海通国际发表报告，预测腾讯第三季收入按年升14%至1900亿元，非国际财务报告准则(non-IFRS)经营 溢利料按年升19%至730亿元。该行下调公司第三季游戏和金融科技及企业服务毛利率预测至按季持 平，基于《三角洲行动》游戏或因版权分享导致毛利率较低，以及非支付金融科技业务及电商费用毛利 率改善，遭收入组合转向云业务所抵销。该行轻微上调对腾讯季度销售及推广开支预测，基于游戏推广 活动大量创新。该行维持腾讯"优于大市"评级及700港元的目标价。 ...

Core Insights - The AI sector has seen significant investment from major companies over the past two years, but the question remains: who is actually profiting from these investments? [1] - The industry is experiencing a divide, with a few companies leveraging AI for growth while many others are still in the investment phase, often operating at a loss. [1] Monetization Paths - There are four primary monetization models for AI: 1. **Model as Product**: Directly targeting consumers with AI applications, primarily through subscription services, but facing high competition and low user retention. [3] 2. **Model as Service**: Providing AI model access or custom development via cloud platforms, which is currently the most mature monetization path due to clear enterprise demand. [3] 3. **AI as Function**: Integrating AI into existing business operations to enhance efficiency, indirectly contributing to profits without generating direct AI revenue. [3] 4. **"Selling Shovels" Model**: Offering computational infrastructure, which requires substantial investment and has a long return cycle. [3] Market Segmentation - The market has formed a clear tiered structure based on commercialization progress: - **First Tier**: Companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei, where AI has become a significant growth driver. For instance, Baidu's non-ad revenue grew by 40% year-on-year in Q1 2025, largely due to AI cloud services. [5] - **Second Tier**: Companies such as Kuaishou and Meitu, which have successfully utilized AI to enhance their core offerings, with Kuaishou's AI video generation tool generating over 150 million yuan in Q1. [5] - **Third Tier**: Companies like iFlytek and Kunlun Wanwei, which have AI products but are still in the investment phase, facing losses while seeking growth. [5] Investment Landscape - Despite some companies generating revenue from AI, the overall industry is characterized by investments significantly outpacing returns. Major firms like Tencent and Alibaba are investing hundreds of billions annually, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion yuan in AI and cloud computing over the next three years. [6] - The profitability of AI is challenged by the rise of open-source models, which are diminishing the premium advantage of closed-source models. Currently, few companies can achieve positive cash flow solely from AI operations. [6] Strategic Importance - AI is viewed as a critical competitive race, essential for companies to secure their future, even if it does not provide immediate financial returns. Companies are investing today to gain future opportunities, with the effectiveness of these investments only becoming clear over time. [8]

Core Insights - The article reflects on the evolution of Tencent and the media landscape over the past 15 years, highlighting a shift from critical journalism to a more protective stance by companies against negative press [1][5] - It emphasizes the need for a balanced media environment where criticism is allowed, contrasting it with the current trend of companies suppressing dissenting voices under the guise of maintaining a healthy business environment [5] Group 1: Media and Corporate Dynamics - The article recalls a pivotal moment in 2010 when a critical piece on Tencent prompted the company to reflect on its closed-off approach, leading to a strategic transformation [1] - There is a noted decline in critical media coverage, with an increase in corporate flattery and a rise in lawsuits against media outlets for negative reporting [2][3] - Companies have grown significantly in size and influence, yet they seem less tolerant of criticism, often labeling it as slander [3][5] Group 2: Corporate Behavior and Public Relations - The existence of "black public relations" is acknowledged, but the article argues that the real issue lies in companies' internal conflicts and their inability to accept criticism [4][9] - Many companies use the pretext of protecting the business environment to eliminate dissent, while simultaneously engaging in misleading practices against competitors [4][9] - The article warns against a corporate culture that only allows praise and silences criticism, questioning the sustainability of such an environment [5]

Core Insights - The overall AI IaaS market in China is expected to grow by 122.4% year-on-year, reaching a market size of 19.87 billion RMB by the first half of 2025 [1] - The GenAI IaaS market is projected to grow by 219.3%, with a market size of 16.68 billion RMB, while the Other AI IaaS market is expected to decline by 14.1%, reaching 3.19 billion RMB [1] Market Overview - The AI IaaS market is experiencing explosive growth, driven by strong demand across various sectors including internet, automotive, mobile manufacturing, finance, and government [5] - Cloud service providers have significantly increased capital investment in AI infrastructure, leading to stable resource supply and pricing in the computing market [5] - The demand for intelligent computing and AI applications is rising, particularly in the automotive sector, where competition for autonomous driving solutions is intensifying [5] GenAI IaaS Market Dynamics - The focus in the GenAI IaaS market is shifting from large-scale model training to inference, with inference scenarios accounting for 42% of the market share in the first half of the year [6] - The DeepSeek event has positively impacted the market, with significant deployments in state-owned enterprises and government sectors nearing completion [6] - Major enterprises are beginning to test generative AI applications within their business systems, indicating a shift towards more diverse AI applications [6] Supply Landscape - The supply landscape is evolving towards a diversified ecosystem, with cloud vendors and leading computing clients focusing on optimizing inference service cost structures [7] - Domestic and international cloud computing companies are increasingly investing in self-developed chips, signaling a new growth phase for domestic computing resources [7] Competitive Landscape - The GenAI IaaS market share has risen to 84%, while the Other AI IaaS market share has dropped to 16%, indicating a concentration of market power [9] - Alibaba Cloud maintains the largest market share by increasing capital expenditure on AI infrastructure and offering diverse AI IaaS services [9] - Other players like ByteDance's Volcano Engine and Baidu are also expanding their market presence through competitive pricing and technological advantages [9] Operator Developments - Major telecom operators are rapidly deploying intelligent computing resources, with significant growth in AI-related business [10] - China Telecom is building a distributed intelligent computing network, while China Mobile and China Unicom are enhancing their AI capabilities and service offerings [10] Future Projections - The AI IaaS market in China is expected to continue its rapid growth, potentially reaching nearly 150 billion RMB by 2029, with inference computing accounting for nearly 80% of the market [12] - Technological advancements in multi-modal models and video generation models are anticipated to drive new AI applications and further increase demand for AI computing resources [12]

Core Insights - In September, ByteDance led the overseas revenue ranking for non-gaming companies, followed by Ruiqi Software and Huanyou Group (NASDAQ: YY) [3][4] - The overall trend indicates a concentration of revenue among top-tier companies, while mid-tier companies generally experienced declines [3][4] - Notable revenue growth was observed for companies like Hehe Information (SH: 688615), Dandu Technology, and Xingyin Technology, with the latter's app "Xiaohongshu" achieving over 13.7% month-on-month revenue growth [3][4] Non-Gaming Companies - ByteDance maintained a significant lead in overseas revenue, with Ruiqi Software and Huanyou Group closely following [3] - Xiaomi (HK: 01810) and Kingsoft (HK: 03888) were the only mid-tier companies to report revenue growth, with Xiaomi's "Xiaomi Home" app seeing over 3% month-on-month growth [4] - Appxy and Xiaoying Technology also reported slight revenue increases of 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, while other companies faced varying degrees of decline [4] Gaming Companies - The mobile gaming market continued to cool down in September, leading to noticeable revenue declines for many domestic companies [6][7] - miHoYo's flagship game "Genshin Impact" saw nearly a doubling of revenue due to the 6.0 version update, resulting in over 19.4% month-on-month growth [7] - Lemon Microfun's revenue increased by over 8.8%, driven by new and existing products, with significant contributions from themed events [7][8] Mid-Tier Gaming Companies - Kuro Game's "Wuthering Waves" achieved over 43.3% month-on-month revenue growth following a successful update and new character introduction [8] - New products from NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) showed strong revenue potential but only partially offset overall declines [8] - BeheFun's game "Top Tycoon: Coin Theme Empire" reported over 34.8% revenue growth, while LuZhu Games and Glacier Network made a return to the rankings [9]

Core Insights - Shenzhen has transformed from a small border town into a modern international metropolis with a population of nearly 20 million and a GDP growth from 270 million to 3.68 trillion yuan over 45 years [1][2][5] - The city is home to 12 national high-tech enterprises per square kilometer, the highest density in the country, and has nurtured global giants like Huawei, BYD, and Tencent, along with 1,025 national-level specialized "little giants" [2][6] - Shenzhen's development is characterized by a strong culture of innovation and reform, with a commitment to high-quality growth and a focus on attracting and retaining talent [20][24] Economic Growth - Shenzhen's GDP has seen significant milestones, breaking the 100 billion yuan mark in 1996, 1 trillion in 2010, and reaching 3.68 trillion in 2024 [5][6] - The city's industrial output value increased by 4.4% year-on-year from January to August 2025, with high-tech products like drones and industrial robots experiencing rapid growth [6][19] Innovation and Technology - Huawei's projected sales revenue for 2024 is 862.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.4% year-on-year increase, with a strong focus on R&D, which accounts for over 20% of its annual revenue [4][19] - Shenzhen's R&D investment reached 243.64 billion yuan in 2024, ranking second among major cities in China, with over 90% of R&D activities conducted by enterprises [19][20] Talent Attraction and Retention - Shenzhen has implemented various initiatives to attract talent, including free accommodation for job-seeking graduates and support for entrepreneurial teams, particularly from Hong Kong and Macau [23][24] - The city boasts a talent pool of 7 million, including 26,200 high-level professionals and 920 scholars listed among the top 2% of scientists globally [24][25] Special Economic Zones and Reforms - The Qianhai area, known as the "special zone within a special zone," has seen its GDP grow from 175.7 billion yuan in 2021 to 300.8 billion yuan in 2024, showcasing its role as a testing ground for reforms [10][11] - Shenzhen's commitment to innovation is evident in its continuous exploration of government-market relations and the establishment of a series of institutional innovations that have been replicated nationwide [11][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US and China are set to return to the negotiation table, which has positively impacted stock markets, with US stocks rising and Hong Kong stocks opening higher [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159960) increased by 1.60%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as China Life (02628) up 6.21%, SMIC (00981) up 4.39%, and Xpeng Motors-W (09868) up 4.18% [1] - The US President has identified three major issues for negotiation: rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans, while the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized the need for equal and respectful negotiations [1] Group 2 - According to China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a period of volatility before a potential upward trend, driven by factors such as continuous innovation in the Chinese tech industry and a low probability of high tariffs being implemented [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party discussing the "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to boost risk appetite among investors [1] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to lead to sustained capital inflows, improving fundamentals and profit expectations, which may drive a slow bull market trend in Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 3 - The Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF closely tracks the performance of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which includes all H-share companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - As of October 20, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index include Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and China Construction Bank (00939), collectively accounting for 55.33% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance on October 21, with the three major indices rising, particularly in the computer sector [1] - The Computer ETF (159998) increased by 0.39%, with notable gains from stocks like Jiangbolong, which rose over 3%, and other companies such as Zhongke Ruifeng and Keda Xunfei also showing positive movement [1] - The Cloud Computing ETF (517390) experienced a significant increase of 2%, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang rising over 5% and Alibaba-W increasing over 3% [1] Group 2 - The National Taxation Administration reported that the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with computer communication equipment and industrial mother machines seeing increases of 13.5% and 11.8% respectively [2] - At the 2025 Brain-Computer Interface and MRI Summit, the world's first customized brain-computer interaction MRI platform "Shengong-Shengguan" was officially launched [2] - Alibaba Cloud's "Aegaeon" solution was selected for the top academic conference SOSP2025, demonstrating a significant reduction in the required number of NVIDIA H20 GPUs from 1192 to 213, a decrease of 82% [2] - Recent market sentiment has shown a decline in risk appetite, with the computer sector's previous gains being relatively modest, leading to improved cost-effectiveness for core leading companies in the sector [2] - It is suggested to focus on the third-quarter reports for short-term investment opportunities and to pay attention to high-quality stocks with marginal changes [2]

Group 1 - OpenAI has tightened regulations on its AI video generation application Sora to prevent deepfake content, collaborating with actor Bryan Cranston and the SAG-AFTRA union [1] - As of October 20, 2025, the CSI Online Consumption Theme Index (931481) rose by 1.47%, with notable increases in stocks such as Bilibili-W (6.88%) and Kuaishou-W (3.04%) [1] - The CSI Online Consumption ETF (159793) increased by 1.60%, reaching a latest price of 1.08 yuan, and has seen a cumulative rise of 10.95% over the past three months [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Online Consumption Theme Index accounted for 55.76% of the index, including Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Kuaishou-W [2] - The weight and performance of key stocks in the index include Tencent Holdings (1.35%), Alibaba-W (3.03%), and Meituan-W (1.60%) [4]

Tencent Holdings Ltd. 3Q25 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings Ltd. - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$749.87 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$700.00 Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Forecasted to grow by 13% YoY - **Non-IFRS Operating Profit Growth**: Expected to increase by 18% YoY - **Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: Estimated at Rmb320 billion for 2025-27 Revenue Breakdown - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: Revenue increased by 13% YoY, with online games growing by 18% - Domestic games: +13% - International games: +30% - **Marketing Services**: Revenue growth of 20% YoY, driven by AI ad-tech upgrades - **FinTech and Business Services (FBS)**: Revenue growth of 10%, with FinTech growing by 6% and Business Services by 22% [2][3][4][9] Core Insights - **Gaming Performance**: Strong performance from evergreen games and new launches, with Delta Force achieving record grossing during its anniversary event [2] - **AI Adoption**: Early AI adoption in marketing services is yielding high ROI, with improved click-through rates and user engagement [3] - **Cloud Services**: Despite prioritizing internal AI applications, demand for cloud services is expected to drive revenue growth, albeit at a slower pace compared to competitors [4] Financial Projections - **2025-27 Non-IFRS Operating Profit**: Increased by 1-2% due to higher revenues from games and marketing [5][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected to rise from Rmb20.63 in 2024 to Rmb30.70 by 2027 [7][19] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Valuation Methodology**: Price target based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with a DCF value of HK$612/share for core businesses and HK$88/share for associate investments [16][20] - **Investment Drivers**: Globalization of gaming, higher social ad monetization, and strategic upgrades in consumer and industrial Internet [27] - **Risks**: Competition in social networks and gaming, regulatory challenges, and potential impacts from US-China tensions [36] Additional Insights - **Market Position**: Tencent is positioned as a leader in China's online consumer market, with most services ranking in the top three by user base [27] - **Share Buybacks**: Recent buybacks are expected to support share price stability [28] - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Continued expansion in the Industrial Internet and AI applications is anticipated to drive future growth [35] Conclusion Tencent Holdings Ltd. is expected to maintain solid growth across all business segments, driven by strong performance in gaming, marketing, and cloud services. The company's strategic focus on AI and capital management positions it well for future opportunities, despite facing competitive and regulatory challenges. The current price target reflects a favorable outlook for investors.