Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Hong Kong airline stocks have collectively declined, with China Eastern Airlines dropping nearly 3% and recording three consecutive days of losses, while China Southern Airlines and Air China also experienced declines of over 2% [1] - The cancellation rate for flights between China and Japan is reported to be 40.4%, with approximately 2,195 flights canceled for January, and all scheduled flights on 46 routes between China and Japan being canceled in the next two weeks [1] - Major airlines operating China-Japan routes, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, have announced related ticket refund and change policies, with expectations of a peak in ticket refunds continuing until the end of December [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes China Eastern Airlines at 5.030 with a decline of 2.71%, Air China at 6.760 with a decline of 2.31%, and China Southern Airlines at 5.510 with a decline of 2.13% [2] - Cathay Pacific is down by 1.16% at 12.730, while Meilan Airport has decreased by 0.28% to 10.770 [2]

Group 1 - The aviation industry is experiencing a surge in international flight openings as companies prepare for the year-end travel peak, with Shenzhen Airlines launching a new route from Shenzhen to Melbourne, marking the 14th international passenger route for Shenzhen Airport this year [1] - Shenzhen Airport has seen a significant increase in passenger traffic, with over 6 million people passing through in the first 11 months of the year, surpassing the total of 5.5 million for the entire previous year, indicating a historical high for the same period [1] - The new international routes are expected to attract more travelers during the upcoming New Year holiday, with the airport's international and regional passenger destinations exceeding 60 [1] Group 2 - Several airlines have recently launched new international routes, including China Southern Airlines with routes to Madrid and Darwin, Hainan Airlines to Ho Chi Minh City, and China Eastern Airlines to Auckland and Buenos Aires, reflecting a strategic move to capitalize on the year-end travel season [2] - Online travel platforms report a 25% year-on-year increase in international flight bookings, with the number of reachable cities globally increasing by 149 compared to the same period last year [2] - There is a notable increase in flight bookings for popular destinations such as Egypt, Spain, and New Zealand, with some routes experiencing a doubling in ticket reservations [2]

Group 1 - As of December 22, 59 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with Yucheng Logistics (08489), Kangqiao Yuelife (02205), and Yaju Investment Holdings (08426) leading the high rate at 95.40%, 28.00%, and 21.54% respectively [1] - Yucheng Logistics closed at 0.330, with a peak price of 0.340, achieving a high rate of 95.40% [1] - Kangqiao Yuelife closed at 1.370, with a peak price of 1.600, achieving a high rate of 28.00% [1] - Yaju Investment Holdings closed at 0.345, with a peak price of 0.395, achieving a high rate of 21.54% [1] Group 2 - The 52-week low rankings included Yili Holdings (00076) with a closing price of 0.138 and a low rate of -15.63% [2] - Tianda Pharmaceutical (00455) closed at 0.103, with a low rate of -8.74% [2] - China Aoyuan (03883) reached a low of 0.080, with a low rate of -7.14% [2] - Minsheng International (00938) closed at 0.325, with a low rate of -6.67% [2]

Shipping Industry - Crude oil freight rates have decreased from high levels, with mixed changes in long-distance shipping rates. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) was reported at 2280.86 points on December 18, down 1.9% from December 11. The VLCC market is experiencing a cautious sentiment as shipowners await cargo for early January loading from Saudi Arabia. The overall available shipping capacity is sufficient, and charterers are managing shipping schedules to avoid overheating the market [3][4]. - In the European shipping market, the transport demand remains stable, with a slight decrease in market rates. On December 19, the market rate for shipping from Shanghai to European ports was $1,533 per TEU, down 0.3% from the previous period. Conversely, in the US market, shipping demand remains steady, with spot market booking prices increasing. On December 19, the rates for shipping from Shanghai to the West and East coasts of the US were $1,992 per FEU and $2,846 per FEU, respectively, up 11.9% and 7.3% [3][4]. Aviation Industry - The world's first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft, the Lan Ying R6000, has completed its first test flight in Sichuan. Additionally, China Southern Airlines has partnered with Alibaba Cloud to launch the first aviation safety large model, "Tian Dun" version 1.0, focusing on flight training, flight warning, and fault repair, featuring multi-modal risk identification and intelligent fault handling capabilities [3][4]. Logistics and New Transportation Models - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, marking it as a special customs supervision area. As of December 18, all eight open ports and ten "second-line ports" have begun operations. In the first 11 months of 2025, the domestic express delivery business volume reached 1.8074 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with business revenue of 135.506 billion yuan, up 7.1% [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending stocks such as COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics. It also highlights investment opportunities related to the construction of hydropower stations in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulimin Transportation [5][6]. - The company emphasizes investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [6]. - There are also recommendations for investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, including Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [7]. - In the e-commerce and express delivery sector, the company recommends SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express, while also suggesting investment in the aviation industry, including China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and others [8].

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines' stock price has shown a significant increase this year, with a year-to-date rise of 16.18% and a 25.46% increase over the past 60 days, despite a recent decline of 2.08% on December 22 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 22, the stock price was reported at 7.54 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 198 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.19%, leading to a total market capitalization of 136.63 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a 8.18% increase over the last 5 trading days and an 8.49% increase over the last 20 trading days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, China Southern Airlines achieved a revenue of 137.67 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.31 billion CNY, which is a 17.40% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 4.76% to 133,300, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - The company has distributed a total of 6.63 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 4.32 million shares to 586 million shares, while China Securities Finance Corporation maintained its holdings at 320 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The global first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft has completed its maiden flight, and domestic express delivery volume has increased by 14.9% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [2][3] - Crude oil shipping rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported 2280.86 points, down 1.9% from December 11 [3][14] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, marking it as a special customs supervision area, with express delivery volume reaching 1807.4 billion pieces, a 14.9% increase year-on-year [3][21] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil shipping rates have decreased, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The VLCC market is experiencing a wait-and-see attitude as shipping owners maintain a strong sentiment despite a high number of bids [3][14] - The first 6-ton tilt-rotor aircraft, "Lan Ying R6000," developed by Shenzhen United Aircraft Technology Co., has completed its first test flight, enhancing the low-altitude economy and local industrial chain [3][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has started full island closure, with significant logistics policy benefits and a notable increase in express delivery volume [3][21] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index reported 6369.00 points, up 11.3% year-on-year [26] - Domestic freight flight numbers have decreased year-on-year, while international flights have increased significantly [27] - The express delivery business volume in November 2025 increased by 5.00% year-on-year, while the total express delivery volume for the first 11 months reached 1807.41 billion pieces, a 14.90% increase [46] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Pay attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy sector, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Look into investment opportunities in the cruise and water ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - Monitor investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Focus on investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation Holding, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

Core Insights - The conference "Innovation Leading the Way: AI Empowerment" was held by China Southern Airlines (CSA) in Guangzhou, showcasing the latest AI innovations in the aviation sector [1][4] - CSA introduced several AI-driven solutions, including "Smart Travel Butler," "Tianji Predictive Model," "Tiansu Aviation Solver," and "Tiandun Safety Model," highlighting advancements in flight operation prediction, decision optimization, and smart services [1][3] Group 1 - The "Smart Travel Butler" provides a comprehensive intelligent service for travelers, including pre-trip planning, real-time responses during the journey, and emotional support post-trip [3] - Travelers can perform various operations such as ticket purchasing, check-in, cancellations, and seat selection through simple natural language input in the CSA app [3] - The service also integrates features like "post-trip fun photo sharing" and "service function navigation," along with indoor smart navigation at airports to enhance the "one-click boarding" experience [3]

Group 1: Airline Industry - Goldman Sachs forecasts that international demand will rise while supply constraints persist, leading to an expected return on equity (ROE) of 22% for airlines by 2027, surpassing the industry cycle average [1] - Despite risks associated with Japan in the first half of the year, the outlook for airline stocks remains positive, with further upward potential for ticket prices [1] - Preferred stocks include China National Aviation Holding (601111) H-shares (00753) and China Eastern Airlines (600115) A-shares (600115.SH) [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - The firm adopts a more cautious stance on container shipping due to supply recovery, which is expected to compress industry profit margins [1] - New ship orders this year have exceeded expectations, resulting in an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33% [1] - Potential reopening of the Red Sea may pose additional downside risks, potentially releasing about 10% of effective capacity, which could lead to China COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) (01919, 601919.SH) entering a cash consumption state [1] Group 3: Oil Tankers - The outlook for oil tankers remains optimistic, with expectations of rising spot freight rates during the sustained upward cycle in 2026 [1] - The oil reserve process in China may take up to a year, longer than the market's three-month expectation, while effective capacity is predicted to grow by only 1% [1] - China COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026) (01138, 600026.SH) is expected to benefit due to its significant exposure to oil tankers and the Chinese import market [1] Group 4: Stock Ratings and Target Prices - China National Aviation (00753): Buy, target price raised from 7.3 to 8.2 HKD [2] - China Eastern Airlines (00670): Buy, target price raised from 3.7 to 5.1 HKD [2] - China Southern Airlines (01055): Buy, target price raised from 4.6 to 5.8 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Energy (01138): Buy, target price raised from 8.8 to 10.8 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Ports (01199): Buy, target price raised from 6 to 6.8 HKD [2] - China Merchants Port (00144): Neutral, target price raised from 14.2 to 15.7 HKD [2] - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): Neutral to Sell, target price lowered from 12.5 to 10.4 HKD [2] - Meilan Airport (00357): Sell, target price raised from 7.6 to 8.4 HKD [2]

Group 1: Airline Industry Performance - In November 2025, the six major listed airlines in China achieved a total passenger transport volume of approximately 48.615 million, representing an 18.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1] - China National Airlines led with a passenger transport volume of 13.0717 million, including 1.6374 million on international routes, which is a 19.7% increase from 2019 [1] - The international routes became a key growth driver, with a total of 6.305 million passengers transported, marking a 16.6% increase compared to 2019 [1] Group 2: Capacity and Load Factor - The overall load factor for the six major airlines remained high, with Spring Airlines leading at 92.3%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from 2019 [2] - Other airlines also reported healthy load factors: China Eastern Airlines at 87.4% (up 7.2 percentage points), China Southern Airlines at 86.3%, and China National Airlines at 83.3% [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategy - The aviation industry is experiencing a clear pattern of "overall recovery with internal differentiation," with hub airlines leveraging their network advantages for steady growth [3] - Private airlines like Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines are adopting flexible strategies to penetrate international markets, showcasing significant results [3] - The competition is shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement, indicating a transition towards high-quality development in the aviation sector [3] Group 4: Airbus A320 Production Milestone - Airbus delivered its 800th A320 series aircraft from the Tianjin assembly line, marking a significant milestone in its operations in China [5] - The A321neo aircraft, received by China National Airlines, features advanced engines and a comfortable cabin layout, reflecting Airbus's commitment to enhancing its production capabilities in China [5] - The establishment of a second A320 assembly line in Tianjin further strengthens Airbus's global production network, which includes ten assembly lines worldwide [5][8] Group 5: Sustainable Aviation Initiatives - The A320neo series aircraft is designed to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% compared to previous generations [6] - Airbus aims for all its aircraft to operate on up to 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, highlighting its commitment to sustainability in aviation [6] Group 6: Localization and Global Integration - The delivery of the 800th A320 aircraft signifies China's evolution from a market and component supplier to a core assembly and delivery center in the global aviation manufacturing landscape [8] - This development underscores the quality and efficiency of China's high-end manufacturing system, aligning with international standards in aircraft manufacturing [8]