | | 贷款向汇金提供充足资金支持。同时，金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投 | | | | | 资比 ...

2025年4月9日 集运日报 财联社4月8日电，也门胡塞武装军事发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚当地时间7日晚间发表讲话称，胡塞武装通过无人机成功袭击了以色列雅法一处军事目标，胡塞 (航运研究小组) 贸易战持续发酵，美线悲观情绪加剧，推动盘面持续下探，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 4月7日 | 3月28日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）983.01点，较上期上涨12.89% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 866.25点，较上期下跌0.65% | | 4月3日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1524.4点，较上期上涨49.83% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1392.78点，较上期上涨35.90点 | 4月3日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1336USD/TEU, 较上期上涨1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] - Soybean oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Palm oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [6] - Rubber: Weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [7] - Log: Weakly volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Buy on dips [7] - Plastic: Weakly volatile [7] - PP: Weakly volatile [8] - PVC: Weakly volatile [8] Core Viewpoints - The global trade situation is tense due to Trump's tariff policies, which have a negative impact on various industries, especially the black metal and export - related industries. However, China has a series of policy tools in reserve to stabilize the economy and the capital market [2][3]. - The prices of most commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policy. For example, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand is restricted; the coal - coke industry is adjusting its supply sources; the real estate - related glass and building materials industries are affected by demand recovery and policy [2][3][7]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to be supported by policy, and the bond market shows different trends according to different maturities. The price of precious metals is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand [3]. - The agricultural and oil - fat markets are affected by factors such as seasonal production, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the palm oil is in the production - increasing season, and the soybean market is affected by planting area, inventory, and trade tariffs [6]. Summary by Categories Black Metal Industry - **Iron ore**: The global trade situation restricts the export of steel products and downstream products, dragging down the demand for raw materials. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the daily molten iron output has a limited upward space. Stable investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore and the long - term short allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - **Coal - coke**: The increase in tariffs on imported coal from the US will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase in imports from other countries. The supply of coke is still in an over - supply pattern, and the coal - coke market generally follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: The mutual increase in tariffs is negative for the black metal industry. Although there may be domestic stimulus policies, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage, and the price may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe have declined, and the production is expected to increase slightly. The demand is in a seasonal recovery, and the price of the 2505 contract is under pressure [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index**: The previous trading day's stock index fell, but future policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus are expected to support the capital market. The agricultural sector has capital inflows, and the stock index is expected to be stable [3]. - **Treasury bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The 2 - year Treasury bond shows a volatile trend, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds are expected to rise [3]. - **Precious metals**: The price of gold is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand. Although the logic of the previous price increase has not completely reversed, the short - term price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The price of silver also shows a correction trend [3]. Agricultural and Oil - Fat Market - **Oil - fat**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season, and the inventory is expected to rise. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the overall supply of the three major oils is abundant. The price of oils is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Oil - meal**: The US soybean faces export risks, but the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to improve. The demand for downstream products is cautious, and the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The export of Brazilian new soybeans is accelerating, and the supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase. The price is expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather and trade policies [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by the tariff dispute. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from the papermaking industry is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. - **Log**: The supply pressure of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to be mainly volatile [7]. - **Chemical Products**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and PR are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and trade policies, and are generally in a wait - and - see state. The price of PF is expected to be weak in the short term, and the prices of plastic, PP, and PVC are expected to be weakly volatile [7][8].

欧元区3月制造业PM1初值为48.7，预期48.2; 3月服务业PM1初值为50.4，预期51。欧元区3月综合PM1初值升至50.4, 2月为50.2，为8月以来最 高。欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数为-2.9,预期-8.4,前值-12.7。 2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PM）为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，制造业景气水平明显回升。中国2月财新制造业PMI 50.8，近三个月最 高,用工收缩率明显放缓。 美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值录得49.8, 为 3 个月以来新低。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值录得 54.3, 为 3 个月以来新高。美国 3 月 标普全球综合 PMI 初值录得 53.5, 为 3个月以来新高。 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向,4月美国将对 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 短期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2506合约区间交易(1950- 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 2450) 上述区间内逢低试多逢高试空,设置好止损。 间的价格战。综 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated March 31, 2025, released by the shipping research team [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The market has a bullish sentiment towards future freight rates, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Risk - takers can attempt a short - term rebound strategy with a light position [2] - The core logic for this year's shipping market lies in international tariff policies. In April, the US will re - evaluate tariff policies with Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding significant uncertainties to the shipping market [3] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4: Freight Index Analysis SCFIS and NCFI - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, down 0.65% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On March 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1356.88 points, up 64.13 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1318 USD/TEU, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2177 USD/FEU, up 16.3% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1111.71 points, down 3.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1526.99 points, down 3.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 806.01 points, down 6.3% from the previous period [2] Group 5: PMI and Investor Confidence Index Eurozone - The Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the March services PMI flash was 50.4 (expected 51). The March composite PMI flash rose to 50.4, the highest since August [2] - The Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous - 12.7) [2] China - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed significantly [2] US - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI flash was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI flash was 53.5, the highest in three months [3] Group 6: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - Risk - takers can try to enter the market at the 1900 - 2000 range of the 2508 contract for a short - term rebound in the peak - season contract and set stop - losses [3] Arbitrage Strategy - Due to the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts and the basic determination of tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with short windows and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3] Long - term Strategy - All long - term positions in far - month contracts have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts adjust to appropriate prices before making new arrangements [3] Group 7: Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16% [3] - The company's margin requirement for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [3] - On March 28, the main contract 2506 closed at 2288.0, up 6.14%, with a trading volume of 64,100 lots and an open interest of 34,800 lots, an increase of 811 lots from the previous day [3] Group 8: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - The US trade protectionist policies introduced by Trump have increased global economic uncertainties, and the US - EU trade war may harm both sides [4] - The Palestine - Israel conflict continues, and the delay in the cease - fire agreement negotiation adds uncertainties to the shipping market [3]