Group 1 - The top three companies with net inflow of southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 1.954 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 638 million, and China Construction Bank (00939) with 358 million [1][2] - The top three companies with net outflow of southbound funds are China Mobile (00941) with -883 million, Zijin Mining (02899) with -450 million, and Innovent Biologics (01801) with -435 million [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, ICBC South China (03167) leads with 100.00%, followed by 361 Degrees (01361) with 78.85%, and Qin Port Co. (03369) with 67.10% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten companies by net inflow include Alibaba-W (09988) with 1.954 billion and a closing price of 164.600, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with 638 million and a closing price of 622.000 [2] - The top ten companies by net outflow include China Mobile (00941) with -883 million and a closing price of 80.600, and Zijin Mining (02899) with -450 million and a closing price of 40.000 [2] - The top three companies by net inflow ratio also include South China Airlines (01055) with 59.53% and a closing price of 5.630 [3]

Core Insights - The winter ice and snow economy is becoming a significant driver for consumption upgrades, regional development, and industrial integration, supported by innovative financial services from banks [1] Group 1: Financial Support for the Ice and Snow Economy - Banks are embedding services throughout the entire ice and snow economy chain, providing differentiated financial support tailored to various segments such as infrastructure, equipment manufacturing, and tourism [2] - Construction Bank's Heilongjiang branch has provided billions in loans for major infrastructure projects to enhance tourism connectivity between key ice and snow attractions [2] - Agricultural Bank of China quickly issued a 2.73 million yuan loan to a local beverage company facing cash flow issues during peak tourism season, demonstrating the banks' responsiveness to small and micro enterprises [2][3] Group 2: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - Small and micro enterprises are crucial to the ice and snow economy, with Construction Bank providing over 100 million yuan in credit support to more than 130 hotels and restaurants in Heilongjiang since 2025 [3] - Financial institutions are actively identifying and addressing the funding needs of local businesses, ensuring they can upgrade facilities and meet increased demand during the winter season [3] Group 3: Consumer Experience and Payment Solutions - Banks are enhancing consumer experiences by integrating financial services into consumption scenarios, such as the "Love Ice and Snow Carnival" campaign by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which offers discounts to stimulate spending [4] - Agricultural Bank and Construction Bank have established "Ice and Snow Stations" to provide free services like hot drinks and luggage storage, improving visitor satisfaction [5][6] - The introduction of comprehensive payment solutions, including support for international card payments, aims to accommodate diverse consumer payment preferences [5] Group 4: Future Projections and Strategic Directions - The "China Ice and Snow Tourism Development Report (2026)" predicts that ice and snow tourism will attract 360 million visitors and generate 450 billion yuan in revenue during the 2025-2026 winter season [6] - Financial institutions are encouraged to leverage technology and green finance to support high-tech equipment production and eco-tourism projects, enhancing the overall ice and snow industry [6]

Core Insights - The average cost of personal deposits is a key indicator of banks' liability costs, with lower rates indicating stronger competitiveness in attracting deposits [1][7]. Group 1: Ranking of Banks by Deposit Cost - The banks with the lowest average cost of personal deposits are primarily state-owned large banks and some retail-focused joint-stock banks, with China Merchants Bank leading at 1.18% for the 2025 mid-year report [2][8]. - Following China Merchants Bank are China Postal Savings Bank at 1.23% and Agricultural Bank of China at 1.38%, benefiting from extensive branch networks and strong customer bases [2][8]. - The top six banks all have costs below 2%, indicating strong deposit cost control capabilities [2][8]. Group 2: Cost Trends and Observations - A notable trend is the general decline in average deposit costs across most banks when comparing 2024 annual reports to 2025 mid-year reports, with China Merchants Bank decreasing from 1.44% to 1.18% [6][12]. - This decline reflects a reduction in liability cost pressures for the banking industry, positively impacting net interest margins and profitability [6][12]. - However, lower deposit costs must align with asset yield and risk management capabilities, as a healthy bank seeks to balance these factors [12]. Group 3: Challenges for Joint-Stock and Regional Banks - Joint-stock banks and regional commercial banks generally face higher average deposit costs, often exceeding 2%, which can challenge their net interest margin management [5][11]. - National joint-stock banks like Industrial Bank and Minsheng Bank have costs ranging from 2.11% to 2.18%, while some regional banks experience even greater cost pressures [5][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, with a focus on structural monetary policy support for high-quality economic development [15][19] - The central bank has implemented a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in various structural monetary policy tool rates, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance [15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing for future policy implementations, particularly in relation to government bond issuance peaks and the maturity schedule of high-interest bank deposits [15] Summary by Sections 1. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report notes a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in structural monetary policy tool rates, with a focus on supporting key areas through increased re-lending [15] - Future attention is directed towards December economic data and January LPR [22] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted a total of 9,515 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 9,741 billion yuan [16] - The report highlights that the funding rates remained stable, with expectations of slight increases due to tax payments and government bond net repayments [16] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The report indicates that the total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) is 19.09 trillion yuan, with an average issuance rate of 1.65% [20] - The report also notes that there were no commercial bank bond issuances during the period, with a total outstanding commercial bank bond size of 3.38 trillion yuan [20]

Core Insights - The globalization of Chinese brands is accelerating, with brand value assessment becoming a strategic priority for sustainable development, shifting from an optional to a necessary approach for companies [2] - The GYBrand 2026 World Brand 500 list emphasizes a comprehensive evaluation system based on brand value, financial performance, brand strength, contribution, and sustainability [2] Group 1: Brand Rankings and Distribution - The 2026 GYBrand World Brand 500 includes brands from 33 countries, with a total value exceeding $14 trillion, representing a 7.11% increase from the previous year, and an average brand value of $28.544 billion [3] - The United States leads with 180 companies, while China ranks second with 78 companies, accounting for 15.6% of the total list [3] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou show significant brand concentration, with "Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou" collectively contributing 60 companies to the list [3][12] Group 2: Chinese Brand Performance - In 2026, 78 Chinese companies made the GYBrand list, with a total brand value of $22,764 billion, representing 15.9% of the global total, and an average brand value of approximately $292 million [12] - Beijing is the leading city with 38 companies and a total brand value of $12,178 billion, while Shenzhen has 7 companies, all from the private sector [13] - The presence of state-owned enterprises in Beijing highlights its advantages in innovation resources and industrial clusters, reinforcing its leading position in brand value [13] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Chinese brands face a "large but weak" dilemma, needing to transition from scale expansion to value deepening to enhance brand strength [16] - Comparisons with the Fortune Global 500 reveal that while China has a significant number of companies, their average revenue and profit lag behind those of U.S. companies [16] - The ongoing technological revolution and industrial transformation present new opportunities for Chinese brands to enhance their value through innovation, emotional connection, and cultural empowerment [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - December saw a record high in both cross-border net inflow and net settlement scale, with the bank's foreign-related payment surplus reaching 801.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 400.2 billion CNY [14][17] - The arbitrage trading return rate declined significantly, influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar against the offshore RMB, which fell by 1.32% to 6.98 [14][17] - The cross-border funds' net inflow in December was the highest on record, driven by a substantial increase in merchandise trade surplus [17][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: December Cross-Border Net Inflow and Settlement - The bank's foreign-related payment surplus in December was 801.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 400.2 billion CNY, primarily due to a significant expansion in merchandise trade surplus [17] - The net settlement in December reached a historical high of 705.5 billion CNY, with a month-on-month increase of 589.1 billion CNY and a year-on-year increase of 780.6 billion CNY [31] Section 2: Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in RMB terms fell by 1.43 percentage points to -1.77% due to the marginal appreciation of the RMB [14][17] - The 10Y China-US interest rate spread widened by 15 basis points, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 16 basis points [14] Section 3: Cross-Border Funds and M2 Liquidity - Cross-border funds contributed significantly to M2 liquidity, with a total of 774.4 billion CNY added, reflecting an increase of 863.2 billion CNY month-on-month [55] - The cross-border funds' inflow had a pull rate of 0.10% on M2, indicating a continued upward trend [55]

Core Insights - The banking sector has shown weak relative and absolute returns recently, primarily due to market funds shifting towards high-beta and small-cap stocks, leading to a diversion of funds from low-beta banking stocks [18] - The report suggests that the banking sector is likely to experience further internal differentiation in 2026, with larger banks and wealth management banks expected to outperform [18] - Core stock recommendations include Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, Qingdao Bank, and large state-owned banks [18] Section Summaries 1. Current Observation: A-shares in Banking Decline, H-shares Outperform - During the observation period from January 12 to January 16, 2026, the banking sector (CITIC first-level industry) declined by 2.6%, ranking 25th among all industries and underperforming the Wind All A index [16] - The performance of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with declines of -2.16%, -3.33%, -1.92%, and -2.24% respectively [16] - H-shares of banks increased by 2.4%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, while A-share banks showed mixed results [16] 2. Investment Recommendations: Beta Elasticity Dominates Recent Sector Performance - The report indicates that the recent downturn in the banking sector has solidified valuations, with limited further downside expected [18] - The anticipated trends include a shift towards non-bank financial services, wealth management, and disintermediation, with large banks expected to gain an advantage [18] 3. Sector Performance: Banking Sector Decline, Weekly Turnover Rate Increases - The banking sector's weekly turnover rate increased to 1.61%, ranking last among 30 CITIC first-level industries [42] - As of January 16, 2026, the banking sector's latest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 6.89x, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 0.67x, indicating valuations at historical average levels [42] 4. Individual Stock Performance: A-share Banks Overall Decline, City Commercial Banks Relatively Stable - Among A-share banks, Ningbo Bank saw a rise of 4.09%, while Beijing Bank, Huaxia Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank experienced declines of 4.90%, 4.73%, and 4.33% respectively [16] - In H-shares, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank increased by 3.59% and 3.16%, while China Everbright Bank and Chongqing Bank saw declines of 6.14% and 3.10% [16] 5. Convertible Bond Performance: Average Price Increase - The average price of banking convertible bonds rose by 0.06%, underperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 1.02 percentage points [17] - The top-performing convertible bonds included Chongqing Bank's convertible bond (+0.58%) and Industrial Bank's convertible bond (+0.18%) [17] 6. Profit Forecast Tracking: 2025 Profit Growth Expectations Remain Stable - For the current period, three banks (China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Hangzhou Bank) showed changes in the consensus profit growth expectations for 2025 [17] - The net profit growth and revenue growth expectations for A-share banks in 2025 adjusted slightly downwards by -0.08 percentage points and -0.03 percentage points respectively [17]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the financial industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors and companies within the industry [3][21]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a decline this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points. The banking sector saw a decline of 3.03%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points [1][9]. - The report highlights a structural interest rate cut by the central bank, which is expected to impact various financial sectors, particularly banks and insurance companies. The insurance sector is viewed as being in a critical window for performance and valuation recovery [3][21]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to stabilize the derivatives market, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized and compliant brokerage firms [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.63%, with the securities, insurance, and diversified financial indices down by 2.21%, 3.59%, and 1.83% respectively [1][9]. - The banking sector's performance was notably poor, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 2.20%, 4.08%, 2.40%, and 2.20% respectively [1][9]. 2. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index fell by 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. The report indicates that regulatory cooling measures have created short-term pressure on the insurance sector, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to asset growth and interest margin recovery [1][13][15]. - Key companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and New China Life are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and recovery potential [3][16]. 3. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 2.21%, with the report emphasizing the potential benefits of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the derivatives market. The focus is on larger, well-capitalized firms that can navigate the evolving regulatory landscape [2][17]. - Recommendations include major brokerages like Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in profitability and valuation [2][18]. 4. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index fell by 3.03%, with the central bank's recent interest rate cut expected to support the sector's performance in the long run. The report suggests that banks may see a gradual recovery in net interest income and profitability [3][21][22]. - Specific banks such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, particularly those with previously undervalued positions [3][22].

Group 1: Key Meetings and Policies - Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng met with UBS CEO Ralph Hamers, expressing hope for UBS to better serve Chinese companies going global and promote Shanghai to global partners [1] - The Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau, in collaboration with law enforcement, has launched 15 nationwide campaigns to combat "black and gray" financial activities, resulting in the resolution of 117 cases and the arrest of over 370 suspects [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has adopted a "zero tolerance" policy towards violations, issuing over 270 disciplinary actions and implementing regulatory measures over 330 times to maintain market order [3] Group 2: Financial Developments - As of January 11, 2026, the Shanghai branch of China Construction Bank has managed personal financial assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan, serving 21 million individual clients [4] - The first non-directional public REITs expansion was launched on January 12, 2026, marking a significant innovation in the REITs market and promoting quality rental housing assets [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange emphasized the construction of secure and efficient financial infrastructure to support national strategies and improve market services during its 2026 work meeting [6] Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have increased the minimum margin requirement for financing from 80% to 100%, effective January 19, 2026, to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments [7] - The People's Bank of China held a work meeting emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development [8] - The Shanghai Insurance Association and the Shanghai Judicial Appraisal Association issued guidelines to standardize property insurance claims processes, aiming to improve industry governance [9] Group 4: Innovations in Financial Services - China Construction Bank's Shanghai branch launched a "coffee production internet service platform" to facilitate cross-border trade, enhancing efficiency and security for traders [9] - China Pacific Insurance has upgraded its strategy to address the challenges posed by an aging population, focusing on a comprehensive ecosystem covering elderly care, health, and rehabilitation [10] - Star Ring Fusion completed a 1 billion yuan Series A financing round, setting a record for private nuclear fusion companies in China [11] Group 5: Green Finance Initiatives - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank issued its first biodiversity loan of 7 million yuan to support agricultural technology development, reflecting its commitment to green finance [12] - Bank of China Shanghai branch efficiently processed a qualification application for a Hong Kong metal trader in just 15 days, showcasing its expertise in cross-border finance [13] - The Shanghai branch of the Bank of Communications collaborated with the Shanghai Data Exchange to establish an online data transaction settlement service system [14] Group 6: International Trade Support - The Export-Import Bank of China Shanghai branch provided customized financial support for a solid waste enterprise's offshore trade, demonstrating its role in stabilizing cross-border supply chains [16]

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank (CCB) is currently experiencing a strong upward momentum in its stock price, recently stabilizing around the key psychological level of 8 HKD, with market speculation about potential policies to boost the real estate sector in mainland China providing a positive atmosphere for bank stocks [1][4]. Technical Analysis - CCB's stock price has shown a strong performance, breaking through the significant psychological barrier of 8 HKD and reaching the upper band of the Bollinger Bands on January 15, indicating strong buying power [1]. - The stock is currently above the 10-day moving average (7.72 HKD) and the 30-day moving average (7.68 HKD), with these averages forming a bullish arrangement, providing solid support [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, indicating that market strength remains robust [1]. Short-term Indicators - Several oscillators indicate that the stock is in an "overbought" state, with 8 neutral signals suggesting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces at the current price level [2]. - Key resistance is now at 8.25 HKD, while the first support level is at 7.65 HKD, which is near the 10-day moving average and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately 7.77 HKD) [2]. Market Dynamics and Institutional Views - CCB has attracted significant market attention, with large transactions recorded shortly after the market opened on January 16, totaling 102 million HKD [4]. - Goldman Sachs has given CCB's H-shares a "Buy" rating with a target price of 8.39 HKD, while independent analyst Yu Junlong has a more aggressive target of 9 HKD, indicating a consensus on valuation and upside potential, albeit with slight differences in specific targets [4]. Derivative Products Review - Recent performance in the structured products market has demonstrated the efficiency of derivatives in capturing the underlying stock trend, with related products showing returns significantly exceeding the stock's increase of 2.90% over two days [4]. - Specific call options, such as UBS's call option (23972) and Bank of China's call option (23426), have shown substantial gains due to their inherent leverage [4]. Deployment Strategies - For bullish strategies, investors anticipating a challenge at the 8.25 HKD resistance may consider call options or bull certificates, such as Bank of China's call option (23426) with a strike price of 8.88 HKD, offering approximately 8.7 times leverage [7]. - For bearish strategies, investors expecting a price resistance at 8.25 HKD may look at put options or bear certificates, such as Bank of China's put option (17641) with a strike price of 7.1 HKD, providing effective hedging against potential declines [8].