Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with an 18% increase in non-IFRS operating profit, indicating potential growth in gaming and advertising sectors, and a likely expansion in profit margins [1] Financial Performance - Tencent's Q3 revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to rise by 18% [1] Business Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, setting a target price of HKD 700, continuing to view it as a preferred stock [1] - The firm has raised its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts for Tencent for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2% [1] - Anticipated capital expenditure for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at RMB 320 billion [1] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to demonstrate robust growth across all business segments, supported by positive operating leverage, limited competition, and strong capital management and execution capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with an 18% increase in non-IFRS operating profit, highlighting potential growth in gaming and advertising sectors, and suggesting that profit margins may continue to expand [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, setting a target price of HKD 700, continuing to position it as a preferred stock [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts for Tencent for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2% [1] - The expected capital expenditure for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be RMB 320 billion [1] Group 2: Business Outlook - The firm is optimistic about Tencent's robust growth across all business segments, citing positive operating leverage, limited competition, and strong capital management and execution capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Tencent possesses the best investment portfolio in China's internet industry, highlighting its AI-driven growth potential, stable competitive landscape, and attractive shareholder returns under appealing valuations [1] Group 1: Investment Potential - Tencent is viewed as a major beneficiary of AI applications and monetization in China, with expectations for accelerated growth in advertising and cloud revenue, validating the benefits of AI technology on its core business [1] - The integration of AI functionalities into WeChat, such as AI agents directly recommending services and products, is anticipated to drive a re-rating of the stock price in the medium term [1] Group 2: Ratings and Price Target - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent, raising the target price from HKD 690 to HKD 780 [1]

10月21日，腾讯QQ发布2025年第三季度QQ平台生态治 理公告。数据显示，2025年第三季度，QQ累计打击账号 270万个，加强对未成年人用户的保护，并针对网络侵 害、网络诈骗、"喷系文化"等有害内容进行重点治理， 持续关注打击平台内各类违法、不良行为。 在网络诈骗治理方面，第三季度，QQ累计处置诈骗账号及群组250万个，持续维护清朗安全的网络空 间。 为了加强未成年人的保护，QQ第三季度清理处置相关违 规内容15万余条，共计封禁账号及群组6千余个。 清理内容400余单。 "喷系文化"指通过建立特定群组或频道，有组织地实施 肆意辱骂、人身攻击、有偿删帖等行为。不仅严重侵害 受害者合法权益，对其心理健康造成伤害，也严重扰乱 了平台健康的交流秩序，破坏社会文明氛围。为了打 击"喷系文化"，QQ第三季度封禁账号及群组600余个， ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts Tencent's Q3 revenue to grow by 13% year-on-year, with non-IFRS operating profit expected to rise by 18%, indicating potential growth in gaming and advertising sectors, and a continued expansion in profit margins [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tencent, setting a target price of HKD 700, and continues to list it as a preferred stock [1] - The firm has raised its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts for Tencent for the years 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 2% [1] - Capital expenditure for Tencent is projected to be HKD 320 billion from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - The firm is optimistic about Tencent's robust growth across all business segments, positive operating leverage, limited competition, and strong capital management and execution capabilities [1]

海通国际发表报告，预测腾讯第三季收入按年升14%至1900亿元，非国际财务报告准则(non-IFRS)经营 溢利料按年升19%至730亿元。该行下调公司第三季游戏和金融科技及企业服务毛利率预测至按季持 平，基于《三角洲行动》游戏或因版权分享导致毛利率较低，以及非支付金融科技业务及电商费用毛利 率改善，遭收入组合转向云业务所抵销。该行轻微上调对腾讯季度销售及推广开支预测，基于游戏推广 活动大量创新。该行维持腾讯"优于大市"评级及700港元的目标价。 ...

Core Insights - The AI sector has seen significant investment from major companies over the past two years, but the question remains: who is actually profiting from these investments? [1] - The industry is experiencing a divide, with a few companies leveraging AI for growth while many others are still in the investment phase, often operating at a loss. [1] Monetization Paths - There are four primary monetization models for AI: 1. **Model as Product**: Directly targeting consumers with AI applications, primarily through subscription services, but facing high competition and low user retention. [3] 2. **Model as Service**: Providing AI model access or custom development via cloud platforms, which is currently the most mature monetization path due to clear enterprise demand. [3] 3. **AI as Function**: Integrating AI into existing business operations to enhance efficiency, indirectly contributing to profits without generating direct AI revenue. [3] 4. **"Selling Shovels" Model**: Offering computational infrastructure, which requires substantial investment and has a long return cycle. [3] Market Segmentation - The market has formed a clear tiered structure based on commercialization progress: - **First Tier**: Companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei, where AI has become a significant growth driver. For instance, Baidu's non-ad revenue grew by 40% year-on-year in Q1 2025, largely due to AI cloud services. [5] - **Second Tier**: Companies such as Kuaishou and Meitu, which have successfully utilized AI to enhance their core offerings, with Kuaishou's AI video generation tool generating over 150 million yuan in Q1. [5] - **Third Tier**: Companies like iFlytek and Kunlun Wanwei, which have AI products but are still in the investment phase, facing losses while seeking growth. [5] Investment Landscape - Despite some companies generating revenue from AI, the overall industry is characterized by investments significantly outpacing returns. Major firms like Tencent and Alibaba are investing hundreds of billions annually, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion yuan in AI and cloud computing over the next three years. [6] - The profitability of AI is challenged by the rise of open-source models, which are diminishing the premium advantage of closed-source models. Currently, few companies can achieve positive cash flow solely from AI operations. [6] Strategic Importance - AI is viewed as a critical competitive race, essential for companies to secure their future, even if it does not provide immediate financial returns. Companies are investing today to gain future opportunities, with the effectiveness of these investments only becoming clear over time. [8]

Core Insights - The article reflects on the evolution of Tencent and the media landscape over the past 15 years, highlighting a shift from critical journalism to a more protective stance by companies against negative press [1][5] - It emphasizes the need for a balanced media environment where criticism is allowed, contrasting it with the current trend of companies suppressing dissenting voices under the guise of maintaining a healthy business environment [5] Group 1: Media and Corporate Dynamics - The article recalls a pivotal moment in 2010 when a critical piece on Tencent prompted the company to reflect on its closed-off approach, leading to a strategic transformation [1] - There is a noted decline in critical media coverage, with an increase in corporate flattery and a rise in lawsuits against media outlets for negative reporting [2][3] - Companies have grown significantly in size and influence, yet they seem less tolerant of criticism, often labeling it as slander [3][5] Group 2: Corporate Behavior and Public Relations - The existence of "black public relations" is acknowledged, but the article argues that the real issue lies in companies' internal conflicts and their inability to accept criticism [4][9] - Many companies use the pretext of protecting the business environment to eliminate dissent, while simultaneously engaging in misleading practices against competitors [4][9] - The article warns against a corporate culture that only allows praise and silences criticism, questioning the sustainability of such an environment [5]

Core Insights - The overall AI IaaS market in China is expected to grow by 122.4% year-on-year, reaching a market size of 19.87 billion RMB by the first half of 2025 [1] - The GenAI IaaS market is projected to grow by 219.3%, with a market size of 16.68 billion RMB, while the Other AI IaaS market is expected to decline by 14.1%, reaching 3.19 billion RMB [1] Market Overview - The AI IaaS market is experiencing explosive growth, driven by strong demand across various sectors including internet, automotive, mobile manufacturing, finance, and government [5] - Cloud service providers have significantly increased capital investment in AI infrastructure, leading to stable resource supply and pricing in the computing market [5] - The demand for intelligent computing and AI applications is rising, particularly in the automotive sector, where competition for autonomous driving solutions is intensifying [5] GenAI IaaS Market Dynamics - The focus in the GenAI IaaS market is shifting from large-scale model training to inference, with inference scenarios accounting for 42% of the market share in the first half of the year [6] - The DeepSeek event has positively impacted the market, with significant deployments in state-owned enterprises and government sectors nearing completion [6] - Major enterprises are beginning to test generative AI applications within their business systems, indicating a shift towards more diverse AI applications [6] Supply Landscape - The supply landscape is evolving towards a diversified ecosystem, with cloud vendors and leading computing clients focusing on optimizing inference service cost structures [7] - Domestic and international cloud computing companies are increasingly investing in self-developed chips, signaling a new growth phase for domestic computing resources [7] Competitive Landscape - The GenAI IaaS market share has risen to 84%, while the Other AI IaaS market share has dropped to 16%, indicating a concentration of market power [9] - Alibaba Cloud maintains the largest market share by increasing capital expenditure on AI infrastructure and offering diverse AI IaaS services [9] - Other players like ByteDance's Volcano Engine and Baidu are also expanding their market presence through competitive pricing and technological advantages [9] Operator Developments - Major telecom operators are rapidly deploying intelligent computing resources, with significant growth in AI-related business [10] - China Telecom is building a distributed intelligent computing network, while China Mobile and China Unicom are enhancing their AI capabilities and service offerings [10] Future Projections - The AI IaaS market in China is expected to continue its rapid growth, potentially reaching nearly 150 billion RMB by 2029, with inference computing accounting for nearly 80% of the market [12] - Technological advancements in multi-modal models and video generation models are anticipated to drive new AI applications and further increase demand for AI computing resources [12]

Core Insights - In September, ByteDance led the overseas revenue ranking for non-gaming companies, followed by Ruiqi Software and Huanyou Group (NASDAQ: YY) [3][4] - The overall trend indicates a concentration of revenue among top-tier companies, while mid-tier companies generally experienced declines [3][4] - Notable revenue growth was observed for companies like Hehe Information (SH: 688615), Dandu Technology, and Xingyin Technology, with the latter's app "Xiaohongshu" achieving over 13.7% month-on-month revenue growth [3][4] Non-Gaming Companies - ByteDance maintained a significant lead in overseas revenue, with Ruiqi Software and Huanyou Group closely following [3] - Xiaomi (HK: 01810) and Kingsoft (HK: 03888) were the only mid-tier companies to report revenue growth, with Xiaomi's "Xiaomi Home" app seeing over 3% month-on-month growth [4] - Appxy and Xiaoying Technology also reported slight revenue increases of 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, while other companies faced varying degrees of decline [4] Gaming Companies - The mobile gaming market continued to cool down in September, leading to noticeable revenue declines for many domestic companies [6][7] - miHoYo's flagship game "Genshin Impact" saw nearly a doubling of revenue due to the 6.0 version update, resulting in over 19.4% month-on-month growth [7] - Lemon Microfun's revenue increased by over 8.8%, driven by new and existing products, with significant contributions from themed events [7][8] Mid-Tier Gaming Companies - Kuro Game's "Wuthering Waves" achieved over 43.3% month-on-month revenue growth following a successful update and new character introduction [8] - New products from NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) showed strong revenue potential but only partially offset overall declines [8] - BeheFun's game "Top Tycoon: Coin Theme Empire" reported over 34.8% revenue growth, while LuZhu Games and Glacier Network made a return to the rankings [9]