Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market failed to maintain its previous day's gains, with all three major indices declining. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.61% at 24,325.4 points, with a total turnover of HKD 261.73 billion [1] - Industry expert Zhang Yidong from Industrial Securities predicts that the Hong Kong stock market will experience a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025, with potential new highs in the autumn [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Kuaishou-W (01024) saw a moderate increase of 3.26%, closing at HKD 61.75, contributing 9.26 points to the Hang Seng Index. CICC estimates Kuaishou AI's valuation could reach USD 6 billion due to its technological leadership and growth potential [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances include China Hongqiao (01378) up 4.2% to HKD 17.88, and Chow Tai Fook (01929) up 3.72% to HKD 13.4. Conversely, China Shenhua (01088) fell 4.25% to HKD 30.4, negatively impacting the index [2] Sector Highlights - The large technology stocks showed mixed results, with Kuaishou rising over 3% while Alibaba fell 2.86%. The cryptocurrency sector saw significant activity, with Victory Securities surging 150% before a sharp decline [3] - Precious metals stocks performed well, with Shandong Gold (01787) rising 6.7% to HKD 28.65, and China Hongqiao (01378) up 4.2% [4] - The military sector saw gains, with China Shipbuilding Industry (00317) up 6.16% and Aerospace Science and Industry (00031) up 4.88%, driven by upcoming military parades showcasing domestic equipment [6] New Listings and IPOs - Saint Bella (02508) had a strong debut, rising 33.74% to HKD 8.8, with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 630 million. The company is recognized as Asia's largest postpartum care group [11] - Chow Tai Fook (06168) also performed well, increasing 25% to HKD 30, with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 1.193 billion [13]

首映礼现场，《新世界加载中》总导演陈翔宇、可灵AI产品及运营负责人李杨、快手星芒短剧业务负责人张兰兰展开交流。受访者供图 陈翔宇表示，AIGC内容目前还无法与实拍内容的结构百分百相似。他这样理解AI对影视行业的降本增效，类似于"花小钱办大事"：假设AI能做到以30%或 50%的制作时间、15%至40%的成本，达到70%的实拍效果，就有价值。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者韦英姿）6月25日，由快手可灵AI（人工智能）与星芒短剧联合出品、异类Outliers团队制作的AI单元故事集《新世界加载中》在北 京举行首映礼。AIGC（生成式人工智能）内容商业化起步在即，可灵AI超级创作者、《新世界加载中》总导演、异类Outliers创始人陈翔宇向新京报贝壳财 经记者表示，行业当前处于启蒙阶段，暂时还没有形成完善的商业模式，近期异类团队也在做一些新的尝试和探索，包括IP（知识产权）层面的打造。在他 看来，这是整个行业要去面临的事情。 技术注定带来商业化变革。据可灵AI产品及运营负责人李杨观察，相当一部分AI创作者为爱发电。"可灵与AI创作者合作是希望能帮助更多创作者找到广 告、宣传片等商业化机会。创作者活得好，行业才能共同建立起 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has issued a report indicating that Kuaishou's Keling AI is leading in data observation, computing power, and AI capabilities, which accelerates monetization and presents multiple competitive advantages [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Keling AI has a differentiated pricing strategy and a large total addressable market (TAM) [1] - The online marketing revenue for Kuaishou is expected to increase year-on-year in the second half of the year due to various driving factors [1] - Kuaishou's e-commerce market share is expanding, with a more rational approach to the 618 promotion compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The report states that 70% of Keling AI's revenue comes from subscriptions by professional consumers, while 30% comes from commercial clients through APIs [1] - Geographically, 70% of the revenue is derived from overseas markets, and 30% from domestic markets [1] Group 3: Market Potential - The potential market for video content production is estimated to reach $120 billion globally, distributed across advertising, drama and film, animation, and short videos [1] - Keling AI reduces video production costs, and its digital human solutions help advertisers and merchants allocate resources more effectively, especially during off-peak seasons [1]

香港交易所信息显示， 贝莱德在 快手-W的持股比例于06月19日从4.78%升至5.12%。 ...

首先，以高热度事件点燃声量，第一时间吸引用户关注。 暑期档，历来是各大品牌兵家必争之地。 横跨三个月的时间长度，学生和家庭群体的强烈出行及消费欲望，往往能给酒旅、餐饮、购物、文化娱乐、教培等各个行业添一把盛夏烈火。以素来最火爆 的文旅消费为例，众信旅游零售数据显示，截至6月中旬，今年暑期出游人次已同比增长70%、消费GMV增长超80%。 回顾近些年暑期战况，品牌借力短视频、社交平台营销放大声量、促进互动、强化内容优势，已成为拉动生意额增长的不二之策。近日，快手磁力引擎发布 了「暑期内容营销招商通案」，提供覆盖声量场、互动场、内容场和生意场的组合营销方案，打造暑期营销IP版图。 快手拥有超4.5亿活跃用户，这些"老铁"们来自五湖四海、分布在各个年龄层，全方位覆盖宅家追剧、社交购物、旅行出游等各类消费场景，是品牌梦寐以 求的"宝库"。来到2025年，暑期品牌营销呈现出什么新方向？品牌和用户的关注点又发生了什么变化？快手这一套营销方案或许能给我们提供一些参考。 接地气的主题和内容风格、覆盖面广且个性多元的创作者，向来是快手内容生态最大特点。此次暑期档，快手将发挥并放大这一优势，相继推出《乐过四季 （第二季）》、《快 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou has fully launched its AI model-driven recommendation system, OneRec, which is the first industrial-grade recommendation solution in the industry, setting a new standard globally [1][15]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - Kuaishou's technology has reached a top-tier level, particularly in video generation models [2]. - The company has made significant underlying technological advancements that surpass initial perceptions of it being merely a short video platform [3]. Group 2: Recommendation System Overview - Recommendation systems are a major technological innovation of the mobile internet era, utilized by popular platforms like Kuaishou, Douyin, and Pinduoduo [4]. - Traditional recommendation systems typically rely on user-based collaborative filtering and content-based collaborative filtering [4][6]. Group 3: Challenges in Traditional Systems - Traditional multi-stage recommendation systems face issues such as low overall GPU utilization and inefficiencies due to independent model operations [10][11]. - The complexity of user interests and the conflicting goals of increasing click-through rates while maintaining content diversity lead to decreased recommendation accuracy [9][10]. Group 4: OneRec's Innovations - OneRec shifts from a multi-stage filtering approach to an end-to-end model that directly generates a list of recommended videos based on user interests [16]. - The system employs a multi-modal semantic tokenizer to deeply understand video content beyond surface-level tags, enhancing content comprehension [21][24]. Group 5: User Modeling and Interest Tracking - OneRec integrates user behavior over time to create a comprehensive "interest sequence," allowing for more accurate recommendations that adapt to changing user preferences [28][30]. - The model uses deep neural networks to automatically learn complex interest changes from large datasets, improving recommendation accuracy [30]. Group 6: Recommendation Generation - The system utilizes an encoder-decoder structure, where the encoder compresses user interest trajectories into vectors, and the decoder generates a sequence of recommended content [32][33]. - The introduction of a Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture enhances model capacity and efficiency, allowing for personalized recommendations while maintaining content diversity [34][36]. Group 7: Reinforcement Learning Integration - OneRec incorporates a reward mechanism using reinforcement learning to align user preferences with recommendation outcomes, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the system [38][44]. - The model's training includes various reward signals to ensure a balanced distribution of content types and to adapt to real-world business complexities [41][42]. Group 8: Performance Metrics - During the testing phase, OneRec demonstrated performance metrics comparable to existing complex systems, with user engagement metrics such as watch time and user lifecycle showing positive growth [46][47]. - In local life scenarios, OneRec achieved a 21% increase in GMV and significant growth in order volume and new customer acquisition [48]. Group 9: Future Considerations - Despite its advancements, OneRec still faces challenges related to inference speed, resource consumption, and further optimization of the reward mechanism [49]. - The introduction of OneRec marks a new phase in recommendation systems, aligning them with the latest advancements in AI and machine learning [49][50].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou Technology is Equal-weight [6] Core Insights - The competition in the AI video generation sector has intensified with the launch of ByteDance's Seedance 1.0 pro, which has achieved the top ranking in both text-to-video and image-to-video categories, outperforming competitors like Google's Veo 3.0 and Kuaishou's Kling 2.0 [2][3] - The pricing of Seedance 1.0 pro is competitive at Rmb3.67 for a 5-second video, which is 60-70% lower than similar market offerings, and it generates videos relatively quickly at approximately 40 seconds for a 5-second output [2][3] - The report suggests that while the recent releases from ByteDance and Minimax could significantly increase competition, it is premature to determine the long-term market leader in AI video generation [3] - Kuaishou's Kling model has shown strong financial performance year-to-date, which has positively influenced its share price, but there is a caution against overvaluing Kling before the competitive landscape stabilizes [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AI video generation market is experiencing heightened competition with new entrants and advancements in technology [1][3] Company Performance - Kuaishou Technology's Kling model is expected to exceed revenue guidance, reflecting strong market demand [4] - Financial projections for Kuaishou indicate a revenue increase from Rmb127 billion in 2024 to Rmb165 billion by 2027, with EBITDA growing from Rmb20 billion to Rmb37 billion in the same period [6] Valuation Metrics - The price target for Kuaishou Technology is set at HK$60.00, with a slight upside of 1% from the current price of HK$59.40 [6] - Key financial metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 11.2 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.1 for the same year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou has shut down its short drama mini-program business, reflecting a strategic shift towards native content and indicating a broader decline in the short drama mini-program model [1][4][5] Industry Trends - The closure of the mini-programs highlights a trend of diminishing returns for the short drama model, which was once popular but is now facing challenges from major platforms, the rise of free short dramas, and stricter regulations [4][14] - The short drama mini-programs, which thrived in a less regulated environment, are being replaced by more competitive platforms and advanced business models that offer better viewing experiences [14][20] Market Dynamics - The free short drama market is reshaping user viewing habits, with free model users increasing from 11% in January 2024 to 50% by October 2024, surpassing paid users [8] - Platforms like Hongguo are experiencing rapid growth, with monthly active users exceeding 173 million by March 2025, closing the gap with long video platforms [8][11] - Douyin has significantly increased its investment in native short dramas, with the number of accounts rising from 407 in July 2024 to 2,226 by May 2025, and the number of short dramas published increasing from 2,750 to 15,962 in the same period [11] Business Model Evolution - The emergence of membership-based free viewing models on major platforms like iQIYI and Tencent Video is creating a unique commercial landscape, where short dramas are often available for free to members [13] - The traditional mini-program model, reliant on external traffic and in-app purchases, is losing ground to integrated platforms that enhance user experience through seamless content distribution [14][20] Regulatory Impact - The tightening of regulations by the National Radio and Television Administration has further marginalized the mini-program short dramas, as new rules restrict the promotion of unlicensed content [20] - The shift from a growth phase to a more regulated and refined operational stage in the short drama industry indicates a significant transformation in business logic driven by user preferences, platform strategies, and regulatory frameworks [20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the discretionary cosmetics industry Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival showed robust growth, with total sales across integrated e-commerce, instant retail, and community group buying reaching 855.6 billion yuan, 29.6 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 18.7%, and -9.1% [1][17] - The overall transaction volume of major platforms increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with Taobao/Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou accounting for 48.7%, 19.3%, 18.4%, 10.1%, and 3.6% of GMV respectively [1][17] - The beauty category on major e-commerce platforms achieved a GMV of 60-70 billion yuan during the 618 period, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the 618 festival from May 13 to June 18, 2025, reached 855.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% across major platforms [1][17] - Tmall's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10% year-on-year, with 453 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% increase [2][18] Platform Insights - Douyin saw over 60,000 brands doubling their transaction amounts year-on-year, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [2][18] - JD.com led the industry with over 100% growth in user orders, achieving a record high in daily active users [2][18] Market Share and Brand Rankings - Tmall maintained a 41.3% market share in the beauty category, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD.com at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][19] - The top brands in the beauty and skincare category on Tmall included Pechoin, Lancôme, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Skinceuticals, with Skinceuticals entering the top five for the first time [1][19] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the makeup and perfume category was intense, with YSL topping the list, followed by Caitang and Mao Ge Ping [1][19] - On Douyin, the beauty and skincare category saw 34 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a significant increase of 88.9% year-on-year [1][20]

Core Insights - The user base for micro-short dramas in China is projected to reach 662 million by December 2024, accounting for 59.7% of the total internet users, with a market size of 50.4 billion yuan, surpassing the total box office revenue for films in the same year [2][11]. Group 1: Industry Developments - Kuaishou has announced the shutdown of its short drama mini-program, confirming the decision through internal communications [3][6]. - This is not Kuaishou's first action against the short drama category, as it previously removed nearly 100 non-compliant micro-short dramas and over 150 accounts for violations in May and June [5][6]. - The rationale behind Kuaishou's decision to close the mini-program is attributed to the rise of free short dramas and the decline of paid options, aiming for content quality improvement and specialized operation in the short drama ecosystem [6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Tencent has launched its own short drama mini-programs, including "Mars Watch Drama" and a new "Short Drama" program, emphasizing free access to high-quality content [7][10]. - Tencent's strategy includes leveraging its vast user base on WeChat to facilitate social sharing and content discovery, aiming to capture market share in the competitive short drama space [10]. - The partnership with the reading group, which plans to upgrade its short drama offerings, provides Tencent with a wealth of quality story materials, enhancing its competitive edge [10]. Group 3: User Behavior and Preferences - A survey in Ningbo revealed that 81.15% of respondents have watched short dramas, with average daily viewing times concentrated between 10-30 minutes, indicating a preference for consuming content during fragmented time [12]. - Approximately 31% of respondents have paid for short drama content, with average monthly spending between 10-50 yuan, highlighting a willingness to invest in quality content [14]. - The core audience for short dramas primarily consists of Generation Z and working professionals, who value content quality and innovation, steering clear of low-quality, homogeneous offerings [14].