浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 浦银国际 公司研究 华润啤酒 （291.HK） 华润啤酒（291.HK）：强大的产品矩阵与 管理能力助力公司抵御周期跑赢对手 维持"买入"评级：尽管宏观消费力面临挑战，华润啤酒 1H24 啤酒 销量下滑幅度小于主要竞争对手，高端产品依然录得大幅增长，产品 结构持续改善，平均客单价同比提升幅度亦高于主要竞争对手。以上 都体现了华润啤酒在产品与品牌组合上的优势。基于较强的现金流 （1H24 经营现金流同比大幅增长 25.6%），公司将 1H24 派息率提升 至 26%（相较 1H23 的 20%）。更重要的是，公司在面临业绩压力的 情况下，不轻易缩减费用，坚持对产品的市场投入、坚持长期基本面 的提升、积极通过产品与渠道的调整来应对持续变化的市场趋势和 需求。这些都将利好公司长期可持续的发展，助力公司抵御周期，业 绩跑赢对手。维持"买入"。 行业高端化受阻，但华润的高端化仍在继续：由于现饮渠道面临较大 压力，中国啤酒行业整体高端化趋势减弱。然而，华润啤酒 1H24 的 高端化趋势依然显著。在整体啤酒销量同比下滑 3.4%的情况下，次 高端及以上产品销量同比增长个位数，高端及以上 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 华润啤酒（00291） 港股点评 啤酒高端化放缓，白酒投入增加 ——华润啤酒 24H1 点评 主要观点： [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2024-08-19 [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） 24.00 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）48.60/22.90 总股本（百万股） 3,244 流通股本（百万股） 3,244 流通股比例（%） 100.00 总市值（亿港元） 779 流通市值（亿港元） 779 [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] -57% -38% -18% 2% 21% 8/23 11/23 2/24 5/24 华润啤酒 恒生指数 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 分析师：罗越文 执业证书号：S0010524020001 邮箱：luoyuewen@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.华润啤酒 23A：啤酒稳步高端化， 白酒进入增长期 2024-03-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company, citing attractive valuation levels and strong management execution [4] Core Views - The company's beer business faces pressure from weak consumer demand, but internal cost optimization and premiumization efforts are driving profit growth [4] - The company's premium beer segment, led by brands like Heineken, Snow, and Red Label, saw over 10% YoY growth in sales volume [4] - The company's liquor business, particularly the "Summary" brand, is showing strong growth potential, with sales up over 50% YoY [5] - The company's beer business achieved a record-high EBIT margin of 28.3% in H1 2024, driven by cost reductions and lower packaging material costs [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 23.744 billion, down 0.5% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.7 billion, up 1.2% YoY [4] - The beer business generated revenue of RMB 22.566 billion in H1 2024, down 1.4% YoY, with a sales volume of 6.348 million tons, down 3.4% YoY [4] - The liquor business achieved revenue of RMB 1.178 billion in H1 2024, up 20.6% YoY, with the "Summary" brand contributing 70% of the liquor business revenue [5] - The company's beer business gross margin improved to 45.8% in H1 2024, up 0.6 percentage points YoY [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to RMB 5.633 billion, RMB 6.373 billion, and RMB 7.191 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing YoY growth rates of 9%, 13%, and 13% [4] - The current stock price implies a PE ratio of 13x, 11x, and 10x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's valuation (PE-TTM) is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years, making it attractive [4] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on premiumization in its beer business, with mid-to-high-end products expected to continue increasing their share [4] - The company has restructured its beer operations, separating production and sales, which is expected to enhance efficiency [4] - The liquor business is undergoing integration, with the company actively promoting new products and stabilizing pricing to improve profitability [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华润啤酒（00291.HK）2024 年中报点评 强推（维持） 升级仍在前行，安全边际突出 目标价：40.0 港元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年中报，2024H1 年实现营业收入 237.4 亿元，同降 0.53%；实 现归母净利润 47.05 亿元，同增 1.2%；还原考虑资产减值和员工安置 0.19 亿 后，公司整体核心净利润 47.2 亿元，与 2023 年同期基本持平。此外，公司派 发中期股息 0.373 元/股，同增 30%，半年度分红率从 20.1%提升至 25.7%。 评论： ❖ 消费力与天气压制销售，高档表现相对较好，高基数下啤酒收入微降。24H1 啤酒业务实现收入 225.66 亿元，同降 1.43%；其中啤酒销量 634.8 万千升，同 降 3.4%，主要系高基数下消费偏疲软及 Q2 东南沿海雨水较多所致；吨价 3555 元/千升，同增 2.0%，升级整体延续 23H2 稳增态势，且高档表现更佳，次高 以上/高档以上销量分别同增个位数/双位数。分单品看，喜力、老雪、红爵均 实现 20%+增长，纯生同增中高个位数，SX 产品迭代压制销量表现，同时低档 产品下滑是 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of HKD 23.90 [2][5]. Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing trend of premiumization in the beer industry, although the overall performance is being dragged down by the white liquor segment [2][5]. - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 23.744 billion in H1 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while EBIT increased by 2.0% to HKD 6.368 billion, with an EBIT margin improvement of 0.7 percentage points to 26.8% [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in beer sales in the second half of the year, driven by a lower base and enhanced economies of scale, despite a downward revision in profit forecasts due to slowing premiumization and overall weak demand [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Revenue (in million HKD): 2022A: 36,428; 2023A: 40,064; 2024E: 40,754; 2025E: 41,902; 2026E: 43,024 [2]. - Net Profit (in million HKD): 2022A: 4,344; 2023A: 5,153; 2024E: 5,403; 2025E: 6,080; 2026E: 6,646 [2]. - EPS (in HKD): 2022A: 1.34; 2023A: 1.59; 2024E: 1.67; 2025E: 1.87; 2026E: 2.05 [2]. - **Sales Performance**: - Beer revenue for H1 2024 was HKD 22.566 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year, with beer sales volume at 6.348 million kiloliters, a decrease of 3.4% [5]. - The average price of beer increased by 2.0% to HKD 3,555 per kiloliter, with mid-range and above sales accounting for over 50% of total sales for the first time [5]. - **Cost and Margin Analysis**: - Beer gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8%, while overall gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 46.9% [5]. - The report notes an increase in beer production costs by 0.9% to HKD 1,925 per kiloliter, attributed to a decrease in production capacity utilization [5]. - **White Liquor Segment**: - White liquor revenue grew by 20.6% to HKD 1.178 billion, with high-end products seeing significant sales growth [5]. - However, the profitability of the white liquor segment is under pressure due to rising expenses, leading to a decline in EBITDA and EBIT margins [5]. Market Comparison - The report includes comparisons with industry peers and highlights the competitive landscape, indicating that the company is well-positioned to leverage the premiumization trend despite current challenges [4].

Financial Performance - The group's unaudited consolidated revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 23,744,000,000, benefiting from the continued development of the premiumization strategy in the beer and liquor businesses[2]. - Shareholders' profit attributable to the company for the first half of 2024 was RMB 4,705,000,000, an increase of 1.2% compared to the same period last year[2]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities increased by 25.6% year-on-year, reflecting the company's strong cash generation capability[2]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 23,744 million, a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to RMB 23,871 million for the same period in 2023[17]. - Gross profit increased to RMB 11,139 million, representing a growth of 1.3% from RMB 10,991 million year-on-year[17]. - The company's net profit for the period was RMB 4,733 million, up 0.7% from RMB 4,698 million in the previous year[18]. - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 4,744 million, slightly higher than RMB 4,700 million in the prior year[18]. - The company reported a decrease in financial costs to RMB 56 million, down from RMB 135 million in the previous year, indicating improved financial management[17]. - The company's total equity increased to RMB 36,772 million from RMB 34,174 million at the end of 2023, showing a solid financial position[19]. - The company has sufficient resources to meet its liabilities and commitments, ensuring continued operations in the foreseeable future[20]. Beer Business Performance - Beer sales volume reached approximately 6,348,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decline of 3.4, but the proportion of mid-range and above beer sales exceeded 50% for the first time in the first half of the year[2]. - The average selling price of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with the gross margin for the beer business rising by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8%[2]. - The beer business's EBITDA margin increased significantly, exceeding 10 percentage points to reach 28.3%, marking a historical high[2]. - The unaudited consolidated revenue for the beer business in the first half of 2024 was RMB 22,566,000,000, with high-end beer products continuing to perform well[9]. - Mid-range and above beer sales accounted for over 50% of total sales for the first time in the first half of 2024, with e-commerce sales growing approximately 60% year-on-year[10]. - The beer business achieved a profit before interest and tax of RMB 6,365,000,000, an increase of about 2.6% compared to the same period last year, with a profit margin of 28.2%[10]. - Beer sales volume for the first half of 2024 was approximately 6,348 million liters, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, although high-end beer products continued to perform well[32]. Liquor Business Performance - The liquor business achieved an unaudited consolidated revenue of RMB 1,178,000,000, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20.6%, with the gross margin rising by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6%[2]. - The white liquor business recorded an unaudited consolidated revenue of RMB 1,178,000,000 in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 20.6%[11]. - The gross margin for the white liquor business rose by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% in the first half of 2024[11]. - Sales of the national high-end liquor product "Summary" grew by over 50% year-on-year, contributing approximately 70% to the liquor business revenue[2]. - Sales of the national high-end product "Summary" increased by over 50% year-on-year, contributing approximately 70% to the white liquor business revenue[35]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.373 per share, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year[3]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.373 per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 0.287 per share in the same period of 2023[25]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to maintain growth as its primary strategy and is committed to pursuing high-quality development while controlling capital expenditures[3]. - The group plans to implement a dual empowerment business model of "beer + liquor" to enhance competitive advantages and optimize management[12]. - The company is committed to achieving its "3+3+3" development strategy, focusing on transforming from scale to quality and from traditional to modern operations[12]. - The company has optimized its production capacity by ceasing operations at one brewery and starting operations at a new intelligent brewery in Jinan, Shandong[32]. - The company completed the acquisition of a 55.19% stake in Guizhou Jinsha Liquor Industry Co., Ltd., which has been included in the financial consolidation since January 10, 2023[31]. Compliance and Governance - The company has adhered to the corporate governance principles and guidelines since November 2003, with the latest revisions made on June 27, 2024[44]. - The company has confirmed compliance with the standards of the Code of Conduct for Securities Transactions, with no violations reported for the six months ending June 30, 2024[45]. - The interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2024, have been reviewed by the audit committee and independent auditor without any objections[46]. Other Financial Metrics - Current assets totaled RMB 19,004 million, an increase from RMB 17,141 million as of December 31, 2023[19]. - Inventory decreased to RMB 9,015 million from RMB 9,502 million, indicating improved inventory management[19]. - The company's interest income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 102 million, down from RMB 208 million in the same period of 2023[22]. - The company recognized government grants amounting to RMB 238 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 163 million in the same period of 2023[22]. - The total cost of goods sold for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 12,605 million, slightly down from RMB 12,880 million in the same period of 2023[25]. - The company’s capital expenditure for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 747 million, compared to RMB 76 million in the same period of 2023[21]. - The company’s depreciation and amortization expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 1,140 million, compared to RMB 1,149 million in the same period of 2023[21]. - The company’s total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 19,444 million, an increase from RMB 17,942 million in the same period of 2023[25]. - The company's bank loans as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 1,378 million, with an effective annual interest rate ranging from 0.99% to 2.35%[30]. - The group employed approximately 27,000 people, with employee costs totaling around RMB 2,882,000,000 for the year[40]. - The group has no significant acquisitions or disposals during the six months ended June 30, 2024[41]. - A framework agreement for a comprehensive energy project was signed on July 2, 2024, with a term from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2026[47].

华润啤酒(00291.HK) 2024 年 06 月 27 日 投资评级:增持(首次) | 日期 | 2024/6/26 | |-------------------------|---------------| | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 28.150 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 52.650/27.050 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 913.24 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 913.24 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 32.44 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 32.44 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 19.89 | | 股价走势图 | | 华润啤酒 恒生指数 -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 数据来源:聚源 聚击高端,拾级而上 ——港股公司首次覆盖报告 | 张宇光(分析师) | 方勇(分析师) | |--------------------------|--------------------------| | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | fangyong@kysec.cn ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Beer (291.HK) with a target price of HKD 43.2, indicating a potential upside of 47.9% from the current price of HKD 29.2 [9][18]. Core Insights - The stock price of China Resources Beer has declined approximately 25% over the past 40 days due to weak market sentiment, primarily driven by concerns over soft restaurant channels and adverse weather conditions affecting beer sales. However, the company's sales have remained resilient, and management maintains an optimistic outlook for the year [8]. - The report anticipates a significant rebound in the stock price within the next 30 days as market sentiment improves with the onset of the peak season and favorable weather conditions [8]. - Despite a challenging consumption environment, the company is expected to outperform major competitors in terms of sales performance in the first half of 2024 [8]. - The report projects a stable profit growth for the year, with a forecasted 20%-30% sales growth for Heineken products and a slight decrease in unit costs due to locked prices for raw materials [8]. - The impact of industry demand changes on the company's liquor business is expected to be limited, as it is still in the early stages of development with significant growth potential [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 35,263 million in 2022 to RMB 45,791 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.9% [13][14]. - Core net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,520 million in 2022 to RMB 7,692 million by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 14.2% [13][14]. - The report forecasts a gross margin improvement from 38.5% in 2022 to 45.6% in 2026, driven by cost management and pricing strategies [13][14]. Market Expectations - The report indicates that the market price range for China Resources Beer is between HKD 26.9 and HKD 54.5, with a current market capitalization of HKD 94,568 million [9][10]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is reported at HKD 360.7 million [9].

Summary of Conference Call for China Resources Beer Industry Overview - The conference primarily discussed the current market conditions and future strategies of the beer and liquor industry, particularly focusing on promotional activities, cost control, financial status, and sales plans [2][3][4] Key Points Market Conditions and Sales Strategies - The company anticipates a slight decline in sales in the short term but plans to stimulate growth through promotional activities such as sponsoring sports events, expecting a sales peak in the second half of the year [2][3][4] - The company is facing challenges from rising raw material costs and intends to implement effective cost control measures while optimizing operations to maintain competitiveness [2][3][4] - The liquor business has shown rapid growth, prompting the company to adjust its marketing strategies in preparation for the upcoming sales peak [2][3][4] Product and Pricing Strategy - The company has no plans for new product launches or price increases, maintaining a stable strategy focused on existing core products [2][4][16] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining channel health to avoid excessive inventory that could negatively impact sales [3][4] - The company is investing in online markets and actively responding to market feedback, showcasing effective strategies for business adjustments during the pandemic [2][4] Competition and Market Dynamics - The discussion highlighted the potential risks facing the beer industry and strategies to cope with economic fluctuations affecting sales [5][6][22] - The company believes that even under economic pressure, it can achieve stable growth through robust market support and economies of scale [5][6][22] - The conversation also touched on the competitive dynamics among companies in the industry and the advantages of non-cash sales channels in resisting economic downturns [5][6][22] Sales Channel Analysis - Different sales channels, such as large supermarkets and small convenience stores, are experiencing varying performance levels, with convenience stores showing good growth potential [6][7][23] - The company plans to adapt to changing market and consumer habits by leveraging existing distributor networks and exploring new sales channels [6][7][23] Future Business Focus - The company is focusing on the development of white and black beers, including healthier options and potential price adjustments to meet high-end market demands [7][8][24] - Continuous product innovation and market adaptability are emphasized as crucial for maintaining a competitive edge in a challenging market [7][8][24] Financial Outlook - The company expects a slight increase in sales expenses due to the impact of the UEFA European Championship, but the overall sales target remains unchanged [4][10][13] - Gross profit margin is projected to improve by approximately 1.25 percentage points due to cost-side improvements [4][10][13] - The liquor business is expected to grow by 30-40% annually, although this may be influenced by overall economic conditions [17][18] Conclusion - The company demonstrates a proactive approach to navigating market challenges and competition, focusing on strategic promotions, cost management, and product innovation to drive future growth [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]

Company and Industry Summary Company Involved - The document involves a company that operates in the consumer beverage sector, specifically focusing on the Chinese market. Core Points and Arguments - The company has recently released its annual performance report, indicating a significant update on its financial status and future development strategies [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The investor relations head, Kevin, was invited to provide insights and updates, highlighting the company's commitment to transparency and communication with investors [1].