Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with beer business revenue at 22.566 billion RMB, down 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.71 billion RMB, an increase of 1.2%. The interim dividend declared is 0.373 RMB per share, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - External demand is under pressure, leading to a decline in beer volume but an increase in price, with structural upgrades showing resilience. Beer sales volume in H1 2024 was 6.348 million kiloliters, down 3.4% year-on-year. The average price of beer is estimated at 3,554.8 RMB per kiloliter, up 2.0% year-on-year. The sales of premium and above beer products grew over 10%, with certain brands seeing growth rates exceeding 20% [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved, with a gross margin of 46.9% in H1 2024, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The beer business gross margin was 45.8%, driven by increased prices and reduced packaging costs [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB, with beer revenue at 22.566 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.71 billion RMB. The beer sales volume decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 2.0% [4][6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 39.78 billion, 40.89 billion, and 42.00 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 5.33 billion, 5.93 billion, and 6.43 billion RMB [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expense ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.2% in H1 2024. The EBITDA margin improved to 27.0%, with the beer business achieving an EBITDA of 6.365 billion RMB, up 2.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 45.8%, attributed to price increases and lower packaging costs [4][5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The company is valued using a segmented valuation method, with the beer business assigned a PE ratio of 16-20 times and the liquor business a PE ratio of 10-15 times. The estimated fair value range for the stock is 25.71-32.38 RMB per share, or 27.94-35.20 HKD per share [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion RMB, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [5] - Beer revenue reached 22.566 billion RMB, down 1.4% year-on-year, with beer sales volume at 6.348 million kiloliters, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to macroeconomic fluctuations and adverse weather in certain regions [6] - The average selling price of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year to 3,554 RMB per kiloliter, driven by continuous product structure upgrades [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer business gross margin at 45.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [7] - The company expects better sales growth in the second half of the year due to a lower comparative base, despite a challenging beer consumption environment [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.744 billion RMB, with a net profit of 4.705 billion RMB [5] - The beer segment's revenue was 22.566 billion RMB, with a sales volume of 6.348 million kiloliters [6] - The company’s EBIT margin improved to 26.8%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end and above products, which saw a sales volume growth of over 10% year-on-year [6] - The Heineken brand experienced a sales increase of over 20% in the first half of 2024, supported by national expansion efforts [8] - The white wine business achieved over 20% revenue growth, with high-end products contributing significantly [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross profit margin improved due to a decrease in packaging costs and product upgrades [7] - The administrative expense ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting cost control measures [7] - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to ongoing challenges in beer demand and the white wine sector [8]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|华润啤酒（00291） 2024 年半年报点评： 高端化延续推进，啤白双赋能成效初显 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月22日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 考虑到消费弱复苏，我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 396.40/411.35/426.33 亿 元，同比增速分别为 1.82%/3.77%/3.64%，归母净利润分别为 53.79/56.65/59.61 亿元，同比 增速分别为 4.39%/5.30%/5.23%，对应三年 CAGR 为 4.97%，对应 2024-2026 年 PE14/13/13X。 考虑到公司高端化延续推进，啤白双赋能成效初显，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月22日 华润啤酒(00291) 2024 年半年报点评： 高端化延续推进，啤白双赋 ...

公 司 研 究 2024 年 08 月 20 日 公司点评 买入/维持 华润啤酒(00291) 目标价: 31.70 昨收盘:24.00 华润啤酒：啤酒业务高端化延续，白酒业务稳步发展 ◼ 走势比较 (50%) (36%) (22%) (8%) 6% 20% 23/8/2123/11/124/1/1224/3/2424/6/424/8/15 华润啤酒 恒生指数 ◼ 股票数据 总股本(亿股) 32.4 总市值(亿港元) 778.6 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 48.6/22.9 相关研究报告 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 研究助理：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030019 事件：公司公布中报业绩，2024H1 实现收入 237.44 亿元，同比-0.5%， 实现归母净利润 47.05 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。还原 1900 万元固定资产减 值亏损和一次性员工补偿及安置费用，2024H1 核心净利润 47.2 亿元，同 比持平。 上半年销量略有 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][5] Core Views - The beer business experienced a decline in sales volume but an increase in average price, leading to enhanced profitability [1][4] - The company reported total revenue of 23.744 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with an EBIT of 6.368 billion yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.705 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year [1][4] - The beer industry is under pressure, but the company continues to focus on high-end product development, with mid-range and above beer sales accounting for over 50% of total sales for the first time [1][4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the beer business generated revenue of 22.566 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, with total sales volume decreasing by 3.4% due to weak industry demand and adverse weather conditions [1][4] - The average price per ton of beer increased by 2.0% year-on-year, supported by product structure upgrades [1][4] - The gross profit for the beer business was 10.34 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while EBIT reached 6.365 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.6% increase year-on-year [1][4] Business Segments - The white liquor business saw a revenue increase of 20.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid growth of core products [1][4] - The EBIT for the white liquor segment was 0.48 billion yuan, down 32.4% year-on-year, attributed to increased expenses and depreciation [1][4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting total revenues of 39.62 billion yuan, 40.59 billion yuan, and 42.03 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.431 billion yuan, 5.751 billion yuan, and 6.212 billion yuan [1][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13, 12, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.74 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared was 0.373 yuan per share, representing a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Beer Business Performance - The beer segment generated revenue of 22.57 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 1.4% year-on-year, with EBIT of 6.365 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. Adjusting for capacity optimization and employee compensation costs, EBIT would be 6.384 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year. Beer sales volume was 6.348 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year, with an average price of 3,554 yuan per ton, up 2.0% year-on-year. Premium and above beer sales saw over 10% growth, with brands like "Heineken," "Old Snow," and "Red Duke" achieving over 20% growth [3][4]. Baijiu Business Restructuring - The baijiu segment reported revenue of 1.18 billion yuan, a significant increase of 20.6% year-on-year, with EBITDA remaining stable at 41.3 million yuan. The company has actively restructured its baijiu business, focusing on brand renewal, price control, inventory management, and customer development. The national flagship product "Abstract" saw sales growth exceeding 50%, contributing approximately 70% to baijiu revenue [4][5]. Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company achieved a gross margin of 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with beer and baijiu segments reporting gross margins of 45.8% and 67.6%, respectively. The increase in gross margin is attributed to reduced cost pressures in the beer segment and improvements in the baijiu segment. The net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 19.9%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year. The interim dividend payout ratio increased from 20.1% to 25.7% [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 39.527 billion yuan, 41.367 billion yuan, and 42.842 billion yuan, respectively. EPS estimates for the same period have been revised to 1.62 yuan, 1.73 yuan, and 1.87 yuan. The PE ratios based on the closing price of 22.65 HKD per share are projected to be 13, 12, and 11 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - Despite facing pressure on beer sales in H1 2024, the company has managed to increase revenue per ton and maintain growth in EBITDA and profit margins [2][3] - The company is actively integrating its liquor business, aiming to create a dual empowerment model of "beer + liquor" [2][3] Summary by Sections Beer Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 22.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with sales volume at 6.348 million kiloliters, down 3.4% year-on-year [1] - The revenue per kiloliter increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with premium and above products showing single-digit growth despite a challenging macro environment [1][2] - E-commerce sales grew approximately 60% year-on-year, and high-end beer sales increased by over 10% [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 46.9%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in beer costs [2] - The company implemented cost control measures, resulting in stable operating expenses, and achieved an EBITDA of 4.13 billion yuan, maintaining year-on-year performance [2][3] Liquor Business Development - The liquor segment reported revenue of 1.178 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with a gross margin of 67.6% [2] - The company is focusing on product innovation and market integration following the acquisition of Guizhou Jinsha, aiming for sustained growth in the liquor business [2][3] Dividend and Earnings Forecast - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.373 yuan per share, a year-on-year increase of 29.97%, with a payout ratio of 25.72% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 1.69 yuan, 1.88 yuan, and 2.15 yuan respectively [3][4]

2024 年 8 月 20 日 华润啤酒（0291.HK） 上半年环境承压，业绩表现坚韧 华润啤酒（0291.HK）24 年上半年收入 237 亿人民币，同比微降 0.5%，净利润 47 亿， 同比增长 1.2%。上半年啤酒销量 634 万千升，同比下降 3.4%，每千升毛利增长 3.4%。 考虑到高端化进入后半段，未来增速放缓，我们下调 24/25/26 年净利润为 53.0/55.0/58.0 亿元。对应每 EPS 收益为 1.76/1.83/1.92 港元。维持"买入"评级，考虑当前港股市场情 绪，下调目标价至 35.8 港元，较当前股价有 58%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 消费环境承压，啤酒高端产品仍在增长。24 年上半年一方面消费意愿较为薄弱，尤其是 餐饮渠道需求不振，另一方面进入 6 月旺季全国天气较凉，影响啤酒消费。在此背景下， 整体销量下降 3.4%，但高档以上销量同比增长 10%，次高及以上产品销量同比个位数 增长，喜力、老雪、红爵增速超过 20%，中档以上销量占比超过 50%。销售单价同比增 长 2.6%，每千升毛利增长 3.4%。啤酒行业高端化的趋势不可逆转，消费者对于更高品 质产品的追求不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.67, 1.87, and 2.08 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [6][7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.744 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.705 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin improved to 46.91%, driven by structural upgrades in the beer and liquor businesses, alongside better raw material costs [4][5]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 22.566 billion yuan, down 1.43% year-on-year, with sales volume at 6.348 million tons, a decline of 3.39% [5]. - The liquor segment saw a revenue increase of 20.6% year-on-year, reaching 1.178 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 67.6% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 237.44 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a net profit of 47.05 billion yuan [4]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 46.91%, with a net profit margin of 19.82% [4]. Beer Segment - Revenue from the beer segment was 22.566 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 6.348 million tons [5]. - The average selling price per ton was 3,555 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.03% [5]. - The gross margin for the beer segment improved to 45.8% [5]. Liquor Segment - The liquor segment reported a revenue of 1.178 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [5]. - High-end liquor products contributed significantly to the revenue, with sales growth exceeding 50% year-on-year for key products [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved beer sales in the second half of 2024, with continued cost improvements expected [6]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 39.227 billion, 40.197 billion, and 41.209 billion yuan, with expected net profits of 5.404 billion, 6.066 billion, and 6.747 billion yuan respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 23.74 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.71 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.2% year-on-year [1]. - The beer business continues to trend towards premiumization, with revenue of 22.6 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 1.4% year-on-year, but with an EBITDA of 6.37 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The volume sold decreased by 3.4%, while the price per ton increased by 2.0% [1]. - The white liquor segment showed a strong recovery with revenue of 1.18 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 67.6%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points [1]. - The overall profitability improved, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points, driven by higher margins in the beer segment and an increased share of the white liquor business [1]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.44 billion yuan, 6.17 billion yuan, and 6.79 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing growth rates of 6%, 13%, and 10% [2]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13x, 12x, and 11x, respectively, indicating that the current valuation is at a historical low [2]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.37 yuan per share, a 30% increase year-on-year, reflecting strong cash flow and stable operations [2].