Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines (00753) is expected to report significant losses in 2025, with net losses projected between RMB 1.3 billion and RMB 1.9 billion, indicating a challenging financial outlook for the company [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company anticipates a net loss of RMB 237 million, with a net loss of RMB 2.54 billion after excluding non-recurring items [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a cumulative net profit of RMB 1.87 billion, but is projected to incur a loss of RMB 3.17 billion to RMB 3.77 billion in Q4 2025 [1] - The Q4 2025 loss is expected to be larger compared to the same period in 2024, where the net profit was reported at a loss of RMB 1.6 billion [1] Tax Asset Review - The anticipated increase in losses for Q4 2025 is attributed to the company's review of the carrying value of deferred tax assets, leading to a reversal of some deferred tax assets [1]

此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel rush is expected to reach a record high with 9.5 billion trips, prompting Air China to enhance capacity and services to meet diverse travel demands in Sichuan province [1][4]. Group 1: Travel Volume and Capacity - The Spring Festival travel period will start on February 2, 2026, lasting for 40 days, with a projected 9.5 billion trips, marking a historical peak in cross-regional population movement [1]. - Air China plans to operate 19,407 flights from Chengdu during the Spring Festival, an 11.2% increase year-on-year, averaging 485 flights per day [4]. Group 2: Route Optimization and Service Enhancements - Key routes with increased capacity include Chengdu to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, with additional flights to warm destinations like Dali and winter tourism spots in Northeast China [4]. - Air China is optimizing its route layout, including adjustments to flights from Chengdu to Shanghai and adding new routes to Nanjing and other domestic and international destinations [4][11]. Group 3: Special Products and Promotions - Air China has launched various special products to cater to different travel needs, including the "Yifei Changyou Card" for senior travelers, offering unlimited travel options on domestic and international routes [11]. - The company is also promoting a limited edition "Phoenix Loyalty Night Reading Calendar" gift box, which includes travel discounts and commemorative items, available for purchase through the Air China app [11].

Major Events - Lanke Technology (06809) will conduct an IPO from January 30 to February 4, with an expected listing on February 9 [1] - Aixin Yuanzhi (00600) will conduct an IPO from January 30 to February 5, with an expected listing on February 10 [1] - Lexin Outdoor (02720) will conduct an IPO from January 31 to February 5, raising HKD 130 million from Horizon Capital and Huangshan Dejun [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (09980) sets the offer price at HKD 248 per share [1] - Zhonghui Biotech-B (02627) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for a trivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine [1] - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical (00867) received approval for the first and only targeted drug for vitiligo treatment in China [1] - Shishi Pharmaceutical Group (02005) received production registration for Propafenone Hydrochloride Injection from the National Medical Products Administration [1] - China Aluminum (02600) plans to jointly acquire 68.6% of Brazilian Aluminum from Rio Tinto and will initiate a mandatory offer [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) plans to transfer 100% equity of Inner Mongolia Xintai Coal [1] - Botai Car Union (02889) plans to collaborate with Ping An Property & Casualty to reconstruct the smart travel insurance ecosystem [1] - Jin Jing New Energy (01783) signed a strategic framework agreement with Tianqi Grand for lithium battery recycling and precious metal extraction [1] - Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Holdings (01396) subsidiary Hongce Data introduces Fudian Capital as a strategic investor for 40% equity [1] - China Mobile (00941), China Unicom (00762), and China Telecom (00728) will adjust the applicable scope of value-added tax for telecom services [1] Operating Performance - BYD Company (01211) sold approximately 210,000 new energy vehicles in January [2] - Geely Automobile (00175) reported total vehicle sales of 270,200 units in January, a year-on-year increase of about 1% [2] - Chery Automobile (09973) saw total sales of 191,500 vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of about 10.7% [2] - Seres (09927) reported total vehicle sales of 45,900 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 104.85% [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) sold approximately 90,300 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 11.59% [2] - Li Auto-W (02015) delivered 27,668 new vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [2] - NIO-SW (09866) delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 96.1% [2] - GAC Group (02238) reported vehicle sales of 116,600 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 18.47% [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) released a preliminary report indicating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.912 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71% [2] - Shandong Gold (01787) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.6 billion to 4.9 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56% to 66% [2] Earnings Forecast - SF Express (09699) expects a year-on-year profit increase of no less than 80% for 2025 [3] - China International Capital Corporation (03908) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85% [3] - China Shenhua (01088) expects a year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025 [3] - Datang Power (00991) anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.8 billion to 7.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 51% to 73% [3] - China Southern Airlines (01055) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, turning a profit [3] - Air China (00753) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - GAC Group (02238) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - Ansteel (00347) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.077 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year narrowing of 42.75% [3] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 873 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 31.85% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Haicheng Co. due to its focus on smart logistics [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints ease, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. - The dry bulk shipping index (BDI) increased by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk demand [34]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, with domestic routes showing strong performance [53]. - Major airlines are expected to improve profitability, with China National Airlines and Southern Airlines highlighted for their potential [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year in December 2025, while road freight volume showed a slight increase of 0.62% [72]. - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 3.32% decrease week-on-week [34]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Holding for its valuation and resilience, and in Haicheng Co. for its smart logistics initiatives [2][3]. - The aviation sector is also recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China National Aviation (601111) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of between -1.3 billion to -1.9 billion in 2025, compared to a loss of -237 million in 2024. The adjusted net loss is projected to be between -1.9 billion to -2.7 billion, compared to -2.54 billion in 2024 [1] - The anticipated net loss for Q4 2025 is between -3.17 billion to -3.77 billion, compared to -1.6 billion in Q4 2024. The adjusted net loss for Q4 2025 is expected to be between -3.54 billion to -4.34 billion, compared to -2.97 billion in Q4 2024 [1] - The net loss is attributed to the reversal of deferred tax assets, which increased tax expenses, although operational performance continues to improve, indicating a positive outlook for the industry supply-demand dynamics [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 166.7 billion, with a growth rate of 18.1%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 170.1 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 2.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -237 million in 2024, -1.6 billion in 2025, and is expected to turn positive in 2026 with a profit of 6.08 billion [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -0.01 in 2024, -0.09 in 2025, and is expected to improve to 0.35 in 2026 and 0.52 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -611 in 2024, -90 in 2025, and then improve to 24 in 2026 and 16 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected at 3.2 for 2024, 3.3 for 2025, and is expected to decrease to 2.9 in 2026 and 2.5 in 2027 [3] Market Performance - The report indicates that the airline sector is expected to see continued improvement in operational metrics, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and a 5.9% increase in Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) [7] - The passenger load factor reached 81.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery [7] - The report highlights that the upcoming peak travel season is expected to drive further demand, with average ticket prices showing a positive trend [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvement in profitability by 2025, with a continuous increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, indicating a strong performance in peak seasons. Airlines are projected to reduce losses significantly in 2025, with Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines forecasting net profits of -1.6 billion, -1.6 billion, 0.9 billion, and 2.0 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a reduction in losses [3][4]. - The oil shipping sector anticipates a substantial increase in profitability in Q1 2026, driven by rising oil production in the Middle East and South America, as well as changes in import regulations from India. The report highlights a bullish outlook for the oil shipping market, suggesting a super bull market is on the horizon [3][4]. - The railway sector plans for a 3.5% increase in passenger flow in 2026, with recent adjustments to train schedules increasing the number of scheduled passenger trains by 2%. The report notes that the railway network has expanded significantly, enhancing connectivity across major urban areas [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a 5% year-on-year increase in civil aviation passenger volume for 2025, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow by 4% and international passenger volume by 22% [6][9]. - The Spring Festival demand is anticipated to remain strong, with an estimated 10% year-on-year increase in passenger flow during the holiday period [4]. Oil Shipping - The report indicates that the average earnings for oil tankers are expected to increase significantly, with the TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for VLCCs on the Middle East to China route rising to 123,000 USD, reflecting a robust demand outlook [4][5]. Railway - The railway sector's operational capacity has expanded, with over 165,000 kilometers of operational railways, including more than 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. The report estimates that the number of passengers transported by rail will reach 4.402 billion in 2026, marking a new high [4].

中国国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空近日公布2025年年度业绩预告。报告期内，国 航、东航、南航三大航共减亏32.59亿至45.59亿元。南航和海航预计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利 润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 具体来看，中国国航预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13亿元到 人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27亿元。 中国东航预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。预计2025年度归属于上市 公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约为人民币-27亿元至-33亿元。2025年，中国东航全年完成运输 总周转量279.81亿吨公里，旅客运输量近1.50亿人次，分别同比增长10.82%和6.68%，利润总额预计为 人民币2亿元至3亿元。 据南方航空公告，预计公司2025年度将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币8.00 亿元到人民币10.00亿元。对于业绩预增的原因，公告称，南方航空积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精 准投放运力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...